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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3199740 times)
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August 30, 2014, 07:44:25 AM
 #241

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Your argument basically comes down to centralized systems being more efficient and mining being inefficient. That might be true in an ideal world without the possibility of fraud or abuse. It isn't true in the real world.


Emit 10-20% of the coins over a period of 1-2 months. Then, emit the remaining 80-90% over a long time frame. Are coins more concentrated in the hands of early adopters? Yes. This is a good thing! Reward those who were there at the start! Who cares what people are wary of, the majority of people are morons who cannot properly distinguish between something that is a scam, and something that isn't. Catering to them is of no relevance. The things that actually deliver results will succeed regardless of what the vast herd of sheep think.

This model proved to be wrong many times before. With such distribution only little percentage of involved may win at the expense of all the others. The real morons are the selfish ones who try to scam uneducated people.
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August 30, 2014, 09:58:15 AM
 #242

Just got information Monero was mentioned in the Bitcoin bullbear report, it's the only altcoin except LTC ever mentioned.

Yup, it's in there since a couple of months already. He switch between LTC and XMR on the reports. Not wanna spoil the analysis but needless to say it's... quite bullish.
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August 30, 2014, 10:13:11 AM
Last edit: August 30, 2014, 10:23:48 AM by Febo
 #243

Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.

This is kinda nonsense, as you are pretty apparently comparing to DRK (at 50% of current supply, which isn't even true anymore), but their community (of which I am a part as well) is quite big and active. They have the longest thread in the entire altcoin section. The other part of it is, absolutely some people got XMR at super cheap prices. I was one of them.

You are spot on about fast emission keeping price relatively low for early adopters/accumulators.

I did not meant any particular coin. You said that emission curve of Monero is bad and would be better if would be more mined at early start. I told you there are 100 of such coins already. And i told you that is really bad for the coin.


Emission curve of Moreno is perfect. Today 4 months after start, daily gets mined almost same amount of coins as on first day. Is perfect as it is.


Super cheap Moneros would be bought at 0.00001BTC or mined at that cost. Or even cheaper. Coins with emission curve as you said you want to have for Moreno have such cases.

Not many Moneros were traded under 0.001 BTC. Compared to whole trade volume of past 4 months are not worth of mentioning.


And About DRK and its community.
I dont know really DRK emission curve, I dont know how strong community is. I dont know when was coin launched. But if emission curve is as you wanted for Monero, then at time when Monero will be as old as is DRK right now, Monero community will be way stronger and compact then DRK community is now.

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August 30, 2014, 10:41:53 AM
 #244

XMR is above DRK again.

XMR will be above everything. We are so close to 5 mBTC.
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August 30, 2014, 10:45:30 AM
 #245

XMR is above DRK again.

XMR will be above everything. We are so close to 5 mBTC.

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin
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August 30, 2014, 11:28:02 AM
 #246

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin

Not possible  Shocked

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August 30, 2014, 02:23:33 PM
 #247

Well this is a nice sight to wake up to..

 Grin Grin Grin

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August 30, 2014, 02:58:32 PM
 #248

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers.

There is a parable about this, but I couldn't remember where it comes from so I can't quote it properly.

But the thrust of it is that if something seems useless to you, you probably don't fully understand the purpose of it. Only when you can clearly understand and explain the argument in favor of something should you decide you are opposed to it, or vice versa. In fact most things that are worse for everyone doesn't even exist in the world. Ideas that dumb are quickly abandoned. So there must be someone for whom this is better. Try to figure out who that is and why.

Thinking that something is crazy or is worse for everyone when other obviously intelligent people disagree should be a clue that you don't understand it entirely. This doesn't mean you have to change your mind ultimately, but at least open it a crack.
This. I will remember this quote, thanks smooth Smiley And if someone remembers the parable, I'd be happy to read it.

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August 30, 2014, 03:24:44 PM
 #249

Is there a rich list for XMR?

I obtained about 40k back when this coin was still young, I'm curious if that makes me an XMR whale or a small fish.

Does anyone see this coin going back to 60+ price?

You may want to consider adding to bounties to increase your holding value. This coin has a ton more potential that seems to be held back only by lack of funding.

BTW I hold zero ATM but have been watching (wish I had found this coin earlier).

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August 30, 2014, 03:37:58 PM
 #250

Is there a rich list for XMR?

I obtained about 40k back when this coin was still young, I'm curious if that makes me an XMR whale or a small fish.

Does anyone see this coin going back to 60+ price?

You may want to consider adding to bounties to increase your holding value. This coin has a ton more potential that seems to be held back only by lack of funding.

BTW I hold zero ATM but have been watching (wish I had found this coin earlier).

price still less than 50% of ATH, not late to join Wink

I have bought and sold twice. I regretted selling both times. Smiley

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August 30, 2014, 03:51:10 PM
 #251

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin
Not possible  Shocked
18m XMR vs 21m BTC, its possible but highly improbable that soon.
Well this is just nonsense. Once the next spike happens everything (well most) will go to new heights.
Bitcoin will be really far away from the 2nd coin once it happens. It's one thing to be optimistic in regards to Monero, it's another thing to have unrealistic beliefs.
The price of Monero seems nice today though.

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August 30, 2014, 04:05:56 PM
 #252

price still less than 50% of ATH, not late to join Wink

Same applies for Bitcoin. It's not late to join both coins.
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August 30, 2014, 04:20:20 PM
 #253

Is there a rich list for XMR?

I obtained about 40k back when this coin was still young, I'm curious if that makes me an XMR whale or a small fish.

Does anyone see this coin going back to 60+ price?

You may want to consider adding to bounties to increase your holding value. This coin has a ton more potential that seems to be held back only by lack of funding.

BTW I hold zero ATM but have been watching (wish I had found this coin earlier).

I think anything over 10k could be considered a whale.

Also, I think a generous donation to the XMR devs is the best way of accelerating progress. They are taking time to make sure quality work is being done.

Please join the Monero Community Hall of Fame! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0

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August 30, 2014, 10:57:13 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2014, 05:11:58 AM by ArticMine
 #254

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin
Not possible  Shocked
18m XMR vs 21m BTC, its possible but highly improbable that soon.
Well this is just nonsense. Once the next spike happens everything (well most) will go to new heights.
Bitcoin will be really far away from the 2nd coin once it happens. It's one thing to be optimistic in regards to Monero, it's another thing to have unrealistic beliefs.
The price of Monero seems nice today though.

Under normal circumstances I would agree with you; however if Bitcoin chokes over the 1 MB blocksize limit during the next boom, it is quite possible. Most people consider Monero because of privacy, but one must not ignore adaptive limits as a feature in Monero.  Adaptive limits on its own can be a game changer, since Bitcoin will have to hard fork in order to remain number 1.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 30, 2014, 11:50:33 PM
 #255

Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.

This is kinda nonsense, as you are pretty apparently comparing to DRK (at 50% of current supply, which isn't even true anymore), but their community (of which I am a part as well) is quite big and active. They have the longest thread in the entire altcoin section. The other part of it is, absolutely some people got XMR at super cheap prices. I was one of them.

You are spot on about fast emission keeping price relatively low for early adopters/accumulators.

I did not meant any particular coin. You said that emission curve of Monero is bad and would be better if would be more mined at early start. I told you there are 100 of such coins already. And i told you that is really bad for the coin.


Emission curve of Moreno is perfect. Today 4 months after start, daily gets mined almost same amount of coins as on first day. Is perfect as it is.


Super cheap Moneros would be bought at 0.00001BTC or mined at that cost. Or even cheaper. Coins with emission curve as you said you want to have for Moreno have such cases.

Not many Moneros were traded under 0.001 BTC. Compared to whole trade volume of past 4 months are not worth of mentioning.


And About DRK and its community.
I dont know really DRK emission curve, I dont know how strong community is. I dont know when was coin launched. But if emission curve is as you wanted for Monero, then at time when Monero will be as old as is DRK right now, Monero community will be way stronger and compact then DRK community is now.

I don't think I said that at all. I said it rewards early adopters, but it then becomes opinion on what's good/bad. I didn't give one.
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August 30, 2014, 11:56:50 PM
 #256

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin

Not possible  Shocked

It's possible, but I am much more conservative in my speculation:

XMR > BTC in 2015 2017!!!  Grin


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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August 31, 2014, 12:23:53 AM
 #257

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin

Not possible  Shocked

It's possible, but I am much more conservative in my speculation:

XMR > BTC in 2015 2017!!!  Grin

If we make it XMR > [BTC today ~$500], then 2017 sounds nice. If we're talking about XMR/BTC rate, I doubt that'll be happening that soon. Smiley
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August 31, 2014, 12:31:06 AM
 #258

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin

Not possible  Shocked

It's possible, but I am much more conservative in my speculation:

XMR > BTC in 2015 2017!!!  Grin

If we make it XMR > [BTC today ~$500], then 2017 sounds nice. If we're talking about XMR/BTC rate, I doubt that'll be happening that soon. Smiley

I'll gladly take that bet, my good Sir.

IMO, Gresham's Law requires XMR to be held in exponentially increasing (proportional to network effect utility growth) preference to BTC, just as BTC is held in exponentially increasing preference to fiat trash cash.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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August 31, 2014, 10:03:21 AM
 #259

Most people consider Monero because of privacy, but one must not ignore adaptive limits as a feature in Monero.  Adaptive limits on its own can be a game changer, since Bitcoin will have to hard fork in order to remain number 1.
Completely true. I keep saying to people that the adaptative limit is the hidden gem. Ring signature is easier to market, but the real power for me is adaptative limit (much like "money" is easier to market than "blockchain", even though the true power lies in the latter, not the former).

IMO, Gresham's Law requires XMR to be held in exponentially increasing (proportional to network effect utility growth) preference to BTC, just as BTC is held in exponentially increasing preference to fiat trash cash.
I'm already 75% in XMR (compared to BTC) and 60% in crypto (compared to fiat), so it seems I am on the righ track, especially considering I do not plan to have much more fiat ("fiat pays the bill, BTC buys XMR, XMR paves the future")

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August 31, 2014, 10:26:57 AM
 #260

XMR is above DRK again.

XMR will be above everything. We are so close to 5 mBTC.

XMR > BTC in 2015 !!!  Grin

only because of the recent btc dump? keeps dreaming, who think that btc is dying make me rotfl so hard
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