[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

I have very strong feeling, that couple of months from now, we will simply laugh about current situation. Another opportunity to make this (still fresh) currency more robust.

I am not selling under 0.01 XMR/BTC.

My prediction is very much the same.

We still laugh at how BCX claimed to be attacking Litecoin in 2012 then to fail miserably and create childish drama via another thread on this forum is something I still have not forgotten about.

If he performs a XMR attack....i suspect it wont be long before it is forgotten and the price rebounds and people go about their usual day.

[pa]

if it suffers from any kind of attack, you'll won't be seeing BTCs move to an altcoin anytime soon

Well for once I have to agree with you. If XMR fail I doubt I'll touch any other altcoin and stay on BTC to stay (relatively) safe. XMR was objectively one of the best and probably the most honest crypto-development I've seen. If it's taken down by pure malice then to me any interesting/fair altcoin (like idk, BBR) is doomed to be taken down the same way by the mafias that reign on this ecosystem. Whoever want me (and many bitcoiners that bought an altcoin for the first time with XMR) to buy another coin because XMR is "dead" might be disappointed by the outcome.

I spoke that for myself, I do and I hold what I say but I know its true for other people as well because of the bold

I was thinking along the same lines. I never had any interest in investing in alt-coins before XMR, and it will be a long time before I would consider another alt-coin investment if XMR fails owing to Bytecoin/CN psy-ops and BCX cyber-terrorism.

[Hueristic]

if it suffers from any kind of attack, you'll won't be seeing BTCs move to an altcoin anytime soon

Well for once I have to agree with you. If XMR fail I doubt I'll touch any other altcoin and stay on BTC to stay (relatively) safe. XMR was objectively one of the best and probably the most honest crypto-development I've seen. If it's taken down by pure malice then to me any interesting/fair altcoin (like idk, BBR) is doomed to be taken down the same way by the mafias that reign on this ecosystem. Whoever want me (and many bitcoiners that bought an altcoin for the first time with XMR) to buy another coin because XMR is "dead" might be disappointed by the outcome.

I spoke that for myself, I do and I hold what I say but I know its true for other people as well because of the bold

I was thinking along the same lines. I never had any interest in investing in alt-coins before XMR, and it will be a long time before I would consider another alt-coin investment if XMR fails owing to Bytecoin/CN psy-ops and BCX cyber-terrorism.

Don't forget that ALL Crypto-Coins HAVE to be able to withstand attack. Although I'm not a fan of the way it's going down. But these things happen and XMR will come out stronger in the end or it will die before costing the Devs more of their precious time. there are 2 sides to each coin.

[vuduchyld]

there are 2 sides to each coin.

is that Confucius?  I like it.  My new motto.

[Oscilson]

It seems there is no attack. Or the attack has probably started, and it will take days.

[iCEBREAKER]

It seems there is no attack. Or the attack has probably started, and it will take days.

or months

or weeks

[NewLiberty]

My current understanding of the recent events


Prices are in daily GMT "average(high-low)" format, BTC in USD and XMR in ksat.


2014-9-17
BTC 454(466-444), XMR 387(420-361)

- Bitcoin price started falling and alts fell in sympathy.
- Initial reaction to BCX/Moneroman88 troll debate, despite BCX's attempt to "conclude it".

(the "debate" was that a certain troll not in any way related to Monero developers or community, had provoked BCX in private message to claim he has an exploit to Cryptonote code and that he will drive the shitcoin to the ground)

2014-9-18
BTC 429(453-408), XMR 361(389-340)

- Bitcoin further falls, so does XMR in a day full of 10k+ dumps. Aminorex calculates that the XMR fall is not attributed to a special "BCX scare" but is just a result of Bitcoin falling, which alts tend to magnify.

2014-9-19
BTC 400(429-379), XMR 366(390-351)

- Bitcoin capitulation. XMR does not make further lows, threats towards attacking the blockchain with the CN exploit seem to abate.

2014-9-20
BTC 414(431-390), XMR 325(380-281)

- BCX suddenly announces that he will attack XMR in 72 hours unless the exploit is found and fixed in that amount of time.
- A taskforce consisting of (in no particular order) AnonyMint, jl777, crypto_zoidberg, me, and some Monero developers, is formed to tackle the challenge catered to us.
- Price tanks.

2014-9-21 so far
BTC 404(414-395), XMR  318(345-286)

- Quiet. Developers are working to find possible attack vectors. The market thinks that the lethal attack materializes in 17% probability currently (calculating 300/360, the current price divided by the baseline).

The volume-weighted average price in each the 3 days after the attack, including today, has been 316. Simply put, the market has not made any adjustment in the perception of the value of XMR during the time. From speculation standpoint, everyone who gets suckered to the pumps or panics in the dumps, plays inoptimally. The one who supports the price below 316 and provides coins for sale above it, plays optimally.

However, there is the danger that the price will go flash crash and then to terminal decline. If you believe this is the case with high enough probability, you should aim to sell, and you cannot ask for 316 if you want volume. 310 average might be possible for small lots and higher slippage for higher ones.

If the attack does not materialize or comes out weaker than expected, the price may also be ready for a rally. Loading up now at the bottom is a good idea, and you should expect to be able to buy at about 322.

With the BTC rise * XMR rise, we are back around the pre-threat price in fiat.  It seems the market may have now fully discounted the threat.

[rdnkjdi]

It was kinda nice to buy back in at not more than I sold off.  I was a little surprised that there wasn't a larger jump in price.  Which means (to me) the market never priced in the attack.

Or maybe it was artificially held up by some whales?

[OrientA]

It was kinda nice to buy back in at not more than I sold off.  I was a little surprised that there wasn't a larger jump in price.  Which means (to me) the market never priced in the attack.

Or maybe it was artificially held up by some whales?

There is still a threat of forking.

[NewLiberty]

It was kinda nice to buy back in at not more than I sold off.  I was a little surprised that there wasn't a larger jump in price.  Which means (to me) the market never priced in the attack.

Or maybe it was artificially held up by some whales?

There is still a threat of forking.

[wachtwoord]

We're almost there, but not quite yet.

[rdnkjdi]

Monero is not a shitty pump and dump to be dropped just because some threats of a narcissist idiot.

If you think BCX is "just" a narcissist[ic] idiot then I would encourage you to do more digging.  Narcissist sure.  Idiot not so much.  Narcissist with tons of resources who likes to blow up coins would be a more accurate description.  Which is a bad combination for XMR.

Also XMR is centralized to three pools that make less than $600 a day combined.  Which means the economic incentive to keep XMR secure is less than $600 a day.  Might be something the MEW wants to take a look at from an economic perspective.

I am back in XMR & supporting it.  But you are another irritating shill. 

P.S.

I suppose the arguement could be made the whales are part of the market - I just find it puzzling that it didn't really factor in the threat.  Or maybe the threat still hasn't blown over?

[rdnkjdi]

fuck you. he threating the coin and indirectly everyone that invested on it, if you want to suck his dick go ahead, you look more pathetic than him now.

no one is asking you to support XMR, you are in because you want.

I really am 100% unable to tell if you are a troll or a shill.

Regardless.  Any coin that expects to actually make it into the top 10 market cap should view it as it's responsibility to secure itself.  Not the application of moral law to all human beings around the globe.  Just seems self evident to me.  If you make the claim of wanting to be secure - but then don't welcome attacks as a challenge to be overcome then it makes one question if the coin wants to be secure or only wants the perception of being secure.

If you want something that relies on centralized authorities enforcing moral code - I would highly recommend fiat as there are (many) fewer risks involve.

No idea what any of that has to do with fetalio.

[infofront]

It was kinda nice to buy back in at not more than I sold off.  I was a little surprised that there wasn't a larger jump in price.  Which means (to me) the market never priced in the attack.

Or maybe it was artificially held up by some whales?

The attack was priced in. The weak hands dumped the price down to 290 or so. Most of us just have too much faith in our devs and community to dump every time there's FUD. If whales had any effect on the price, it was just from buying up cheap coins to make money, like many others did.


I'd expect the price to go up to 400+ within the next week, depending on the length of the FUD attack, then sink a bit as the market finds support. If the attack ends definitively and beneficially for XMR, I'd imagine we could see an even higher spike. Where the bitcoin price goes from here will also influence things.  

[oda.krell]

fuck you. he threating the coin and indirectly everyone that invested on it, if you want to suck his dick go ahead, you look more pathetic than him now.

no one is asking you to support XMR, you are in because you want.

I really am 100% unable to tell if you are a troll or a shill.

Regardless.  Any coin that expects to actually make it into the top 10 market cap should view it as it's responsibility to secure itself.  Not the application of moral law to all human beings around the globe.  Just seems self evident to me.  If you make the claim of wanting to be secure - but then don't welcome attacks as a challenge to be overcome then it makes one question if the coin wants to be secure or only wants the perception of being secure.

If you want something that relies on centralized authorities enforcing moral code - I would highly recommend fiat as there are (many) fewer risks involve.

No idea what any of that has to do with fetalio.

I think Nekomata was under the impression that you are defending BCX behavior, as morally justified, which I'm pretty sure you are not.

You are (correctly, imo) pointing out that security in an open-source decentralized environment can't be achieved through an appeal to a higher authority, based on a claim of moral superiority, which in some posts seems to be the implicit premise.

In crypto, security can be achieved as a collective effort only, which is a scary thought only if one assumes that the majority (of users, computing power, etc.) is malicious.

[infofront]

In crypto, security can be achieved as a collective effort only, which is a scary thought only if one assumes that the majority (of users, computing power, etc.) is malicious.

That's a scary assumption too, but maybe a correct one.

[OrientA]

Monero is not a shitty pump and dump to be dropped just because some threats of a narcissist idiot.

If you think BCX is "just" a narcissist[ic] idiot then I would encourage you to do more digging.  Narcissist sure.  Idiot not so much.  Narcissist with tons of resources who likes to blow up coins would be a more accurate description.  Which is a bad combination for XMR.

Also XMR is centralized to three pools that make less than $600 a day combined.  Which means the economic incentive to keep XMR secure is less than $600 a day.  Might be something the MEW wants to take a look at from an economic perspective.

I am back in XMR & supporting it.  But you are another irritating shill. 

P.S.

I suppose the arguement could be made the whales are part of the market - I just find it puzzling that it didn't really factor in the threat.  Or maybe the threat still hasn't blown over?

It is a dilemma here. If the price of the coin is not high enough, miners will not mine, the network is not secured.

[oda.krell]

In crypto, security can be achieved as a collective effort only, which is a scary thought only if one assumes that the majority (of users, computing power, etc.) is malicious.

That's a scary assumption too, but maybe a correct one.

Some would add that, if a (relevant) majority is malicious anyway, no system based on higher authority is going to rein them in anyway.


EDIT: meandering dangerously close to off-topic, I am... sorry smooth.

[rdnkjdi]

Some would add that, if a (relevant) majority is malicious anyway, no system based on higher authority is going to rein them in anyway.

Perhaps I'm out of line but I don't really think in terms of crypto actors as "malicious" or "benevolent".  But more in terms of self interest.  If the majority of the computing power involved in a crypto is in it for their best interest (which stands to reason).  Then their best interests will line up with protecting the network (vs destroying it).  

What we had with BCX was a joker type personality.  I think maybe that's where I'm offending people.  I'm not angry at BCX trying to destroy my coin.  I just view him as an environmental variable that needs to be dealt with and if a coin cannot deal with it then it lacks the security needed to survive.  

I don't understand where the anger towards him comes from.

It is a dilemma here. If the price of the coin is not high enough, miners will not mine, the network is not secured.

The weakness here in my opinion really wasn't that we didn't have enough hashpower but that

1 - The hashpower was centralized at three points of failure.  This is the pool problem which even bitcoin hasn't solved.  This is a technical issue IMO that still needs to be worked out - litecoin made some strides with P2P (AFAIK this isn't supported in crytponote yet).  I'm NOT suggesting this needs to be added.  Devs already have too much on their plate.  Poor guys.

2 - The financial interest of the pools AFAIK are just the fees they collect from the miners.  Which I estimated to not be more than $200ish a day.  So really you have $600 a day in incentives as the gatekeepers to protecting a $5 mil market cap.  Bitcoin is slightly ahead in this area as the pools have larger incentives (cloud mining, etc).

This opens attack vectors that have nothing to do with how much mining power the coin has.  It would probably be more secure with half the hashrate solo mining.

The added attack vectors (that I can think of) are

DDoS the pools
Hack the pools
Bribe the pools
Quietly buy the pools

[Cryptobro]

I don't understand where the anger towards him comes from.

Because he's behaving like a bully, and no one like a bully.