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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
aminorex
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September 17, 2014, 05:51:08 PM
 #661

Ideally during the early stages one wants to see a small steady rise in price rather than a speculative boom bust cycle
I tend to agree, but I'd like to know your reasons.  Also, to ask:  Is there any point where this would not be desirable?  I should think it always desirable.  It is intrinsically unsustainable, however.

RP's options and market-making activities, and the hitbtc market making incentives, may have contributed substantially to the decline in volatility -- they certainly correlate in time -- but it is perhaps impossible to segregate the factors with useful clarity.  

The stabilization of mining growth is obscure to me, although perhaps it is motivated by wanting to buy XMR with a credit card.  XMR always seems to be just shy of break-even, lately, no matter how much the hash rises.

Emission is declining 14 bp/diem at present.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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aminorex
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September 17, 2014, 05:54:25 PM
 #662

what incentive should an early buyer have tohold a coin when a S-cure is used?

S-curve emmission is in my opinion only possible with a central institution (call this a weakness or a strength of a social contract in cryptocurrencies)

The curve can be implemented in code, and hence distributed.  The same central institution is always present:  The development process.  The curve can be implemented so as to automatically calibrate itself on the basis of transaction activity, although that can be gamed (and counter-gamed). 

The biggest problems are (1) complexity -> unexpected consequences, and (2) unpredictability -> lack of investor interest.

Anyhow, it's a suitable pretext for a new alt-coin, as the traffic goes.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 17, 2014, 05:56:54 PM
 #663

The stabilization of mining growth is obscure to me, although perhaps it is motivated by wanting to buy XMR with a credit card.  XMR always seems to be just shy of break-even, lately, no matter how much the hash rises.

Emission is declining 14 bp/diem at present.

The mining revenue is about 10% below the electricity cost for me. That is quite stable for about a month.
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September 17, 2014, 06:42:01 PM
 #664

what incentive should an early buyer have tohold a coin when a S-cure is used?

S-curve emmission is in my opinion only possible with a central institution (call this a weakness or a strength of a social contract in cryptocurrencies)

it can be achieved without central instutution... Hard coded limits can be programmed.

For example: the high emission rate will only start when the hashrate crossed a certain point. It's all possible to programm Smiley

But this has nothing to do anymore with the XMR speculation, so let's stop this discussion here Wink

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September 17, 2014, 06:48:56 PM
 #665

"they" are FUDing the "new" (from July) XMR (CN) exploit in the Polo trollbox.

I couldn't help myself and bought more at what looks like the panic bottom of 382
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September 17, 2014, 06:54:02 PM
 #666

"they" are FUDing the "new" (from July) XMR (CN) exploit in the Polo trollbox.

I couldn't help myself and bought more at what looks like the panic bottom of 382

Likewise.  It's like we're blessed or something.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 17, 2014, 06:54:20 PM
 #667

"they" are FUDing the "new" (from July) XMR (CN) exploit in the Polo trollbox.

I couldn't help myself and bought more at what looks like the panic bottom of 382

Buy support dropped by 50%?  Guess BCX still carries weight
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September 17, 2014, 07:05:38 PM
 #668

The danger with a very early boom bust cycle is that is can do a lot of damage to a coin before there is a strong enough community to deal with the aftermath. There are very few who can show a positive return and a large quantity of "bag holders". The perception then is that the coin is in terminal decline. An interesting case is DOGE that was launched very close to the XBT/USD peak. This has led to what is seen by many as a coin that has been in a bear market since its inception. My take in the case of DOGE is that this has less to do with the intrinsic merit or lack thereof of DOGE and more with the unfortunate timing of its release. Nevertheless the DOGE community has to overcome this perception. If the boom bust cycle happens when the coin is more mature then the recovery becomes much easier.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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September 17, 2014, 07:34:24 PM
 #669

"they" are FUDing the "new" (from July) XMR (CN) exploit in the Polo trollbox.

I couldn't help myself and bought more at what looks like the panic bottom of 382

Buy support dropped by 50%?  Guess BCX still carries weight


There goes the speculation we knew until now... Tongue Hope the whole thing was a mistake. Then XMR would be even stronger.

Until then...
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September 17, 2014, 07:50:47 PM
 #670

i guess xmr will drop to below 250  Embarrassed
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September 17, 2014, 07:51:10 PM
 #671

Can someone link to this BCX thing and why he has any credibility?

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September 17, 2014, 07:52:39 PM
 #672

Can someone link to this BCX thing and why he has any credibility?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=786201.0

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September 17, 2014, 08:07:33 PM
 #673

As to credibility, he's found exploits before, and used them before. However, he also likes to come on the forum and pad his ego.
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September 17, 2014, 09:06:37 PM
 #674

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...
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September 17, 2014, 09:07:36 PM
 #675

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...

capitulation?  Pfffft
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September 17, 2014, 09:09:25 PM
 #676

As to credibility, he's found exploits before, and used them before. However, he also likes to come on the forum and pad his ego.

he talked about this specific exploit in july and no one cared. we will see how this works out. maybe he is right but I do not see his motivation in what he is doing
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September 17, 2014, 09:14:30 PM
 #677

As to credibility, he's found exploits before, and used them before. However, he also likes to come on the forum and pad his ego.

he talked about this specific exploit in july and no one cared. we will see how this works out. maybe he is right but I do not see his motivation in what he is doing

No, he talked about a difficulty adjustment exploit. This one's new.

I'll be looking through his posts to find what we're both talking about, and update it here. Unless you get to it first.

here it is: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=522235.msg7998410#msg7998410

here again: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=522235.msg8020920#msg8020920

No mention of a keyring exploit.
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September 17, 2014, 09:15:03 PM
 #678

As to credibility, he's found exploits before, and used them before. However, he also likes to come on the forum and pad his ego.

he talked about this specific exploit in july and no one cared. we will see how this works out. maybe he is right but I do not see his motivation in what he is doing

its called the 500K litecoins he owns.

duh
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September 17, 2014, 11:30:35 PM
 #679

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...

Not sure if it was much of a capitulation, but the rebound does seem to be in...
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September 17, 2014, 11:47:22 PM
 #680

If this is indeed FUD, then we are witnessing market capitulation with strong rebound pending...

Not sure if it was much of a capitulation, but the rebound does seem to be in...

27K dumped in one 5m candle was pretty impressive. 
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