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Author Topic: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game  (Read 473266 times)
arij
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August 09, 2012, 04:01:42 AM
 #641

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=6fbcfb5bfe0101d9959d934b7d7cda998727ad4d70032d71b29b07e2b46c4b85

I think there is a problem with this bet, as it has not been returned to me yet.


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AndrewBUD
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August 12, 2012, 04:25:15 PM
 #642

I have done 5 bets in a row without any returns....

TX ID's:

f50d27ad60f37cf87113b35fa4c694234c8fd21aa89b7f2d9938a53fd72bf08d

b83441d912f88c19c6165ad7c904a6f702b80023fdcf1d3c508d8d4c00c9c646

244986081d499e75e35210049182e8753e61b28352ddc5aff456695d301708fc

963f684757f7b409f977756add7518e3a324f8d1c8455217ed819a86aec1a91b

94b95dcf7cfbd4572a7396bce23d40e83f64e02884a734f097cab99fc81b92b4

None of these have returned anything and are on confirmation 2 of 6..



Came through.. Took a very long time...

evoorhees
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August 14, 2012, 04:49:12 AM
 #643


This has now been fixed - arij can confirm Smiley
VelvetLeaf
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August 15, 2012, 10:53:48 AM
 #644

Still winning so far, thanks SatoshiDice !
One quick question, what's the % chance to lose if I do 73% roll three times ?

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ericrw14
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August 15, 2012, 12:43:22 PM
 #645

Still winning so far, thanks SatoshiDice !
One quick question, what's the % chance to lose if I do 73% roll three times ?

percent chance to lose once or to lose 3 times in a row
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August 15, 2012, 01:03:44 PM
 #646

percent chance to lose once or to lose 3 times in a row

Percent chance to lose once. I want to know the formula so I can calculate when I'll approach my loss and stop gambling while I'm still winning.
Formula to calculate percent chance to lose 2-3 time in a row is fine too.

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organofcorti
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August 15, 2012, 01:11:47 PM
 #647

For any three games in a row:

chance of win = p = 0.732422
chance of loss = 1 - p = 1 - 0.732422 = 0.267578

chance of 2 wins and one loss = p*p*(1-p) = 0.1435401


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VelvetLeaf
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August 15, 2012, 01:31:04 PM
 #648

For any three games in a row:

chance of win = p = 0.732422
chance of loss = 1 - p = 1 - 0.732422 = 0.267578

chance of 2 wins and one loss = p*p*(1-p) = 0.1435401



Following your math, is this correct ?

1 game
win : 73%
lose : 27%

2 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%

3 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 39.29%
2 wins 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 14.35%
1 wins 2 loses : 0.732422 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 5.24%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 1.91%

Why the sum of all percentage in 2 games are not 100% ?

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kano
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August 15, 2012, 02:17:51 PM
 #649

...
2 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%
...
Why the sum of all percentage in 2 games are not 100% ?
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59% times 2
(1 win 1 loss = 1 loss 1 win)

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VelvetLeaf
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August 15, 2012, 03:20:51 PM
 #650

...
2 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%
...
Why the sum of all percentage in 2 games are not 100% ?
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59% times 2
(1 win 1 loss = 1 loss 1 win)

Thanks, so this is the correct one :

1 game
win : 73%
lose : 27%

2 games = 2^2 = 4 combination
all wins :  0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
1 lose 1 win : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%

3 games = 2^3 = 8 combination
win win win
win win lose
win lose win
win lose lose
lose win lose
lose win win
lose lose win
lose lose lose

compacted to
1 [win win win] : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 39.29%
3 [win win lose] : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 14.35% * 3 = 43.05%
3 [lose lose win] : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.732422 = 5.24% * 3 = 15.73%
1 [lose lose lose] : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 1.91

The winning chance streak get reduced after each game Sad
As long as I don't play more than one two three four games it should be okay right ?  Grin

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zoinky
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August 15, 2012, 06:30:44 PM
 #651

I've been gambling all morning but it seems it has frozen?  This transaction has yet to get a win/loss response:

https://blockchain.info/tx-index/15903774/018e2439cd61ea26264f0ea35f682b1a28074afb926e5b087840ab874f2aafd6
AndrewBUD
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August 15, 2012, 08:46:13 PM
 #652

It seems like it gets stuck sometimes..... I had 3 or 4 confirmations on 5 bets before it returned anything.. But it will Smiley

evoorhees
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August 15, 2012, 09:19:08 PM
 #653

SatoshiDice hit 1,000,000 bets today.

Rock on, Bitcoin.
Raoul Duke
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August 15, 2012, 09:20:00 PM
 #654

SatoshiDice hit 1,000,000 bets today.

Rock on, Bitcoin.

WOW, just WOW! Yes, with capitals!  Shocked

Congrats!

AndrewBUD
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August 15, 2012, 09:33:42 PM
 #655

Right on man,,, Pretty cool...

papaminer
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August 16, 2012, 04:54:56 AM
 #656

me likey likey..

but is there an easier way to get the winnings from a new address?

฿: 1L7dSte4Rs4KyyxRCgrqSWYtkXdAb4Gy1z

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evoorhees
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August 16, 2012, 10:35:58 PM
 #657

me likey likey..

but is there an easier way to get the winnings from a new address?


It's being worked on...
papaminer
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August 16, 2012, 10:50:20 PM
 #658

hi,

how do I send a bet to 50% odd multiple times?

i tried doing it but it says cannot send to a duplicate address

im doing it in my pc wallet not online

฿: 1L7dSte4Rs4KyyxRCgrqSWYtkXdAb4Gy1z

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byronbb
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August 17, 2012, 12:02:49 AM
 #659

SatoshiDice hit 1,000,000 bets today.

Rock on, Bitcoin.

at what kind of volume?

evoorhees
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August 17, 2012, 02:53:56 PM
 #660

hi,

how do I send a bet to 50% odd multiple times?

i tried doing it but it says cannot send to a duplicate address

im doing it in my pc wallet not online

You are using the standard Satoshi client on your PC?

In the Send Coins tab, you can click the "Add recipient" button at the bottom and add more bets to the same address I believe. Or is that what you already tried?
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