[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

yeah uh.  don't they just go back to fiat when scared?  Why go to something more volatile and likely to die than bitcoin when you are scared of bitcoin?

Depends how high their understanding is. I was a little bit afraid of Bitcoin today, and bought XMR and felt better.

Surely the majority is not there yet. Or will not be. Only 0.01% of the world actively uses any crypto.

For once you get out of fiat, there's no going back.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero has still a lot of volatility and it is a sign of immature coin.
Swedish Krona has indeed a lot of volatility compared with USD/eur for instance - still sudden -10 % red candles you see very seldon unless you do not take a longer perspective.

I definetely will be buyer if the fiat that I sent today in the morning clears tomorrow and the price is still low - do not get me wrong.
I try to buy low and try to sell later higher (although I am too small fish to be able to support the markets with market making - being a market maker you need a significiant amount both currencies).

Especially if this is FUD that has been preached against XMR this volatility shouldn't even take place or it should have corrected fast. Even bitcoin corrects flash crashes relatively quick (even in matter of minutes/hours).
Still, bitcoin has way too much volatility for currency.

Please let's not compare Monero with currencies like Swedish Krona or Polish whatever.
Let's not compare it to other currencies but make it better.  

Focus should not be on what's already good but on what can be improved. Sorry Risto, I do not mean to be harsh. I respect you in many ways, but I think you should not focus on comparisons but improvements.
Of course when you sell a product you compare for the customer but for me you do not need to sell Monero - I am in already and considering buying more if the price is right when my fiat clears at bitstamp probably by tomorrow evening.

[darkota]

yeah uh.  don't they just go back to fiat when scared?  Why go to something more volatile and likely to die than bitcoin when you are scared of bitcoin?

Depends how high their understanding is. I was a little bit afraid of Bitcoin today, and bought XMR and felt better.

Surely the majority is not there yet. Or will not be. Only 0.01% of the world actively uses any crypto.

For once you get out of fiat, there's no going back.

This is exactly what I do.

I've been extremely busy, but I always find time to buy more Moneros here and there(Almost everyday), even more so if Bitcoin is looking especially bearish.

[DonYo]

I don't want to be alarmist but http://moneropool.com/ is reaching 50% of the hashrate...

[smooth]

I don't want to be alarmist but http://moneropool.com/ is reaching 50% of the hashrate...

Please post on the main thread and the mining thread

[rpietila]

My current understanding of the recent events



Prices are in daily GMT "average(high-low)" format, BTC in USD and XMR in ksat.




2014-9-17
BTC 454(466-444), XMR 387(420-361)

- Bitcoin price started falling and alts fell in sympathy.
- Initial reaction to BCX/Moneroman88 troll debate, despite BCX's attempt to "conclude it".

(the "debate" was that a certain troll not in any way related to Monero developers or community, had provoked BCX in private message to claim he has an exploit to Cryptonote code and that he will drive the shitcoin to the ground)

2014-9-18
BTC 429(453-408), XMR 361(389-340)

- Bitcoin further falls, so does XMR in a day full of 10k+ dumps. Aminorex calculates that the XMR fall is not attributed to a special "BCX scare" but is just a result of Bitcoin falling, which alts tend to magnify.

2014-9-19
BTC 400(429-379), XMR 366(390-351)

- Bitcoin capitulation. XMR does not make further lows, threats towards attacking the blockchain with the CN exploit seem to abate.

2014-9-20
BTC 414(431-390), XMR 325(380-281)

- BCX suddenly announces that he will attack XMR in 72 hours unless the exploit is found and fixed in that amount of time.
- A taskforce consisting of (in no particular order) AnonyMint, jl777, crypto_zoidberg, me, and some Monero developers, is formed to tackle the challenge catered to us.
- Price tanks.

2014-9-21 so far
BTC 404(414-395), XMR  318(345-286)

- Quiet. Developers are working to find possible attack vectors. The market thinks that the lethal attack materializes in 17% probability currently (calculating 300/360, the current price divided by the baseline).

[Cryptobro]

That's a reasonable summation.

I can't see a link between the BTC and XMR prices...is there one? (other than they're both in decline)

[oda.krell]

X-post from the Monero [ANN] thread.

Not technically on the topic of speculation, but addressed in particular at speculators, so I feel it is permissible to post it in here, considering the target audience of this thread...

If you are like me (the nasty investor/speculator type, who never bothered to get into mining :D), but you feel maybe now would be a good time to add that extra bit of hashing power to secure the Monero network (or at least make an attack slightly more expensive), then maybe this step-by-step guide to set up XMR mining via Amazon cloud computing might be interesting for you as well.

Re-posted with friendly permission of the guide's author, jwinterm:

(Requires Amazon EC2 account, hooked up to a credit card. Registration is easy, btw.)

So here goes (assuming you have your ec2 account all set up):
1) Click on EC2, and then click on Spot Requests under Instances on left sidebar.
2) Click Request Spot Instances blue button near top, and then click Community AMIs and search for XMRminer. Select XMRminer2.
3) For Instance Type, select GPU instances g2.2xlarge, click next and set your maximum price (kind of expensive now, need to do like $0.09 per hour, used to be more like $0.06).
4) Click Review and Launch and then click Launch. At this point you need to setup your ssh keys. I did this a while ago, so I don't remember exact details, but it should be pretty straightforward. Let me know if you have issues.
5) Make yourself a cup of tea and wait 30-120 seconds while your instance is prepared.
6) You'll need to ssh into your instance. On Linux you just put your ssh keys in ~/.ssh and set permissions for 400 (I think), and if you ssh from that folder, that's all you need to do. I think on Windows, using Putty, you need to maybe convert the key to putty's format using an extra putty tool. Let me know if you need additional help with this.
7) Click on Instances in the left sidebar, and you should see a g2.2xlarge instance with green circle that says running. Click that and then click Connect at the top, and it should give you your IP address to connect to with some instructions.
8) On Linux your ssh command should look like:

Code:

ssh -i aws1.pem ubuntu@54.191.192.111

Use ubuntu as user not root.
9) Maybe it's more like 180-300 seconds. Drink some tea while waiting.
10) When it prompts you to permanently add key, click "yes".
11) Now, you need to edit cpustart.sh and gpustart.sh in your home directory using either vi or nano, unless you want to mine to my XMR address ;) It looks like if you want to mine directly to exchange, just replace my XMR address in both files with YourExchangeXMRAddress.YourExchangePaymentID.
12) You need to run two commands, one to make gpuminer work, and other to make cpuminer much faster:

Code:

sudo ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sudo sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24

13) I just made another script called start.sh to launch both miners at once, and it seems to work. So do:

Code:

touch start.sh

then vi or nano start.sh and add:

Code:

#!/bin/bash
screen /home/ubuntu/cpustart.sh
screen /home/ubuntu/gpustart.sh

then:

Code:

chmod 755 start.sh

and then launch with:

Code:

sudo screen ./start.sh

You need the screen so that when you disconnect your ssh session, the miners keep mining.

That's it. You can disconnect and both miners should be hashing away. You can ssh back in and run

Code:

ps -A

and you should see minerd and ccminer listed in the processes somewhere near the bottom.

If you want to launch a shitload of instances, then obviously you want to automate this process and not do it manually every time. In this case, you need to make sure you edit the files so that they have your XMR address and not mine, and create the start.sh script in home directory, then edit the rc.local file by doing:

Code:

sudo nano /etc/rc.local

and add the following lines:

Code:

ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24
screen /home/ubuntu/start.sh

This way, as soon as the instance boots up, it should autolaunch the miners. I haven't tried this final automation part (as I don't normally launch a shitload of instances), but I think this should work, and I'm gonna verify it now.

Now, go back to your EC2 console, right-click on the g2.2xlarge instance in your Instances window, and select Create Image. This will sever your connection and cause a reboot, but you will now have your own image/AMI that you can launch 10s or 100s or 1000s of, just by entering however many instances you want when filling out your spot request form.

I just tried the rc.local thing, and it seems to auto-launch ccminer and minerd :)

If you feel like leaving a tip for jwinterm, those are his addresses:

BTC:

Code:

1Gy2BQKMVjvWdRnG3Ktwm2cXdEyL8ZdqvE

XMR:

Code:

49jkaP1xDZrEYaWxtoToPzitbQh6Z7Vv8c3MwtP49wsZhJUR5VojrxcKgb76zT8XRU5AAWHVptx4RgxgLb5fX7iM2vBSKXA

(ask him for confirmation that those are his addresses, if you want to be sure)


Hope the above is useful, at least for some of you. I know it was for me :)

Oda

[dEBRUYNE]

Quoting for info:

MEW - Monero Economy Workgroup communication

A taskforce is set up to address the issue of a possible "BCX exploit", and an ultimatum by BCX to find and fix it in 72 hours lest a serious attack is launched upon Monero.

The taskforce consists of several Monero developers, AnonyMint, CZ, jl777 and me.

There are differing opinions in the taskforce concerning the severity of the threat. No coinkiller is yet found and several avenues are probed. The members who have technical competence are talking about their views themselves.

Regardless of the outcome in the technical side, this is a serious economic attack on Monero - about 15% of the pre-ultimatum value is lost, and there is a great information asymmetry plaguing traders currently. It is notable that nobody has offered to borrow XMR for shorting (which I could provide against full guarantee deposit of BTC). Neither has anyone bought the PUT options. This means that the downside speculation has so far been limited to selling out from a trader's own stash. An economically motivated player who knows for sure about a lethal attack might decide to take leverage for personal gain.

I believe that the Monero devs are up to their task and can mitigate the potential exploit, and fix the code in preparation of the announced attack. I further believe that Monero will rise even stronger. Since I am not in possession of any knowledge that indicates that a realistic attack could take place, I can only estimate the probability that it exists unnoticed, and my estimate is 4-8%.

The MEW will be inaugurated on Tuesday, and also the devteam has important announcements (not related to the attack). Provided that our coin still exists, I am sure we have a great future ahead of us as a community with these new methods of organizing our activities for the mutual benefit.

[aminorex]

X-post from the Monero [ANN] thread.

Super helpful.  Thank you, sir.

[rpietila]

My current understanding of the recent events


Prices are in daily GMT "average(high-low)" format, BTC in USD and XMR in ksat.


2014-9-17
BTC 454(466-444), XMR 387(420-361)

- Bitcoin price started falling and alts fell in sympathy.
- Initial reaction to BCX/Moneroman88 troll debate, despite BCX's attempt to "conclude it".

(the "debate" was that a certain troll not in any way related to Monero developers or community, had provoked BCX in private message to claim he has an exploit to Cryptonote code and that he will drive the shitcoin to the ground)

2014-9-18
BTC 429(453-408), XMR 361(389-340)

- Bitcoin further falls, so does XMR in a day full of 10k+ dumps. Aminorex calculates that the XMR fall is not attributed to a special "BCX scare" but is just a result of Bitcoin falling, which alts tend to magnify.

2014-9-19
BTC 400(429-379), XMR 366(390-351)

- Bitcoin capitulation. XMR does not make further lows, threats towards attacking the blockchain with the CN exploit seem to abate.

2014-9-20
BTC 414(431-390), XMR 325(380-281)

- BCX suddenly announces that he will attack XMR in 72 hours unless the exploit is found and fixed in that amount of time.
- A taskforce consisting of (in no particular order) AnonyMint, jl777, crypto_zoidberg, me, and some Monero developers, is formed to tackle the challenge catered to us.
- Price tanks.

2014-9-21 so far
BTC 404(414-395), XMR  318(345-286)

- Quiet. Developers are working to find possible attack vectors. The market thinks that the lethal attack materializes in 17% probability currently (calculating 300/360, the current price divided by the baseline).

The volume-weighted average price in each the 3 days after the attack, including today, has been 316. Simply put, the market has not made any adjustment in the perception of the value of XMR during the time. From speculation standpoint, everyone who gets suckered to the pumps or panics in the dumps, plays inoptimally. The one who supports the price below 316 and provides coins for sale above it, plays optimally.

However, there is the danger that the price will go flash crash and then to terminal decline. If you believe this is the case with high enough probability, you should aim to sell, and you cannot ask for 316 if you want volume. 310 average might be possible for small lots and higher slippage for higher ones.

If the attack does not materialize or comes out weaker than expected, the price may also be ready for a rally. Loading up now at the bottom is a good idea, and you should expect to be able to buy at about 322.

[pinky]

If the attack does not materialize or comes out weaker than expected, the price may also be ready for a rally. Loading up now at the bottom is a good idea, and you should expect to be able to buy at about 322.

Market found out how risky XMR really is, hence it is very likely that adoption has slowed dramatically in the last week and current price doesn't support inflation rate. I don't believe we have seen the lows yet.

[smooth]

Market found out how risky XMR really is

Because they didn't know from the last two attacks, including the one that corrupted the blockchain?

The way I look at it, that says that the potential upside has been and continues to be enormous, because a huge amount of risk is already being priced in. That does not make for a buying indicator on fair valuation grounds of course, it is just an observation.

[pinky]

Market found out how risky XMR really is

Because they didn't know from the last two attacks, including the one that corrupted the blockchain?

Last two attacks were fixed quickly and trend was not hurt, now we did break the trendline. Average investor is an idiot and will buy things because everyone else is buying. They don't do any research, because facts would destroy their dreams of no risk/high gain investment. There is a big difference now, because one whale dumped coins and people got really scared - emotions (fear and greed) coupled with anticipation is what drives any market up and down!

But hey, I might be completly wrong, we'll see.

[smooth]

Average investor is an idiot and will buy things because everyone else is buying. They don't do any research, because facts would destroy their dreams of no risk/high gain investment. There is a big difference now, because one whale dumped coins and people got really scared - emotions (fear and greed) coupled with anticipation is what drives any market up and down!

But hey, I might be completly wrong, we'll see.

Interesting analysis. Thanks.

[Ultros]

if it suffers from any kind of attack, you'll won't be seeing BTCs move to an altcoin anytime soon

Well for once I have to agree with you. If XMR fail I doubt I'll touch any other altcoin and stay on BTC to stay (relatively) safe. XMR was objectively one of the best and probably the most honest crypto-development I've seen. If it's taken down by pure malice then to me any interesting/fair altcoin (like idk, BBR) is doomed to be taken down the same way by the mafias that reign on this ecosystem. Whoever want me (and many bitcoiners that bought an altcoin for the first time with XMR) to buy another coin because XMR is "dead" might be disappointed by the outcome.

[Okurkabinladin]

I have very strong feeling, that couple of months from now, we will simply laugh about current situation. Another opportunity to make this (still fresh) currency more robust.

I am not selling under 0.01 XMR/BTC.

[Oscilson]

I have very strong feeling, that couple of months from now, we will simply laugh about current situation. Another opportunity to make this (still fresh) currency more robust.

I am not selling under 0.01 XMR/BTC.

If XMR survives in the next few months, it will be much stronger in the future.

[600watt]

i piled up my xmr stash by 25%

if xmr is still kicking this very moment at rather average/seen before lows, this very moment of incredible uncertainty about possible total loss, this shows balls of steel by those who are holding. impresses me, that´s why i threw in some more btc.


hasta la victoria siempre ! 

[Eastwind]

We will see in a few hours!