[XMR] Monero Speculation

[newb4now]

Funny coin, block reward already below 7xmr ) In two years poof no more block reward ) Whoever came up with this is a total retard

That is not true. There will be rewards 2 years from now.

[americanpegasus]

When Monero reaches 400 000 usd per coin I might spend fractions of Moneros for payments but perhaps not to sell them. Fiat money I do not need as long as I am able to purchase the stuff I need with Moneros. Therefore do not expect me to dump any serious amounts of coins. Bear in mind, the cost of food today was less than 3 euros so it means I would overspend if I pay 0.00001 XMR for my daily consumption. And the merchant might hold the Moneros at that point which creates higher value for Monero.

 
 
I think the real question is at what point do you start handing over chunks of your hoard to third parties for safe keeping, if only to diversify your security. 
 
For example, it would be pretty stupid to have 5 billion in cash under a mattress.  Such a purse would attract the wrong sort.  A smart billionaire would have his fortune spread around many institutions which safe guard it for him, and also have his own private nest egg such that if every institution in the world turned against him/her, they would still be wealthy.

[dEBRUYNE]

Market still looking bullish in my opinion. Furthermore, someone took out +- 8k in shorts and subsequently dumped them on the bids.

EDIT: Still taking out shorts and subsequently dumping them. Up to +- 10k now I estimate.

EDIT2: Up to +- 13k now. All market dumped.

EDIT3: Make that +-14k. Bear in mind that he has to buy it back sometime.

EDIT4: He took out another 3-4k which are slowly being dumped now, totalling +- 18k.

[americanpegasus]

Just had an amusing argument with a coworker who has heard my Monero exploits and saw me looking Polo earlier.  
  

"So if I buy Monero, where will it be at in 6 months?"    
  
"I don't know and anyone who says they do is probably lying."  
  
"But you own it."  
  
"Yes, a lot.  Everything I have is in it."  
  
"So what if I put 30 thousand dollars in it.  Will I double it?"  
  
"I don't think you should do that.  Are you prepared to lose every cent of that 30 thousand dollars?"  
  
"Well no, I don't want to lose that money."  
  
"Then definitely don't put it in cryptocurrency.  If you want some, only put in what you are prepared to totally lose."  
  
"Ok, but what are the chances of it going to zero?"  
  
"I don't know - I can only tell you that I have all my savings into it, and I am prepared to lose every dime of that.  It will hurt, but I will still be eating.  You should not buy this if you don't understand it."  
  
"Ok, but someone surely understand it.  What are they saying Monero goes to say.... by the end of the year?"  
  
"Listen, I am the smartest person you have access to regarding this stuff, and I simply don't know - nor would it be ethical for me to guess when I already own it and you are considering putting money into this.  I could ask the smartest person I have access to about this, and they still probably wouldn't know."  
  
"Ok, so what if I put 30 thousand dollars into this."  
  
"What if I told you there was a hot penny stock that could guarantee to double your money in 6 months; would you buy it?"  
  
"Well, no."  
  
"So why are you so gung ho to shovel so much money into this?"  
  
"What was Monero at 2 months ago?"  
  
"About 40 cents."  
  
"What is it now?"  
  
"80 cents."  
  
"So I could have already doubled my money?  Fuckkkk."  
  
"Yes, but that is the past.  Now you have to decide if it's worth 80 cents.  I think you should read about it and consider putting in just a little money, no more than you are willing to completely lose."

 

Bottom line: it happened before with Bitcoin and it will happen again.  There's going to be some hardcore FOMO going around and it's going to cause a lot of people to lose money buying Monero at the peak.  Make sure you don't promise anyone anything with regards to it - and let them know you are prepared for it to go to zero, even if you hope it doesn't.

[SmoothCurves]

Just had an amusing argument with a coworker who has heard my Monero exploits and saw me looking Polo earlier.  
  

"So if I buy Monero, where will it be at in 6 months?"    
  
"I don't know and anyone who says they do is probably lying."  
  
"But you own it."  
  
"Yes, a lot.  Everything I have is in it."  
  
"So what if I put 30 thousand dollars in it.  Will I double it?"  
  
"I don't think you should do that.  Are you prepared to lose every cent of that 30 thousand dollars?"  
  
"Well no, I don't want to lose that money."  
  
"Then definitely don't put it in cryptocurrency.  If you want some, only put in what you are prepared to totally lose."  
  
"Ok, but what are the chances of it going to zero?"  
  
"I don't know - I can only tell you that I have all my savings into it, and I am prepared to lose every dime of that.  It will hurt, but I will still be eating.  You should not buy this if you don't understand it."  
  
"Ok, but someone surely understand it.  What are they saying Monero goes to say.... by the end of the year?"  
  
"Listen, I am the smartest person you have access to regarding this stuff, and I simply don't know - nor would it be ethical for me to guess when I already own it and you are considering putting money into this.  I could ask the smartest person I have access to about this, and they still probably wouldn't know."  
  
"Ok, so what if I put 30 thousand dollars into this."  
  
"What if I told you there was a hot penny stock that could guarantee to double your money in 6 months; would you buy it?"  
  
"Well, no."  
  
"So why are you so gung ho to shovel so much money into this?"  
  
"What was Monero at 2 months ago?"  
  
"About 40 cents."  
  
"What is it now?"  
  
"80 cents."  
  
"So I could have already doubled my money?  Fuckkkk."  
  
"Yes, but that is the past.  Now you have to decide if it's worth 80 cents.  I think you should read about it and consider putting in just a little money, no more than you are willing to completely lose."

 

Bottom line: it happened before with Bitcoin and it will happen again.  There's going to be some hardcore FOMO going around and it's going to cause a lot of people to lose money buying Monero at the peak.  Make sure you don't promise anyone anything with regards to it - and let them know you are prepared for it to go to zero, even if you hope it doesn't.

I had a similar discussion with a friend two months ago. Although he only wanted to invest $1500 - Anyway, He did it and is now happy about doubling his money.

[dEBRUYNE]

Market still looking bullish in my opinion. Furthermore, someone took out +- 8k in shorts and subsequently dumped them on the bids.

EDIT: Still taking out shorts and subsequently dumping them. Up to +- 10k now I estimate.

EDIT2: Up to +- 13k now. All market dumped.

EDIT3: Make that +-14k. Bear in mind that he has to buy it back sometime.

EDIT4: He took out another 3-4k which are slowly being dumped now, totalling +- 18k.

He took out another batch of shorts and subsequently market dumped them. I estimate his short outstanding currently is +- 22k. Rates are also over 0.1%

[Xtrata]

Market still looking bullish in my opinion. Furthermore, someone took out +- 8k in shorts and subsequently dumped them on the bids.

EDIT: Still taking out shorts and subsequently dumping them. Up to +- 10k now I estimate.

EDIT2: Up to +- 13k now. All market dumped.

EDIT3: Make that +-14k. Bear in mind that he has to buy it back sometime.

EDIT4: He took out another 3-4k which are slowly being dumped now, totalling +- 18k.

He took out another batch of shorts and subsequently market dumped them. I estimate his short outstanding currently is +- 22k. Rates are also over 0.1%

Which means what? 

[dEBRUYNE]

Market still looking bullish in my opinion. Furthermore, someone took out +- 8k in shorts and subsequently dumped them on the bids.

EDIT: Still taking out shorts and subsequently dumping them. Up to +- 10k now I estimate.

EDIT2: Up to +- 13k now. All market dumped.

EDIT3: Make that +-14k. Bear in mind that he has to buy it back sometime.

EDIT4: He took out another 3-4k which are slowly being dumped now, totalling +- 18k.

He took out another batch of shorts and subsequently market dumped them. I estimate his short outstanding currently is +- 22k. Rates are also over 0.1%

Which means what?  

Here is an explanation on short selling and what short squeeze is:

Well, first you need to know what short selling is. Shorting a stock is an investor borrowing a stock that you then sell at the original price but agree to buy back once the price drops. Here's an example: Let's say you think Killabri Cookies is priced too high at $30 a share. You borrow 100 shares of that stock from your broker and sell them for $30 a share. Few days later it comes out that Killabri Cookies has crack addicts in the kitchen and the price drops to $25 a share. You then buy back the stock as per your agreement with your broker but you're buying at $25 instead of $30 - you're making a profit of $5 a share.

Now, a short squeeze occurs when the opposite of what I described above happens - let's say you borrow those 100 shares at $30 a piece thinking Killabri Cookies is gonna go down, but a few days later after you buy a brand new product hits the line that changes everything and the stock balloons to $40 a share. You're stuck holding shares you thought were going to collapse when you're now going to owe money back to your broker. If enough short sellers think they need to cover their position by buying enough stock to make sure they don't lose money, that inflates the stock price substantially - hence the "squeeze" of someone trying to stay short on the stock.

The same concept applies to cryptocurrencies. However, instead of borrowing from "your broker" traders can borrow from other people at Poloniex in the lending market. See:

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

[macsga]

A long story short: It means the price is -probably- heavily manipulated at the moment. XMR shows far more stable now than most alts and believe it or not the price does not represent its true potential. If you don't want to take my word for it, check volume-wise the poloniex alt-trading list. For nearly half a day this was the only altcoin that had a positive sign...

[dEBRUYNE]

Rates up to 0.28% now. I estimate that his total short position is currently around 30k XMR, which of course have to be bought back at some point.

[hiddensphinx]

Rates up to 0.28% now. I estimate that his total short position is currently around 30k XMR, which of course have to be bought back at some point.

What if another whale else comes along and goes long buys pushing the price higher

Does that mean this shorter gets liquidated?

[dEBRUYNE]

Rates up to 0.28% now. I estimate that his total short position is currently around 30k XMR, which of course have to be bought back at some point.

What if another whale else comes along and goes long buys pushing the price higher

Does that mean this shorter gets liquidated?

Yes, he would have to buy everything back from the asks. Check out the example of short selling and short squeeze I posted before.

Meanwhile, he took out another 5.5k and put it at 185k as well. I estimate that his open position is +- 35k currently.

[smooth]

Rates up to 0.28% now. I estimate that his total short position is currently around 30k XMR, which of course have to be bought back at some point.

What if another whale else comes along and goes long buys pushing the price higher

Does that mean this shorter gets liquidated?

It depends on the amount of collateral being used to support the trade. Eventually the losses will be large enough that liquidations will occur, but there is no way to know specifically when that is. You can make guesses based on the assumptions of say, high, medium, or low leverage. High being the minimum collateral to open the trade of course.

EDIT: another complicating factor is that the collateral can be any of the margin coins. Declines in the value of the collateral can also trigger liquidations.

[Mr Felt]

Rates up to 0.28% now. I estimate that his total short position is currently around 30k XMR, which of course have to be bought back at some point.

What if another whale else comes along and goes long buys pushing the price higher

Does that mean this shorter gets liquidated?

Great question.  Not sure I know the answer exactly, but I *think* the answer is "No, not necessarily" since multiple variable can impact liquidation triggers (e.g., time).

[dEBRUYNE]

Another thing I have noticed is that the big buy wall at DASH/BTC on Poloniex disappeared. It was around 100 BTC and presumably belonged to Otoh, a large DASH whale. It could very well be that he removed it from the bids to use as collateral to short XMR. This is a bit speculation though.

[dEBRUYNE]

Posted on reddit:

http://themerkle.com/technicalanalysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-02252016/

[aminorex]

The simplest estimate to make (not necessarily the most reliable) is that the price is in inverse ratio to the emission.  So, roughly Moore's law.

[iCEBREAKER]

Rates up to 0.28% now.

Anyone lending their coins for less than 0.1% should feel very very stupid right about now.  I hope they enjoy their dust while those of use with a spine collect real money.

[iCEBREAKER]

Another thing I have noticed is that the big buy wall at DASH/BTC on Poloniex disappeared. It was around 100 BTC and presumably belonged to Otoh, a large DASH whale. It could very well be that he removed it from the bids to use as collateral to short XMR. This is a bit speculation though.

Only 30 Masternodes to ~zero.  Creates quite a large incentive to be the first to liquidate Masternodes and dump the Dash while you still can.

[luigi1111]

URL here:

https://moneroaddress.org/

Which is simply a port of:

https://github.com/moneromooo-monero/monero-wallet-generator

Finally, the seed is compatible with both MyMonero and simplewallet.
 

mymonero.com generates a 13 word seed, but moneroaddress.org uses 25 words.

In order to generate a wallet that's compatible with both, you have to start by generating a 25 word wallet at moneroaddress.org.  Then, you go to mymonero.com and enter the 25 word seed (mymonero.com will accept 25 word seeds, though it doesn't generate them).

Actually, it does (if you don't mind using your browser console).

Open your browser console and enter: "mn_encode(random_scalar());" and log in with the words it returns.