[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

the supply is rising if the price is falling and vice versa? - it does not make sense

the supply should be rising when the price is rising and vice versa.

maybe this stuff is traders business but from an economics point of view this does not make sense at all

When the price is going up people tend to pull their ask in anticipation of a better price to sell at. When the price is dropping people tend to pull their bids in anticipation of a lower price to buy at. At the same time in a falling market a lot of people wants to sell and places sell walls hoping to get out at a better price, and vice-versa.

Also, if someone is in the process of accumulation, he often masks his intention with having the bought coins in asks, trying to cap the price. Similarly a seller would use bid walls to try to keep price higher while he is unloading. I have tried these techniques in a liquid market (Bitstamp BTC/USD) and in a short term (a few hours) and medium trade size (100-200 BTC), they lead to an average 0.45% better execution than not employing them. That is only possible for medium+ traders who have the required funds to put up walls, and only for medium- trade sizes, because large trades affect the market nevertheless and the strategy becomes evident to an observer, if there is simultaneous buy pressure and sell walls. It may be +EV still, though, as I see it being used in Bitstamp often now.

Then there is the "legitimate" use of walls in illiquid markets. Offering a trade at a favorable price near market (lower or even higher) for a large counterparty. Buying at market would lead to slippage.

The depth that is reasonably far from the market to not be fulfilled except in extreme cases is safe to discard from analysis. Every trader would buy XMR at 300 or sell it at 500, it does not matter how many stated intentions there are listed, if you want to know where the price is heading.

[klee]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

[h3speros]

6h ma20 seems to be important in xmrbtc and 50% fibo at 0.004, both broke down just now, if we get little more volume i predict that we see lower low (after 0.0051 top), highs have been lower too, bear market is not over yet

We should not fight the market. If it wants to go down, there is no one single holder that can prevent it. The MEW group could try to prop up the price but what's the meaning? The group is there to build the economy around monero and not manipulate the price (I don't condemn Warz' heroic effort to defend 400 but fact is it failed - but he got lots of coin at a long term cheap price) I won't take part in concerted price manipulation.

The path of higher lows continues. It's up to the market how low we go. (If we don't go any lower after battling here for a time, and then go up, it is also a bullish sign.) A long-term negative sign would be to break 290 and I don't think that's in the cards..

i was just blathering because of this:

Can I hear the sad sound of an empty XMR wallet willing to buy <0.004?

I think it is conceivable that we see that figure again. But before that happens, I am quite much richer Smiley

=D

[TheKoziTwo]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

[rpietila]

i was just blathering because of this:

Can I hear the sad sound of an empty XMR wallet willing to buy <0.004?

I think it is conceivable that we see that figure again. But before that happens, I am quite much richer Smiley

=D

I acknowledge my stupid words. I bought in the pump over 0.004 and then sold some in the way down, making a loss. This is called bad trading, and it did not make me richer despite the boasting.

But it gave me the opportunity to distill my thoughts concerning price manipulation, which I can copy from the MEW-IW chatboard:

Now I have some word about price rigging. In the richlist it shows that 10 or more people have 1% or more of the coin. So it is quite well distributed (the foremost reason why I am interested in this coin and not anything else). Not only that - perhaps each of the large holders has at least the same value of BTC. And trading is anonymous. In this setting it is called a perfect market, and it is impossible to collude to rig the price. This is the great advantage of Monero, something that even Bitcoin does not have.

Joking about doing price manipulation is fun, but we also know that it is an empty threat really. But the trolls get food from such speaking, and therefore it would be better not to do it. The reality is that just about every other coin has the potential of price rigging, and many of them do it actively. Monero does not have this potential due to its unique distribution. Over time this fact sinks in to more and more people, causing them to also buy moneros, "the unmanipulatable coin".

[vuduchyld]

The path of higher lows continues.

Absolutely this.  I love the distribution, the innovation, and the chart.  And I'm not swing trading.  I'm accumulating.

edit: full disclosure--I have sold some of my stash and bought back on two occasions.  Won't be doing it in the future.  I was profitable one time and not profitable the other.  Overall profit, but it's just not worth the aggravation.  I'm not a great trader.

[upupup]

This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

[Jungian]

This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

So.. you are saying XMR might be 30 years behind BTC? In your world, bitcoin might start to exist in about 25 years then.

[infofront]

This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

Bitcoin has opened a lot of doors for cryptocurrency, and has done much of the heavy lifting to clear the way forward.

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is the destiny of Monero to become adopted by "masses" faster than bitcoin because bitcoin has introduced the crypto to the world citizens.

My estimation is that Monero will achieve minimum 500 000 000 USD marketcap. When Monero is fully mined, it means the price per monero has to be 27 USD.
Note, this is very conservative estimate and does not count bitcoin rises at all. If bitcoin stabilizes 10 higher, the Monero will achieve minimum 270 USD per coin value.

However it is possible to go even further since Monero serves excellent hedge against inflation and violent governements.
We all know, bitcoin cannot do it - just study case Ross Ulbricht of Silk Road.
Monero movements you cannot trace easily.
Imagine if only 1 % of tax haven money will flow into Monero, what happens to the price - especially considering the situation of hardness of accumulation of any larger amount?

Now if you want to accumulate a huge stack of Monero you need to pay more and more for each Monero since it is very illiquid asset. I am glad actually as a holder that the price basically has to go up due to the cry for liquidity.
Liquidity will follow the higher price. It is easier to buy a significiant stash of coins without much moving the price when Monero is priced around 1000 USD each than today when the price is 2 USD.

[Its About Sharing]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

Yeah, I'm not sure I understand the comment as well.
I was thinking about this before, how BTC early adopters have lots of BTC's and how they could use them without going to FIAT.
Well, a very obvious way is to find "the next Bitcoin", so to speak. It really looks like anonymous coins might be the way and since
the public is really just catching on to BTC (very early stages), the whales can EASILY lead the pack to the #2 coin, an anonymous one.
I'm sure they see the writing on the wall with things like how Lawsky is trying to close in on BTC. No way would I leave all my wealth
in just BTC (as far as Cryptos go.)

IAS

[smooth]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

My guess would be that he meant it is hot money. Easy come, easy go. There is some truth to that.

[rpietila]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

My guess would be that he meant it is hot money. Easy come, easy go. There is some truth to that.

In practice it's the opposite, however. The small fish (if any) jump in and out, it is not even possible for whales.

The liquidity has become really good during the last days. There was a huge pump with 700 BTC involved 2 days ago, and the price increased by 12%, now 2 days later we are hanging around 3-5% gains.

[Eastwind]

The liquidity is very good for monero. The trade volume is 8th of all the coins, $270k in the last 24 hours.

[coinits]

This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

And then there is this announcement that US Regulators will allows swaps of BTC. Seems most people like the idea but I know that everything that the Banksters touch turns to shit polished up to look precious.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=780054.0

My link at the bottom says exactly how I feel.

[Skinnkavaj]

Good morning. Today I provide my market analysis for fun.  

I still think my CALL for reaching 0.01 in September is very possible but it ultimately depends on if BTC rebounds before the end of the month. The key is to hunt for whales the next run up. Daytrading whales like Warz and rpietila, needs to get left behind the train so they have to buy back in expensive. We need another fresh non-monero whale possible taking price up 0.0005 or so, so our Monero daytrading whales have to surrender and buy in. If you are gonna buy in, buy in with force. We need to get rpietila and Warz afraid of missing out on cheap sub 0.006 coins. This is actually a little joke on the effect whales can have, I don't think it matters actually in the longterm we could also do a run up with many small fishes. It would only take like 400 BTC to break resistance at 0.006 and this is nothing in the altcoin market.

Here is a chart that is interesting, USD marketcap has not yet broken it's all time high, but is very close to and I predict that Monero will be affected by next BTC price swing. When BTC rebounds back up to 550+ USD, Moneros USD all time high marketcap will be broken and no one knows for sure at what price level we will stabilize after that. Monero is for me a longterm coin and not a pump n dump, so I would be very afraid to daytrade at this price level instead of just holding.


If you like my market analysis, feel free to tip at at BTC address:
1LmifzdRz2b6GNXKaSxWUP25f4a5kP1WXk

Everything donated to this address will be used to fund my upcoming Monero service. I am an entrepreneur by nature and I like to be really involved in my few investments, so this is why I have promised to create something for Monero. I encourage everyone to do the same, stand up for financial privacy and if you make money on this use it to develop things further.

[iourzzz]

This is of course very good for the coming monero economy.

Coming economy... When? if bitcoin will get speed in 5-10 years, then Monero - 20-40 years at least. Not sure if I'm ready to wait that long

And then there is this announcement that US Regulators will allows swaps of BTC. Seems most people like the idea but I know that everything that the Banksters touch turns to shit polished up to look precious.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=780054.0

My link at the bottom says exactly how I feel.

I guess it's only one variable in a complex equation. So actually there are different directions how it can play out in reality.

[rpietila]

I founded a new thread to present an alternative to the 24/7 exchange, especially for those who:

- are very security conscious
- have a lot of coins and need liquidity
- need currency exchange (such as merchants)
- do a localmonero-style business
- otherwise feel pro.

[dEBRUYNE]

Seems like the breakout of a few days ago was just a false one and we're back to the downtrend. Large dumping also today.

[klee]

BTC whales embracing Monero is a double edge sword, mark my words...

and why do you think so?

They will always return to their first love, especially in a rally - what do you think is happening now?

BTC are never enough - it is better to have an alt based on BTC haters.

EDIT: It's a psychology thing. They either wanted to gain more BTC (rpietila admitted this and I did so too) and/or hedge on possible BTC failure. Are you kidding me? This is expressing so little faith in Monero, if an alt has any chance to succeed it needs fanatics who aim at No1.

Alpha male attitude.