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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3247649 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
oda.krell
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August 24, 2014, 12:04:26 AM
 #21


Do we want to a) call this "trolling / FUD", and b) removed it from the thread?

It is trolling / FUD, Bitcoin is the pseudo-anonymous coin, start removing it now or it'll turn into caos like before
delete his comment too pls, its offtopic.

In other words, you want this thread to be one big group of investors patting each other on the back for investing in the bestest coin ever.

I seriously hope that's not the opinion of the thread starter, and I hope you realize that you're running the risk of causing real damage to the perception of the XMR community if you want to censor critical questions and remarks by "outsiders".

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rikkejohn
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August 24, 2014, 12:10:15 AM
 #22

Well this is very much on topic. I would like to know if anyone can answer how Monero replaced LTC at Poloniex as the second trading coin?

I could speculate (like the title of this thread asks me to do), but someone must have an answer.

LTC/Altpairs simply had not volume there, poloniex is a small exchange. LTC is on nearly all big exchanges so there´s no need to trade it on polo.
LTC/Altpairs failed, no one traded it and they simply tried XMR than because it is the coin with the most volume there.

No conspiracy involved there. Simple business decision from Poloniex.


There was a pitiful amount of coins for LTC to trade against. It got stuff like Corgi. So of course, volume would be low.

I don't visit Poloniex anymore, mainly because I am all in LTC (lol) so there is no reason to trade.

Last time I checked, XMR wasn't setting the exchange on fire with its own market.

I understand the idea of adding a coin as well as LTC   ... Cryptsy did it with XPM, a few with Doge and Bittrex with BC (I think).

I can't fathom dumping LTC for a coin with just a few months under its belt that is not even traded on Cryptsy.

My guess is that XMR trades about 80% of its volume on Poloniex. If true, this begs the question why a small(ish) exchange is the one with all the volume?

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oda.krell
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August 24, 2014, 12:11:39 AM
 #23

Yes, fuck off if you want to troll with BS, come with facts and data or GTFO.

You realize you're the one who looks like the false flag troll right now, planted in here to make XMR look bad.

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August 24, 2014, 12:13:47 AM
 #24

Personally, I'd say that is not trolling or FUD.  I'm not the thread starter, so I don't get a vote.  If I did, I'd say that post in and of itself isn't begging for removal.  Depends on what comes after.  If it starts a little third grade slap fight like we frequently see, it might be worth removing.  

Also worth noting who posts it.  Oda.Krell is one thing--a poster with a loooooong record of adding value to the community., J1mb0 is something else entirely.
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August 24, 2014, 12:15:44 AM
 #25

The anonymity thing is rather suspect, too.

I don't use Monero, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt on the client capacities.

However, people with names send money to exchanges who require names and emails. They keep records of trades made. And as far as i know, you can't mine it in secret.

So it's not really anonymous, is it?

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oda.krell
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August 24, 2014, 12:21:41 AM
 #26

Personally, I'd say that is not trolling or FUD.  I'm not the thread starter, so I don't get a vote.  If I did, I'd say that post in and of itself isn't begging for removal.  Depends on what comes after.  If it starts a little third grade slap fight like we frequently see, it might be worth removing.  

Also worth noting who posts it.  Oda.Krell is one thing--a poster with a loooooong record of adding value to the community., J1mb0 is something else entirely.

Thanks for the kind words.

In the case of the quote I posted, note that user Wachtwoord is an extremely valuable member of the BTC community. His style of posting was abrasive, sure, but he asked absolutely valid questions imo. Deleting such contributions would be a major mistake, and would make sure I personally wouldn't want to post in the thread anymore - chilling effect, and such.

EDIT: I should perhaps clarify, I picked the "anonymous or not" quote not because I wanted to start that particular discussion again, but because I wanted to use it to discuss (through an example) what is legitimate criticism in this thread, and what is trolling/FUD.

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GreekBitcoin
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August 24, 2014, 12:22:41 AM
 #27

Poloniex was the first big exchange to list monero there. Actually it was third because cryptonotexchange was created for that purpose and traded only XMR and BCN and swaphole (a tiny exchange and with very bad name) listed it a few days before. Thats why. Volume was big and continues to be big. Poloniex tweeted that monero volume helped them pay back some bitcoins that had been stolen from them some months ago...

 
othe
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August 24, 2014, 12:23:27 AM
 #28

Quote
I can't fathom dumping LTC for a coin with just a few months under its belt that is not even traded on Cryptsy.

My guess is that XMR trades about 80% of its volume on Poloniex. If true, this begs the question why a small(ish) exchange is the one with all the volume?

Why not dump a coin that brings no volume and just costs money for support...makes no sense.
First mover advantage, same reason BTC-E still has a lot of LTC volume.

Who cares about cryptsy, they take months to add non Bitcoin clones and don´t have much volume anymore.

The anonymity thing is rather suspect, too.

I don't use Monero, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt on the client capacities.

However, people with names send money to exchanges who require names and emails. They keep records of trades made. And as far as i know, you can't mine it in secret.

So it's not really anonymous, is it?

All altcoin exchange require are an email... no need to put your normal mail there and thats not an issue at all anyway, i also get cash from the ATM with my atm card registered on my name but can still spend the cash where i want.
I think you simply don´t understand the reason why an online currency should be like cash.

Not sure what u mean you can´t mine it in secret, the pool doesn´t see where the coins go to anyway and no one stops you to mine it through tor or whatever proxy...

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August 24, 2014, 12:24:01 AM
 #29


Do we want to a) call this "trolling / FUD", and b) removed it from the thread?

It is trolling / FUD, Bitcoin is the pseudo-anonymous coin, start removing it now or it'll turn into caos like before
delete his comment too pls, its offtopic.

In other words, you want this thread to be one big group of investors patting each other on the back for investing in the bestest coin ever.

I seriously hope that's not the opinion of the thread starter, and I hope you realize that you're running the risk of causing real damage to the perception of the XMR community if you want to censor critical questions and remarks by "outsiders".

Yes, fuck off if you want to troll with BS, come with facts and data or GTFO.

Nekomata did someone hijack your account?

oda.krell is one of the very few good posters in the btc speculation thread.

I didn't go back and read Wachtwoord's posts but I do remember them as being unreasonable criticisms especially considering the answers he was given.  It was as if he was defending btc which I assume is all he is invested in.  I find it strange if indeed he felt the need to defend btc.
oda.krell
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August 24, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
 #30

I hope smooth delete theses offtopics.

Discussion of what is on-topic or off-topic is on-topic especially at the start.

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rikkejohn
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August 24, 2014, 12:30:05 AM
 #31

The anonymity thing is rather suspect, too.

I don't use Monero, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt on the client capacities.

However, people with names send money to exchanges who require names and emails. They keep records of trades made. And as far as i know, you can't mine it in secret.

So it's not really anonymous, is it?

Its not the Monero job to anonymize outside the network, your point is null

Yes, fuck off if you want to troll with BS, come with facts and data or GTFO.

You realize you're the one who looks like the false flag troll right now, planted in here to make XMR look bad.

and you realize you are the one posting offtopic BS on a deleted FUD right, I don't care if you are Hero member or not, I judge posts on posts based because I don't know you.
I hope smooth delete theses offtopics.

this is not a circlejerk of hero members either, lmao

Well this the first post to take an aggressive attitude, so calling for posts to be deleted could start with yours.

Re: My point

Monero, then, provides an anonymous network, yet to join that network you have to do it in public.

So there is an issue given people have been arguing the privacy issue is ever so important to them.

They don't have nearly as much privacy as some have implied.

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rikkejohn
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August 24, 2014, 12:35:53 AM
 #32

Quote
I can't fathom dumping LTC for a coin with just a few months under its belt that is not even traded on Cryptsy.

My guess is that XMR trades about 80% of its volume on Poloniex. If true, this begs the question why a small(ish) exchange is the one with all the volume?

Why not dump a coin that brings no volume and just costs money for support...makes no sense.
First mover advantage, same reason BTC-E still has a lot of LTC volume.

Who cares about cryptsy, they take months to add non Bitcoin clones and don´t have much volume anymore.

The anonymity thing is rather suspect, too.

I don't use Monero, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt on the client capacities.

However, people with names send money to exchanges who require names and emails. They keep records of trades made. And as far as i know, you can't mine it in secret.

So it's not really anonymous, is it?

All altcoin exchange require are an email... no need to put your normal mail there and thats not an issue at all anyway, i also get cash from the ATM with my atm card registered on my name but can still spend the cash where i want.
I think you simply don´t understand the reason why an online currency should be like cash.

Not sure what u mean you can´t mine it in secret, the pool doesn´t see where the coins go to anyway and no one stops you to mine it through tor or whatever proxy...

Re: Mining

Your IP address is logged, and the authorities could grab that information.

Isn't Tor too slow to mine any coin?

Re: the cash analogy

The same argument applies to all the other cryptocurrencies.

Re: "All altcoin exchanges require are an email"

This is not true, many require documents, or make it so you are almost forced to leave a mobile number or whatever. Increasingly, the bigger exchanges are regulating.

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othe
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August 24, 2014, 12:39:05 AM
 #33

Thats nuts, you can buy monero on your name and still can send it around anonymously, no one can control it.
You can also mine it anonymously if u have the need todo so.

i write it once again, same as CASH.
Or if you don´t like CASH then the same as GOLD.


Quote
Isn't Tor too slow to mine any coin?

Re: the cash analogy

No its not to slow to mine; mining barely uses bandwith; i guess you never mined. all my rigs are running with 3g ethernet sticks.

Quote
The same argument applies to all the other cryptocurrencies.
Quote
Your IP address is logged, and the authorities could grab that information.
No it doesn´t, all other can be traced easily.
IP doesn´t matter, its hard to trace a CN coin after it left the pool...

Quote
This is not true, many require documents, or make it so you are almost forced to leave a mobile number or whatever. Increasingly, the bigger exchanges are regulating.

Of course its true, except for FIAT.

Mintpal, Cryptsy, Polo, bittrex, btc38, btce...never wanted anything for me except for USD/EUR withdraws.

Of course bigger ones like Bitstamp and Kraken etc want docs, thats why i said altcoin exchanges and not bitcoin exchanges.


I think you either don´t want to understand how XMR works or you simply don´t care, doesn´t matter what of the 2 it is but you are trashtalking a coin that you don´t even understand it seems.

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August 24, 2014, 12:43:51 AM
Last edit: August 24, 2014, 01:11:11 AM by kuno
 #34

Quote
I can't fathom dumping LTC for a coin with just a few months under its belt that is not even traded on Cryptsy.

My guess is that XMR trades about 80% of its volume on Poloniex. If true, this begs the question why a small(ish) exchange is the one with all the volume?

Why not dump a coin that brings no volume and just costs money for support...makes no sense.
First mover advantage, same reason BTC-E still has a lot of LTC volume.

Who cares about cryptsy, they take months to add non Bitcoin clones and don´t have much volume anymore.

The anonymity thing is rather suspect, too.

I don't use Monero, so I will give it the benefit of the doubt on the client capacities.

However, people with names send money to exchanges who require names and emails. They keep records of trades made. And as far as i know, you can't mine it in secret.

So it's not really anonymous, is it?

All altcoin exchange require are an email... no need to put your normal mail there and thats not an issue at all anyway, i also get cash from the ATM with my atm card registered on my name but can still spend the cash where i want.
I think you simply don´t understand the reason why an online currency should be like cash.

Not sure what u mean you can´t mine it in secret, the pool doesn´t see where the coins go to anyway and no one stops you to mine it through tor or whatever proxy...

Re: Mining

Your IP address is logged, and the authorities could grab that information.

Isn't Tor too slow to mine any coin?

Re: the cash analogy

The same argument applies to all the other cryptocurrencies.

Re: "All altcoin exchanges require are an email"

This is not true, many require documents, or make it so you are almost forced to leave a mobile number or whatever. Increasingly, the bigger exchanges are regulating.

What we mean by cash is that no one can look at the Monero blockchain and see who paid who. This transaction privacy is the main differentiator between Monero and Bitcoin.

This is not the case for bitcoin or any alts derived from the bitcoin codebase. All transactions are publicly viewable. In parallel to the cash analogy for Monero, you can think of using Bitcoin is like credit card transactions that have been recorded and can be reviewed by other people.
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August 24, 2014, 01:03:28 AM
 #35

...
This is not the case for bitcoin or any alts derived from the bitcoin codebase. All transactions are publicly viewable. In paralell to the cash analogy for Monero, you can think of using Bitcoin is like credit card transactions that have been recorded and can be reviewed by other people.

A better analogy is comparing XBT to cash where the serial number on each bill offered for tender and those received in change is  recorded in a public database, with the additional provision that anyone can print new bills with the requirement that an equivalent amount of existing bills are destroyed.


Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 24, 2014, 02:10:10 AM
 #36

i think the speculation thread should ideally be focused on discussion of topics related to price speculation. the privacy issues are better suited to another thread unless the relate directly to pricing.  however, there is a strong reason to restrict the main thread to announcements of general interest to the community, and there is no other general discussion thread, focused exclusively on xmr, to my knowledge, so i expect this thread to range a bit farther than the topic requires.

it is pretty easy to get xmr which is not feasibly tracable to you, presently, as long as you use an adequately encrypted vpn or mixnet.  in most cases purchases of xmr are made with btc, which is the weakest link.  someone recently bought a few kXMR from me for cash.  they did not use i.p. anonymization,  but it is not feasible to determine whether they own any xmr from observation of network traffic alone.  you would require knowledge of the cash transaction as well, and that would leave a lot of doubt, even then, depending on what tranactions were mined in the days before and after,  how closely the cash transaction corresponded to the crypto transaction, in time and value, and what mixing level was used.

used very wrongly xmr transactions are linkable to i.p.s, but it is easy to avoid.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 24, 2014, 02:10:26 AM
 #37

Things are starting to turn north again

I'm expecting an exciting month  Cool



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August 24, 2014, 12:25:36 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2014, 03:14:15 PM by Its About Sharing
 #38

Things are starting to turn north again

I'm expecting an exciting month  Cool





Pull up a daily chart and notice the move up from August 16 to 20, the volume, was progressively increasing. (great sign)
However, since that time the move up has occurred on decreasing volume. This is not a good sign.
If I was trading I would get out on that divergence.

That said, I am and have been long Monero for a few months now.

IAS

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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August 24, 2014, 12:35:13 PM
 #39

Ok let's get some speculation going.
Black market is a $650 Billion market and if Monero take 1% of that market in the future,  price would have to be atleast 400 USD per coin.
Source: http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

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August 24, 2014, 12:42:08 PM
 #40

Unsure if this belongs in speculation, but what is the theoretical hashrate of the top supercomputers?
ie: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Gene
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_%28supercomputer%29
Has this been discussed before? Before price breakout, network needs to be stronger than a couple of these, correct?
 
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