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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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luigi1111
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August 29, 2014, 10:23:38 PM
 #221

Combining posts...
A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.



Basically the argument is that "bunch of coins mined over a few months to a year" = more participants than "bunch of coins mined in a few days", which should lead to better distribution as well as much better perception. It's only one piece of the distribution schedule, but it is largely responsible for public perception (and XMR can get negative perception as well for its defined curve, just that it didn't go way outside of what was defined like DRK did).

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.

This is kinda nonsense, as you are pretty apparently comparing to DRK (at 50% of current supply, which isn't even true anymore), but their community (of which I am a part as well) is quite big and active. They have the longest thread in the entire altcoin section. The other part of it is, absolutely some people got XMR at super cheap prices. I was one of them.

You are spot on about fast emission keeping price relatively low for early adopters/accumulators.
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August 29, 2014, 10:31:43 PM
 #222

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Your argument basically comes down to centralized systems being more efficient and mining being inefficient. That might be true in an ideal world without the possibility of fraud or abuse. It isn't true in the real world.


Emit 10-20% of the coins over a period of 1-2 months. Then, emit the remaining 80-90% over a long time frame. Are coins more concentrated in the hands of early adopters? Yes. This is a good thing! Reward those who were there at the start! Who cares what people are wary of, the majority of people are morons who cannot properly distinguish between something that is a scam, and something that isn't. Catering to them is of no relevance. The things that actually deliver results will succeed regardless of what the vast herd of sheep think.
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August 29, 2014, 10:31:47 PM
 #223

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher?  Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

 

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August 29, 2014, 10:36:14 PM
 #224

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers.

There is a parable about this, but I couldn't remember where it comes from so I can't quote it properly.

But the thrust of it is that if something seems useless to you, you probably don't fully understand the purpose of it. Only when you can clearly understand and explain the argument in favor of something should you decide you are opposed to it, or vice versa. In fact most things that are worse for everyone doesn't even exist in the world. Ideas that dumb are quickly abandoned. So there must be someone for whom this is better. Try to figure out who that is and why.

Thinking that something is crazy or is worse for everyone when other obviously intelligent people disagree should be a clue that you don't understand it entirely. This doesn't mean you have to change your mind ultimately, but at least open it a crack.


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August 29, 2014, 10:38:34 PM
 #225

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher?  Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

 

No you are correct on absolute numbers of coins emitted, I was referring to inflation figures (which ARE relevant, but we can argue HOW relevant Tongue).

However, given LTC's numbers, it could only support an XMR price of about .014! 0.0105*(28,000/21,000)

Edit: forgive my fail formula (which smooth quoted next page). Number was correct, formula not.
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August 29, 2014, 10:39:10 PM
 #226

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher?  Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

 

No you are correct on absolute numbers of coins emitted, I was referring to inflation figures (which ARE relevant, but we can argue HOW relevant Tongue).

However, given LTC's numbers, it could only support an XMR price of about .014! (0.0105/0.0043)*(28,000/21,000)

(Almost) 3x is an acceptable short term return.
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August 29, 2014, 10:42:05 PM
 #227

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher?  Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

 

Don't forget the amount of outstanding LTC is 3 times that of Monero. Therefore the mining of Monero is a far larger increase percentage wise.
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August 29, 2014, 10:44:20 PM
 #228

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher?  Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

 

No you are correct on absolute numbers of coins emitted, I was referring to inflation figures (which ARE relevant, but we can argue HOW relevant Tongue).

However, given LTC's numbers, it could only support an XMR price of about .014! 0.0105*(28,000/21,000)

(Almost) 3x is an acceptable short term return.

(actually about 3.25x) I agree and think that's not a bad target short term. I'm trying to present it in opposition to the argument (whether anyone actually presented said argument directly) that LTC's daily influx could support much higher prices.
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August 29, 2014, 10:45:41 PM
 #229

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers.


Thinking that something is crazy or is worse for everyone when other obviously intelligent people disagree should be a clue that you don't understand it entirely. This doesn't mean you have to change your mind ultimately, but at least open it a crack.




This is what I tell people who start in with the whole "these politicians are crazy/inept/stupid to have passed this bill" etc.  
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August 29, 2014, 10:46:08 PM
 #230

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.
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August 29, 2014, 10:47:08 PM
 #231

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?
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August 29, 2014, 10:48:59 PM
 #232

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers.


Thinking that something is crazy or is worse for everyone when other obviously intelligent people disagree should be a clue that you don't understand it entirely. This doesn't mean you have to change your mind ultimately, but at least open it a crack.




This is what I tell people who start in with the whole "these politicians are crazy/inept/stupid to have passed this bill" etc.  


Crazy like a fox usually.
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August 29, 2014, 11:00:40 PM
 #233

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

After your posts of about a month ago it's good to see that you have keep an open mind and have done some due diligence.

The part of your post I don't understand and that nobody has commented on is your arbitrary selected value of $100.  The current value is $2.20/coin which would be $44,000 per day versus $2,000,000 in your example. 
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August 29, 2014, 11:23:44 PM
 #234

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?


In 10 years will anyone care if it was fairly mined?  BCN is only 3 satoshi.  How much risk can there be in that?  And emission is mostly over, so inflation is not a problem.  It seems you and bytecoin were made for each other.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 29, 2014, 11:41:29 PM
 #235

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 




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August 30, 2014, 12:07:31 AM
 #236

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?


In 10 years will anyone care if it was fairly mined?  BCN is only 3 satoshi.  How much risk can there be in that?  And emission is mostly over, so inflation is not a problem.  It seems you and bytecoin were made for each other.
Well, with Bytecoin there was deception, which ruined all of its credibility. Yes, I'll agree that an 82% premine can hurt a coin's chances, especially when it's released in a very incomplete state. They were just asking for someone to rebrand the project.
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August 30, 2014, 12:10:47 AM
 #237

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 

Thanks for the clarification Smiley

My condolences on the Keynesian condition. I hope someday we find a cure (should I throw cold water on myself now? Tongue)
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August 30, 2014, 01:24:11 AM
 #238

Brilliantrocket may i tell you how much i hate you for fuding monero so much back then thinking that it was just another coin with 'anon' title while its tech was vastly superior from the start? What was happening with Darkcoin was clear! Anyway if you indeed invest on XMR welcome aboard Tongue

I also support what nakaone said. The emission looks good enough so that the price isnt very big right now and more people will have time to get in and it is good enough so that mining in a year from now wont be too much to bring the price down.


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August 30, 2014, 01:57:13 AM
Last edit: August 30, 2014, 02:13:24 AM by Brilliantrocket
 #239

Brilliantrocket may i tell you how much i hate you for fuding monero so much back then thinking that it was just another coin with 'anon' title while its tech was vastly superior from the start? What was happening with Darkcoin was clear! Anyway if you indeed invest on XMR welcome aboard Tongue

I also support what nakaone said. The emission looks good enough so that the price isnt very big right now and more people will have time to get in and it is good enough so that mining in a year from now wont be too much to bring the price down.



I don't think I ever denied that Cryptonote is superior in terms of anonymity. I may have said things like Darkcoin's anonymity is good enough for most people. At this point it's completely uncertain how masternode payment enforcement will happen or when. I'm of the opinion that if it doesn't happen, Darkcoin is as good as dead. Kind of worrying for something so fundamental to not be figured out nearly 9 months into the project. That's why I'm opening up to Monero.
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August 30, 2014, 02:32:56 AM
 #240

Just got information Monero was mentioned in the Bitcoin bullbear report, it's the only altcoin except LTC ever mentioned.

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