[XMR] Monero Speculation

[mr_random]

Do tell how a rich list would work in an untraceable currency?

That said, you have ~1.3% of current supply. I'd argue whale.

Touche. I figured that may well be the case but I wasn't sure if it was a case of being very difficult or actually impossible.

My random friend, you are most definitely a whale.

And yes, everyone here sees it going 60+. You'd be insane to buy something like XMR if you didn't think it had HUGE upside in case of success.

I should probably post in the XMR topics more often. But I advertise XMR in my sig everywhere which has to help.

What's surprised me about XMR is that it's proving to be more than a pump and dump. I attribute this to a continual flow of new investors due to word of mouth spreading.

Here's to the future 

[statdude]

Do tell how a rich list would work in an untraceable currency?

That said, you have ~1.3% of current supply. I'd argue whale.

Touche. I figured that may well be the case but I wasn't sure if it was a case of being very difficult or actually impossible.

My random friend, you are most definitely a whale.

And yes, everyone here sees it going 60+. You'd be insane to buy something like XMR if you didn't think it had HUGE upside in case of success.

I should probably post in the XMR topics more often. But I advertise XMR in my sig everywhere which has to help.

What's surprised me about XMR is that it's proving to be more than a pump and dump. I attribute this to a continual flow of new investors due to word of mouth spreading.

Here's to the future 

I am managing a "rich list" and will add you, don't worry about filling it out. New graph updates coming this week.

Congrats on your early coins, you may be the "luckiest" XMR whale in existence.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2egnsr/moneroxmr_unofficial_distribution_survey/

[luigi1111]

What are some ridiculously long term predictions for this coin? What price do you expect in 20 years time or so? I think in 2050, we'll see a legit FIAT crash from dollar and euro, with asia becoming the ruler fiat, and crypto growing strong on the sidelines. My only 2 long term bets are BTC and XMR thus far.

Possibly in 2070, 100-1000 XMR could be enough to buy a little island...

You know how many little islands there are for sale vs how many XMR will exist in 50 years?   

Wish so bad I was around the internet before stupid people could connect   

Good luck with your island there guy 

At this moment with current XMR rate there are not so many islands for sale cheaper than 100K-1000K XMR. The growth of Earth population is slowing down and can stabilize may be around 10-12 billion by 2050 if no major disaster happens. But anyway the rate of the islands development is quite high so almost obvious that they are going to be much more expensive.

Widely adopted XMR is gonna be very expensive as well and so difficult to assume that it will rise 1000 or more times in just few years.

Bitcoin is not widely adopted and yet is 250x XMR. 1000x isn't hard at all to imagine given "wide adoption".

Given real "wide adoption" BTC has 100-1000x to go. If XMR achieves that "wide adoption" that is 25000-250000x by your numbers.

I agree with your conclusions, but I don't think we're using "my" numbers. I was trying to point out that a "mere" 1000x isn't hard to imagine. You provided the "wide adoption" numbers as far as I can tell (I somewhat implied 4x current BTC value would be the absolute baseline for such a thing, but am in agreement the real value would be much higher).

[smooth]

What are some ridiculously long term predictions for this coin? What price do you expect in 20 years time or so? I think in 2050, we'll see a legit FIAT crash from dollar and euro, with asia becoming the ruler fiat, and crypto growing strong on the sidelines. My only 2 long term bets are BTC and XMR thus far.

Possibly in 2070, 100-1000 XMR could be enough to buy a little island...

You know how many little islands there are for sale vs how many XMR will exist in 50 years?   

Wish so bad I was around the internet before stupid people could connect   

Good luck with your island there guy 

At this moment with current XMR rate there are not so many islands for sale cheaper than 100K-1000K XMR. The growth of Earth population is slowing down and can stabilize may be around 10-12 billion by 2050 if no major disaster happens. But anyway the rate of the islands development is quite high so almost obvious that they are going to be much more expensive.

Widely adopted XMR is gonna be very expensive as well and so difficult to assume that it will rise 1000 or more times in just few years.

Bitcoin is not widely adopted and yet is 250x XMR. 1000x isn't hard at all to imagine given "wide adoption".

Given real "wide adoption" BTC has 100-1000x to go. If XMR achieves that "wide adoption" that is 25000-250000x by your numbers.

I agree with your conclusions, but I don't think we're using "my" numbers. I was trying to point out that a "mere" 1000x isn't hard to imagine. You provided the "wide adoption" numbers as far as I can tell (I somewhat implied 4x current BTC value would be the absolute baseline for such a thing, but am in agreement the real value would be much higher).

I just meant the number for BTC/XMR. That's obvious from the market prices though.

Of course, this is all "speculation"

[explorer]

Do tell how a rich list would work in an untraceable currency?

That said, you have ~1.3% of current supply. I'd argue whale.

Touche. I figured that may well be the case but I wasn't sure if it was a case of being very difficult or actually impossible.

My random friend, you are most definitely a whale.

And yes, everyone here sees it going 60+. You'd be insane to buy something like XMR if you didn't think it had HUGE upside in case of success.

I should probably post in the XMR topics more often. But I advertise XMR in my sig everywhere which has to help.

What's surprised me about XMR is that it's proving to be more than a pump and dump. I attribute this to a continual flow of new investors due to word of mouth spreading.

Here's to the future 

I am managing a "rich list" and will add you, don't worry about filling it out. New graph updates coming this week.

Congrats on your early coins, you may be the "luckiest" XMR whale in existence.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2egnsr/moneroxmr_unofficial_distribution_survey/

Hmm.   I resubmitted the form with an update.  It seems that I've blown through my 6 month projection already

[Brilliantrocket]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

[luigi1111]

What are some ridiculously long term predictions for this coin? What price do you expect in 20 years time or so? I think in 2050, we'll see a legit FIAT crash from dollar and euro, with asia becoming the ruler fiat, and crypto growing strong on the sidelines. My only 2 long term bets are BTC and XMR thus far.

Possibly in 2070, 100-1000 XMR could be enough to buy a little island...

You know how many little islands there are for sale vs how many XMR will exist in 50 years?   

Wish so bad I was around the internet before stupid people could connect   

Good luck with your island there guy 

At this moment with current XMR rate there are not so many islands for sale cheaper than 100K-1000K XMR. The growth of Earth population is slowing down and can stabilize may be around 10-12 billion by 2050 if no major disaster happens. But anyway the rate of the islands development is quite high so almost obvious that they are going to be much more expensive.

Widely adopted XMR is gonna be very expensive as well and so difficult to assume that it will rise 1000 or more times in just few years.

Bitcoin is not widely adopted and yet is 250x XMR. 1000x isn't hard at all to imagine given "wide adoption".

Given real "wide adoption" BTC has 100-1000x to go. If XMR achieves that "wide adoption" that is 25000-250000x by your numbers.

I agree with your conclusions, but I don't think we're using "my" numbers. I was trying to point out that a "mere" 1000x isn't hard to imagine. You provided the "wide adoption" numbers as far as I can tell (I somewhat implied 4x current BTC value would be the absolute baseline for such a thing, but am in agreement the real value would be much higher).

I just meant the number for BTC/XMR. That's obvious from the market prices though.

Of course, this is all "speculation"

Right, it's just market prices, thus my confusion.

As for speculation, I think we're in the right place!

[Jungian]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

[Brilliantrocket]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high. So basically, we're expected to wait 2+ years to see a decent return?

[luigi1111]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Definitely something to consider. XMR does have a rather rapid, smooth (get it?) distribution, so inflation is constantly and rapidly slowing down.

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high.

So take the emission, imagine what you think daily influx could be, calculate expected price, and decide if it's attractive relative to current prices.

[smooth]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high. So basically, we're expected to wait 2+ years to see a decent return?

That's not how markets work. If people expect the coin to be $10 in two years then money will rapidly flow in to support the emission at something close to $10.

If you don't expect the coin go to up, ever, the don't buy it. Clearly.

[Brilliantrocket]

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

[Febo]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

[luigi1111]

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners, and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

This definition could vary a bunch. DRK was obviously VERY fast (but only about 10% of the longer term supply), XMR is just "fast" with 50% in two years. Its supply will certainly outpace DRK's sometime next year.

So you could argue XMR's distribution is faster, however DRK has to contend with major accusations that never cease from those fateful first 24 hours. I think the present price would be much higher if that hadn't occurred.

[Brilliantrocket]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

New investors buy from a pool of all available coins, not just newly minted ones. So it's actually better to have a supply of 5,000,000 and an emission of 1000 than it is to have a supply of 1,000,000 and an emission of 20,000. I really can't see any advantage to dumping 86% of your supply over 4 years, from the perspective of a few months into that timeline. Who is benefiting there? Early adopters, developers and new investors are all disadvantaged, it would seem to me.

[luigi1111]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

New investors buy from a pool of all available coins, not just newly minted ones. So it's actually better to have a supply of 5,000,000 and an emission of 1000 than it is to have a supply of 1,000,000 and an emission of 20,000. I really can't see any advantage to dumping 86% of your supply over 4 years, from the perspective of a few months into that timeline. Who is benefiting there? Early adopters, developers and new investors are all disadvantaged, it would seem to me.

I think the price "hurts" longer, which arguably benefits accumulators more.

[smooth]

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Your argument basically comes down to centralized systems being more efficient and mining being inefficient. That might be true in an ideal world without the possibility of fraud or abuse. It isn't true in the real world.

[Brilliantrocket]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers. To be clear this is not trolling. If you look through my posts, you'll see that I've been very disappointed with how Darkcoin is coming along. I'm looking to diversify.

[saddambitcoin]

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

[Febo]

Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.