[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

...
4) Please stop trolling us.

Just put him on ignore and don't quote him and he will dry up and go away.

Slightly off topic (however XMR trading affected of course) but a really interesting and honest story about the triple (!) ShapeShift hack, written by Erik Voorhees himself:

https://news.bitcoin.com/looting-fox-sabotage-shapeshift/

Great read, I can't believe they didn't check all systems for backdoors after finding a mole. THAT was really amateur time.

BTW Got your PM. Thx.

Most of what has been dumped in the last 30 minutes or so are shorts:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

266k -> 256k.

I wish the morons lending would look at ETH lending market.

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.msg14599446#msg14599446

I didn't think this was addressable in any situation. It's easily seen on polo and in general in everyday life. Shortsightedness and personal greed is a disease that should have been bred out of the human race. And if it does not become a thing of the past we will join the dinosaurs.

[explorer]

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.msg14599446#msg14599446

I didn't think this was addressable in any situation. It's easily seen on polo and in general in everyday life. Shortsightedness and personal greed is a disease that should have been bred out of the human race. And if it does not become a thing of the past we will join the dinosaurs.

There hasn't been much pruning on the human tree for a few hundred years.  Like any exponential growth, however, global population is setting up for a hell of a crash.  Just look at the charts    Presumably those with foresight will overall fare better than those without, which might take us one step closer to your goal.  I could also argue that greed is (or is a result of) foresight, to some degree...

[Dotto]

Slightly off topic (however XMR trading affected of course) but a really interesting and honest story about the triple (!) ShapeShift hack, written by Erik Voorhees himself:

https://news.bitcoin.com/looting-fox-sabotage-shapeshift/

Nice read!

[Dotto]

KABOOM.

[vuduchyld]

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

This market is so small it is really tempting to play myself but I know how that will end. On poloniex the leverage offered is 2.5:1? So just owning 20000 coins lets you double the bid side of the order book down to 0.0020 and also market buy another 25k coins into the ask side to keep up the pressure. The converse is true if you want the price to fall instead.

If I can conceivably move this market with my paltry holdings then imagine how easily manipulated it could be for someone with several hundred btc in XMR or simply sat on exchange.

One big green candle into 0.003 area and suddenly the chart looks like still in uptrend. One big red candle down and suddenly the world is ending.

Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

[Nxtblg]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

[rdnkjdi]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

I've had one bitcoin lent for 30 days and it's pulled an extra .1 btc.  Hit the lending market right and you can get lucky.  Wish I'd realized that six months ago and I would've minted a pretty nice sum.  But yeah - lending market now not so much.  Makes me think all crypto is about to take a leg up.

[explorer]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

[smooth]

uh... u were missing the point, the point is that no one care to use Monero if there is no improvement aside from anonimity. so what if Monero has the ultimate best anonimity anonimity benefit scammer more than it benefit regular joe.

Uhhhh...actually, it benefits the black marketeer more than it benefits the average Joe. And this is where we enter a somewhat thorny zone, relating to the fate of the United States and other advanced economies.

Do you think that Donald Trump is a monster? Do you think his plan to build a wall for which "Mexico will pay for it" via confiscating remittances is monstrous? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for illegal immigrants to join a black market - a black market for remittances.

Do you think that the cashless society would be an Edward-Snowden nightmare? If so, then you're implicitly rooting for ordinary Joes to (partially) join a black market - a black market for regular goods and services that the future authorities have red-flagged. Those "regular goods and services" might be as innocuous as certain frowned-upon books. Look at the mileage that Bill Nye the Censor Guy has gotten for his proposal to jail "deniers."

It's speculative political questions like these which keep me interested in Monero. I could be wrong, and I admit that I'm a sucker for certain varieties of declinism. But all is not well in Pleasantville, and Monero - even if its use cases are solely confined to "real" black markets - can be seen as a kind of escape hatch for ordinary Joes if they need to hide what they do with their money.

The "black market" arguments assume that the only source of oppression is from governments. The current reality is that a very significant amount of censorship and oppression is from entrenched corporate power. Some examples:
1) WikiLeaks suffered an economic blockade that was orchestrated illegally by Visa, MasterCard, Paypal and a host of major banks. There nothing "black market" about using Monero do an end run around an illegal corporate economic blockade.
2) Apple used DRM to censor the teachings of the Dali Lama, and has used DRM to censor all sorts of free speech. It used DRM to censor Bitcoin from 2009 - 2014 and is currently using DRM to censor Monero.
3) Amazon used DRM to censor George Orwell's 1984.
4) The MPAA and host of corporate interests tried to push the SOPA Internet censorship bill through the US Congress. When that failed they turned to waging a clandestine war against free speech and civil liberties on the Internet by attacking Google using Attorney Generals at the state level. The ultimate irony is that this attack on freedom and civil liberties was exposed as a result of the Sony server hacks. These hacks have been attributed to the Government of North Korea. The fact that even one of the most oppressive governments on the planet can strike such a worldwide blow for freedom and civil liberties illustrates the true evil in the MPAA.
I can continue but there are many "white market" products and services that are currently censored by entrenched corporate power to provided a major market for Moenro .

as usual u all assume that monero will perform as advertised. even if it does, dozen of other more capable and popular coin are implementing anonymity too.
so, i still think that monero could be irrelevant in few years if there is no improvement.

See rebuttal above. Monero is privacy-centric yes, but its merits are a package that is not even close to be replicated by any other project.

[Nxtblg]

I've had one bitcoin lent for 30 days and it's pulled an extra .1 btc.  Hit the lending market right and you can get lucky.  Wish I'd realized that six months ago and I would've minted a pretty nice sum.

Exactly! My first teeny loan of BTC went at 0.055%. As I write this, the low offer's 0.0483%. The rates are actually higher than the ones for Ethereum right now.

When you think about it, the Loan Market is a HODLer's dream! Not only do you get paid for HODLing, but also (if you're reasonably good at timing the market) it encourages you to buy-and-HODL more when the sentiment's gloomy. The worse the sentiment, the higher the loan rate (to short sellers). Add the theory of contrary opinion - "buy when the blood is running on the streets" - and you've got a sweet setup.

[Nxtblg]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

[smooth]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

[Nxtblg]

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

[smooth]

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

Almost exactly, but not callable by the lender. Repayable early by the borrower.

[explorer]

....Place your bets!

This is absolutely true.  I've thought the exact same thing about my own paltry holdings.  It's just such a thin market.

Actually, I'm getting seriously interested in (finally) buying some XMR to loan out on Polo's Loan Market.

Excited about 2% per year?

That's as high as it goes? I've been getting lots of loans at >0.03% daily with Factom, Ethereum and the big BTC. Are Monero's rates that much lower than those?

Its been pretty dismal for the last few weeks.  Had some 1%ers prior to that, but the loan pool has more than tripled since then, and they're cutting each others throats for fractions of a penny.  Sad.   BTC has fared much better on polo, rarely going under 0.03%, and currently holding well into the .04 range (which is still a poor risk/reward, IMO).  Available pool is about 1/2 of what it was a few weeks ago.

[rdnkjdi]

ehhhh the good news on that is that its evidence our coins will be worth more no?

[Nxtblg]

It goes up to 2% per day on occasion. Even higher on very, very rare occasion.

So it is like an old-fashioned call-money market. Thanks.

Almost exactly, but not callable by the lender. Repayable early by the borrower.

Yes, you're right; it's fixed-term on the lender's side and repayable at will by the buyer. So it's not exactly like a call loan, even though the suggested two-day term is short. Thanks for clarifying.

[Dotto]

I love when the plan comes together

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

[Hueristic]

...
There hasn't been much pruning on the human tree for a few hundred years.  Like any exponential growth, however, global population is setting up for a hell of a crash.  Just look at the charts    Presumably those with foresight will overall fare better than those without, which might take us one step closer to your goal.  I could also argue that greed is (or is a result of) foresight, to some degree...

Unfortunately I see the opposite, those with short term goals tend to act with disregard of those outside their immediate circle's and of those in power I see a vast majority being on the whole average at best. Hell if a Moron like JWB can be president of the most powerful nation in the world what does that say? Not to mention every moron I know has hoards of offspring they cannot afford and every intelligent family I know has few children. If my albeit small scale observations are a representation of the whole this race is in for a real spiral down. Hell we cannot even get our own planet under control because of lack of foresight and those that rail against it for short term gains. There is even a widely accepted rallying call that no-one seems to understand is a long term death sentence. "Family First", by extrapolation that is translated as Everyone else last.

On topic: Short ETH buy XMR!

[vuduchyld]

I love when the plan comes together

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Impressive and surprising, I'd say.