[XMR] Monero Speculation

[hodlmybtc]

FOMO market buys

[Hueristic]

big drop is incoming!!!!!

WOW what a monster Drop! Oh I mean spike.

Hahaha you amuse.

[pinky]

big drop is incoming!!!!!

WOW what a monster Drop! Oh I mean spike.

Hahaha you amuse.

 

We had less than 100% gain in 3 weeks and people are already expecting big drops - 100% is nothing in crypto world. But I guess it's good for longterm price if so many people are still bears. Big drop will come when we will see 100% move in one day, which usually indicates the end of the bubble. Monero is nowhere near the bubble, but someone is accumulating big time, which may or may not lead to XMR liquidity squeeze.

[dewdeded]

kinda similar page on moneroeconomy.com

https://moneroeconomy.com/openbazaar

And "working coin as transaction currency". - it works. I've transacted.

It's full of spelling errors. Who runs this page?
I want to contribute by correcting some of them.

[pa]

kinda similar page on moneroeconomy.com

https://moneroeconomy.com/openbazaar

And "working coin as transaction currency". - it works. I've transacted.

It's full of spelling errors. Who runs this page?
I want to contribute by correcting some of them.

I'd guess it was written by Atrides since he's the one working on the monero-compatible OpenBazaar fork and English is not his primary language.

[ArticMine]

The greed was obvious among the bears back in December when people were selling at 0.0011 hoping to buy back at 0.0008. The XMR bear market in the end was driven by greed not fear. In this market there are still a lot of bulls masquerading as bears and hoping to buy lower, and my take is that they will end up paying a lot more for their XMR.

Let us not forget that those of us who were busy buying during the end of the bear market can now simply sit back, stay out of the market and do nothing.  

[thelibertycap]

could XMR.TO be upgraded to act as a bitcoin mixer? receiving BTC converting through XMR back to BTC? Or how could that work? it would be a pretty nice service that is directly marketable to the bitcoin crowd and let them find out about ring signatures before some BTC sidechain tries to steals its glory

[rpietila]

The greed was obvious among the bears back in December when people were selling at 0.0011 hoping to buy back at 0.0008. The XMR bear market in the end was driven by greed not fear. In this market there are still a lot of bulls masquerading as bears and hoping to buy lower, and my take is that they will end up paying a lot more for their XMR.

Let us not forget that those of us who were busy buying during the end of the bear market can now simply sit back, stay out of the market and do nothing.  

Yeah, let's see what happens.

I have likely better information on the strength of the current uptrend than the others, since I know what percentage of the new emission (or trade volume) was my client buys. Nobody else should have access to that information.

The market goes up in waves. I judged that other bidders were weak enough not to cross the Rubicon (194k) a few days ago, so the rally felt overextended. If you can do it without me, and it stays above for several days, perhaps I join in. For now, it's time to wait. Technically, it could break the ATL after failing here. <- I don't believe in those tea leaves and will not let it go that low, but Fibonacci is predicting 134-146 as the possible low. In that area we have quite nice support from the last months' trading action.

[binaryFate]

could XMR.TO be upgraded to act as a bitcoin mixer? receiving BTC converting through XMR back to BTC? Or how could that work? it would be a pretty nice service that is directly marketable to the bitcoin crowd and let them find out about ring signatures before some BTC sidechain tries to steals its glory

Not really for the moment...
The only way to avoid taint between the incoming and the outgoing bitcoins would be to have two completely, perfectly, absolutely separated wallets: one for the incoming bitcoins and one for the outgoing ones. The tricky part would be to transfer from the incoming wallet to the outgoing wallet without taint between them, and to do that converting to XMR isn't of any significant help unless you trade with two completely separated entities that cannot talk to each other to do (i) first BTC > XMR, then (ii) XMR > BTC. Currently it is not possible as we would need to rely on a very small numbers of entities (poloniex + few individuals), so at least them would know the taint trivially. If at least few entities can get the taint trivially, you have accomplished nothing and aren't doing much better than current bitcoin mixers.

Open to any suggestion of course, because I agree this would be very powerful.

[onemorexmr]

could XMR.TO be upgraded to act as a bitcoin mixer? receiving BTC converting through XMR back to BTC? Or how could that work? it would be a pretty nice service that is directly marketable to the bitcoin crowd and let them find out about ring signatures before some BTC sidechain tries to steals its glory

Not really for the moment...
The only way to avoid taint between the incoming and the outgoing bitcoins would be to have two completely, perfectly, absolutely separated wallets: one for the incoming bitcoins and one for the outgoing ones. The tricky part would be to transfer from the incoming wallet to the outgoing wallet without taint between them, and to do that converting to XMR isn't of any significant help unless you trade with two completely separated entities that cannot talk to each other to do (i) first BTC > XMR, then (ii) XMR > BTC. Currently it is not possible as we would need to rely on a very small numbers of entities (poloniex + few individuals), so at least them would know the taint trivially. If at least few entities can get the taint trivially, you have accomplished nothing and aren't doing much better than current bitcoin mixers.

Open to any suggestion of course, because I agree this would be very powerful.

i thought about:
Person 1 wants to send BTC anonymously
Person 2 has too much XMR

Person 1 sends BTC to Person 2.
Person 2 send XMR to Polo
Polo exchanges XMR to BTC
Polo Withdraws BTC to Person 1

Polo now knows that this person owns BTC. But not where the wealth originated from (e.g. paycheck, robbery)

Person 2 knows everything and can be bribed (e.g. if its the stolen BitStamp coins he can tell the Withdraw Address Person 1 used). He is also the person who gets contacted by authorities if he tries to send it to coinbase or anything like that.

[ArticMine]

The greed was obvious among the bears back in December when people were selling at 0.0011 hoping to buy back at 0.0008. The XMR bear market in the end was driven by greed not fear. In this market there are still a lot of bulls masquerading as bears and hoping to buy lower, and my take is that they will end up paying a lot more for their XMR.

Let us not forget that those of us who were busy buying during the end of the bear market can now simply sit back, stay out of the market and do nothing.  

Yeah, let's see what happens.

I have likely better information on the strength of the current uptrend than the others, since I know what percentage of the new emission (or trade volume) was my client buys. Nobody else should have access to that information.

The market goes up in waves. I judged that other bidders were weak enough not to cross the Rubicon (194k) a few days ago, so the rally felt overextended. If you can do it without me, and it stays above for several days, perhaps I join in. For now, it's time to wait. Technically, it could break the ATL after failing here. <- I don't believe in those tea leaves and will not let it go that low, but Fibonacci is predicting 134-146 as the possible low. In that area we have quite nice support from the last months' trading action.

It is quite possible that we test a 50%  Fibonacci at 0.001417 or even test and / or break the ATL; however there are a lot of uncertainties and many of them are on the upside and quite unrelated to any particular group of buyers. Here is an interesting out of the blue possibility: Anyone can apply to FinCEN in the US on the MSB status of Darkcoin masternodes. If FinCEN were to rule that DRK masternodes are MSBs, what are the chances of purchasing XMR under 0.002? Seriously anyone following the XMR market should pay very close attention to DRK/XBT on both a technical and fundamental level. If DRK makes a break to the downside and one is caught "short" XMR watch out!

I have said it before and will say it again. Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.

[TrueCryptonaire]

There need to be incentives to buy and HODL the coin.

The incentive is pretty clear to me, currently there is no coin like Monero, with Bitcoin it will change financial history forever, furthermore its a work in progress so even if you consider only what is still to be delivered (DB, GUI, openbaazar, etc) there is cleary lot to gain from holding. Long term or nothing.

Yes for us who are Monero-bulls.

However, there are people who do not share our view yet and they need to join into the Crypto revolution.

[jehst]

Let's see if the baby can walk on its own.

[generalizethis]

could XMR.TO be upgraded to act as a bitcoin mixer? receiving BTC converting through XMR back to BTC? Or how could that work? it would be a pretty nice service that is directly marketable to the bitcoin crowd and let them find out about ring signatures before some BTC sidechain tries to steals its glory

Not really for the moment...
The only way to avoid taint between the incoming and the outgoing bitcoins would be to have two completely, perfectly, absolutely separated wallets: one for the incoming bitcoins and one for the outgoing ones. The tricky part would be to transfer from the incoming wallet to the outgoing wallet without taint between them, and to do that converting to XMR isn't of any significant help unless you trade with two completely separated entities that cannot talk to each other to do (i) first BTC > XMR, then (ii) XMR > BTC. Currently it is not possible as we would need to rely on a very small numbers of entities (poloniex + few individuals), so at least them would know the taint trivially. If at least few entities can get the taint trivially, you have accomplished nothing and aren't doing much better than current bitcoin mixers.

Open to any suggestion of course, because I agree this would be very powerful.

What if you sold the incoming (possibly tainted) coins to people using a tipbot? If you're tipping, you're just buying the coins to give away, so taint isn't an issue for you. And if you're getting the coins through tips, you're probably getting them in scant amounts, and if pressed by an exchange, have a legitimate explanation as to why they are tainted, "they were a reddit tip...." Just thinking aloud, so don't pound on me too hard if it isn't feasible.  

[smooth]

could XMR.TO be upgraded to act as a bitcoin mixer? receiving BTC converting through XMR back to BTC? Or how could that work? it would be a pretty nice service that is directly marketable to the bitcoin crowd and let them find out about ring signatures before some BTC sidechain tries to steals its glory

Not really for the moment...
The only way to avoid taint between the incoming and the outgoing bitcoins would be to have two completely, perfectly, absolutely separated wallets: one for the incoming bitcoins and one for the outgoing ones. The tricky part would be to transfer from the incoming wallet to the outgoing wallet without taint between them, and to do that converting to XMR isn't of any significant help unless you trade with two completely separated entities that cannot talk to each other to do (i) first BTC > XMR, then (ii) XMR > BTC. Currently it is not possible as we would need to rely on a very small numbers of entities (poloniex + few individuals), so at least them would know the taint trivially. If at least few entities can get the taint trivially, you have accomplished nothing and aren't doing much better than current bitcoin mixers.

Open to any suggestion of course, because I agree this would be very powerful.

I don't think you need to solve it. Yes your Bitcoins would be trainted with each other, but two independent services, both offering bidirectional conversions, would have Bitcoins that aren't trained. So it would be BTC -> xmr.to -> XMR -> some other service -> BTC.

Furthermore using this model, neither service can connect the original BTC with the resulting BTC; only the user can.

Another vulnerability to the user is that the "independent" services are actually colluding or actually being operated by the same person under different pseudo-identities. I don't think that's solvable. Just use Monero instead

EDIT: or both compromised directly or indirectly by the same actor

[illodin]

Anyone can apply to FinCEN in the US on the MSB status of Darkcoin masternodes.

USA != world

Remember to ask MSB status of xmr.to as well while you're at it. It actually is transacting coins unlike masternodes.

I think it's guaranteed that some countries (USA very likely being one of them) will make all anonymous coins illegal eventually. At that point, it's imperative that the coin can run hidden under tor/i2p or some other solution.

[ArticMine]

Anyone can apply to FinCEN in the US on the MSB status of Darkcoin masternodes.

USA != world

Remember to ask MSB status of xmr.to as well while you're at it. It actually is transacting coins unlike masternodes.

I think it's guaranteed that some countries (USA very likely being one of them) will make all anonymous coins illegal eventually. At that point, it's imperative that the coin can run hidden under tor/i2p or some other solution.

XMR.to is likely an MSB just like BitPay is. So is Poloniex. That does not make a coin illegal. My point is that a FinCEN ruling that DRK masternodes are MSBs will likely have a very significant impact on the XMR/XBT exchange rate, since XMR would not have that regulatory risk.

Edit: Why would one pick a technology that is subject to regulation over one that is not?

[Hueristic]

...Just use Monero instead

Think of it as a interim application for transitioning these users as seamlessly as possible while proving the core (XMR). Win win all around including the fee's to fund the project.

[Hueristic]

Anyone can apply to FinCEN in the US on the MSB status of Darkcoin masternodes.

USA != world

Remember to ask MSB status of xmr.to as well while you're at it. It actually is transacting coins unlike masternodes.

I think it's guaranteed that some countries (USA very likely being one of them) will make all anonymous coins illegal eventually. At that point, it's imperative that the coin can run hidden under tor/i2p or some other solution.

You guys can correct me if I'm wrong but adding tor or ip2 will no necessitate a hard fork at all and can also be backward compatible.

[illodin]

Edit: Why would one pick a technology that is subject to regulation over one that is not?

Because masternodes don't transact money, and because:

I think it's guaranteed that some countries (USA very likely being one of them) will make all anonymous coins illegal eventually. At that point, it's imperative that the coin can run hidden under tor/i2p or some other solution.