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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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September 01, 2014, 06:42:45 PM
 #321

I have been wondering, if XMR's emission rate is around 21,024 (14.6 per minute X 60 X 24hours) and the daily volume on Poloniex is often 200-300 BTC, then why isn't the price moving more upwards? We have pretty huge volume, consistently.

To "buy" 21,024 XMR  at the current price of .0044 BTC per would be around 92.5 BTC a day.
I realize it requires more BTC as the price goes up to buy the same amount so we can't really say an average price exists. But what is causing this?
Is it just trading? Can whales be moving coins between one another to add the apparence of volume? (If they wanted to move the price higher they could do a better job.)
Is there a large holder who is continually dumping?

Ideas?

IAS

Let's compare it:

XMR
30d volume = 5,800 BTC
650,000 XMR mined, 30d SMA 0.0037, 2,405 BTC equivalent mined
ratio volume to supply: 2.4


BTC volume is more problematic. Arbitrage links between exchanges are well established, so in principle, all volume (USD, CNY, EUR) counts, but I am not willing to count CNY volume 1:1. There are smarter ways to discount some of the zero-fee volume, but for simplicity sake I'll just say that we probably can agree that Chinese "real" (i.e. human) volume is probably not much lower than USD volume, so I will just double USD volume for the sake of this calculation and be done with it.

BTC
30d volume 840,000 BTC (in USD), x 2
108,000 BTC mined
ratio volume to supply: 15.6

So, by volume alone: no, I don't think we're undervalued.

Thanks, as well to othe.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the buying overcomes the selling.
I understand the emission curve over the next 4 years or so will probably aid in
A nice distribution, a very fair one, relatively speaking.

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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September 01, 2014, 06:50:53 PM
 #322

Is Monero compatible with side-chains? If so, could a Zerocash-like side chain someday be incorporated into Monero, giving users per-transaction options of transparency, pretty good privacy, and total anonymity (provided you trust the Mint)?

Perhaps we will someday have ZeroMonero Minting Ceremonies as we add new Zerocash sidechains to Monero, and people will only accord trust to ZeroMonero that they or their webs-of-trust witnessed being minted honestly.
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September 01, 2014, 07:33:46 PM
 #323

Zerocoin has shown it is possible to create a more anonymous Cryptocurrency than ring signature and coin join implementations, and it is just a matter of time before the first Zerocoin implementations are released into the wild.
Zerocoin has shown that no one knows how to make a trustless currency with better anonymity characteristics than ring signatures allow:  Zerocoin requires trusting the mint.

You are confusing Zerocoin with Zerocash, Zerocoin and Zerocash are two completely different protocols. Zerocoin can be implemented without requiring the trust of a third party using RSA UFOs.

https://wiki.anoncoin.net/RSA_UFO
https://sigterm.no/media/without_trapdoor.pdf
https://github.com/Anoncoin/ufo_client

It has also shown that vaporware trades at a severe discount to a working cryptocurrency.  The market wants private liquidity, and isn't going to wait for Zerocoin.

I see what you mean here, and I agree with you that existing technology > vaporware. However, in this case it is vaporware that people are working very hard to implement into a crypto currency. There is a lot of risk investing in Monero considering people are working on implementing a superior anonymous protocol. The Monero demand, and thus the liquidity it provides, will likely dry up if a more anonymous cryptocurrency comes to market.

I doubt that the market will tolerate the trusted mint.
Again, you are referring to Zerocash, I am referring to Zerocoin.

Quote
Furthermore, I also don't like that it is mainly bot nets providing the majority of the processing power to support the Monero network.
That is an unsubstantiated allegation.

It is just a fact that CPU mined cryptocurrencys are more susceptible to being controlled and mined by bot nets. Bot nets are less profitable on ASIC and GPU mined coins, so it makes more sense for them to be mining CPU algorithms like CryptoNight due to the economics of mining.

Quote
the CryptoNight PoW algorithm and Cryptonote were developed on the deep web
That has been proven false.

Link?

Huh? You've got a few things wrong

I might and that is why I am posting here.. to seek enlightenment. You guys must know something I don't. I do a lot more research on cryptocurrencies than most people, and my research on anonymous cryptocurrencies has led me to these conclusions. Please enlighten me why I am wrong.

1) The majority of the hashrate is not botnets or that can't be confirmed

Yes, it can't be confirmed that is correct, but it is a fact that CPU PoW algorithms are more susceptible to bot net mining than GPU and ASIC mined cryptocurrencies. Monero seems like the most profitable choice for bot net operators at the present time due to its liquidity and market cap. I think it is foolish to assume that they would not choose the most profitable option.

2) Zerocoin was abandoned by it's original dev team in favor of Zerocash(Please read up more on that before making comments, Zerocoin isn't going anywhere)

Again, I have done a ton of research on the subject and it has led me to these conclusions. You might not know that although the people that wrote the Zerocoin white paper have moved onto Zerocash, there are still people working on implementing their original idea of Zerocoin. Zerocash and Zerocoin are two different protocols. Since the white paper and alpha library was released for Zerocoin, there is nothing stopping somebody else from implementing it even though the original developers moved onto Zerocash.

3) Zerocash has a large degree of initial trust(You trust that they developers/people given keys won't join together and doublespend all they want without you ever knowing via it's anonymous structure)

Yes, I know about this already. However, you guys seem to be ignoring the fact that Zerocoin and Zerocash are two different protocols. You can see I already know this as I have listed Zerocash as a bad investment and Zerocoin as a good investment on my Cryptocurrency analysis website:

http://www.cryptoreview.net/cryptocurrency/zerocoin/
http://www.cryptoreview.net/cryptocurrency/zerocash/

4) Zerocash, should it ever be released, would Only offer anonymous transactions(Yes, that's pretty much a bad thing, since even private companies need to keep a record of their transactions etc, Ring Signature(Monero) allows both anonymous sending and regular sending, while Zerocash doesn't which means it likely won't be used by any legitimate companies/institutions)

I seriously doubt anyone in the black market cares about being able to prove a transaction took place, in fact I think they would rather the opposite. You and I know the importance of financial privacy and the bad things that can happen by practicing bad financial privacy methods, but most people are oblivious to this. The sheeple of this world that are still using FIAT, and even a lot of Bitcoin users, are oblivious to the importance of financial privacy. Therefore, it narrows the population of possible Monero adopters to the small group of people that understand the value of financial privacy and the black market. The black market is a much bigger and valuable subgroup, and more people within it will be adopting an anonymous cryptocurrency rather than the general public.

I also think it's silly to think that Monero will be used in a large way by "legit companies/institutions." That space is reserved to Bitcoin for the time being. For that to change, Monero would have to achieve greater liquidity and popularity than Bitcoin. I just don't see that happening... ever... because Monero doesn't provide enough of a benefit over Bitcoin for everyone to switch over.

The same goes with Zerocoin, Anoncoin, or Darkcoin. Anonymous cryptocurrencys will not overtake Bitcoin for the simple fact they are more anonymous, it will take much more than that. I think it is possible that another cryptocurrency eventually surpasses Bitcoin, but Monero is not that cryptocurrency. Simply making transactions more anonymous is not a big enough innovation to overcome the infrastructure and network effect of a crypto currency like Bitcoin. It will require better anonymity couple with many other features and/or improvements to do this.

Basically, Zerocash from what I've read, will probably
Again, Zerocash =/= Zerocoin

1) Fail/never be released
That is the biggest risk Darkcoin and Monero have at the moment I think. I think it is silly just to assume they will fail or never be released, especially when people are working hard to implement them. I think this is my biggest concern here.. it seems a lot of people are putting all their eggs in the Monero basket, when it is not the clear winner of the anonymity wars.

2) Fail because of it's trust issue and doublespending issue
Again, Zerocash =/= Zerocoin

3) Fail because it may be "too anonymous", since they have no option to send coins regularly and that's a very limiting factor when trying to get used by companies, average individuals, agencies, you get the drift.
See my argument above.. that is not really the market that an anonymous cryptocurrency is really tailored for. People that understand the need for financial privacy are few and far between, and are vastly outnumbered by the number of people and the amount of money that flows through the black market... trillions of dollars.

It´s pretty obvious that you don´t get it. Some people prefer to use something that actually exists.
I think it's pretty obvious that you guys assume I don't get it, when I have (maybe/likely) done more research on the subject than you have. I spend days researching cryptocurrencies and different innovative cryptocurrency technologies. This is what my research has led me to conclude. Again, if I am wrong then please point out how I am wrong- I am here seeking enlightenment.

73+ days of research on cryptocurrencies by my count: https://www.dropbox.com/s/u13y9iqssbd0zqf/Bitcointalk%20activity.png

I understand people prefer to use something that exists- because vaporware is unusable. However, you can't disregard that someone releasing a cryptocurrency is a large risk as to the success of Monero. I find it much more likely that a better solution as to anonymity is released than nothing better ever being released at all. Especially considering the hard work that is being done to implement Zerocoin.

Ringsignatures provide good privacy without moonmath, read gmaxwells posts maybe (nullc): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7765455
Or Andytoshis post on stackexchange: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/29471/is-there-any-true-anonymous-cryptocurrencies

Sure, ring signatures are less complicated than zero knowledge proofs, but it doesn't make them any more legitimate. People will have a hard time understanding how they work, but you know what this doesn't matter. Do most people know the details of how airplanes, credit cards, the internet, websites, programs, debit cards, money transmitters, and cell phones work? No, but they are still used on a massive scale because they work and they have been told that they are safe.

As long as a large group of smart people that are able to understand can vouch for the work, then I see no reason why the technology couldn't be adopted. It doesn't mean that everyone has to understand exactly how it works, just as long as it does work is sufficient. 98% of the people in the Bitcoin community have no idea how Bitcoin works on a fundamental level (IE. source code level.) Have you dug through every line of code of Bitcoin to make sure there are no backdoors? Probably not, but you take the word of others that have done so and can understand it.

Care to proof that mainly botnets mine Monero? Most hash seems to be from Claymores GPU miner.
I did not realize that a GPU miner had been released for the CryptoNight PoW algorithm, so that is one thing I have learned thus far since entering this thread. I am not a bad guy and not here to spread FUD, I am just here seeking enlightenment. I take everything I said about bot nets and CPU mining back if it is true that Monero can be GPU mined, as that pushes the bot nets out... not completely, but it makes them a lot less profitable and they'd probably rather mine CPU-only cryptocurrencies.

If this, if that... who cares, if i win the lottery......
It seems like a lot of people are thinking they will win the lottery with Monero and I just dont get it. It seems like a pretty risky play.. much riskier than simply investing in Bitcoin.

PS: Financial privacy is just one of the things XMR tries to accomplish.

That's cool, what else are they trying to accomplish?

---------------------------

Again, I'm not here to spread FUD, I am here to seek enlightenment. There must be something I am not understanding with all the craze behind Monero.. I just don't get it. A lot of you seem to be confusing Zerocash and Zerocoin, and/or thinking that Zerocoin has been completely abandoned. It has been abandoned by its original developers, but there are people still working on it separately.
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September 01, 2014, 07:37:44 PM
 #324

Cryptonite coins using the Cryptonite algo(Monero) can be mined by Both GPU's and very high end  CPU's..

The average CPU will get hardly any xmr per day since the difficulty is so high, not sure what point youre trying to make concerning botnets(which normally use 32 bit low end cpus) coinhoarder.

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September 01, 2014, 07:38:47 PM
 #325

Is Monero compatible with side-chains? If so, could a Zerocash-like side chain someday be incorporated into Monero, giving users per-transaction options of transparency, pretty good privacy, and total anonymity (provided you trust the Mint)?

Perhaps we will someday have ZeroMonero Minting Ceremonies as we add new Zerocash sidechains to Monero, and people will only accord trust to ZeroMonero that they or their webs-of-trust witnessed being minted honestly.

Yes it is possible, but I don't think people will ever get over the fact they need to trust the mint and money can be printed anonymously without anyone ever knowing about it. I think Zerocoin is better at this point in time seeing as though it can be implemented without having to trust a third party.
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September 01, 2014, 07:41:52 PM
 #326

Cryptonite coins using the Cryptonite algo(Monero) can be mined by Both GPU's and very high end  CPU's..

The average CPU will get hardly any xmr per day since the difficulty is so high, not sure what point youre trying to make coinhoarder.

I did not realize a GPU miner had been released. Othe told me that in his reply, and I retracted my statements regarding bot nets and CPU mining in the middle of my previous post.

My apologies- I think my other concerns are valid though.

Quote from: CoinHoarder
Care to proof that mainly botnets mine Monero? Most hash seems to be from Claymores GPU miner.
I did not realize that a GPU miner had been released for the CryptoNight PoW algorithm, so that is one thing I have learned thus far since entering this thread. I am not a bad guy and not here to spread FUD, I am just here seeking enlightenment. I take everything I said about bot nets and CPU mining back if it is true that Monero can be GPU mined, as that pushes the bot nets out... not completely, but it makes them a lot less profitable and they'd probably rather mine CPU-only cryptocurrencies.
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September 01, 2014, 07:45:05 PM
 #327

I just don't get it.

Just read the thread name...

Am I not speculating about Monero here as well? I just have a different opinion than most of you guys I guess. Please explain it to me why I you guys are right and I am wrong. It's just odd that everyone seems so bullish on Monero and there is not one person here voicing bearish concerns...
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September 01, 2014, 07:50:29 PM
 #328

"I also think it's silly to think that Monero will be used in a large way by "legit companies/institutions." That space is reserved to Bitcoin for the time being. For that to change, Monero would have to achieve greater liquidity and popularity than Bitcoin. I just don't see that happening... ever... because Monero doesn't provide enough of a benefit over Bitcoin for everyone to switch over.

The same goes with Zerocoin, Anoncoin, or Darkcoin. Anonymous cryptocurrencys will not overtake Bitcoin for the simple fact they are more anonymous, it will take much more than that. I think it is possible that another cryptocurrency eventually surpasses Bitcoin, but Monero is not that cryptocurrency. Simply making transactions more anonymous is not a big enough innovation to overcome the infrastructure and network effect of a crypto currency like Bitcoin. It will require better anonymity couple with many other features and/or improvements to do this."
- CoinHoarder


I may be incorrect, but I remember seeing a post by someone stating that even one of the core bitcoin team members ackowledged that Bitcoin's Lack of anonymity is a big obstacle.

As it stands, it's relatively less anonymous than Paypal for the average user once their identity is connected to an address(s), especially since many people(including myself) find it bothersome to make new bitcoin address to recieve/send payments, Just to be more anonymous, also Bitcoin's 3rd party coinjoin/mixing services are Out of the question. I've seen  posts by people claiming to get scammed out of their bitcoin by using them.

Privacy/Anonymity is a big deal, especially for monetary systems. The world is becoming less private, and concerning private companies, institutions, even governments, they would need a certain degree of privacy if we ever want them to accept using cryptocurrencies. A while back I read a post concerning someone asking the managers of a company he worked at to accept Bitcoin, and the told him no because the blockchain is public and there transactions can be traced, which is bad when you want to stay ahead of the curve against your competitors.

What's great about Cryptonote coins(Monero), is that you can have private transactions And public transactions. It's a 2 in 1, which is especially good for private companies, merchants, and even regular people.

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September 01, 2014, 07:56:24 PM
 #329

It's not odd its a massive PR campaign of paid accounts. In fact I was asked by PM several times if Id like to post pro-Monero stance all day long for good cash.
~CfA~

I can do it. Please tell me who PMed you i wil give you 20% of my profit if you help me.
please please please.

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September 01, 2014, 08:12:12 PM
 #330

I just don't get it.

Just read the thread name...

Am I not speculating about Monero here as well? I just have a different opinion than most of you guys I guess. Please explain it to me why I you guys are right and I am wrong. It's just odd that everyone seems so bullish on Monero and there is not one person here voicing bearish concerns...

No, you are here wondering why everyone is talking about Monero in a Monero thread, we don't care about Zero/whatever and its not because we are talking it down but because we just don't care about it or we would be on the Zero/whatever Speculation thread.

Discussing alternative technologies other cryptocurrencies are implementing is necessary to speculate properly and form an educated opinion. You can't just omit the from your thought process like they don't exist.

Furthermore, it seems a lot of people don't realize that Zerocoin can be implemented without the requirement of trusting third parties and/or don't realize people are working on implementing it. Zerocash =/= Zerocoin...

Only investing in one anon Cryptocurrency is like putting your eggs in one basket. I think Darkcoin is making strides towards better anonymity by improving their anon tech, and Anoncoin seems to be making strides in (and dedicated to) implementing Zerocoin. I guess that's the main point I'm trying to convey.
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September 01, 2014, 08:18:20 PM
 #331

I just don't get it.

Just read the thread name...

Am I not speculating about Monero here as well? I just have a different opinion than most of you guys I guess. Please explain it to me why I you guys are right and I am wrong. It's just odd that everyone seems so bullish on Monero and there is not one person here voicing bearish concerns...

Quick note from the moderator. Bearish comments are most certainly on topic and even encouraged. You won't see that many of them since most people who decide not to speculate on XMR don't stick around and talk about it. Most people here are either holding XMR or planning to buy (shorting is cumbersome). So any thoughtful representation the bearish view is a welcome counterpoint.
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September 01, 2014, 08:23:14 PM
 #332

It´s pretty obvious that you don´t get it. Some people prefer to use something that actually exists.

Ringsignatures provide good privacy without moonmath, read gmaxwells posts maybe (nullc): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7765455
Or Andytoshis post on stackexchange: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/29471/is-there-any-true-anonymous-cryptocurrencies


Care to proof that mainly botnets mine Monero? Most hash seems to be from Claymores GPU miner.

I don't know othe's source, but he's pretty plugged into the mining scene (I'm not) so he may well be right.

However, it is quite obvious from analyzing readily available public information that a very, very large portion of the hash rate is GPU mining. If you don't see that you can't claim to be doing credible research. To his credit CoinHoarder has retracted his botnet claim, for which he admittedly had zero evidence anyway.
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September 01, 2014, 08:27:44 PM
 #333

voicing bearish concerns...
shorting is cumbersome

Not necessarily. If you can bear to buy the PUT option from me, then there is very good leverage when the price goes down.

The delta can be about 300% and the maximum leverage more than 1000%.
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September 01, 2014, 08:36:30 PM
 #334

voicing bearish concerns...
shorting is cumbersome

Not necessarily. If you can bear to buy the PUT option from me, then there is very good leverage when the price goes down.

The delta can be about 300% and the maximum leverage more than 1000%.

It is a p2p transaction, not on an exchange, and one has to believe not only that XMR will go down, but that your option pricing is attractive. I'm not discouraging it, but I still find it somewhat cumbersome.

If you want to buy futures that would at least take some of the complication out of it, although still a more cumbersome p2p type deal.
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September 01, 2014, 08:39:06 PM
 #335

rpietila aka Monero Jesus have PUT and CALL options for Monero, like he posted just one reply above me.
I cannot understand why no one is using it except me.
This is a fantastic opportunity to make extra cash whether you believe monero is going up or down.
CALL = You think it's going to go up.
PUT = You think it's going down.


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September 01, 2014, 08:43:35 PM
 #336

voicing bearish concerns...
shorting is cumbersome

Not necessarily. If you can bear to buy the PUT option from me, then there is very good leverage when the price goes down.

The delta can be about 300% and the maximum leverage more than 1000%.

It is a p2p transaction, not on an exchange, and one has to believe not only that XMR will go down, but that your option pricing is attractive. I'm not discouraging it, but I still find it somewhat cumbersome.

If you want to buy futures that would at least take some of the complication out of it, although still a more cumbersome p2p type deal.

You always need to check whether option pricing is attractive when buying or selling options.
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September 01, 2014, 08:46:03 PM
 #337

I think Zerocoin is better at this point in time seeing as though it can be implemented without having to trust a third party.

One big problem with Zerocoin was the massive bloat, as I recall.  It makes ring signatures look like an anorexic supermodel in contrast.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 01, 2014, 08:46:45 PM
 #338

I just don't get it.

Just read the thread name...

Am I not speculating about Monero here as well? I just have a different opinion than most of you guys I guess. Please explain it to me why I you guys are right and I am wrong. It's just odd that everyone seems so bullish on Monero and there is not one person here voicing bearish concerns...

It's not odd its a massive PR campaign of paid accounts. In fact I was asked by PM several times if Id like to post pro-Monero stance all day long for good cash.  I was the wrong guy to ask that cuz im rich and wont support junk.

~CfA~

Not that unsubstantiated statements hold a lot of water coming from reputable participants, but seriously - how do you expect anyone to believe them coming from you? (I can't believe I even replied to this crap)

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September 01, 2014, 08:54:35 PM
 #339

voicing bearish concerns...
shorting is cumbersome

Not necessarily. If you can bear to buy the PUT option from me, then there is very good leverage when the price goes down.

The delta can be about 300% and the maximum leverage more than 1000%.

It is a p2p transaction, not on an exchange, and one has to believe not only that XMR will go down, but that your option pricing is attractive. I'm not discouraging it, but I still find it somewhat cumbersome.

If you want to buy futures that would at least take some of the complication out of it, although still a more cumbersome p2p type deal.

You always need to check whether option pricing is attractive when buying or selling options.

Yes and that is another consideration that doesn't apply when shorting (potentially unlimited need for margin applies to shorting though)
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September 01, 2014, 08:55:58 PM
 #340

It´s pretty obvious that you don´t get it. Some people prefer to use something that actually exists.

Ringsignatures provide good privacy without moonmath, read gmaxwells posts maybe (nullc): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7765455
Or Andytoshis post on stackexchange: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/29471/is-there-any-true-anonymous-cryptocurrencies


Care to proof that mainly botnets mine Monero? Most hash seems to be from Claymores GPU miner.

I don't know othe's source, but he's pretty plugged into the mining scene (I'm not) so he may well be right.

However, it is quite obvious from analyzing readily available public information that a very, very large portion of the hash rate is GPU mining. If you don't see that you can't claim to be doing credible research. To his credit CoinHoarder has retracted his botnet claim, for which he admittedly had zero evidence anyway.

My original analysis done on Monero was done months ago when it was first released, at that time it could only be mined by CPUs. I did not realize GPU miners had been made, and as you say I retracted my statements which would of been applicable to a cryptocurrency that can currently only be mined by CPUs.

Minus the bot net stuff, I think I have some valid criticisms. To my credit, a lot of people ITT don't seem to be doing "credible research" on competing anonymous crypto currencies and what they are up to. They seem to think Zerocoin was abondened and/or that it requires to trust a third party. I admit I have been keeping up with their project better than Moner because I decided a long time ago it is the superior anonymous technology. Yeah, it may be vaporware right now but I have faith it will come to market sooner or later. If that happens I think Monero could be in trouble.

I've just been seeing a lot of posts about Monero the past months and wanted to know what all the fuss is about. I came here seeking enlightenment, and I have already learned one thing, so I guess my mission was successful. I also learned that Monero is planning on doing other features or improvements.. Although no one has enlightened me as to what. I guess I will need to dig that up on my own. I am mainly here speaking as to anonymity.
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