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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
freebud
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October 06, 2014, 06:56:12 PM
 #901

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair.. 

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.



The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?
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October 06, 2014, 07:14:35 PM
 #902

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..  

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.



The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

wtf, I fail to see how any "believer" should be "forced" to buy all the coins and support the market alone.

only peep complaining about the price are trolls using to bash Monero once again (not saying you are one!)
Have you actually read the discussion? I was replying to smooth, who came up with that theory. I certainly don't think any "believer" should or would hold the price for the rest.
I can understand the "Troll" paranoia after what we have been through in the last couple of months, but please do make an effort to discern Trolling and honest discussion.
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October 06, 2014, 07:18:06 PM
 #903

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair.. 

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.

The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

"Believe" was a bad choice of words on my part. After all you can believe any number of things and not act on it for whatever reason (such as lack of funds). "Bid" would be a better word. As in: as long as two market participants are willing to bid X then the price will be at least X. I think you can infer that from Risto's statement at all. He said "everyone" but really it can only matter what market participants do, not "everyone."

But again, market participants may change what they do in response to the actions of others. If enough coins are being dumped, people who were willing to bid X might relent and stop bidding. What was correct about Risto's statement is that it only takes two participants being willing to bid at a given level to keep the price at a given level, but that says nothing about whether such people exist at any given time. I also don't agree with him about the asymmetry. The same thing could be said about sellers, except in that sellers are never required (due to mining) but buyers are always required.


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October 06, 2014, 07:43:27 PM
 #904

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.




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October 06, 2014, 07:50:41 PM
 #905


My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.

Does this apply to any coin?
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October 06, 2014, 07:57:31 PM
 #906


My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.

Does this apply to any coin?

Yes.

What results, is a "spiky" price curve with high spikes and long valleys.
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October 06, 2014, 08:16:37 PM
 #907

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.





ok, this is an interesting argument, quite different from the initial one. Sorry if I was too harsh in my previous comment, I think it's very important that you and other prominent figures in the XMR scene will stay honest and rational.
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October 08, 2014, 08:31:58 PM
 #908

Nice 40 BTC market buy!

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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October 08, 2014, 10:06:16 PM
 #909

It goes to my clients. I am starting XMR/EUR dealing.

It is only 10,000 EUR and one guy.

Do the math.
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October 09, 2014, 10:02:57 AM
 #910

I was fantasizing with the idea that the 10 biggest whales would each make even 1 OTC-deal to their friends/business associates per week. Only for $5000. This would be $50k per week, 50,000 XMR.

If this had been the way all along, 40% of XMR would already belong to well-connected businessmen all over the world, with a visible boost to price and adoption.

I am doing it, but you can do it also.   Smiley
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October 09, 2014, 11:30:39 AM
 #911

I would think with Open Bazaar and such that anonymous cryptos such as Monero will RAPIDLY rise in use (and value). Anyone know how close we are to being used in Open Bazaar or ?

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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October 09, 2014, 01:45:37 PM
 #912

Short term speculation: Possiblity to drop to 0.00295 before uptrend picks up


Mid term speculation: downtrend seems to be broken.


long term: MOON

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October 09, 2014, 02:14:59 PM
 #913

rptiella - your rich right?  how about this to drive monero's price up.

A - buy this domain.  https://flippa.com/3261174-anonymity-com-internet-related-proxy-ip-address-great-project-domain-now

B - offer an "insurance" on drugs to make money - works something like this.
 - you give explitcit instructions on how people should buy drugs in open bazaar (use tails, only buy from this vendor, buy these types in this country, only use monero etc etc etc)
 - you mark whatever drugs up 10% and if they can prove they follow all your instructions you pay for the best lawyer in their area

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October 09, 2014, 02:26:01 PM
 #914

It seems that someone with a lot of XMR wants to keep the price down. 300k XMR on the books at Polo.

I don't understand why anyone would sell Monero under 0.004.

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October 09, 2014, 02:30:11 PM
 #915

It seems that someone with a lot of XMR wants to keep the price down. 300k XMR on the books at Polo.

I don't understand why anyone would sell Monero under 0.004.


To suppress the price so their friends/associates w/e, can buy in.
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October 09, 2014, 05:32:00 PM
 #916

long term: MOON


The artist should do the cat's ears so that it makes a better "M"

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
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October 09, 2014, 06:50:35 PM
 #917

long term: MOON


The artist should do the cat's ears so that it makes a better "M"

And spell it "Moonero"
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October 09, 2014, 06:55:17 PM
 #918

btw...

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October 10, 2014, 11:09:18 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2014, 11:32:45 PM by dnaleor
 #919

Time for that breakout? Smiley



edit: added fib levels. It seems that the current resistance at 0.0032 BTC is perfactly in line with the fib level.

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October 10, 2014, 11:16:59 PM
 #920

Time for that breakout? Smiley

Probably and hopefully. We are waiting bull market for a long time.
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