[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

Don't think it's a good analysis. We have been up and visisted 0.005 at least 2 times now on the shorter time frame, 4 times on the larger one. The big holders of XMR have already had their chance to sell.

There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.

Am I so unclear that you interpret my post as an:
- exhortation to sell?
- analysis that a dump is likely?

I have bolded the relevant parts, that in my opinion (and intention) support the view that despite there is a large but below 50% chance that we are sold into, it is still profitable to buy.

[Skinnkavaj]

The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.

Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.

The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.

[Skinnkavaj]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

[vuduchyld]

The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.

Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.

The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.

9+x return in less than 60 days?  That is a bold call.

[Skinnkavaj]

9+x return in less than 60 days?  That is a bold call.

It's the altcoin market. Crazier things have happened before.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.

[GreekBitcoin]

9+x return in less than 60 days?  That is a bold call.

It's the altcoin market. Crazier things have happened before.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.

No i prefer to see it double in 60 days than seeing it 9 times up. So big bubbles are bad. After all darkcoin is irrelevant as an anonymous coin anymore and when monero doubles its price it will be above darkcoin anyway...

[aminorex]

Does anyone use cryptsy?  I guess for the alts everyone else has delisted.

GUI before DB would be a mistake, IMO. 

I would hope I would have heard about it if OpenBazaar work for XMR was close to ready.

That leaves online wallet.  That could happen in a week or two, yes.

But you forgot gambling sites.  That could happen soonest.

[Febo]

What i prefer is that price will not go under 0.0035 this month, and not under 0.004 in October, and not under 0.0045 in December and in January not under 0.005.
I am lucky guy, since there is huge chance, what i prefer will happen.  

[saddambitcoin]

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

In general I agree with this analysis. Until there are some fundamental developments (database, GUI) completed that enable the flood of new users unwilling to tinker with Monero in its current state, price will continue to oscillate making higher lows each time.

I suspect the 0.004 level will hold for this week and then buy support will erode to sub 300 BTC, slowly dropping to around 0.00365. We will see the XMR ask sum around the low of 160,000 and that will be the sign it is time to go up again.

With that being said, there have been no missives for a couple weeks - this could mean devs are just busy or perhaps they are close to reaching some big milestone and delaying the next missive until complete. I have no idea, but I am not selling any XMR right now.

[smoothie]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

[rdnkjdi]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

I 1000% agree with this.  It seems like a perfect fit for BTC-E ...

[Skinnkavaj]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

Possible. But I don't think btc-e will ever add any more coins. Happy to be wrong on that subject though. 

I say more likely Bitfinex dumps DRK and add XMR.
Now that would be fun.  

[dEBRUYNE]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

There are still a lot of whales on cryptsy, adding XMR  would boost up price and volume. For example see the dogecoin volume, which is around 50-100k a day.

[smoothie]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

There are still a lot of whales on cryptsy, adding XMR  would boost up price and volume. For example see the dogecoin volume, which is around 50-100k a day.

Total traded BTC volume on a daily basis...BTC-e blows cryptsy out of the water.

[dEBRUYNE]

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.  

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

There are still a lot of whales on cryptsy, adding XMR  would boost up price and volume. For example see the dogecoin volume, which is around 50-100k a day.

Total traded BTC volume on a daily basis...BTC-e blows cryptsy out of the water.

Yeah I totally agree on that, but my point was adding it to cryptsy would also do monero good. I described it wrong in my previous post, sorry for that! Personally I think that would take a long time for btc-e to add XMR, they first need to delist some coins which barely have volume.

[iCEBREAKER]

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

I 1000% agree with this.  It seems like a perfect fit for BTC-E ...

smoothie...master of understatement!   

Craptsy is only good for trading your bag of Shitcoins for other Shitcoins (like Diamond and Sync, for example).

Listing on BTC-E would enable Monero-fiat (dollar/euro/ruble/yuan) trading, which would catalyze Gresham's Law and drive market cap up towards the moon.

Just wait until the oligarchs figure out how much safer from Putin/FATCA their loot will be when they hlod it in Monero!   

[TheKoziTwo]

Dmitry has stated that btc-e is very much against premine, when asked why no new coins are being added he stated: "all new coins with premine "

Somebody who speaks russian may be able to convince him about monero. I speculate that btc-e may also prefer to own a seisable stash of whatever currency they add. That may be more of a difficult feat. I have some vague memory of something like FTC devs paying a huge chunk of coins to get it added, but in another case btc-e ended up doing a proof of burn after accusations of recieving coins (maybe that was TRC or nova?). Don't quote me on that, maybe somebody else remembers better.

Monero being added to btc-e would definitivly take the price and volume to a new level, likely beyond LTC.

[smooth]

Dmitry has stated that btc-e is very much against premine, when asked why no new coins are being added he stated: "all new coins with premine "

Somebody who speaks russian may be able to convince him about monero. I speculate that btc-e may also prefer to own a seisable stash of whatever currency they add. That may be more of a difficult feat. I have some vague memory of something like FTC devs paying a huge chunk of coins to get it added, but in another case btc-e ended up doing a proof of burn after accusations of recieving coins (maybe that was TRC or nova?). Don't quote me on that, maybe somebody else remembers better.

I think it was TRC NVC but in any case. How do the developers give a huge chunk of coins without a premine (or instamine or some other scam)? I don't get it. About the only way I can think of other than the developers being independently wealthy would be if the coin went zombie for a while and no one other than the developers was bothering to mine it. That seems like a small target market. Perhaps that explains why they don't add too many coins.

[iCEBREAKER]

Dmitry has stated that btc-e is very much against premine, when asked why no new coins are being added he stated: "all new coins with premine "

Somebody who speaks russian may be able to convince him about monero. I speculate that btc-e may also prefer to own a seisable stash of whatever currency they add. That may be more of a difficult feat. I have some vague memory of something like FTC devs paying a huge chunk of coins to get it added, but in another case btc-e ended up doing a proof of burn after accusations of recieving coins (maybe that was TRC or nova?). Don't quote me on that, maybe somebody else remembers better.

Monero being added to btc-e would definitivly take the price and volume to a new level, likely beyond LTC.

We're supposed to hold off on the marketing blitz until the database and wallet are done-ish.

Then we'll commission a spiel for exchanges ("zomg look how much btc/xmr volume already and just imagine the fiat pairs...!") and translate it for the hardworking prosperous BRICs and lazy heathen PIIGS.

[dnaleor]

Breakout?