[XMR] Monero Speculation

[GreekBitcoin]

I'm very happy to see that the pool that donates most to the developers is increasing fast. Everyone who is mining for other than instant profit should mine there I think.

I agree. And actually 2 days ago i started mining there. But why post that on the speculation thread?

[Jungian]

I'm very happy to see that the pool that donates most to the developers is increasing fast. Everyone who is mining for other than instant profit should mine there I think.

I agree. And actually 2 days ago i started mining there. But why post that on the speculation thread?

Posted it in the wrong thread! But I guess it has some value, as it bodes well for the future with more funds. The moderator should maybe delete it

[Okurkabinladin]

There is an absolutely perfect 50% retracement just put into place in Poloniex: from 0.00510000 to 0.00400000, with previous bottom at 0.00290000. This means that regardless whether we just hit a mid-move bottom (which in this case will not necessarily ever be visited again) or a downward resistance that will be breached later, the next move is resolutely UP, and the fibonacci possibilities are:

38.2% = 442
50% = 455
61.8% = 468
76.4% = 484.

If these are cleared, it is good possibility that this was a bear trap in large proportions. If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

[vuduchyld]

There is an absolutely perfect 50% retracement just put into place in Poloniex: from 0.00510000 to 0.00400000, with previous bottom at 0.00290000. This means that regardless whether we just hit a mid-move bottom (which in this case will not necessarily ever be visited again) or a downward resistance that will be breached later, the next move is resolutely UP, and the fibonacci possibilities are:

38.2% = 442
50% = 455
61.8% = 468
76.4% = 484.

If these are cleared, it is good possibility that this was a bear trap in large proportions. If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.

Looks like quite a bit of buy support is forming here that might hold up (within a few percent of .00400, anyway).  I'd suspect the last order I placed may not get filled.  If it does, I get even MOAR accumulated.  If not, we'll see what happens to that resistance!

[aminorex]

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.  I can't see why XMR should trade with a high correlation with BTC once you can buy it and trade it against fiat.  The transparent and private liquidity markets are largely decoupled, in their fundamentals.  Any coupling tends to compromise privacy, after all.  That may take a while yet to become manifest, however.  The exchange mechanisms need to exist, and become usable.

[vuduchyld]

I actually utilized the Poloniex market for NXT/XMR today.  Had some NXT I didn't really want and managed to sell some, receiving XMR in exchange.  Probably could have accumulated a few more XMR if I'd sold the NXT for BTC, then used the BTC to buy XMR, but it was only 2348 NXT.  Thought I'd give that market some action!

[georgehosterguy]

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.  I can't see why XMR should trade with a high correlation with BTC once you can buy it and trade it against fiat.  The transparent and private liquidity markets are largely decoupled, in their fundamentals.  Any coupling tends to compromise privacy, after all.  That may take a while yet to become manifest, however.  The exchange mechanisms need to exist, and become usable.

One issue I see (could be wrong) but the powers that be who allow exchanges to take fiat and exchange for crypto.  I can see them allowing bitcoin - but not Monero.  Or eventually shutting it down.  Or at the very least Monero being unwanted by exchanges who are trying to operate within the good graces of the IRS etc & limiting you to a few crapsty exchanges.

In that case there might be local monero - but bitcoin serving as the gateway will hold monero down imo

[Brilliantrocket]

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.  I can't see why XMR should trade with a high correlation with BTC once you can buy it and trade it against fiat.  The transparent and private liquidity markets are largely decoupled, in their fundamentals.  Any coupling tends to compromise privacy, after all.  That may take a while yet to become manifest, however.  The exchange mechanisms need to exist, and become usable.

One issue I see (could be wrong) but the powers that be who allow exchanges to take fiat and exchange for crypto.  I can see them allowing bitcoin - but not Monero.  Or eventually shutting it down.  Or at the very least Monero being unwanted by exchanges who are trying to operate within the good graces of the IRS etc & limiting you to a few crapsty exchanges.

In that case there might be local monero - but bitcoin serving as the gateway will hold monero down imo

If US based exchanges cannot have Monero trading, foreign or decentralized exchanges will fill the gap. I don't really see it as a big issue.

[georgehosterguy]

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.  I can't see why XMR should trade with a high correlation with BTC once you can buy it and trade it against fiat.  The transparent and private liquidity markets are largely decoupled, in their fundamentals.  Any coupling tends to compromise privacy, after all.  That may take a while yet to become manifest, however.  The exchange mechanisms need to exist, and become usable.

One issue I see (could be wrong) but the powers that be who allow exchanges to take fiat and exchange for crypto.  I can see them allowing bitcoin - but not Monero.  Or eventually shutting it down.  Or at the very least Monero being unwanted by exchanges who are trying to operate within the good graces of the IRS etc & limiting you to a few crapsty exchanges.

In that case there might be local monero - but bitcoin serving as the gateway will hold monero down imo

If US based exchanges cannot have Monero trading, foreign or decentralized exchanges will fill the gap. I don't really see it as a big issue.

So to get money to Monero I still have to go thru bitcoin gateway.

[aminorex]

In that case there might be local monero - but bitcoin serving as the gateway will hold monero down imo

If US based exchanges cannot have Monero trading, foreign or decentralized exchanges will fill the gap. I don't really see it as a big issue.

So to get money to Monero I still have to go thru bitcoin gateway.

local monero, done in the manner of localbitcoins.com, would be decentralized exchange (not a decentralized exchange, but decentralized exchange) without BTC involved.

In any case there is less coupling of the markets when BTC is used as a mere transmission mechanism as opposed to a savings store.  Anything that results in more flow BTC and less hoard BTC being used to buy monero tends to decouple the markets.

Is NxtAE/mgw adaptible to this end?  I suspect all it requires is a market-maker.

[ArticMine]

Bearish scenario is unravelling for Bitcoin, so far, no ALT was ever able to resist cash flight in such circumstances. I believe XMR will recover (and reach new heights) only, when BTC resumes its growth. We are talking weeks, not hours.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.  I can't see why XMR should trade with a high correlation with BTC once you can buy it and trade it against fiat.  The transparent and private liquidity markets are largely decoupled, in their fundamentals.  Any coupling tends to compromise privacy, after all.  That may take a while yet to become manifest, however.  The exchange mechanisms need to exist, and become usable.

One issue I see (could be wrong) but the powers that be who allow exchanges to take fiat and exchange for crypto.  I can see them allowing bitcoin - but not Monero.  Or eventually shutting it down.  Or at the very least Monero being unwanted by exchanges who are trying to operate within the good graces of the IRS etc & limiting you to a few crapsty exchanges.

In that case there might be local monero - but bitcoin serving as the gateway will hold monero down imo

I doubt there is going to be a different regulatory regime for Monero than for Bitcoin. The regulators are going to require the same AML/KNC in both cases and exchanges can avoid issues simply by requiring that crypto-currency withdrawals and deposits be to and from an address controlled by the owner of the account. A barrier to adoption of Monero by exchanges may actually be technical since Monero and other CryptoNote coins require additional programming on the part of the exchange for proper implementation.

Edit: IANAL I suspect that an exchange such as the, United States based, Poloniex will have way more regulatory risk in the United States with something like the SuperNET IPO - ICO https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=762346.msg8648210#msg8648210 than they will ever have with Monero.

[saddambitcoin]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

[blaaaaacksuit]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

The most obvious explanation tends to be the right one.

[Melbustus]

...
I doubt there is going to be a different regulatory regime for Monero than for Bitcoin.
...

Do you remember when Lawsky pondered during the NYDFS hearings early this year, something to the effect of: "...maybe we should require that all virtual currencies use a transparent ledger."

Regulators have been aware of the possibility of true-privacy coins for some time (the reference was in response to theorizing about Zerocoin, IIRC, during the hearings), and the unique challenges, vis-a-vis bitcoin, that they pose for regulation.

Hence my theory that the inevitable rise of a dominant and actually-utilized anon coin is bullish for bitcoin: regulators will embrace bitcoin at the expense of anon coins.

[Melbustus]

...
I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same.
...

That just means LTC is fundamentally irrelevant. It's just (unfortunately) taking this rise of new alt/app coins that *attempt* to do something meaningfully different for all the weak-minds around here to realize it.

Edit: Didn't mean to assert that you, aminorex, are one of the "weak-minds", obv. Just realized it may have come across that way. :/

[Melbustus]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

Because they're whales and don't want to babysit exchanges. They'll check back in a month or two and see what happened.

[smooth]

...
I can see why LTC would trade a high correlation to BTC, forever:  It is fundamentally the same. 
...

That just means LTC is fundamentally irrelevant. It's just (unfortunately) taking this rise of new alt/app coins that *attempt* to do something meaningfully different for all the weak-minds around here to realize it.

Yes I agree. It shouldn't correlate with BTC because it should just trade down to zero. If there is a good case for network-effect, it is two otherwise-identical coins. The larger network will destroy the smaller one. How long it takes the rats to get off the sinking ship remains to be seen.

[NewLiberty]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

Possibly hoping to accomplish selling them for 144 BTC at some time.
Some folks like to have all their coins up for sale/purchase just in case.

[rpietila]

If you have XMR, yet want to put a lid on its rise (for example: in the process of acquiring more), listing them for sale is very reasonable. It costs you little extra, and if some part of them are listed lower, you can actually let them fill to gain extra income from the waves. While they are just sitting there, they count towards indicators such as bid depth, attract more traders, keep the price in the desired range etc.

Also, when it is time to sell, it is not proven whether a wall is better or worse than incremental selling. Often there is a buyer for the whole wall at the same time, so that it functions as an attractor that may be bought 5%, even 10% away from market, resulting in a very good trade for the seller.

[rpietila]

We have made a quadruple bottom in 394-397 range, after bouncing once from 400 first, and very recently from 401 also.

The bottoming process seems quite complete to me. Therefore I dare to predict that the next move is up, towards some of the various fibonacci levels between 510->394->X.

It is impossible to say now if the monthly high was just made in 510, or if this was a more-vicious-than-normal battle in preparation for taking down 580. My understanding is that 510 is currently the zone to watch. Should we blast through, the battle of 580 is actually won already. Most resistance will be in 450-480 area.