[XMR] Monero Speculation

[meme magic]

Rates up to 0.28% now.

Anyone lending their coins for less than 0.1% should feel very very stupid right about now.  I hope they enjoy their dust while those of use with a spine collect real money.

There's 100k up for loans now, and it seems our little squirrel is outta nuts.

[americanpegasus]

I really hope someone doesn't get their account lightning bolted in an epic Monero short squeeze, but it's a distinct possibility if the sell side vanishes as a result of opportune cooperation and someone massively short that is forced to cover.  
  
Why anyone would even begin to short Monero blows my mind - it is a tiny asset with unlimited upside potential.  
  
I can only imagine that the Dash faithful might be attacking in a last ditch effort to save their currency, but it is shortsighted.  What is inevitable is a race to exits with Dash as it gets shorted into nothingness, the network collapses, and every whale rushes into Monero... One by one.

In any case, I suppose it's conceivable we break 170k support and collapse back to the realm of 140k to 170k.  I would never say never, as trading has surprised me too much.  I hope we don't, and would be annoyed if it happened but will simply grit my teeth and continue to acquire.  As they say in the investing world: the prospectus hasn't changed, just sentiment. 
 
But it feels far more likely that we break to the upside and finally smash through that 210k resistance in a series of epic green candles that obliterate any short standing in the way, and creates a massive FOMO throughout Poloniex.  

[TrueCryptonaire]

Just had an amusing argument with a coworker who has heard my Monero exploits and saw me looking Polo earlier.  
  

"So if I buy Monero, where will it be at in 6 months?"    
  
"I don't know and anyone who says they do is probably lying."  
  
"But you own it."  
  
"Yes, a lot.  Everything I have is in it."  
  
"So what if I put 30 thousand dollars in it.  Will I double it?"  
  
"I don't think you should do that.  Are you prepared to lose every cent of that 30 thousand dollars?"  
  
"Well no, I don't want to lose that money."  
  
"Then definitely don't put it in cryptocurrency.  If you want some, only put in what you are prepared to totally lose."  
  
"Ok, but what are the chances of it going to zero?"  
  
"I don't know - I can only tell you that I have all my savings into it, and I am prepared to lose every dime of that.  It will hurt, but I will still be eating.  You should not buy this if you don't understand it."  
  
"Ok, but someone surely understand it.  What are they saying Monero goes to say.... by the end of the year?"  
  
"Listen, I am the smartest person you have access to regarding this stuff, and I simply don't know - nor would it be ethical for me to guess when I already own it and you are considering putting money into this.  I could ask the smartest person I have access to about this, and they still probably wouldn't know."  
  
"Ok, so what if I put 30 thousand dollars into this."  
  
"What if I told you there was a hot penny stock that could guarantee to double your money in 6 months; would you buy it?"  
  
"Well, no."  
  
"So why are you so gung ho to shovel so much money into this?"  
  
"What was Monero at 2 months ago?"  
  
"About 40 cents."  
  
"What is it now?"  
  
"80 cents."  
  
"So I could have already doubled my money?  Fuckkkk."  
  
"Yes, but that is the past.  Now you have to decide if it's worth 80 cents.  I think you should read about it and consider putting in just a little money, no more than you are willing to completely lose."

 

Bottom line: it happened before with Bitcoin and it will happen again.  There's going to be some hardcore FOMO going around and it's going to cause a lot of people to lose money buying Monero at the peak.  Make sure you don't promise anyone anything with regards to it - and let them know you are prepared for it to go to zero, even if you hope it doesn't.

Monero doesn't need many people like you to become a success. A few people putting all their savings into XMR can alone give a significiant push to the marketcap of Monero as there is no way to buy quantities of coins without a price reaction. At some point when we are in the minimum block reward and the amount of money chasing after Moneros will increase make some parabolic moves to Monero.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Rates up to 0.28% now.

Anyone lending their coins for less than 0.1% should feel very very stupid right about now.  I hope they enjoy their dust while those of use with a spine collect real money.

These interest rates will squeeze Moneros from the weak selling hands to my strong hodling arms.

[GingerAle]

Can anyone explain to me how lending monero does any good for monero at all?

The way I figure it, lending monero, at any rate, doesn't make any sense. Because even if its at 5%, you simply borrow monero, dump, then place a buy wall with you new bitcoin right above the price you dumped to. So you're bound to buyback the monero you just sold + more monero to cover the lending rate.

or do I not get markets. This second option is highly likely.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Can anyone explain to me how lending monero does any good for monero at all?

The way I figure it, lending monero, at any rate, doesn't make any sense. Because even if its at 5%, you simply borrow monero, dump, then place a buy wall with you new bitcoin right above the price you dumped to. So you're bound to buyback the monero you just sold + more monero to cover the lending rate.

or do I not get markets. This second option is highly likely.

The interest payments squeezes more Moneros from the market when repaid than initially borrowed.

[rpietila]

AFAIK (correct me if wrong), Poloniex does not hold the account owner personally at risk if the short game goes bust. All they can do is to liquidate the collateral. In the illiquid markets, this can cause anything to happen. So the real risk is on anyone who holds any value there. It is tempting to operate this kind of platforms but the black swan has a long, fat tail...

And when you calculate that someone is short X coins and "has to cover", don't forget that it is at least possible that he is a legitimate (covered) short. Someone might for tax or other reasons be shorting (instead of selling his position) to skim some profits while waiting for m00n.

[smooth]

AFAIK (correct me if wrong), Poloniex does not hold the account owner personally at risk if the short game goes bust.

According to their Terms of Use, they do hold the account holder responsible:

If, after your positions and assets are liquidated, your account still contains insufficient funds to settle your debts to lenders, you will be responsible for any additional funds owed

However, if the account holder doesn't pay, the risk then theoretically falls next on the lender:

When you lend to other users using the Platform’s P2P lending system, you risk the loss of an unpaid principle if the borrower defaults on a loan and liquidation of the borrower's account fails to raise sufficient funds to cover his or her debt.

In practice, I agree true black swan risks probably exist (aside from those that exist outside the lending system altogether).

[TrueCryptonaire]

AFAIK (correct me if wrong), Poloniex does not hold the account owner personally at risk if the short game goes bust. All they can do is to liquidate the collateral. In the illiquid markets, this can cause anything to happen. So the real risk is on anyone who holds any value there. It is tempting to operate this kind of platforms but the black swan has a long, fat tail...

And when you calculate that someone is short X coins and "has to cover", don't forget that it is at least possible that he is a legitimate (covered) short. Someone might for tax or other reasons be shorting (instead of selling his position) to skim some profits while waiting for m00n.

When the banks offer mortgages, they take similar risk. Sometimes a house/appartment is under water and a borrower defaults.
There are risks. My job as a lender is to estimate the probabilities and compare it to the reward I am getting. Definetely, if the interest rates are sub 0.1 % per day, it is not worth the risk.

[primer-]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

[jwinterm]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

It's kind of interesting that iCEBREAKER was apparently mixed up in this scam ( http://www.deanslyons.com/PDFs/2014-03-25-Plaintiff-s-First-Amended-Petition.pdf ; interesting aside - who'd have thought you'd see bitcointalk screenshots in court proceedings) with cypherdoc, and subsequently they each ended up on opposite sides of the big block/small block bitcoin debate. Since they were both allegedly paid shills for hashfast, maybe blockstream is now paying iCEBREAKER for shilling and coinbase is paying cypherdoc to shill blocksize arguments. Who knows, maybe fluffypony is paying iCEBREAKER for shilling Monero

[primer-]

... Who knows, maybe fluffypony is paying iCEBREAKER for shilling Monero

Fluffypony is a garage dweller, he would have to sell his wife to afford iCEBREAKER's services

[rpietila]

AFAIK (correct me if wrong), Poloniex does not hold the account owner personally at risk if the short game goes bust.

According to their Terms of Use, they do hold the account holder responsible:

If, after your positions and assets are liquidated, your account still contains insufficient funds to settle your debts to lenders, you will be responsible for any additional funds owed

However, if the account holder doesn't pay, the risk then theoretically falls next on the lender:

When you lend to other users using the Platform’s P2P lending system, you risk the loss of an unpaid principle if the borrower defaults on a loan and liquidation of the borrower's account fails to raise sufficient funds to cover his or her debt.

In practice, I agree true black swan risks probably exist (aside from those that exist outside the lending system altogether).

They may be able to recover the funds from the rogue shorts, but I would not count on that.

As a non-borrowing nor lending customer, I am very happy that the lenders are the next in line, which should shield the ordinary users from any risk as naturally no more funds can be lost than what the lenders have provided.

Thank you.

[TrueCryptonaire]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

I have Moneros waiting for you and other bears to be lent out.
Please short and pay me some interest. I am generously giving out loans with max. maturity (60 days) at these rates so no hurry to repay.
I am considering buying coins from the shorters and re-lending them back to them so that they can short and sell those coins twice. 

[primer-]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

I have Moneros waiting for you and other bears to be lent out.
Please short and pay me some interest. I am generously giving out loans with max. maturity (60 days) at these rates so no hurry to repay.
I am considering buying coins from the shorters and re-lending them back to them so that they can short and sell those coins twice.  

Which part of 'I mine with 350KH/s' don't you understand ? I dump as i go..

Blocks mined today :

Code:

973035		943206526	afbd884608bc5853c68d240d5bea2b4ac042682a92c7e088ba45e98f3b4fd848	2/26/2016, 3:41:17 PM	55%
973000		906928883	cfe4d99a58ed7ac77d3d144477af665e638352b3489c8a820463ec0ac66d5314	2/26/2016, 3:14:30 PM	231%
972842		825242842	bb745914dd53a6249db49a59b47334c8ec86ef200027279bf8ecd8c1f2bb86bb	2/26/2016, 1:00:39 PM	123%
972767		765597888	300abd24451af2013744943cfcdecbc529f6f4a9580ab0732335d0e57541e518	2/26/2016, 11:54:57 AM	6%
972762		765853740	4c9622f06237c88376c6dc96e457cabb4855b8c297e0b7f247208cf108cdf632	2/26/2016, 11:52:07 AM	116%
972673		710079684	8579f0f5ad47cb90d58f3475169b9fad3170289d16fd7845a6ecd8263ce58e27	2/26/2016, 10:53:58 AM	39%
972642		707692305	bae42dda2b91a0cf2b589e89effd39d0ae68f9b121ca4634fd231390ae7ab92e	2/26/2016, 10:34:43 AM	23%
972628		709127126	63e3734fbef9d0430da495b1763193318f7e5a0c87d524300c0af5a09774f2cd	2/26/2016, 10:22:53 AM	7%
972621		710618121	91d49911ff9a45f991c7f9aebf41641b418fd9ccfb7f31e7b07d4f4fa43be411	2/26/2016, 10:19:22 AM	22%
972606		711093184	1d824f1d074ea8af08785323c8918a84159b2a52125ff5e7570a48d97f02e872	2/26/2016, 10:07:14 AM	13%
972593		707764980	ceef28a8bf9a337a24978b10a44633ab5c44d800d41e16180e081a79c85d1778	2/26/2016, 9:59:50 AM	17%
972584		705135962	666a227d381c8591c1268a7582af60a2736c2b02236562a7f372ecb235f79143	2/26/2016, 9:50:51 AM	25%
972569		707322523	1e28819956f4fdff128f8bd34c3b673f52b2b01c731faa2a4e76fc99721290c2	2/26/2016, 9:36:56 AM	64%
972528		718735560	a23cf0b9eb491a4548a222d3160949c3cbdf8ea3cc38e0eaff86cd6721c3504d	2/26/2016, 9:03:13 AM	376%
972307		781819080	7dbdd78a35e6f7eba4775bf6cfee3a00303c52adbb0c9cb1b08c54dcdd18d33c	2/26/2016, 5:44:21 AM	142%
972243		820443578	97934dcf7b6d720570b84ac23e8f4e097173206fa7801b402b24337654fbd74b	2/26/2016, 4:22:45 AM	41%
972220		829047524	ee70cc3da1bc95eb0705fedb5d2504f77156ae7a14db45c6f151832b0235702f	2/26/2016, 3:57:41 AM	43%
972202		846321681	0c11d3b4eb00bb8c828e23c67d91f37e104fa2c1de8e45f77f42c3b6c040f554	2/26/2016, 3:32:00 AM	112%
972145		894540090	4d7642989d6779f6b913d2021d71e8e15d7eb71fda1c44adc5ae9ebe89a6ae89	2/26/2016, 2:23:02 AM	14%
972136		904230855	705e9fad0150191c6fb7fa3a417bec49936a0225387613ed4727977b5e1d2563	2/26/2016, 2:14:00 AM	71%
972103		926052180	178d01dbab60418ea676e2cdfeaf0e9613076c9cc221b3970fb8b8f0e913db9a	2/26/2016, 1:26:35 AM	7%
972101		930735847	7a06c66657142d935b7c22e755214f3164ca661b30e6e7d0f649b33650577516	2/26/2016, 1:21:47 AM	32%
972092		928898437	9539ff685b7d385493c7d6fee831414630406bf49e157e52fdb6d82d144ec416	2/26/2016, 1:00:27 AM	43%
972074		934587637	17fdd790e0947eec9619a4986c31e80b68bf59108f2e1dcf625cd56b613786b4	2/26/2016, 12:31:55 AM	307%

[luigi1111]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

I see this thrown around a lot, but without any accompanying evidence. Obviously the nick iCEBREAKER appears to have been involved somehow, but in what capacity no one seems to know.

[dEBRUYNE]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

I see this thrown around a lot, but without any accompanying evidence. Obviously the nick iCEBREAKER appears to have been involved somehow, but in what capacity no one seems to know.

I am not sure either if it confirmed it was him. In one of the screenshots he states:

To be fair, it's possible the site was under attack. Haters abound.

Wouldn't he know for sure if he was the CEO? Not trying to defend anyone here, but the evidence is kind of inconclusive.

[americanpegasus]

The Satoshi Roundtable event is happening this weekend.    
  
I feel confident there will be at least a few people who may have disregarded Monero previously as 'just another altcoin', will talk to fluffyponyza at this event, and subsequently have the same awakening we have and realize this going to be really big.  Even outside of the crypto world, there are reps from places like Fidelity Investments etc.  
  
Some of these parties may then want in.  
  
I suggest, gentlemen and ladies, we let them in wholeheartedly and welcome them into the flock.
  
But not cheaply.  Perhaps now is the time to pull those asks off the market and find out what Monero's true market value is?  

[TrueCryptonaire]

The Satoshi Roundtable event is happening this weekend.    
  
I feel confident there will be at least a few people who may have disregarded Monero previously as 'just another altcoin', talk to fluffyponyza at this event, and subsequently have the same awakening we have and realize this going to be really big.  Even outside of the crypto world, there are reps from places like Fidelity Investments etc. 
  
Some of these parties may then want in.  
  
I suggest, gentlemen and ladies, we let them it wholeheartedly and welcome them into the flock.
  
But not cheaply.  Perhaps now is the time to pull those asks off the market and find out what Monero's true market value is?  

Wise words, man! My lowest ask is at 20 BTC/XMR and I am selling at that price only 0.05 XMR worth of 1 BTC.

[luigi1111]

...

This community is so "polluted" ...

iCEBRAKER was a former CEO of Hashfast, criminal ASIC scammer with a lawsuit in progress.
No wonder he's all-in in Monero, he had to 'wash' his stolen bitcoins...

I see this thrown around a lot, but without any accompanying evidence. Obviously the nick iCEBREAKER appears to have been involved somehow, but in what capacity no one seems to know.

I am not sure either if it confirmed it was him. In one of the screenshots he states:

To be fair, it's possible the site was under attack. Haters abound.

Wouldn't he know for sure if he was the CEO? Not trying to defend anyone here, but the evidence is kind of inconclusive.

Haha, of course he would know. As far as I've seen, he doesn't talk about it.