[XMR] Monero Speculation

[doc12]

The Price is sitting right at the support line, which is ascending since one year. If we dont bounce off now, we are fucked.  On the other side, this could be a big buy opportunity.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

For those who think we should be advising people to invest: are you freaking kidding me? Two disastrous exploits have been discovered in the past 12 months. The former was part of the RingCT implementation and was thankfully fixed before getting into the wild. The latter (the Curve25519 small subgroup attack) was live in Monero's codebase for nearly three years. This project isn't anywhere close to "battle hardened" or ready to depend on with your life. Be responsible.

Investing in crypto is a dangerous game, and I will not be advising others to do so anytime soon, regardless of my personal successes or failures.

Smooth is simply saying "don't try this at home kids, unless you know what you're doing." What's wrong with that?

[Globb0]

They are just asking to tone down the jokey, yeah sure XMR is a scam coin type stuff.

[virasog]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

[Billy Bunter]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

What are you talking about?

[Billy Bunter]

You know, I can't ever recall Smooth giving an out-and-out speculative opinion on Monero in this thread. I would be very interested in what he had to say.

I think smooth just gave a hint of his real background last page, also I do remember one time, he sold when Monero hit 0.01 first way back in mintpal and said so many times when bulls were dying of hunger in the winter of '15, I doubt he bought until it was low enough while he helped improve Monero.

I bought back during the BCX scare (and have said so here) later in 2014, which I correctly called as being a bunch of pure BS (though the price continued to decline even once it was apparent to all there was no exploit, in hindsight the result more of a brutal, and long, crypto bear market than anything specific to Monero). My reentry was well below 0.01 but also well above the subsequent lows.

rangedriver is right, if fluffypony can say not buy monero others are free to say otherwise.

Agree on that.

Any opinion on where we're headed over the next few months?

Well, in the absence of any response from Smooth, I'll take a shot.

On the plus side. Once the Bitcoin shitshow has concluded, I suspect we'll quickly see new highs for BTC. If Monero can maintain its price relative to BTC, we should see a nice rise for XMR.

Moreover, the coming HF, Multisig, Wallets, and slow tightening of emission, should all result in a good deal of sweetness and light for Monero. The major criticisms of Monero will have been nullified and further adoption looks likely.

On the minus side, the crypto market is clearly irrational. Indeed, it's better described as anti-rational. So the market is just as likely to shrug its collective shoulders, give Monero a pass, and move on to the next token.

Lastly, Monero has rarely failed to disappoint me when I least expected it, and surprised me at other times. The next few months will likely be no different.

In summary, it's a crap shoot.

[Peao]

Monero $ 100 that I want to see. supposed to attack now. is there any new news? developed a new project.?

[nioc]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

What are you talking about?

You know the answer.   Maybe he can go over to btc speculation and post something like ....

i think invest in bitcoin is much more safe and profitable because bitcoin price rising to higher value and we do not face to any risk when we invest our money in bitcoin and i if we invest our money in bitcoin we will be get a good profit from bitcoin in the future so i think bitcoin is much more profitable currency than altcoins.


To the topic at hand; quoting that "unknown amount of Monero" is out of contest because it is also stated that over 11k Moneroj (they give the exact amount) has been moved to a government Monero address.  Ofc with this being Monero there is no way for us to actually determine this 

Don't just buy Monero; use it!

[nioc]

It seems that AB had 1 wallet which has a known amount plus an admin had a personal wallet that was encrypted and has an unknown amount on it.  There are details out there is anybody wants to wade through them. 

[tokeweed]

Any predictions on who will reach $100 first between XMR and LTC?

This would actually make a good propbet.  So anyone here wanna make a bet on which one makes 100 USD first?  Monero or Litecoin?  Bet is 1 XMR and the bet is open until July 21, 2018.  That's one year. 

I choose XMR.  Any takers?

Well I don't think this is 50/50 bet. LTC needs 2.8 billion more in market cap for $100 and XMR need 800 million. Sure you can argue that LTC has more mc now and new investors might just go for #4 coin instead of #9, but i feel XMR is starting to get momentum now. Since this is a guessing game I think it's 75/25 bet in XMR favor.

That's a good point.  Let's make the bet for fun and adjust the odds a bit then.  Since you said it's gonna be 75/25 in XMR's favor (around three to one), then let's go for my 1 XMR will win .3 XMR if it reaches 100 USD first.

What do you say?

[e-coinomist]

One of these things is not like the others..

839,000.0 BTC during one and a half year, of some 16 millions total supply. For the biggest market. Let us assume topmost 2nd and 3rd sum up onto a similar amount together.
Below 10% of Bitcoin supply get used for drug trafficing, mostly harmless stuff like weed that more and more gets legalized anyway (as soon as the last 1968er has died, probably).

Monero partially targets that market segment. Did you guessed it's so tiny?

[e-coinomist]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

Then killed himself inside his prison cell, leaving behind a wife without money (sized!) and a young child, and about three now ownerless high end cars.

[doc12]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

Then killed himself inside his prison cell, leaving behind a wife without money (sized!) and a young child, and about three now ownerless high end cars.

Poor cars   someway to help them?

[Febo]

839,000.0 BTC during one and a half year, of some 16 millions total supply. For the biggest market. Let us assume topmost 2nd and 3rd sum up onto a similar amount together.
Below 10% of Bitcoin supply get used for drug trafficing, mostly harmless stuff like weed that more and more gets legalized anyway (as soon as the last 1968er has died, probably).

Monero partially targets that market segment. Did you guessed it's so tiny?

I and probably most were curious about this numbers. And yes they seems small. If you look at trading volumes of coins or different ICOs and crowdfundings.  But you need to understand that is real economy. Is not just shuffling numbers from one wallet to the other, but producing and sending stuff that is mostly illegal.

[Billy Bunter]

839,000.0 BTC during one and a half year, of some 16 millions total supply. For the biggest market. Let us assume topmost 2nd and 3rd sum up onto a similar amount together.
Below 10% of Bitcoin supply get used for drug trafficing, mostly harmless stuff like weed that more and more gets legalized anyway (as soon as the last 1968er has died, probably).

Monero partially targets that market segment. Did you guessed it's so tiny?

I and probably most were curious about this numbers. And yes they seems small. If you look at trading volumes of coins or different ICOs and crowdfundings.  But you need to understand that is real economy. Is not just shuffling numbers from one wallet to the other, but producing and sending stuff that is mostly illegal.

I was actually quite surprised at how big those numbers were. I'm inclined to agree more and more with aminorex that the DNM is going to be the most important market for Monero - at least in the early stages.

Any future DNM's are going to have to make Monero compulsory if they want to be taken seriously.

[johnsmithx]

It's been a pretty even Road for XMR. There's not much that you're going to be able to do or speculate on it this point. I looks like this coin is  old and trusted. Somebody just pumped it for some reason. They like to do that for profit they like to do that for activity on their chain and then like to do that create movement on their particular coin so let's just see what comes next.

Then killed himself inside his prison cell, leaving behind a wife without money (sized!) and a young child, and about three now ownerless high end cars.

Poor cars  someway to help them?

Weren't they "sized" as well?

[c789]

Adding on to the "and an unknown amount of Monero" discussion:

Federal agents obtained the warrants after tracing a number of Bitcoin transactions originating with AlphaBay to digital currency accounts, and ultimately bank accounts and other tangible assets, held by CAZES and his wife.

Forfeiture Complaint, p. 17 (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3898109/AlphaBay-Cazes-Forfeiture-Complaint.pdf)

So there we have it. Blockchain analysis was a part of the AB takedown. It makes absolutely no sense to use anything but Monero if you want a private transaction. Every other coin is either on a public ledger and can be traced, or it has serious security concerns.  Comparison of Privacy-Centric Cryptocurrencies

[guesswho1234]

any ideas about whats going to happen with xmr? why is the volume so low?

imo its highly undervalued

[wekael]

yea, this coin looks like a sleeping beast

[e-coinomist]

Adding on to the "and an unknown amount of Monero" discussion:

Federal agents obtained the warrants after tracing a number of Bitcoin transactions originating with AlphaBay to digital currency accounts, and ultimately bank accounts and other tangible assets, held by CAZES and his wife.

Forfeiture Complaint, p. 17 (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3898109/AlphaBay-Cazes-Forfeiture-Complaint.pdf)

So there we have it. Blockchain analysis was a part of the AB takedown. It makes absolutely no sense to use anything but Monero if you want a private transaction. Every other coin is either on a public ledger and can be traced, or it has serious security concerns.  Comparison of Privacy-Centric Cryptocurrencies

Cazes reused program code from his officially owned company and the Alphabay webpage. Programers kinda feature a fingerprint regarding their styles.
Ross got caught the same way, by asking questions about programing difficulties on stackoverflow.com using his real email address.

If Blockchain analysis catches them all then tell me why are other markets still up?