[XMR] Monero Speculation

[elrippo]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

Well, every time the shorters step in the rise is shortly ahead  

[1713588834]

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[phoenix rises]

Very unsurprised to see someone giving it a whack ahead of ZCash release. That was pretty predictable - the story has been building to this crescendo. Interesting to see how much follow through there is though with the ZCash futures priced so high ...
Bear trap ??

[KeyJockey]

I think if the next bitcoin ascent takes place as many people are expecting all alts will take a massive dump regardless of their technical superiority, the better ones, Monero included IMO, will eventually make really nice gains but I think at the onset of the next BTC bubble it will be a bloodbath for alts.

So to me that'd mean as your BTC stash is going up, it'd be correct to re-balance some percentage of that gain into more XMR stash (i.e. as the XMR is "dying" it's just 'cheap coinz!')... correct?

That may look in the short term like throwing good money after bad, but IF -- as most believe around here -- there's definitely a role for XMR to play in the future, over and above what BTC alone is capable of, then long-term that'd be the most profitable approach, yes?  Or is that too much 'gambling' and not really 'investing' here? LOL

[wpalczynski]

I think if the next bitcoin ascent takes place as many people are expecting all alts will take a massive dump regardless of their technical superiority, the better ones, Monero included IMO, will eventually make really nice gains but I think at the onset of the next BTC bubble it will be a bloodbath for alts.

So to me that'd mean as your BTC stash is going up, it'd be correct to re-balance some percentage of that gain into more XMR stash (i.e. as the XMR is "dying" it's just 'cheap coinz!')... correct?

That may look in the short term like throwing good money after bad, but IF -- as most believe around here -- there's definitely a role for XMR to play in the future, over and above what BTC alone is capable of, then long-term that'd be the most profitable approach, yes?  Or is that too much 'gambling' and not really 'investing' here? LOL

The only question is at what price point. 

[novag]

I believe that now is a very good moment to show his independence from Bitcoin.

If the price goes up, it will prove a feature of this coin and show that Monero can compete with Bitcoin.

[CoinCidental]

Except this: When people see the rise and feel it's time to realise profit - oversold Alts will look tasty... And the best alts will leap up.  Fast...

My thoughts exactly.  And I think when that time finally comes although it might not be anytime soon, Monero will be one of the better performing ones because of its technical attributes.  I mean what else is there?  ETH is a complete farce.

Exactly! 

[Hueristic]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

Greed trumps rational thought with a large portion of humanity, thats why the world is where it is.

[wpalczynski]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

Greed trumps rational thought with a large portion of humanity, thats why the world is where it is.

Yup.  World is in a pretty horrible state all around.

[nioc]

Very unsurprised to see someone giving it a whack ahead of ZCash release. That was pretty predictable - the story has been building to this crescendo. Interesting to see how much follow through there is though with the ZCash futures priced so high ...
Bear trap ??

most alts are getting whacked.  It's not zcash, it's the previously mentioned elephant.  elephant up 5% small animals down 20%, so goes the see saw 

[phoenix rises]

Very unsurprised to see someone giving it a whack ahead of ZCash release. That was pretty predictable - the story has been building to this crescendo. Interesting to see how much follow through there is though with the ZCash futures priced so high ...
Bear trap ??

most alts are getting whacked.  It's not zcash, it's the previously mentioned elephant.  elephant up 5% small animals down 20%, so goes the see saw 

Send in the mice ...

[bitebits]

I am calling a bottom at 8888.

- Just feels like that
- Dip below 0.01 was defended with reasonable volume and bounced back above
- Hammer in daily yesterday (albeit red)
- In accordance with everything I said since the pump started
- Lucky number.

Reasonable strategy is to not play FOMO. It aint goin higher. Buy methodically especially on dips. Stop-loss at 8888 if on margin.

I am not a day trader nor a whale, so to me Monero goes wherever it wants to go or is being steered. However I dare to challenge that we have already seen the bottom:

- In the past Monero has shown to be more firmly connected to the dollar price than the bitcoin price.
- Bitcoin is in a consistent uptrend.
- Price increase is usually quick and over reacting. A price decline usually hurts, badly, over a stretched period of time. That I feel we haven't experienced yet.
- Uncertainty in the market regarding potential privacy competitor Zcash.
- Monero has been around 0,50$ for a long time. A 10x price rise, that actually holds, would already be quite impressive.

So being bullish I speculate that Monero's current fair value is around 5$. That would mean between 0,007 and 0,008 BTC, if the price of Bitcoin remains stagnant. Which I think it will not. Let's see!

That was quicker than expected I must admit. Now if only I would know how to trade instead of just buy & hold, dammit  .
But since I already own my share that makes me rather stoic I suppose.

[phishead]

Hmm I thought the most recent 'official statement' was that the GUI release was "Imminent" -- doesn't "imminent" mean sooner than two more months?

I mean, c'mon guys let's at least see an 'alpha' release if not actual 'beta' or final version here, amirite?

Just having something at least, that the masses can SEE is basically working -- even if it's not 100% perfect yet?  OR is there serious risk of losing XMR if things in the GUI are not absolutely squeaky clean... isn't this just a layer on the current daemon and CLI wallet?

Frankly I'm a long-term Monero supporter and HODL'er and I've defended the lack of a pretty eye-candy GUI front-end for a long time, but... c'mon again this is startin' to get a little ridiculous, dontcha think? 

How long it's taking to release the official GUI is also one of the only really big things that Monero Haters have in their arsenal to throw out against XMR and I for one would at least like to see THAT taken away from 'em...

Chill man.. enjoy this sensational wave until the GUI drops:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCawU6BE8P8

[logictense]

Hmm I thought the most recent 'official statement' was that the GUI release was "Imminent" -- doesn't "imminent" mean sooner than two more months?

I mean, c'mon guys let's at least see an 'alpha' release if not actual 'beta' or final version here, amirite?

Just having something at least, that the masses can SEE is basically working -- even if it's not 100% perfect yet?  OR is there serious risk of losing XMR if things in the GUI are not absolutely squeaky clean... isn't this just a layer on the current daemon and CLI wallet?

Frankly I'm a long-term Monero supporter and HODL'er and I've defended the lack of a pretty eye-candy GUI front-end for a long time, but... c'mon again this is startin' to get a little ridiculous, dontcha think? 

How long it's taking to release the official GUI is also one of the only really big things that Monero Haters have in their arsenal to throw out against XMR and I for one would at least like to see THAT taken away from 'em...

The stupidest comment Ive read in a long time. Head over to fucking github page and build it for urself, u sly dog... Who the fuck are u blaming for not delivering the dumbproof thingy to ur doorstep lolol, u sore ass.

Am experiencing no bugs whatsoever with the GUI... Received - sent, works smooth as butter on integrated graphics... No glitches no shimmering lol

Go build the stuff for urself if u wanna use it. Maybe u'll learn something eventually.

[bobabouey2]

Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

An interesting thing about Zcash is that it may be the most hyped alt that is also being launched without any ICO or premine.  It also plans on "slow-start mining":  the amount of ZEC each time a block is mined will start at zero and gradually ramp up to 12.5 ZEC after 34 days.  

So even at the B0.25 per ZEC / $660 BTC / $165 ZEC, the initial market caps will be low.  Around $17k on the first day, ramping to $10m by the end of slow mining.  Then, after a year it would get to $207m (3,600 ZEC per day).

So the irrational exhuberance in the early days could be offset [edit] exacerbated by headline numbers saying the market cap is still tiny.  And, the slow emission / no ICO or pre-mine also means very little liquidity on the markets, which could further drive craziness.

Ironically, their attempt to be "fair" by avoiding pre-mine or ICO may lead to crazy and volatile early prices, and it may take time before the market cap is perceived to be egregious by people who just look at top line numbers.

Here is the quick analysis I put together.  I just used a daily increase on block reward to reach the 12.5 on day 34, they may be using a more gradual curve.

[Hueristic]

Definite suppression and accumulation going on.

[ArticMine]

...
An interesting thing about Zcash is that it may be the most hyped alt that is also being launched without any ICO or premine.  It also plans on "slow-start mining":  the amount of ZEC each time a block is mined will start at zero and gradually ramp up to 12.5 ZEC after 34 days.  

So even at the B0.25 per ZEC / $660 BTC / $165 ZEC, the initial market caps will be low.  Around $17k on the first day, ramping to $10m by the end of slow mining.  Then, after a year it would get to $207m (3,600 ZEC per day).

So the irrational exhuberance in the early days could be offset by headline numbers saying the market cap is still tiny.  And, the slow emission / no ICO or pre-mine also means very little liquidity on the markets, which could further drive craziness.

Ironically, their attempt to be "fair" by avoiding pre-mine or ICO may lead to crazy and volatile early prices, and it may take time before the market cap is perceived to be egregious by people who just look at top line numbers.

Here is the quick analysis I put together.  I just used a daily increase on block reward to reach the 12.5 on day 34, they may be using a more gradual curve.
...

This is excellent analysis. The market has to balance the valuation of the crypto - currency as a whole, market cap, vs the valuation of each individual token, price  in the presence of a limited and highly predictable hyper inflation during the first year. A very likely result will be an initial short lived bull market, price close to parity with Bitcoin is actually possible, followed by a brutal bear market with a loss in the 95% or higher over the subsequent 6 - 9 months. It could take several years for the price to reach the initial bull market price if at all. Here are some prior examples

1) Monero. Initial high 0.01111 XBT, Subsequent low 0.00091 XBT. Initial fall in value of the individual token over 91% in terms of XBT, higher in terms of USD, EUR etc. Monero only exceeded its 2014 per token peak over 2 years later. The market cap when the initial peak was exceeded was 10x and soon went over 20x the market cap of the 2014 peak.  

2) Dogecoin. The 2014 peak was around 0.00000300 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00000019 XBT Loss for each individual token over 93%. Dogecoin has not seen 0.00000300 XBT since.

3) Dash. Now in this case the phenomenon was mitigated by the instamine; however in spite of the instamine the effect was still present. The 2014 peak was around 0.02740 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00215 XBT. Loss for each individual token over 92% in terms of XBT

So my take with Zcash is wait about 6-9 moths and then see.

[smoothie]

...
An interesting thing about Zcash is that it may be the most hyped alt that is also being launched without any ICO or premine.  It also plans on "slow-start mining":  the amount of ZEC each time a block is mined will start at zero and gradually ramp up to 12.5 ZEC after 34 days.  

So even at the B0.25 per ZEC / $660 BTC / $165 ZEC, the initial market caps will be low.  Around $17k on the first day, ramping to $10m by the end of slow mining.  Then, after a year it would get to $207m (3,600 ZEC per day).

So the irrational exhuberance in the early days could be offset by headline numbers saying the market cap is still tiny.  And, the slow emission / no ICO or pre-mine also means very little liquidity on the markets, which could further drive craziness.

Ironically, their attempt to be "fair" by avoiding pre-mine or ICO may lead to crazy and volatile early prices, and it may take time before the market cap is perceived to be egregious by people who just look at top line numbers.

Here is the quick analysis I put together.  I just used a daily increase on block reward to reach the 12.5 on day 34, they may be using a more gradual curve.
...

This is excellent analysis. The market has to balance the valuation of the crypto - currency as a whole, market cap, vs the valuation of each individual token, price  in the presence of a limited and highly predictable hyper inflation during the first year. A very likely result will be an initial short lived bull market, price close to parity with Bitcoin is actually possible, followed by a brutal bear market with a loss in the 95% or higher over the subsequent 6 - 9 months. It could take several years for the price to reach the initial bull market price if at all. Here are some prior examples

1) Monero. Initial high 0.01111 XBT, Subsequent low 0.00091 XBT. Initial fall in value of the individual token over 91% in terms of XBT, higher in terms of USD, EUR etc. Monero only exceeded its 2014 per token peak over 2 years later. The market cap when the initial peak was exceeded was 10x and soon went over 20x the market cap of the 2014 peak.  

2) Dogecoin. The 2014 peak was around 0.00000300 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00000019 XBT Loss for each individual token over 93%. Dogecoin has not seen 0.00000300 XBT since.

3) Dash. Now in this case the phenomenon was mitigated by the instamine; however in spite of the instamine the effect was still present. The 2014 peak was around 0.02740 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00215 XBT. Loss for each individual token over 92% in terms of XBT

So my take with Zcash is wait about 6-9 moths and then see.

Your 3 examples are examples when Bitcoin was in a bear market.

If bitcoin is in a bull market, the timeframes can possibly adjusted out and may not even apply here.

Time will tell.

[KeyJockey]

The stupidest comment Ive read in a long time. Head over to fucking github page and build it for urself, u sly dog... Who the fuck are u blaming for not delivering the dumbproof thingy to ur doorstep lolol, u sore ass.

Geez man... lighten up, LOL

I was not "blaming" it was more "just sayin'..."

U gotta admit it HAS been a long time coming and I HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE about the delay in the past... but, ya know, comes a time when enough is enough.

OK anyway whatever... not affecting ME personally as in ANY case come thick or thin I intend to just HODL.

But, geez, some people around here srsly need to lighten up, Francis... LOL

[KeyJockey]

Do you have to be so fucking rude?

Less of the sanctimonious twattery please.

Yeah... what he said.  LOL

Thanks man

[mnemonicsoup]

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?