[XMR] Monero Speculation

[sui_generis]

If Blockchain analysis catches them all then tell me why are other markets still up?

Hansa was thought to be fine after AB went down, but it actually wasn't, it was being run by law enforcement. In other words, a market being up does not imply that it hasn't been compromised.

Blockchain analysis wasn't the thing that caught them, but it will be what convicts them.

[c789]

If Blockchain analysis catches them all then tell me why are other markets still up?

As the previous poster noted, just because a market is up doesn't mean it's not compromised. There would be little to no way of knowing if a market is compromised until authorities make their move publicly.

I've made posts in the past which showed this risk. Here are the links I used:

https://news.bitcoin.com/law-enforcement-continues-invest-bitcoin-tracking-services/

http://time.com/3689359/bitcoins-track-anonymous/

https://www.elliptic.co/law-enforcement/

Keep in mind those are relatively old links. What we do know now is that blockchain analysis is successfully being used to track these people (and anyone else). Its findings are part of the puzzle that authorities use to build their case. Blockchain analysis and tracking is reality now, as proven by the fed's document.

I don't advocate illegal use of anything, but I want a private coin because the government may decide that the charitable contribution that I made went to the "wrong" political party or org, or they may decide that I'm using too much electricity, etc. Those examples have already happened...not with me, but with others.

The big point I'm making is that we need a private currency and we have it: Monero. Anything else can be tracked or has serious security concerns.

[ArticMine]

...
Hansa was thought to be fine after AB went down, but it actually wasn't, it was being run by law enforcement. In other words, a market being up does not imply that it hasn't been compromised.

Blockchain analysis wasn't the thing that caught them, but it will be what convicts them.

I doubt blockchain analysis will be of much use in convictions. For starters the false positive rate is simply very high, producing at best circumstantial evidence. It is at this point where the true strength of Monero; however comes into play. It protects the innocent from false accusations by proprietary algorithms owned by for profit companies. If the arrested criminal has used Bitcoin before his arrest to purchase perfectly legal goods and / or services from legitimate and law abiding vendors those vendors could easily be falsely accused.

I am currently sitting at a coffee shop and paid for my coffee and a sandwich with a 20 CAD bill. Do I need to concern myself that particular 20 CAD bill could have been used for some illegal activity say 20 transactions back? Should the coffee shop have a similar concern? It is called fungibility.

[kwukduck]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

[elrippos friend]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

That's what everybody said about BTC few years ago, now it is accepted as an official currency in JP 

Governements and politics also need anonymity, for what ever reason, for their being, so there is a lot of potential here 

[DaveyJones]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

you realise that especially banksters and politicians needs sth to hide their money from prying eyes?

[e-coinomist]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

That's what everybody said about BTC few years ago, now it is accepted as an official currency in JP 

Governements and politics also need anonymity, for what ever reason, for their being, so there is a lot of potential here 

As seen from the Cazes case, below <10% of BTC's got used on trading weed, which seems to be lesser lethal than state controlled/owned ethanol trade just from number of death casualities. But conservatism got that habbit of continueing on their wrongdoings.

Govermentals and notorious politicians usually prefere printed cash, so there's no need to migrate over onto electronically surveillanced alternatives.

[aminorex]

I'm sure he knows that. It was an opinion, not a prohibition. We're all just talking here.

The shorter period of time they have held the more they moan about how their bag hasn't made them rich yet. Let the ICO crowd mentality run back to the scam crowd and yell moon all day. The sooner they learn that this project is real and not some get rich quick scheme the better for all involved.

Do you the price under performing is due to the ICO mania?

That is one factor.  The others are bear raids by real professionals (not cryptowhales), alphabay, and the fork drama.  Oh, and vitalik stole another 80mm usd.

[aminorex]

...
Hansa was thought to be fine after AB went down, but it actually wasn't, it was being run by law enforcement. In other words, a market being up does not imply that it hasn't been compromised.

Blockchain analysis wasn't the thing that caught them, but it will be what convicts them.

I doubt blockchain analysis will be of much use in convictions. For starters the false positive rate is simply very high, producing at best circumstantial evidence. It is at this point where the true strength of Monero; however comes into play. It protects the innocent from false accusations by proprietary algorithms owned by for profit companies. If the arrested criminal has used Bitcoin before his arrest to purchase perfectly legal goods and / or services from legitimate and law abiding vendors those vendors could easily be falsely accused.

I am currently sitting at a coffee shop and paid for my coffee and a sandwich with a 20 CAD bill. Do I need to concern myself that particular 20 CAD bill could have been used for some illegal activity say 20 transactions back? Should the coffee shop have a similar concern? It is called fungibility.

Blockchain analysis using bayesian methods and markov chain Monte Carlo can easily surpass the "reasonable doubt" bar.  Not always, but as sufficient data is accumulated.

[aminorex]

For those who think we should be advising people to invest: are you freaking kidding me? Two disastrous exploits have been discovered in the past 12 months. The former was part of the RingCT implementation and was thankfully fixed before getting into the wild. The latter (the Curve25519 small subgroup attack) was live in Monero's codebase for nearly three years. This project isn't anywhere close to "battle hardened" or ready to depend on with your life. Be responsible.

Investing in crypto is a dangerous game, and I will not be advising others to do so anytime soon, regardless of my personal successes or failures.

Smooth is simply saying "don't try this at home kids, unless you know what you're doing." What's wrong with that?

It is the optionality on an asymmetric outcome, along with anticorrelation to legacy assets, which makes xmr an essential component of any diversified portfolio.  

For punters, it is a great bet, for the same reason: asymmetric return profile.  High risk yes, but the higher reward potential more than makes up for that (an understatement).  Moreover the risks are overblown: the skill which the core team and contributors have exhibited in managing the threats has increased my cofidence rather than decreased it.

Investments and bets mean different things to different people.  If you need what xmr offers then you should buy it.  If you do not, you should not.

[tokeweed]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

Sure, but that won't matter if there's a demand in the market for Monero.  If you're a greedy investor the 'ban' will be a good thing especially if demand remains high despite that ban. 

[elrippos friend]

This is exactly why Monero will be banned in every single country. Banksters and governments will never allow us such freedom.
As great as monero technically is, it's doomed to fail because of our social and political environment.

That's what everybody said about BTC few years ago, now it is accepted as an official currency in JP 

Governements and politics also need anonymity, for what ever reason, for their being, so there is a lot of potential here 

As seen from the Cazes case, below <10% of BTC's got used on trading weed, which seems to be lesser lethal than state controlled/owned ethanol trade just from number of death casualities. But conservatism got that habbit of continueing on their wrongdoings.

Govermentals and notorious politicians usually prefere printed cash, so there's no need to migrate over onto electronically surveillanced alternatives.

Exactly, but the obscuring of the cash is a lot easier if you convert it to an anonymous type of storage no one can trace 

it is also stated that over 11k Moneroj (they give the exact amount) has been moved to a government Monero address. 

I plan to bid on that 11k when the auction comes up.

Well, this will be good for the price, since in the past there where made anouncments in advance the price did raise and shortly after that fell again 

[goin2mars.]

If Blockchain analysis catches them all then tell me why are other markets still up?

...

I don't advocate illegal use of anything, but I want a private coin because the government may decide that the charitable contribution that I made went to the "wrong" political party or org, or they may decide that I'm using too much electricity, etc. Those examples have already happened...not with me, but with others.

The big point I'm making is that we need a private currency and we have it: Monero. Anything else can be tracked or has serious security concerns.

Or too motile.

[sui_generis]

The risks are way overblown. I encourage everyone I know to invest at least some money in cryptocurrency. Some chose to invest significant sums, and it's worked out well for them. Crypto is penetrating more and more into the mainstream, and I think it will only get crazier from here. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet.

[ArticMine]

...
Blockchain analysis using bayesian methods and markov chain Monte Carlo can easily surpass the "reasonable doubt" bar.  Not always, but as sufficient data is accumulated.

Sure if the evidence is presented in court. This is not what we are talking about here.

We trace Bitcoin transactions across hundreds of entities and help you connect illicit Bitcoin activity to real world actors.
Our proprietary database links millions of Bitcoin addresses to thousands of clear web and dark web entities.  We back this up with transparent documentary evidence.

https://www.elliptic.co/law-enforcement/ Translation: We have a proprietary database, accusing people of serious crimes by association, that we will let law enforcement agencies to take a look at for a fee. Elliptic is very careful to say this is evidence for investigations. They do not mention trails before a court of law.

The likelihood of false positives here is very high. A good example is a criminal who purchases perfectly legal goods and / or services from a law abiding business on a regular basis using Bitcoin. Criminals do actually purchase perfectly legal goods and / or services on a regular basis. Bayesian methods will flag this in no time, since the algorithm has no way of knowing if the transactions are legal or not.  A fact that these blockchain analytics companies conveniently ignore.

Edit: This is guilt by association pure and simple.

[novag]

Monero HUGE PUMP INCOMMING

Everytime monero touches 200MA, it gets a huge pump, i think whales have already been triggered and they are getting in as they see.

Buying time

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/rgJLD1PE-Monero-HUGE-PUMP-INCOMMING

[dEBRUYNE]

Serhack is requesting feedback for his web integrations projects:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/6p720h/monero_web_integrations_document/

[aminorex]

It is happening, people. Read /r/DarkNetMarkets.  With n/m multisig in place, bitcoin will become a barbarous relic, and Monero will be the world currency.

Zooko had best get his wheels turning on Tezos, because Vitalik just stole another 80 millions, and ZEC is history.

The world is about to wake up and smell the coffee that ha been brewing for the past 3 years.

I just do not understand how the mass of  people can be such dense, stiff-necked, blind sheep and yet not get slaughtered...oh, nevermind, that's coming too.

So Hansa market was a honeytrap.  Dream Market maybe too.  There is a huge multibillion dollar gap which DHL can not, will not fill.  Such a vacuum is truly anhorrent.  It will not stand.  I revise my estimates on XMR to 200 in October, 1000 in March, and 5000 before 2019.

[dazbog835]

Everytime monero touches 200MA

What does MA stand for?

[Globb0]

Moving average

I think a kind of sliding window - like 20 day MA


edit

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp