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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
aminorex
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September 18, 2014, 02:44:37 AM
 #681

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...

Not sure if it was much of a capitulation, but the rebound does seem to be in...

27K dumped in one 5m candle was pretty impressive. 

the btc cap share equivalent would be like 120k btc

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 18, 2014, 07:15:05 AM
 #682

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...

Not sure if it was much of a capitulation, but the rebound does seem to be in...

27K dumped in one 5m candle was pretty impressive. 

the btc cap share equivalent would be like 120k btc

27k XMR out of 3500k existing XMR, that is about 0.77%. It also means some people bought those.
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September 18, 2014, 07:43:41 AM
 #683

In my opinion the emission schedule should be decreased by 50 %.
For example, the current block reward is around 14 xmr - better to change it to 7 xmr.
It will help the dumping pressure and gives nice and steady growth for the coin.
The existing balances and total number of coins should not be touched but just give 100 % more time for the rest of emission.
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September 18, 2014, 07:54:47 AM
 #684

In my opinion the emission schedule should be decreased by 50 %.
For example, the current block reward is around 14 xmr - better to change it to 7 xmr.
It will help the dumping pressure and gives nice and steady growth for the coin.
The existing balances and total number of coins should not be touched but just give 100 % more time for the rest of emission.

Some would call it a community-fastmine. Not like I'm saying it's fundamentally bad, but it doesn't look clean.
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September 18, 2014, 07:57:53 AM
 #685

In my opinion the emission schedule should be decreased by 50 %.
For example, the current block reward is around 14 xmr - better to change it to 7 xmr.
It will help the dumping pressure and gives nice and steady growth for the coin.
The existing balances and total number of coins should not be touched but just give 100 % more time for the rest of emission.

Some would call it a community-fastmine. Not like I'm saying it's fundamentally bad, but it doesn't look clean.

If something like that were to be done, and I'm not saying it is even on the table, it would have to be for better reasons, like the long term viability of the coin. Every time the issue has come up, though, it is always presented as a way to manipulate the market. That is a total non-starter. We could convert to a PoS shitcoin if we wanted, and not have to deal with any dumping at all. There is zero interest in doing that. Move on to one of the 1000+ of those if you want to be free from dumping.




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September 18, 2014, 08:14:47 AM
 #686

I understand your points... On the other hand, the emission schedule is way too fast IMO.
How this could be fixed then? For coin adoption it is vital to have slightly rising price (people do not delay their coin purchases in anticipation of lower price but on the other hand, it doesn't feel bubblish neither).

The price should be in rising trend constantly which encourages the newcomers joining into the party but too fast growth also discourages the newbies because they feel uncomfortable to buy a coin today and tomorrow see it has dropped 10 % overnight.

Many fiat denominated people do not like bitcoin because it has such a huge volatility. This should be done better in Monero, it will make Monero become # 1 crypto because the slow money is feeling more comfortable to move into Monero. The more you have fiat, the less you are willing to risk.
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September 18, 2014, 08:17:17 AM
 #687

For coin adoption it is vital to have slightly rising price (people do not delay their coin purchases in anticipation of lower price but on the other hand, it doesn't feel bubblish neither).

Actually I'd argue it is better to have a low price for a long time, so many more people can get in cheap.

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September 18, 2014, 08:20:15 AM
 #688

The price is in a slow, slow-paced, rising trend, with very clear higher lows. To me it's quite ideal really. We're avoiding the crazy volatility of most P/D schemes (even coins that are not P/D on purpose are being speculated to death because of the supply). We don't boom and we don't crash that much compared to other coins. Ofc when someone drop a FUD bomb on us it can hurt in the morning, but a faster emission schedule would probably worsen that effect.
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September 18, 2014, 08:21:27 AM
 #689

In my opinion the emission schedule should be decreased by 50 %.
For example, the current block reward is around 14 xmr - better to change it to 7 xmr.
It will help the dumping pressure and gives nice and steady growth for the coin.
The existing balances and total number of coins should not be touched but just give 100 % more time for the rest of emission.

XCN  has a 10 year half time.
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September 18, 2014, 08:48:57 AM
 #690

0.0035 should hold...

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September 18, 2014, 08:59:42 AM
 #691

and it's gone...

edit: back above 3.5

This is a critical support level. Could be the bottom

Searching for a trusted escrow service? Check my trust. I use a Trezor device for my escrow services, so your coins are safe. Fee: 0.5% or 0.05 BTC, whichever is lower
I support the largest public transparent p2p ledger Bitcoin (16TwXyEmpz7xKHbyVufZECXGFmUH9wHUyW) and the best private fungible digital cash Monero (dnaleor.weuse.cash)
Cetere mi opinias ke Dasho estas detruenda.     |     1Credit - Fair emission, better than BTC > CLCqECaYpCahgKRsXJiVBzgsiz57ZHfr4u
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September 18, 2014, 12:43:52 PM
 #692

In my opinion the emission schedule should be decreased by 50 %.
For example, the current block reward is around 14 xmr - better to change it to 7 xmr.
It will help the dumping pressure and gives nice and steady growth for the coin.
The existing balances and total number of coins should not be touched but just give 100 % more time for the rest of emission.

reason why is as it is now, is so coins will stay at low price fro longer period of time so as many people can get it and community grow naturally. Coin is getting developed slow, so if 70% would be mined in just few months, only few people would got them and that would bring much different future as Monero currently have. 

emission schedule is perfect as it is.

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September 18, 2014, 12:46:47 PM
 #693

I disagree.
Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.
It is like inflation vs. deflation debate.
Inflation is good for the economy but deflation is good for a person who likes to save money.
If you have slight, but constant increase in the coin exchange rate, it will attract buyers and buyers feel save to buy the coin now instead waiting for tomorrow for lower rate.

I recall more marketmakers such as Aminorex who have financial ability to buy sometimes even those dumps and on the other hand, sell when there is a buyer in the market.
After this dump I really understand the value of marketmakers.

Also, bitcoin's major failure in terms of financials is its huge volatility. This volatility prevents the big money entering into bitcoin.
A billionaire doesn't trust in a currency which can be tomorrow anything - up 10 % or down 10 %. Money should store value both short and long term.
If I am a billionaire and I have negotiated a business deal, I would prefer to eliminate this type of uncertainity.
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September 18, 2014, 12:48:47 PM
 #694

A slow rise, probably 5-20% a year is fine with me. But the coin has to be useful.
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September 18, 2014, 12:49:25 PM
 #695

I disagree.
Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.

Only if they are short term focused and impatient. Not much we can do about that, if the goal is long term sucess. They're just a mismatch.

Maybe the reason most pump-and-dump alts never amount to much of anything is too much participation from short-term-focused speculators. I don't see much use for them.

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September 18, 2014, 12:50:42 PM
 #696

we are going nowhere but down,
sell xmr now or you will regret it later!!!!
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September 18, 2014, 12:53:22 PM
 #697

I disagree.
Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.
It is like inflation vs. deflation debate.
Inflation is good for the economy but deflation is good for a person who likes to save money.
If you have slight, but constant increase in the coin exchange rate, it will attract buyers and buyers feel save to buy the coin now instead waiting for tomorrow for lower rate.

I recall more marketmakers such as Aminorex who have financial ability to buy sometimes even those dumps and on the other hand, sell when there is a buyer in the market.
After this dump I really understand the value of marketmakers.

Also, bitcoin's major failure in terms of financials is its huge volatility. This volatility prevents the big money entering into bitcoin.
A billionaire doesn't trust in a currency which can be tomorrow anything - up 10 % or down 10 %. Money should store value both short and long term.
If I am a billionaire and I have negotiated a business deal, I would prefer to eliminate this type of uncertainity.

The good thing with an emission schedule is that you know it in advance. You decide to buy it or not, but you don't change it just like that. It's part of the social contract supporting the coin.
Changing such fundamental stuff on the way are good for other crappy alts. This is often (always) made out of greed rather than for building a functional economy. Monero is worth more than these arrangements.

If we grow organically, we won't have bagholders.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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September 18, 2014, 12:54:49 PM
 #698

I disagree.
Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.
It is like inflation vs. deflation debate.
Inflation is good for the economy but deflation is good for a person who likes to save money.
If you have slight, but constant increase in the coin exchange rate, it will attract buyers and buyers feel save to buy the coin now instead waiting for tomorrow for lower rate.

I recall more marketmakers such as Aminorex who have financial ability to buy sometimes even those dumps and on the other hand, sell when there is a buyer in the market.
After this dump I really understand the value of marketmakers.

Also, bitcoin's major failure in terms of financials is its huge volatility. This volatility prevents the big money entering into bitcoin.
A billionaire doesn't trust in a currency which can be tomorrow anything - up 10 % or down 10 %. Money should store value both short and long term.
If I am a billionaire and I have negotiated a business deal, I would prefer to eliminate this type of uncertainity.

The good thing with an emission schedule is that you know it in advance. You decide to buy it or not, but you don't change it just like that. It's part of the social contract supporting the coin.
Changing such fundamental stuff on the way are good for other crappy alts. This is often (always) made out of greed rather than for building a functional economy. Monero is worth more than these arrangements.

If we grow organically, we won't have bagholders.

I agree
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September 18, 2014, 01:02:10 PM
 #699

The good thing with an emission schedule is that you know it in advance. You decide to buy it or not, but you don't change it just like that. It's part of the social contract supporting the coin.

I don't entirely think it is quite that simple. You can decide to buy because of great advantages but despite problems with the emission schedule. You don't really get to choose between every possible variation.

The "social contract" emissions curve argument is a precedent that comes from Bitcoin and I don't really think it has done Bitcoin any favors. For example, the commitment to the insane notion of rewards going away and mining supported by transaction fees despite no cogent argument about how this is going to work has become something akin to a slow suicide pact. There may be other problems too (my suspicion is that Bitcoin's is too fast). Contracts, including social contracts, can and should be renegotiated when new information presents and conditions change.

I totally and completely reject the "cut emissions because we want less dumping" suggestion though. That is not a valid or useful reason to renegotiate a social contract.

Let's wrap this up though, unless someone can tie it directly in with speculation. Any further discussion should be on the main thread.


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September 18, 2014, 01:04:06 PM
 #700

Long lasting low price will make the bagholders leaving from the coin.

Monero dont need any bagholders.
It just need to be fully ready, and at that time still relatively cheap.
Bag holders can go hld other coins. there are 1500 of them.

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