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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3180574 times)
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kurious
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November 02, 2018, 10:20:32 PM
 #39761

There were a little over 12 million coins mined by January 1 2014 compared to 17,300,000 currently. Millions of more people are ready to buy and add to the mix institutional players and we could see new ATH's sooner than we think.

That's 3,700,000 Bitcoins left and it will take many years until most of what are remaining are available.

The market volume, in a market that is more than half Bitcoin is over $12,000,000,000 per DAY - and that is with the market at a low.

Half the market is a hell of a lot of cash swishing around - with only a relatively small number of coins remaining, which aren't even mined yet.  So any new demand must buy existing coins.

The price is not remotely sustainable beyond the short term.   In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

Sooner rather than later, this shit's going to blow.


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November 03, 2018, 01:08:48 AM
 #39762

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.
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November 03, 2018, 09:23:06 AM
 #39763

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?

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November 03, 2018, 11:59:42 AM
 #39764

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?
"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."
LOL
Hey, by your logic, which requires taking Lindy totally literally, then Lindy must imply that nothing would ever survive past the first spark of creation.
But you needn't put any effort into accommodating concepts that don't immediately fit some naive expectations, if you don't so wish.
Taleb is worth reading.
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November 03, 2018, 12:54:54 PM
 #39765

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?
"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."
LOL
Hey, by your logic, which requires taking Lindy totally literally, then Lindy must imply that nothing would ever survive past the first spark of creation.
But you needn't put any effort into accommodating concepts that don't immediately fit some naive expectations, if you don't so wish.
Taleb is worth reading.

Hmm... by your logic, Bitcoin will always be half way through its life.

You might want to read Taleb again, I believe he did suggest factoring in the health of something, too - since as Globbo rightfully says; this simplistic view is logically nonsense.

What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become.  But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.

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November 03, 2018, 02:28:18 PM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #39766

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

I think you have the wrong impression of what Bitcoin/Monero is if you are comparing Taleb’s hypothesis on that.  It’s a decentralized effort on the part of people that makes any crypto currencies successful. Bitcoin is still being tormented by the “politics” of Roger Ver & Co. while at the same time continually ignoring all the reasons why... and Monero is still achieving the feat of being able to fund developers on donations on the whim of whether people feel generous or not.

... I wouldn’t chalk up any real cryptocurrency projects to not have any “human-ness” about them at all.


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Monero
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016

"Don't buy Monero, join our new ICO: 'The Monero Enterprise Alliance"  fluffypony:  May 24th, 2017
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November 03, 2018, 03:22:00 PM
Merited by BldSwtTrs (2)
 #39767


What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become.  But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.

Taleb specifically addresses robustness vs antifragility and they shouldn't be used interchangeably

Robustness is static durability. A concrete wall is more robust than a wooden fence. However, on a long enough timeframe, shocks large enough to destroy both structures are guaranteed and they have no mechanism to adapt, so they will be destroyed. The more robust structure can be expected to last longer. However, small shocks to the system won't improve it's expected duration. Intermittently hitting your concrete wall with a hammer won't improve its life expectancy.

Antifragility is a property of systems that specifically gain from disorder. Antifragile systems must have mechanisms for repair and adaptation. Biological evolution is the example. The culling of unfit individuals from populations by prior shocks to the system actually increases the resilience to unpredictable future stressors. Bone density is another example. Small shocks to your bones through controlled weight lifting will decrease your chances of long bone fractures to larger stressors.

Lindy does not mean bitcoin will only live another 10 years. Nor does it imply a symmetrical relationship (as is being suggested above). The most common example of the Lindy effect is in actuarial life expectancy tables. Your life expectancy is SHORTEST at birth. Every additional year you live, your life expectancy increases. For men in the United States, your life expectancy is 75.4 at birth but increases to 79 at age 50. Saying a male who lives 10 years is expected to live another 10 is a gross misunderstanding of the concept. Lindy simply means the life expectancy grows with time, by some unknown factor. Lindy applies most directly to memes, and has no application to strictly perishable good. Humans are partially perishable, so obviously, the lindy factor is much lower than for art or technology.
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November 03, 2018, 03:30:31 PM
 #39768

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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November 04, 2018, 06:33:46 PM
 #39769

BTC going up and XMR going up with it - as are some of the other alts.

Ok, it could be temporary, but it feels pretty bullish after dips and endless sideways motion....  Is it going to be a pleasant November?

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November 04, 2018, 07:00:28 PM
 #39770

BTC going up and XMR going up with it - as are some of the other alts.

Ok, it could be temporary, but it feels pretty bullish after dips and endless sideways motion....  Is it going to be a pleasant November?

I say YES. Smiley


Could you plz stop hyping yourselves up i want a few more months ok? tyvm Smiley

Seriously it's basically just pure glee at this point coming up with reasons to milk a clock for every spare additional fifteen minutes just so i can buy some fractional amount of monero every two weeks.

Yup, smart. I too have been trying to do the same for the last year.

@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


...shit I lost a big post...too lazy to redo it. Sad






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November 04, 2018, 07:10:36 PM
 #39771

I believe in this coin, and it seems to me that today is a good time to invest in Monero. I am sure that anonymous coins will be very much in demand soon. People want to keep online privacy.
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November 04, 2018, 09:08:52 PM
 #39772


@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


Heh... okay okay yah I disappear for almost a year then come back and can't fucking shut up, huh... LOL

Well it'll happen or it won't happen regardless of my whistling past the graveyard or screaming into the storm winds, right?  Heh...

Then, there's this, too... LOL



 Grin  Cheesy  Tongue 

- 1KeyJKVWVxdavKTetDJpQWdUaota5jbtX6 -
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November 04, 2018, 10:05:42 PM
 #39773

Monero is one of my most trusted projects in the future. I'm thinking of investing in the first opportunity. I wish I had known so long ago. We still have the opportunity to have a solid project.

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November 04, 2018, 11:46:03 PM
 #39774


@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


Heh... okay okay yah I disappear for almost a year then come back and can't fucking shut up, huh... LOL

Well it'll happen or it won't happen regardless of my whistling past the graveyard or screaming into the storm winds, right?  Heh...

Then, there's this, too... LOL



 Grin  Cheesy  Tongue 

Hah, Great to see you posting!
Chart looks nice today. Smiley

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November 05, 2018, 01:01:40 PM
 #39775

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

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November 05, 2018, 02:24:55 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2018, 03:59:47 PM by generalizethis
 #39776

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

scale of testing != best implementation

The bug recently found underscores that even BTC, with its obvious limitations, isn't flawless or vetted enough. Also, there's the well-known fact, at least in this neck of the woods, that Bitcoin's aim to be an "eletronic cash" hasn't panned out.

If you had one job to do and couldn't do it, would you consider yourself the best?

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November 05, 2018, 06:13:19 PM
 #39777

scale of testing != best implementation

The bug recently found underscores that even BTC, with its obvious limitations, isn't flawless or vetted enough. Also, there's the well-known fact, at least in this neck of the woods, that Bitcoin's aim to be an "eletronic cash" hasn't panned out.

If you had one job to do and couldn't do it, would you consider yourself the best?


I tend to fall on the small block (at least for now) side of that argument, and believe bitcoin will find it's way in the end. 

Montero does an interesting job of pointing to a lot of possible solutions though...
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November 05, 2018, 11:38:40 PM
 #39778


But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

https://medium.com/s/story/the-domestication-of-cryptocurrency-acc832a0ad1c

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November 06, 2018, 02:19:39 AM
 #39779

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

The lasting legacy of Bitcoin will be the total market cap of the cryptosphere, this pool of wealth is only 10 years old, and unlike any other in human history, it is free of conventional control, growing over time, and can morph itself into other forms almost immediately with minimal costs. Bitcoin and all other current crypto tokens might not exist in 10 years, but the pool of wealth will, it will continue morphing into new tokens by new tech as long as humans exist.
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November 06, 2018, 09:51:56 AM
 #39780

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

The lasting legacy of Bitcoin will be the total market cap of the cryptosphere, this pool of wealth is only 10 years old, and unlike any other in human history, it is free of conventional control, growing over time, and can morph itself into other forms almost immediately with minimal costs. Bitcoin and all other current crypto tokens might not exist in 10 years, but the pool of wealth will, it will continue morphing into new tokens by new tech as long as humans exist.

I liked your post, this is what I thought of after...

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