[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

Crosspost:

Alice Homemade: first restaurant in the world to accept XMR?

On Friday I had the pleasure to make a real-life XMR transaction with what is probably the first restaurant to accept Monero in the world: "Alice Homemade".  
I ordered two salads to be delivered at my home, and paid the delivery man (who also happened to be the restaurant owner) 12 XMR. There is also a 20% discount if you pay with Monero, and on top of the discount I also got two delicious tiramisus, because... that was history in the making!  

(Note I ordered food many times before while paying in XMR. Where I live there is a big website that accept Bitcoin and does the interface between end-customers and hundreds of restaurants, so usually I just pay that website in XMR through https://xmr.to - the restaurants in this case don't even know the command is paid in BTC, even less in XMR).  

But this time this was different, this restaurant Alice Homemade is now accepting Monero directly! (They were also one of the first in the country to accept bitcoins). Here is the Monero transaction for my two salads: 68be427ec0e6c09961522e444e862b643a86ed0f36aaca170c2116686b5d2f44  

They don't have a website, here is the location and some pictures on google.
  
If you pass by (it's close to Brussels international airport), show them some love  

This really needs to be publicized a lot more - it's not a minor story. It's a huge waypoint in Monero's ascension.

Make a big deal out of it; shout it everywhere. When other businesses realise they can get free publicity by adopting Monero they too will join the party.

This is a big deal, history in the making, and something that Monero should be proud of.

Don't drop the publicity baton! Go and shout the news at someone! Do it now! Quick.... Runnnn!!

[wpalczynski]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

Economically, the benefit of lending is the following 4 components:

* Opportunity cost
* Interest income
* Default risk
* External factors.

1. Opportunity cost is that when you lend moneros, you cannot do anything else with them. This is very low for most people, because they would anyway not do anything.

2. What the investment promises to pay.

3. How likely it is that you don't get the money back, or don't get it in full, or have insecurity or delay in getting it back.

4. Helping someone with the loan is a positive externality, as is getting XMR markets bigger. Getting someone into debt or "giving ammo to shorters" are negative. These factors compound in value for big players (such as loaning out 1,000,000 XMR cheaply and then buying them on the market, trapping the shorters - this may wreck the market (exchange defaulting) or kindle much new interest in XMR. (Example of a short squeeze IRL.)


In altcoin markets, I think it is preferable to think of returns as weekly. Annual returns require difficult compunding in every stage, while weekly percentages are so low they can just be summed, without loss of much accuracy.

1. I'd say opportunity cost per week is between -0.10% or 0.10% for most (between -5% to 5% APR). It can be positive if loaning out the money saves you of trouble of storing it for instance.

2. Don't know in Poloniex, but in CK if you buy the bonds with weekly return (consols) the return is 0.57% (in addition, they have increased in value but they may also decrease so let's not account for that).

3. Exchanges have a quite short life expectancy, and the probability of losing all your money is staggeringly high. Even if we expect an exchange to live 5 years on average (which none of them has done so far!), the weekly risk of loss is -0.40%. Estimating the default risk carefully is very important and very difficult. Scam exchanges live a few months and scam lenders have no interest in paying back at all. Even good borrowers, such as governments, corporations and upstanding people, have an annual historical default risk of 1-3%, with some recovery value from guarantees (put -0.02...-0.06 in weekly).

4. Every action in market is good for growing the market imo so participating in the loan market (or investing in CK) is a net positive, but for a small player this is only a small factor perhaps 0.05%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( 0.0 + 0.57 - 0.4 + 0.05 ) % = +0.22% per week positive return. Calculate yours!

Risto,

Could you please describe the math you used to measure the exchange default risk??

[wpalczynski]

Does anyone have a chart showing historical support and resistance and do you guys think it has any bearing going forward?

[TrueCryptonaire]

It feeds my self-interest to get the highest possible interest for my loans. If I stab someone to the back, what shall I expect to get back? Praises? I think others will stab me also so it is my best interest to play nicely so to say...

For me it is simply important to get the coins employed as much as possible but at the highest possible rate, not at minimum interest.

-cartel talk-

I feel very uncomfortable reading this. It opens our flank to all kinds of attacks. From troll polemics to more serious legal issues, of which not the least is legal action against the exchange.

Strangely, I am not feeling that uncomfortable.
Cartels are something that in the free world should be able to form. Personally I am not that afraid of troll attacks since I do not simply care, however I see your point, some people might be more sensitive to internet trolls in a way that those trolls might have some power over them. Generally speaking, smart money people however do not care so much about trolls screaming from their caves.

To lend XMR to shorters is basically the only thing one can do with XMR in real world. Personally I am interested in investing to assets that bring me passive income but are also backed by a collateral. XMR loans in Polo is such asset.

You conveniently left out the legal issues. We should also be able to grow weed in a free world but that doesn't make it so.

You admitted to your self interest upthread  so no point in discussing this. You'd probably sell your cat to a specialties restaurant if the price were right.

Lastly, no one is saying you shouldn't lend your XMR and earn money with it. Publicly discussing the formation of a cartel is a whole different issue.

thanks for the laugh for today buddy LOL 

When our cats are annoying I have said to my wife we should sell them but I doubt nobody buys them since they are pretty much worthless in monetary terms. The only things they do are
1) eating
2) shitting
3) sleeping
4) making noises early in the morning when I want to sleep which is the annoying part

[dEBRUYNE]

Does anyone have a chart showing historical support and resistance and do you guys think it has any bearing going forward?

Major support zone currently at 165-170k. Resistance zones are 235-246k, 265-270k and ~280k.

@Rpietila, both BTC-E and Bitstamp are close to the 5 year mark though.

[luigi1111]

Are these projects related?

Is Moneta one of the private companies working with Blockstream?

"To my mind, Zerocoin and Zerocash are the low-hanging fruit of sidechains. Just transfer your bitcoin to a sidechain that implements one of those protocols, and voila, instant Bitcoin anonymity; you can send or receive money while maintaining mathematically perfect privacy."


Is it associated with XMR in anyway?

"Will this new feature let Satoshi spend his coins without anyone being able to know he moved them?"

Interesting question. IDK.

I should give credit to americanpegasus for coming up with that question.

Interestingly, adding ring sigs to Bitcoin is the only way I can think of that would allow Satoshi to spend his coins without anyone knowing (for sure). I believe most of his presumed holdings have their public keys exposed, so it could actually work.

CoinJoin, CT, all manner of sidechains, etc., cannot help Satoshi at all.

[dEBRUYNE]

Are these projects related?

Is Moneta one of the private companies working with Blockstream?

"To my mind, Zerocoin and Zerocash are the low-hanging fruit of sidechains. Just transfer your bitcoin to a sidechain that implements one of those protocols, and voila, instant Bitcoin anonymity; you can send or receive money while maintaining mathematically perfect privacy."


Is it associated with XMR in anyway?

"Will this new feature let Satoshi spend his coins without anyone being able to know he moved them?"

Interesting question. IDK.

I should give credit to americanpegasus for coming up with that question.

Interestingly, adding ring sigs to Bitcoin is the only way I can think of that would allow Satoshi to spend his coins without anyone knowing (for sure). I believe most of his presumed holdings have their public keys exposed, so it could actually work.

CoinJoin, CT, all manner of sidechains, etc., cannot help Satoshi at all.

Mandatory Coinjoin + CT enforced on the protocol level would make BTC fungible though.

[luigi1111]

Are these projects related?

Is Moneta one of the private companies working with Blockstream?

"To my mind, Zerocoin and Zerocash are the low-hanging fruit of sidechains. Just transfer your bitcoin to a sidechain that implements one of those protocols, and voila, instant Bitcoin anonymity; you can send or receive money while maintaining mathematically perfect privacy."


Is it associated with XMR in anyway?

"Will this new feature let Satoshi spend his coins without anyone being able to know he moved them?"

Interesting question. IDK.

I should give credit to americanpegasus for coming up with that question.

Interestingly, adding ring sigs to Bitcoin is the only way I can think of that would allow Satoshi to spend his coins without anyone knowing (for sure). I believe most of his presumed holdings have their public keys exposed, so it could actually work.

CoinJoin, CT, all manner of sidechains, etc., cannot help Satoshi at all.

Mandatory Coinjoin + CT enforced on the protocol level would make BTC fungible though.

It would make new outputs pretty fungible, yes. I question that CoinJoin can actually be made mandatory (beyond the obvious political impossibility).

[klee]

Does anyone have a chart showing historical support and resistance and do you guys think it has any bearing going forward?

Bitcoinwisdom -> 3d (or 1w) -> see where we bottomed - support -  (0.001) and where we find tops (basically from 0.002 up to 0.0055, every 0.0005 satoshi, resistances).

[americanpegasus]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring: 
 
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin. 
 
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain. 
 
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain. 

[dEBRUYNE]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring: 
 
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin. 
 
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain. 
 
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain. 

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

[binaryFate]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring:  
  
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin.  
  
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain.  
  
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain.  

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

Not true. You'd get a whole lot of things to require cooperation of the involved parties, that you at the moment get whether they like it or not. (detective work, tracing, proovable reserves...). Some others are technically not that clear, depending how private you go. The concept of colored coins is antagonist to perfect fungibility (if such thing exists) for instance.

[dEBRUYNE]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring:  
  
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin.  
  
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain.  
  
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain.  

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

Not true. You'd get a whole lot of things to require cooperation of the involved parties, that you at the moment get whether they like it or not. (detective work, tracing, proovable reserves...). Some others are technically not that clear, depending how private you go. The concept of colored coins is antagonist to perfect fungibility (if such thing exists) for instance.

Fluffypony and dnaleor's comments here suggest otherwise though:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/47288y/if_bitcoin_added_ring_signatures_mandatory_mixing/

[binaryFate]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring:  
  
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin.  
  
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain.  
  
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain.  

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

Not true. You'd get a whole lot of things to require cooperation of the involved parties, that you at the moment get whether they like it or not. (detective work, tracing, proovable reserves...). Some others are technically not that clear, depending how private you go. The concept of colored coins is antagonist to perfect fungibility (if such thing exists) for instance.

Fluffypony and dnaleor's comments here suggest otherwise though:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/47288y/if_bitcoin_added_ring_signatures_mandatory_mixing/

They're saying you can have fungibility between the colored coins themselves. That assumes you reduce your degree on fungibility already (colored vs. not colored). Monero isn't perfectly fungible (though it's the best we know). I thought your remark was about an hypothetic "ideally" fungible and private Bitcoin, but I realize you probably meant "just as Monero".

[iCEBREAKER]

@Rpietila, both BTC-E and Bitstamp are close to the 5 year mark though.

AFAIK, MPEX is older than both of those.

We need an RPEX for securities (like dev bonds) and XMR-E (for fiat).

[dEBRUYNE]

https://medium.com/@elliotolds/lesser-known-reasons-to-keep-blocks-small-in-the-words-of-bitcoin-core-developers-44861968185e#.966rqftgw

#2 is why a tail emission accompanying an adaptive blocksize limit is of utmost importance.

[smooth]

https://medium.com/@elliotolds/lesser-known-reasons-to-keep-blocks-small-in-the-words-of-bitcoin-core-developers-44861968185e#.966rqftgw

#2 is why a tail emission accompanying an adaptive blocksize limit is of utmost importance.

The tail emission by itself is largely sufficient to address the core of the "fee pressure/market" issue, but the adaptive blocksize is also useful to balance between increasing demand and the resource requirements of a growing blockchain.

[smoothie]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring:  
  
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin.  
  
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain.  
  
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain.  

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

Not true. You'd get a whole lot of things to require cooperation of the involved parties, that you at the moment get whether they like it or not. (detective work, tracing, proovable reserves...). Some others are technically not that clear, depending how private you go. The concept of colored coins is antagonist to perfect fungibility (if such thing exists) for instance.

The concept of "colored coins" makes me think of coining the term "CRYPTO RACISM"....

"Don't hate me because I'm black!"

Monero does not crypto-racially discriminate. <----- could be a slogan for Monero lol

[dEBRUYNE]

Any update on adding Monero? With the database implemented it won't take many resources to host it.

Thanks for the update. Glad to hear the improvement we waited for has been implemented.

I can't make any promises but we will look into it.

Perhaps soon(tm) :-P

[iCEBREAKER]

Here is the big issue everyone is ignoring:  
  
If somehow mandatory ring signatures, and protocol level mixing, etc etc were all added to Bitcoin.... Then we would need a new Bitcoin.  
  
Why?  Because a public, non-fungible Blockchain enables applications and functions that can't mathematically and logically be done with a fungible and private Blockchain.  
  
So there is no point.  If you were born with a natural talent for coding or painting, don't try to be a football superstar.  Develop your natural talent - in the case of Bitcoin this is being a public and non-fungible Blockchain.  

There isn't really a thing a private, fungible Blockchain can't do which a public, non-fungible Blockchain can do.

Not true. You'd get a whole lot of things to require cooperation of the involved parties, that you at the moment get whether they like it or not. (detective work, tracing, proovable reserves...). Some others are technically not that clear, depending how private you go. The concept of colored coins is antagonist to perfect fungibility (if such thing exists) for instance.

The concept of "colored coins" makes me think of coining the term "CRYPTO RACISM"....

"Don't hate me because I'm black!"

Monero does not crypto-racially discriminate. <----- could be a slogan for Monero lol

We been troddin' through the Babylonian Empire of Banksters and Bitcoin for many long years...

Monero is the Promised Land.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBeHQhtU0VM

In Z10N, all coins are equal before The Creator.