[XMR] Monero Speculation

[pa]

Sometimes I wonder whether it would be too much "bad blood" to have a monero speculation thread with only allowing known members of the community to speculate in...

Define "known member".

"Real name known, and finger prints and blood group on register", or "has more than 5 posts and didn't just register yesterday"?


Sidenote: newbie jail was a primitive solution to a complex problem, but still better than the current state of having *no* solution to that problem.

I'm sure there is an obvious reason for this, but why doesn't Bitcointalk charge a small fee to post? POW was invented as anti-spam tech, no? Also I wish someone would invent a cryptocurrency-based karma system for forums and other social media.

[kenji]

do you believe xmr can become a 1billlion dollar coin?
maybe in 1-2 years?

it will not become 1 billion usd in 2 years.
i would bet my life on it. Something really strange should happen to whole world,  if i am wrong.

why not?
if bitcoin will become worth 100billion in 2-3 years?

[dEBRUYNE]

do you believe xmr can become a 1billlion dollar coin?
maybe in 1-2 years?

it will not become 1 billion usd in 2 years.
i would bet my life on it. Something really strange should happen to whole world,  if i am wrong.

I think he meant 1 billion marketcap. Maybe that's achievable if bitcoin goes nuts again. Don't forget that litecoin also had a market cap of around 2 billion at its peak.

[smooth]

Deleted some low-content newbie posts and also the (off-topic) discussion about such posts

[rpietila]

...thinking in taking a 5-figure XMR position soon (if he can afford 5 figures when his fiat arrives).

I think it is very gentlemanly of you to share this information.  Thank you.  I would volunteer to help provide liquidity if it is lacking when the time comes.  It's always worthwhile to have more adoption.  (Although I could prefer more dispersion!)

I forgot to mention that the 3rd person (of only 3 in total that I met today for business) made a semi-strong commitment to invest 100 BTC very soon. (The reason I forgot to mention is that he already owns XMR).

So no matter whom I meet, it ends up that he buys XMR. 

[vuduchyld]

I didn't see when it happened, but I just noticed that XMR has cracked the Top 10 on coinmarketcap.com

I suppose that even a stable price leads to increasing market cap, given the current emissions.

Eventually, if we stop feeding the trolls and they disappear, the FUD may dissipate a little bit, which may also help.  The friendly fire ones are definitely the most annoying.

[smooth]

I didn't see when it happened, but I just noticed that XMR has cracked the Top 10 on coinmarketcap.com

I suppose that even a stable price leads to increasing market cap, given the current emissions.

Exactly this. #10-#15 are close in value, but none of the others have significant emission. They are either PoS coins or PoW with a very small emission rate (DRK and PTS).

As long as we can retain current price and none of 11-15 go on a pump, we can stay comfortably in the top 10. That should result in significantly greater exposure.

Unfortunately it is a big jump to #9. We can't really go higher without a big pump, or coins falling out of the top 10.

[TrueCryptonaire]

For Monero to take leaps in marketcap it requires more buying than the daily emission. For short term it may not cause any significiant move in the price as long as the weak hands want to sell their coins at 5-100 % profit instead of waiting a bit more and selling 1000-10 0000% profits.

The daily buying should be done by the strong hands so that the coins are not returning into the markets any time soon and the audience get the point that Monero is not going down along with bitcoin.

What I have been noticing among my friends is that they are much more open to Monero than bitcoin when talking privately with them.
When it comes to bitcoin they say: oh I missed that train, it is a bubble. When I tell about Monero their reaction is more responsive. Also mentioning some persons in association with Monero helps the adoption. 

One thing that makes me believing in Monero is the community. I see professional people here, strong experience in entrepreneurship, tech-guys and also other smart people.
The right people is a receipt for the success in any business.

[OrientA]

When Monero can have some use for private transaction, so that its usefulness is proven, then it will fly. Before that, it is all speculation.

[rpietila]

When Monero can have some use for private transaction, so that its usefulness is proven, then it will fly. Before that, it is all speculation.

Sending money between your friends privately is surprisingly reassuring. It's like Bitcoin in the early days when you didn't know that big brother is retroactively watching your every move 

[freebud]

When Monero can have some use for private transaction, so that its usefulness is proven, then it will fly. Before that, it is all speculation.

I think the most compelling case at the moment, which will get many bitcoiners interested is a mixing service based on Monero, which will automate all the hassle of doing it through exchanges. I imagine an instant two way exchange service, which does not require login. Coupled with a small app, which sends bitcoins to the service, receive Monero, send to another Monero account, send Monero back to the service, and get back clean bitcoins.
Almost every day there is a question about safe mixing on r/bitcoin, and the only real way seem to be through Monero.

[OrientA]

I didn't see when it happened, but I just noticed that XMR has cracked the Top 10 on coinmarketcap.com

I suppose that even a stable price leads to increasing market cap, given the current emissions.

Exactly this. #10-#15 are close in value, but none of the others have significant emission. They are either PoS coins or PoW with a very small emission rate (DRK and PTS).

As long as we can retain current price and none of 11-15 go on a pump, we can stay comfortably in the top 10. That should result in significantly greater exposure.

Unfortunately it is a big jump to #9. We can't really go higher without a big pump, or coins falling out of the top 10.

It is #7 (6.3M MC) after you filter out non mineable. The #6 is namecoin with $10.6M MC. If it takes 3 months to get there, I am happy.

[h3speros]

price is stuck between trendline from 0.0051 - 0.004341 (log) and 6h ma20 and i suspect it's going to go up at least temporally, because it has stayed above 6h ma20 and action near 0.0038 seemed like bottoming process, would be nice cup and handle if we go to 0.0051 and then take little breather and then go strongly up

we are still there, waiting for big volume breakout

[Febo]

I didn't see when it happened, but I just noticed that XMR has cracked the Top 10 on coinmarketcap.com

I suppose that even a stable price leads to increasing market cap, given the current emissions.

Exactly this. #10-#15 are close in value, but none of the others have significant emission. They are either PoS coins or PoW with a very small emission rate (DRK and PTS).

As long as we can retain current price and none of 11-15 go on a pump, we can stay comfortably in the top 10. That should result in significantly greater exposure.

Unfortunately it is a big jump to #9. We can't really go higher without a big pump, or coins falling out of the top 10.

It is #7 (6.3M MC) after you filter out non mineable. The #6 is namecoin with $10.6M MC. If it takes 3 months to get there, I am happy.

Thing is, Monero have high emission inflation, so even keeping same  price, is making market cap higher every day. Close to 10 milions USd, till end of year.

[smooth]

Thing is, Monero have high emission inflation, so even keeping same  price, is making market cap higher every day. Close to 10 milions USd, till end of year.

Right this is what I meant about not being able to move up based on emission alone. 10 million USD with all prices constant and we're still #10 at the end of the year. NMC (current #9) has emission too but I'm not sure what it is.

The emission should keep us comfortable in #10 though, against assuming constant prices (or declining or even slightly increasing prices) for #11+

[oda.krell]

Not to be a spoilsport, but I don't think Monero is in a position yet where it can completely decouple from the larger Bitcoin price trend (no alt can, except for intermediate fluctuation, imo). Which means constant, or only slightly decreasing XMR prices in the next 6 months might be conditional on BTC performance during that period, which I'm pretty pessimistic about.

[Ultros]

Not to be a spoilsport, but I don't think Monero is in a position yet where it can completely decouple from the larger Bitcoin price trend (no alt can, except for intermediate fluctuation, imo). Which means constant, or only slightly decreasing XMR prices in the next 6 months might be conditional on BTC performance during that period, which I'm pretty pessimistic about.

I'm trying to find where you posted the analysis on which you base your current bearish sentiment, I usually enjoy looking at your interpretations.
I agree about the correlation between BTC and XMR but why so pessimistic about the next 6 months? That's quite a long time in BTC-world and even longer in alt-space.

[wachtwoord]

Not to be a spoilsport, but I don't think Monero is in a position yet where it can completely decouple from the larger Bitcoin price trend (no alt can, except for intermediate fluctuation, imo). Which means constant, or only slightly decreasing XMR prices in the next 6 months might be conditional on BTC performance during that period, which I'm pretty pessimistic about.

What is the source of your pessimism? Price performance in the last 9 months?

[varun555]

When Monero can have some use for private transaction, so that its usefulness is proven, then it will fly. Before that, it is all speculation.

I think the most compelling case at the moment, which will get many bitcoiners interested is a mixing service based on Monero, which will automate all the hassle of doing it through exchanges. I imagine an instant two way exchange service, which does not require login. Coupled with a small app, which sends bitcoins to the service, receive Monero, send to another Monero account, send Monero back to the service, and get back clean bitcoins.
Almost every day there is a question about safe mixing on r/bitcoin, and the only real way seem to be through Monero.

The developers of Anoncoin have hinted that they would try to build a trustless exchange once their current project is over.

[oda.krell]

Not to be a spoilsport, but I don't think Monero is in a position yet where it can completely decouple from the larger Bitcoin price trend (no alt can, except for intermediate fluctuation, imo). Which means constant, or only slightly decreasing XMR prices in the next 6 months might be conditional on BTC performance during that period, which I'm pretty pessimistic about.

I'm trying to find where you posted the analysis on which you base your current bearish sentiment, I usually enjoy looking at your interpretations.
I agree about the correlation between BTC and XMR but why so pessimistic about the next 6 months? That's quite a long time in BTC-world and even longer in alt-space.

(Disclaimer: the following is mainly BTC speculation, so potentially off-topic, but by my assumption that BTC trends influence XMR trends, it should be considered on-topic)

Yes, you're right. Didn't post anything "substantial" on that topic for a while. Pretty time consuming, and Ryn is doing a fantastic job on the technicals in his EW thread and is a lot more dedicated (and experienced, and most likely also profitable) than I ever was.  Aside from the effort, I prefer posting at least somewhat optimistic observations. Like I did in mid May, before the rally. And again in late June when I tried to put my "reversal indicator" to use to figure out if and when we'd rally again... what I'm getting at is that I don't feel like pouring oil on fire too much in an already somewhat bleak situation.

The short version is that I see a lot of similarities between the current market and the end of the 2011 bear market. Note: I'm talking technicals, not fundamentals. Worse, we fail to overcome even the earliest resistances. Selling pressure during additional capitulation events is in fact decreasing, as has been pointed out correctly, but very little buying pressure follows. Add to that what appears to be relentless low level selling pressure (either from miners directly, or from off-exchange accumulators keeping a lid on market price), and we don't appear to be getting out of this rut.

I'm not really expecting a new capitulation event going below the previous $340 bottom, but at the very least I am willing to entertain the idea that the way out of this bear market will be slower than most are comfortable with. Leading to the occasional smaller capitulation event along the road. That's where my 6 months figure came from: I consider that a realistic time frame long enough for the market to regain confidence after a period like this.

Note please what I am not saying: that this is the only possible, or even the most likely scenario in my books. My "pessimistic for 6 months" remark was in response to a statement about XMR price, and I pointed out that, in my opinion, XMR price is (still) linked to larger BTC trends, so I don't believe the former can be described or predicted in isolation from the latter. Which means that if I have doubts about BTC recovery, I must have doubts about the mid term XMR development as well.

Does that make some sense?