[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

Well that will distrubute the XMRs to other holders and prevent the price from skyrocketing too fast / too high. That is a good thing.

[klee]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

Well that will distrubute the XMRs to other holders and prevent the price from skyrocketing too fast / too high. That is a good thing.

Sure but it may be done more violently than XMR can handle.

We will see, I try to help the project from the backstage (smooth can confirm)...

[rpietila]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

[NewLiberty]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

Well that will distrubute the XMRs to other holders and prevent the price from skyrocketing too fast / too high. That is a good thing.

Sure but it may be done more violently than XMR can handle.

We will see, I try to help the project from the backstage (smooth can confirm)...

This presumes continued exponential rises in BTC.  Those may be happening in XMR instead from here forward.

XMR market cap is 1/1000 of BTC
XMR has a head start on doing things that BTC doesn't do.

If you think a BTC whale needs to finance its BTC purchases by selling XMR, think again.

[iourzzz]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

Well that will distrubute the XMRs to other holders and prevent the price from skyrocketing too fast / too high. That is a good thing.

Sure but it may be done more violently than XMR can handle.

We will see, I try to help the project from the backstage (smooth can confirm)...

This presumes continued exponential rises in BTC.  Those may be happening in XMR instead from here forward.

XMR market cap is 1/1000 of BTC
XMR has a head start on doing things that BTC doesn't do.

If you think a BTC whale needs to finance its BTC purchases by selling XMR, think again.

There is a possibility that at some moment BTC being loaded with all regulatory weight together with expectations can become too heavy to fly high in the sky fast enough and that will get one more chance for Monero to get accelerated by nitrous oxygen ignition.

[infofront]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

The more I've thought about it, the more this last point seems possible.
Bitcoin seems to really be getting away from it's roots and is seemingly poised as a Visa/MasterCard competitor, rather than a currency competitor. Also, the fact that it's not truly anonymous makes it's utility as "e-cash" limited.

I would be absolutely shocked if the NSA and other 3-letter agencies didn't already have automated tools that make tracing bitcoin transactions back to individuals a trivial task. The IRS and other tax agencies around the globe won't be too far behind.

[iourzzz]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

The more I've thought about it, the more this last point seems possible.
Bitcoin seems to really be getting away from it's roots and is seemingly poised as a Visa/MasterCard competitor, rather than a currency competitor. Also, the fact that it's not truly anonymous makes it's utility as "e-cash" limited.

I would be absolutely shocked if the NSA and other 3-letter agencies didn't already have automated tools that make tracing bitcoin transactions back to individuals a trivial task. The IRS and other tax agencies around the globe won't be too far behind.

Anyway the success of bitcoin is in best interests of Monero. And despite all the strangeness of it's stagnation the overall economy is still expands...

[smooth]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

[rpietila]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

[dEBRUYNE]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

[rpietila]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

Technically I said "If truth is that - -", which means that on the condition that A is true, then B.

Typical tautology. I believe A to be true, but it is possible that the history will repeat and in this case XMR rise at the apex of the BTC bubble.

[ArticMine]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

Not just Litecoin. Many alts spiked with respect to XBT during the last XBT/USD boom. They included among others Namecoin, Peercoin, Anoncoin and even Freicoin! From this perspective XMR can be considered a leveraged play, with limited downside risk, on XBT.

Edit: The release of Dogecoin right at the peak of the XBT/USD boom is likely the primary reason for the brutal bear market in Dogecoin since its release.

[dEBRUYNE]

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

Technically I said "If truth is that - -", which means that on the condition that A is true, then B.

Typical tautology. I believe A to be true, but it is possible that the history will repeat and in this case XMR rise at the apex of the BTC bubble.

Thanks for elaborating, we will see what the future holds.

I've thrown out the concept of Second Mover Advantage several times. Maybe it isn't (won't be) Monero but the idea that no coin can or should replace Bitcoin is not sensible.

If truth is that Bitcoin's demise with its $8,000,000,000 market cap will boost Monero with its $6,000,000 market cap, and Bitcoin's stellar growth will lead to Monero's exchange rate going down vs. Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's welfare is not in Monero's best interests.

In practice, very few own more XMR than BTC by value. Especially the largest holders of XMR invariably own more BTC. This means that the majority of moneros are in the hands that would rather see Bitcoin flourishing (even if it means that XMR goes down), and therefore the Monero community is supporting Bitcoin.

Monero can be regarded as a hedge to Bitcoin.

Responding to the bold part, did you see what happened with the ltc/btc rate when bitcoin went stellar at the end of 2013? It multiplied like 5 times. Don't you see that as a possebillity for monero? Personally I see monero as a hedge, but also as a complement to bitcoin.

Not just Litecoin. Many alts spiked with respect to XBT during the last XBT/USD boom. They included among others Namecoin, Peercoin, Anoncoin and even Freicoin! From this perspective XMR can be considered a leveraged play, with limited downside risk, on XBT.

Edit: The release of Dogecoin right at the peak of the XBT/USD boom is likely the primary reason for the brutal bear market in Dogecoin since its release.

True that, doge started falling (price-wise) on the beginning on february. If I recall correctly that was when we dropped from 750-800. Charts here:
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/dogecoin/

[nioc]

It has been a very slow day of trading.

I have found a way to prevent myself from turning all my btc into Monero.  Crazy glue the number keys.

[rpietila]

It has been a very slow day of trading.

I have found a way to prevent myself from turning all my btc into Monero.  Crazy glue the number keys.

Are you sure you won't regret the choice to diversify into BTC, 1-2 years down the line...

[nioc]

It has been a very slow day of trading.

I have found a way to prevent myself from turning all my btc into Monero.  Crazy glue the number keys.

Are you sure you won't regret the choice to diversify into BTC, 1-2 years down the line...

All I'm sure of is that I am here and it is now.  There is one more thing, those that I love now I will love forever.

I have already converted the majority of my modest amount of btc into XMR.

[binaryFate]

Alleluia Monero brothers and sisters!!

Looks like we collectively invented the most price-wise stable coin of all time!  

[nakaone]

Alleluia Monero brothers and sisters!!

Looks like we collectively invented the most price-wise stable coin of all time!  

I assumed that in boring xmr times, and that is basically right now, the price would go much lower due to the high level of inflation and the very limited way to use xmr at this point of time. Maybe I was wrong.

[dnaleor]

long term still in consolidation:



short term breakout possible:

[rikkejohn]

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Please link where I have said my aim is to gain more BTC? If I read my mind correctly, it has not been my aim since summer-13.

Hedge is something I have talked about. USDXMR in my understanding would immediately gain a lot if something serious happened to Bitcoin, making it a perfect hedge.

I also believe Monero has the chance of taking over Bitcoin.

I'm not being purposely difficult, and I believe that you mean what you say, but XMR will not take over from bitcoin. Or rather, if XMR takes over from bitcoin, it will be in a drastically different crypto market, in which the potential for cryptocurrency to becme mainstream had been reduced to near zero.

People, Joe and Jill Public, don't want cryptonote. They might go for another alt, but it will be easy to use and they will want to be able to track their money and to prove it to the authorities.