aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 08, 2016, 04:57:08 AM |
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Price speculation:
Higher highs and higher lows in XMR\BTC have persisted since the last days of May. The trend channel aggression has been moderating on a scale of weeks, which suggests that it is asymptotic to sustainable price levels. Every channel baseline since May is bullish, but recent action suggests a choice upcoming: Continue the mid-June support line upward, or go nearly sideways on the July support baseline.
I am inclined to expect sideways action through August, until declining supply or a demand catalyst (e.g. GUI) force it up. I find it difficult to imagine anything more than a brief excursion below 280k going forward because of the $2 attractor, assuming stable XBTUSD. My new marks for cheap/dear in the coming week are 298k/348k, but I always keep in mind that the risk is asymmetric, and mostly upward, especially on longer horizons, and moderate exposure accordingly.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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dEBRUYNE
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August 08, 2016, 11:38:13 AM |
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Febo
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August 08, 2016, 04:35:19 PM |
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Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels. Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread! XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again. I like it.
Yep, the price looks nice lately. Was there any new development or news? What made the price rise? Buyers Large market buys like those generally have me thinking short closing... Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.
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s1gs3gv
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ex uno plures
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August 08, 2016, 08:43:24 PM |
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Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.
This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat. Strange times in alt land.
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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August 08, 2016, 10:03:35 PM |
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Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.
This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat. Strange times in alt land. 1. I'm pleased that Monero is not pumping to the moon just because... and 2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders. Hopefully the market is steady and not going into pump and dump mode.
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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s1gs3gv
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ex uno plures
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August 08, 2016, 11:53:36 PM |
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2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.
It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels.
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smoothie
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August 09, 2016, 12:40:26 AM |
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2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.
It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels. Can't argue with that. My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply. Dash is a perfect example of this.
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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s1gs3gv
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ex uno plures
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August 09, 2016, 01:31:44 AM |
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Dash is a perfect example of this.
the mcafee effect ~LOL~
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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August 09, 2016, 06:44:32 AM |
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My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply. Dash is a perfect example of this.
the McAfee effect ~LOL~ You mean preventing it from spreading like a virus? Can't oppose. But to be serious, highly agree with smoothie. Limiting supply may be increasing the price of the few coins actually being traded, but it is artificial and bad for liquidity. The market would be very thin for buying or selling any serious amount.
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- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero.
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smoothie
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August 09, 2016, 06:45:42 AM |
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As of my comment right now, 1 XMR is 1/10th the price of 1 oz of silver.
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███████████████████████████████████████
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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nioc
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August 09, 2016, 03:25:43 PM |
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There has been discussion from time to time in regards to getting XMR on other exchanges for a) diversity and b) exposure on bigger markets. The status quo has resulted in us fulfilling b). http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
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Eidheen
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August 09, 2016, 03:27:11 PM |
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Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels. Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread! XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again. I like it.
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explorer
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August 09, 2016, 03:37:37 PM |
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Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels. Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread! XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again. I like it.
Nice quote. You should credit me for the writing of it, at least.
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 09, 2016, 09:02:50 PM |
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Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out. You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.
Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered. Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now. Cold wallets are sacrosanct.
I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Tommyhurley
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August 09, 2016, 09:19:55 PM |
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Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out. You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.
Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered. Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now. Cold wallets are sacrosanct.
I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.
Exactly for this reason I bought 2500 XMR extra earlier today. I'm done now - apparently miners are not selling anthing below [x?] USD
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Bassica
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August 09, 2016, 10:17:12 PM |
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I never really feel I have enough. Every paycheck adds some xmr to the stash
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ArticMine
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Monero Core Team
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August 09, 2016, 11:43:44 PM |
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Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out. You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.
Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered. Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now. Cold wallets are sacrosanct.
I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.
Market making with a crypto currency like Monero can be very trough. As you correctly point out the market is going to have to find the appropriate levels after the GUI, and also after RingCT/multisig. Edit: There is also the question of 0.0042-0.0043 XBT levels form a technical perspective. Monero has been in a trading range from 0.0009-0.0043 XBT since August 2014. A breakout from this trading range could be very sharp.
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