[XMR] Monero Speculation

[goin2mars.]

Nobody ever shorts xrm

[aminorex]

BTC is getting truly awful lately - mempool backlogs and fees, yo. Some bad BTC press could knock it about quite easily, and that would mean some correlated volatility in XMR, so another visit to the 017s is still quite possible (and so I am hoping, as I am still a bit low on XMR after the last two spikes drained my trading stock).  Market making should be fairly good business here.  

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Off-topic, yes, but a good read about persistent pathologies in macro:  
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2017/05/30/the-real-signs-that-matter/
Never lose the big picture - even if it is as warped as a house of mirrors on an acid trip.

[aminorex]

Nobody ever shorts xrm

At least not for long.  But there sure are a lot of folks who underweight it.

[noobtrader]

Nobody ever shorts xrm

At least not for long.  But there sure are a lot of folks who underweight it.

I have to remind you all, that i didnt underweight  it

lot of scammer are making money on this "NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT"   those money are being cleansed atm and soon those profit will flow back into XMR...

so....
congrats  guys... XMR will  beat DASH MK soon... its all that matter rihg guys ?

[sp_skeptic]

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Do you really know what USDT is about?

From the Tether terms of service:

There is no contractual right or other right or legal claim against us to redeem or exchange your Tethers for money. We do not guarantee any right of redemption or exchange of Tethers by us for money. There is no guarantee against losses when you buy, trade, sell, or redeem Tethers. - tether.to/legal

Tether: not even a scam https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1881199.0

20,000,000 tether tokens were created today https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1936774.0

Nevertheless Tether is listed at $1.03 on coinmarketcap.com this morning after dipping to .93 a few weeks ago. I don't get it. Tethers are extremely dangerous to hold, IMO.

[aminorex]

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Do you really know what USDT is about?

...I don't get it. Tethers are extremely dangerous to hold, IMO.

Yes, they are effectively non-recourse.  So is BTC.  They are as good or bad as the tether market makes them, and it does make them pretty much on par with USD.  The low was due to a lack of confidence in bitfinex, which is a related party to the tether corp, but I personally think that confidence plunge was by an erroneous analogy to mtgox history, when bfx lost its usd banking relationship with WFC. I think the rebound was pretty predictable, therefore.  Of course tethers should be created whenever they trade above dollars.  Doing otherwise would be proof of incompetence.  Tether supply should be just as unlimited as dollar supply.  Heck, tether corp is practically acting as an instrument of fed policy.

Folks seem to worship BTC a bit much.  It's only as good as it's technology, and it's technology is simply failing.  Failing graduallly, yes, but I have yet to learn of an adequate plan actually being implemented to decisively avert persistent existenstial threats due to scaling problems.  Failing also by being persistently traceable, linkable, for which, again, I know of no adequate plan actually being implemented.

Liquidity is king, this I do understand.  It is tragicomic that ETH, the centralized app coin with tarpit-complete scripting and an attack surface so baroque it would make Rubens blush, is rapidly becoming more reliably and promptly liquid than BTC.  To me this proves that there is a vacuum at the top, and a crying need for XMR to fill it.  Folks talk about how XMR really belongs in the #3 slot, but on fundamentals I find it hard not to conclude that #1 is very much up for grabs. Monero is much more akin to digital gold than either BTC or ETH. It actually does the job that BTC and ETH both fail to do.

But, there I go again.  Always early to every war.  So un-American of me.

I do wish we lived in a world where people cared more about truth and less about group-think, hype, thoughtless habit, and sucking up to the alpha dog.  For one thing, rational actor models would work so much better!

[KeyJockey]

BTC is getting truly awful lately - mempool backlogs and fees, yo.

Oh, man... tell me about it!

I had a transaction from May 23rd that did not get a first confirmation until just yesterday... A WEEK!!!

Granted, it was a "clean up dust" type transaction from one wallet to another of my own wallets and I deliberately put a "low" miner fee on it (only $1.50? HA!) because I was not in a hurry: I figured 5-10 hours maybe it'd come thru, no problem.

But still... a fucking WEEK?

And also I thought that if a transaction didn't confirm in something like 72 hours it was supposed to 'time out' and drop out of the mempool so you'd see it back in the sending wallet, and could try again with a higher fee.  That *started* to happen apparently, once, when the transaction was visible on some block explorers but not others (weird WTF) but apparently THEN some node somewhere decided all on it's own to re-broadcast my transaction again...?

So the clock started over again and WTF I had to just wait and wait with the money in limbo, for a fucking WEEK??

Imagine if this was actually an important transaction and somebody got caught up in this with serious money?  Bitcoin would be a sad JOKE to them, in that case...

Never lose the big picture - even if it is as warped as a house of mirrors on an acid trip.

"I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."
-Hunter S. Thompson

 

P.S. Or oh, hey! Never mind!  On the other hand as long as you send a transaction (like I just did now a few minutes ago) with your wallet's "dynamic fee" recommendation OF FUCKING FIVE DOLLARS!!!  $5!!! FUCK ME, FIVE??  Oh, yeah then sure of course you'll get your first confirm in ten minutes.  Great! Wow that's just what Satoshi intended I guess... nahh not a penny or five cents fee maybe YEAH that's the ticket: Satoshi thought we should all be paying FUCKING FIVE DOLLARS PER TRANSACTION...!!!!!

Un-Fucking-Believeable....

[Hueristic]

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Do you really know what USDT is about?

...I don't get it. Tethers are extremely dangerous to hold, IMO.

Yes, they are effectively non-recourse.  So is BTC.  

I don't think you were very clear on this point. BTC and Tether hold a massively different risk.

They are as good or bad as the tether market makes them, and it does make them pretty much on par with USD.  The low was due to a lack of confidence in bitfinex, which is a related party to the tether corp, but I personally think that confidence plunge was by an erroneous analogy to mtgox history, when bfx lost its usd banking relationship with WFC. I think the rebound was pretty predictable, therefore.  Of course tethers should be created whenever they trade above dollars.  Doing otherwise would be proof of incompetence.  Tether supply should be just as unlimited as dollar supply.  Heck, tether corp is practically acting as an instrument of fed policy.

This is not true at all, tether is supposedly backed by held USD yet there is zero transparency so that is a 100% trusted centralized setup without FED oversight and therefore the epitome of risk.

Folks seem to worship BTC a bit much.  It's only as good as it's technology, and it's technology is simply failing.  Failing graduallly, yes, but I have yet to learn of an adequate plan actually being implemented to decisively avert persistent existenstial threats due to scaling problems.  Failing also by being persistently traceable, linkable, for which, again, I know of no adequate plan actually being implemented.

Absolutely, transaction times and fee's are completely unacceptable on the BTC network right now and it will only get worse but that does not effect it's security although it does effect the confidence level which in turn effects price.

Liquidity is king, this I do understand.  It is tragicomic that ETH, the centralized app coin with tarpit-complete scripting and an attack surface so baroque it would make Rubens blush, is rapidly becoming more reliably and promptly liquid than BTC.  To me this proves that there is a vacuum at the top, and a crying need for XMR to fill it.  Folks talk about how XMR really belongs in the #3 slot, but on fundamentals I find it hard not to conclude that #1 is very much up for grabs. Monero is much more akin to digital gold than either BTC or ETH. It actually does the job that BTC and ETH both fail to do.

So sad and so true, the infrastructure should be mature enough now for monero to step in and fill this gap the only thing holding it back is the simple to use tools for the masses and of course the non-profesionalism of fluffy really put a ding in the faith in the dev team even though he is but one member. Makeing one person the face of this project was a mistake,

But, there I go again.  Always early to every war.  So un-American of me.

I do wish we lived in a world where people cared more about truth and less about group-think, hype, thoughtless habit, and sucking up to the alpha dog.  For one thing, rational actor models would work so much better!

W0rd.



[/quote]

[Nathan047]

BTC is getting truly awful lately - mempool backlogs and fees, yo.

I've been having my own share of issues lately. We really need to get these scaling wars figured out or we're all going to suffer as Bitcoin becomes unusable and loses value.

[comp]

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Do you really know what USDT is about?

...I don't get it. Tethers are extremely dangerous to hold, IMO.

Yes, they are effectively non-recourse.  So is BTC.  They are as good or bad as the tether market makes them, and it does make them pretty much on par with USD.  The low was due to a lack of confidence in bitfinex, which is a related party to the tether corp, but I personally think that confidence plunge was by an erroneous analogy to mtgox history, when bfx lost its usd banking relationship with WFC. I think the rebound was pretty predictable, therefore.  Of course tethers should be created whenever they trade above dollars.  Doing otherwise would be proof of incompetence.  Tether supply should be just as unlimited as dollar supply.  Heck, tether corp is practically acting as an instrument of fed policy.

Folks seem to worship BTC a bit much.  It's only as good as it's technology, and it's technology is simply failing.  Failing graduallly, yes, but I have yet to learn of an adequate plan actually being implemented to decisively avert persistent existenstial threats due to scaling problems.  Failing also by being persistently traceable, linkable, for which, again, I know of no adequate plan actually being implemented.

Liquidity is king, this I do understand.  It is tragicomic that ETH, the centralized app coin with tarpit-complete scripting and an attack surface so baroque it would make Rubens blush, is rapidly becoming more reliably and promptly liquid than BTC.  To me this proves that there is a vacuum at the top, and a crying need for XMR to fill it.  Folks talk about how XMR really belongs in the #3 slot, but on fundamentals I find it hard not to conclude that #1 is very much up for grabs. Monero is much more akin to digital gold than either BTC or ETH. It actually does the job that BTC and ETH both fail to do.

But, there I go again.  Always early to every war.  So un-American of me.

I do wish we lived in a world where people cared more about truth and less about group-think, hype, thoughtless habit, and sucking up to the alpha dog.  For one thing, rational actor models would work so much better!

It's the rational actor model in full swing following the alpha dog. At least if it's your aim to make (fast) profits. Most people know the game they play and they really do not care about the underlying value of something. It's just grabbings those $$ and run behind the herd and try to get out before the herd gets out. IMHO that is rational. I do not see a lot of emotionally attached people (to the bitcoin). I guess they know it's fucked in the long term. But everybody just keeps dancing until the music stops.

Can you point out the value of Monero. I invested in Monero, but more from my gut feeling than anything else.

[sp_skeptic]

Monero withdrawals are "temporarily disabled" on Poloniex. No explanation.

[nnx3]

Monero withdrawals are "temporarily disabled" on Poloniex. No explanation.

its normal Siacoin too, many coin are disabled and enabled, in POLO works best porfessionall people

[Febo]

Monero withdrawals are "temporarily disabled" on Poloniex. No explanation.

its normal Siacoin too, many coin are disabled and enabled, in POLO works best porfessionall people

Seems like 9 coins right now on Poloniex. But I dont recall when Monero withdrawals and deposits were disabled the last time.


In general this is good for a pump    But i doubt deposits will be disabled for long.

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero withdrawals are "temporarily disabled" on Poloniex. No explanation.

A trollbox said the following a few hours ago:

Mirai: XMR wallet is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back as soon as the team is done. Thank you for your understanding.

[bitebits]

Monero withdrawals are "temporarily disabled" on Poloniex. No explanation.

A trollbox said the following a few hours ago:

Mirai: XMR wallet is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back as soon as the team is done. Thank you for your understanding.

Thanks dEBRUYNE. And as long as exchanges have trollboxes and are a source of information, you know it is still early days. Good, I will likely be nostalgic about it in a few more years time.

[ArticMine]

I could wish the USDT market was bigger, as I would rather avoid holding BTC during this period of relative BTC weakness and volatility.  Alas, the turnover is just too low there to usefully trade the vol by hand.  (Also, once my XMR levels are back, I need to book in BTC to fund my constantly losing NQ bear spreads, so USDT is just one more layer of conversion friction.)

Do you really know what USDT is about?

...I don't get it. Tethers are extremely dangerous to hold, IMO.

Yes, they are effectively non-recourse.  So is BTC.  They are as good or bad as the tether market makes them, and it does make them pretty much on par with USD.  The low was due to a lack of confidence in bitfinex, which is a related party to the tether corp, but I personally think that confidence plunge was by an erroneous analogy to mtgox history, when bfx lost its usd banking relationship with WFC. I think the rebound was pretty predictable, therefore.  Of course tethers should be created whenever they trade above dollars.  Doing otherwise would be proof of incompetence.  Tether supply should be just as unlimited as dollar supply.  Heck, tether corp is practically acting as an instrument of fed policy.

Folks seem to worship BTC a bit much.  It's only as good as it's technology, and it's technology is simply failing.  Failing graduallly, yes, but I have yet to learn of an adequate plan actually being implemented to decisively avert persistent existenstial threats due to scaling problems.  Failing also by being persistently traceable, linkable, for which, again, I know of no adequate plan actually being implemented.

Liquidity is king, this I do understand.  It is tragicomic that ETH, the centralized app coin with tarpit-complete scripting and an attack surface so baroque it would make Rubens blush, is rapidly becoming more reliably and promptly liquid than BTC.  To me this proves that there is a vacuum at the top, and a crying need for XMR to fill it.  Folks talk about how XMR really belongs in the #3 slot, but on fundamentals I find it hard not to conclude that #1 is very much up for grabs. Monero is much more akin to digital gold than either BTC or ETH. It actually does the job that BTC and ETH both fail to do.

But, there I go again.  Always early to every war.  So un-American of me.

I do wish we lived in a world where people cared more about truth and less about group-think, hype, thoughtless habit, and sucking up to the alpha dog.  For one thing, rational actor models would work so much better!

It's the rational actor model in full swing following the alpha dog. At least if it's your aim to make (fast) profits. Most people know the game they play and they really do not care about the underlying value of something. It's just grabbings those $$ and run behind the herd and try to get out before the herd gets out. IMHO that is rational. I do not see a lot of emotionally attached people (to the bitcoin). I guess they know it's fucked in the long term. But everybody just keeps dancing until the music stops.

Can you point out the value of Monero. I invested in Monero, but more from my gut feeling than anything else.

I agree with Hueristic with respect to Tether. It is a basically a promise to pay USD without any of the safeguards in the regulated banking system. So one literally gets the worst of both worlds. If you want to hold USD then hold USD cash or a bank deposit up to the 250,000 USD FDIC maximum. If the deposit is uninsured then one better trust the financial institution holding the deposit. The same would apply to other fiat currencies, CAD, EUR, GBP etc.

There is a reason why ETH has been pumped so high. It does not have the blocksize issue that XBT has. The trouble is that ETH was not designed for use as a currency. It is a platform for smart contracts and that by its very nature produces a very significant attack surface. The analogy here is that if one's car does not work one can use an 18 wheeler truck trailer combination or maybe an Australian road train https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_train instead, but really what one needs is a car that works. It is here where XMR comes in. It is "the car that works". This is for two reasons:
1) It has an adaptive blocksize limit with a minimum emission of 0.6 XMR. This means there is no need to restrict the blocksize in order to ensure the long term security of the blockchain as is the case with XBT, LTC, DASH etc.
2) It has built in fungiblity, privacy and anonymity. This means it can operate as cash.

[Febo]

I found this here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/6ei9ja/monero_progress_in_1_year_thank_you_all/

Remember, development will always seem too slow and like nothing is going on to those who want to earn quick buck, but we're getting there! Just consider what we DIDN'T have just 1 year ago:
no StackExchange site
no GUI, duh
no RCT
no cool community-created sites like https://www.monero.how/
no nice videos like 1 2 3
no fiat exchanges (now Kraken, Bitfinex)
no mobile wallet (just around the corner now)
no fluffy-blocks (testing ongoing)
no sub-addresses (ready for testing now)
no LMDB for TXpool (coming in next release, fresh from the forge), I just found out about this and am excited that we won't depend on RAM for anything, if understood correctly
no Kovri (coming soontm in alpha)
no website re-design
no many new contributors (https://www.openhub.net/p/monero/contributors?sort=newest)
... did I forget something?
PS here are some moer openhub stats: https://www.openhub.net/p/monero/factoids#FactoidTeamSizeVeryLarge

[Billy Bunter]

I found this here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/6ei9ja/monero_progress_in_1_year_thank_you_all/

Remember, development will always seem too slow and like nothing is going on to those who want to earn quick buck, but we're getting there! Just consider what we DIDN'T have just 1 year ago:
no StackExchange site
no GUI, duh
no RCT
no cool community-created sites like https://www.monero.how/
no nice videos like 1 2 3
no fiat exchanges (now Kraken, Bitfinex)
no mobile wallet (just around the corner now)
no fluffy-blocks (testing ongoing)
no sub-addresses (ready for testing now)
no LMDB for TXpool (coming in next release, fresh from the forge), I just found out about this and am excited that we won't depend on RAM for anything, if understood correctly
no Kovri (coming soontm in alpha)
no website re-design
no many new contributors (https://www.openhub.net/p/monero/contributors?sort=newest)
... did I forget something?
PS here are some moer openhub stats: https://www.openhub.net/p/monero/factoids#FactoidTeamSizeVeryLarge

Great post, Febo.

When one follows Monero day to day, it's easy to forget the great strides that have been taken this last year.

[sp_skeptic]

I agree with Hueristic with respect to Tether. It is a basically a promise to pay USD without any of the safeguards in the regulated banking system. So one literally gets the worst of both worlds. If you want to hold USD then hold USD cash or a bank deposit up to the 250,000 USD FDIC maximum. If the deposit is uninsured then one better trust the financial institution holding the deposit. The same would apply to other fiat currencies, CAD, EUR, GBP etc.

I have something of a bee in my bonnet about this, and it's getting a little off topic, but one more comment and I'll shut up.

A promise to pay USD is specifically and explicitly what Tether is _not_, per the terms of service.

Safeguards? Safeguards are to make sure companies can and do keep their promises. Tether doesn't make any. Yes, unless you read the TOS you might get the impression from their site that Tethers are backed by money in the bank, and that you have the right to redeem Tethers, but the TOS say no right to redeem and helpfully resolve the conflict by specifying that if the site says one thing and the TOS another, the TOS wins. I don't know what the talk about Tether's reserves and whether they are actually are what Tether says they are has to do with anything - what does it matter if Tether holders have no legal claim on them?

I don't think many realize how all-encompassing Tether's disclaimers in their terms of service (https://tether.to/legal) really are, e.g. you specifically cannot sue them for unjust enrichment. Why would that be in there? Any ideas?

[aminorex]

you specifically cannot sue them for unjust enrichment. Why would that be in there? Any ideas?

So that they can unjustly enrich themselves at your expense without an excessive fear of civil penalties.  I am frankly surprised that I haven't heard of any actual scammer deaths by mob vigilantism, in crypto, lo these many years.  Wassup with that?  

I think it is pretty annoying that they would imply one thing but rely upon its opposite, yeah, but as long as it is fit for purpose I will use it as necessary.

However, it isn't actually necessary.  Elsewhere it was drawn to my attention that bitfinex xmrusd is actually doing a good tick these days.