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Author Topic: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game  (Read 450301 times)
BRules
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May 20, 2013, 06:57:45 PM
 #1601

All I meant by the initial statement was that even given infinite time, the odds of 100% flipping one way or the other never are 0. Practically, sure, they're as good as zero. They head towards zero... but there's always that one path that is a 0 win catastrophe in however many flips you make.

And that's where I disagree.

Given finite time there's a possibility you'll lose every 50/50 bet you make.

Given infinite time (so long as you keep playing regularly) there's no possibility that you'll lose every 50/50 bet you make, due to the nature of infinity.

It's the same as how 0.999 recurring is equal to 1.  It's not close, it's equal.  Given a finite number of 9's on the end it's a little less than 1.  But given an infinite number of 9's, it's equal to 1.  Can we agree on that bit?  (Edit: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999...)

I understand that concept of .999... = 1 but the part I cannot realize is how if you roll forever you "must" win, and can't always lose.


I believe that if you were to roll forever, all that implies is that you're never stopping. Even if you never stop, you can always lose 100% of your rolls. It becomes less and less likely, converging towards zero. but there is no repeating decimal, it is a shifting value with each roll?


As #rolls approaches INF the chance you will always lose converges to zero but never reaches zero. The idea is that anything that converges towards but never reaches is = to the number (since there are no numbers in between) makes sense.

What doesn't, to me, is resolving an infinite series to a finite result:

If you "always" flip a coin you will "never" always lose.
Hard to wrap my head around!



dooglus is almost completely correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

so, to "make things more clear". This also means that given a infinite time, it is "almost sure" that you lose infinite times in a row and also win infinite times in a row.

Edit: as this can make some confusion, let me quote that "there is no difference between almost surely and surely" so, when I said that dooglus is almost completely correct I want to say that he is completely correct.

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May 20, 2013, 07:09:58 PM
 #1602

I understand that concept of .999... = 1 but the part I cannot realize is how if you roll forever you "must" win, and can't always lose.

OK then.  Since you agree 0.999... is equal to 1, let's use that to prove the other point:

Suppose (to make the maths easier) you're rolling a 10 sided dice, and you only lose if you roll a 6.

After the 1st roll, the probability that you won is 0.9 (there's a 1 in 10 chance that you rolled a 6)
After the 2nd roll, the probability that you won at least once is 0.99 (there's only a 1 in 100 chance that you rolled a 6 both times)
After the 9th roll, the probability that you won at least once is 0.999999999 (nine 9's)
If you play forever, the probability that you win at least once is 0.999... recurring forever.

You just agreed that 0.999... recurring forever is equal to 1, so the probability that you win at least once if you play forever is 1.

ie. you're going to win at least once, for sure.

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May 21, 2013, 05:24:36 PM
 #1603

tmobile have done satoshidice a favor by blocking US access to it,

calaber24p
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May 21, 2013, 06:07:53 PM
 #1604

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here.

Been watching this thread for a couple weeks or so now, just joined so I had the ability to post. I have around 400 usd invested in Satoshi Dice, but I think the site needs to expand or it will eventually die out. The problem with betting bitcoins is many who mine them use them as investments or flat out sell them to those who use them as investments. Imo bitcoin has become too expensive of a commodity and SatoshiDice needs to branch out with other coins like LTC or FTC for example. With the lack of places to use these coins, those who mine them have a lot less worth for them and have less of a problem gambling them away. The key to a site like Satoshidice is the law of averages which basically states the more bets taken results in a percentage closer to the 1.9% profit. This is just my two cents, but I strongly believe if satoshidice either mined a base amount of altcoins or bought them, then allowed people to play with them, the coin prices would not only go up (instant advantage for satoshidice), but monthly we would see more profit. This is just my opinion, but feel free to respond to it. Regardless im a satoshi dice believer.
organofcorti
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May 21, 2013, 10:28:12 PM
 #1605

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here. [ ... ]

Link ?

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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May 22, 2013, 01:04:23 AM
 #1606

Link ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg2205675#msg2205675

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organofcorti
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May 22, 2013, 01:51:44 AM
 #1607


Ah, I was hoping for a "statistical analysis forum". That would have been cool! Well, for me anyway.


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TradeFortress
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May 26, 2013, 03:05:02 AM
 #1608

Congratulations to SD on a nice write-up in the Business Week technology section this morning.  You guys are moving bitcoin forward.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-03/bitcoin-making-online-gambling-legal-in-the-u-dot-s-dot#r=nav-r-story

This is funny.
Zaih
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May 26, 2013, 03:12:35 AM
 #1609

Congratulations to SD on a nice write-up in the Business Week technology section this morning.  You guys are moving bitcoin forward.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-03/bitcoin-making-online-gambling-legal-in-the-u-dot-s-dot#r=nav-r-story

This is funny.

Heh.. little did they know
dermo
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May 26, 2013, 07:50:47 AM
 #1610

Site experiencing issue atm ?

recent bet seems frozen oO
Zaih
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May 26, 2013, 07:53:57 AM
 #1611

Site experiencing issue atm ?

recent bet seems frozen oO

Same on my end. Doubt it's affecting bets though, or else people would be swarming here complaining Tongue
dermo
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May 26, 2013, 07:56:10 AM
 #1612

Site experiencing issue atm ?

recent bet seems frozen oO

Same on my end. Doubt it's affecting bets though, or else people would be swarming here complaining Tongue

Have bet Cheesy and no return :/

https://blockchain.info/fr/tx/2e5bae1e24b13854a5372b8898cd20f74d307451966380c797334ee83b1cca29
CanadianGuy
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May 26, 2013, 08:05:49 AM
 #1613

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here.

Been watching this thread for a couple weeks or so now, just joined so I had the ability to post. I have around 400 usd invested in Satoshi Dice, but I think the site needs to expand or it will eventually die out. The problem with betting bitcoins is many who mine them use them as investments or flat out sell them to those who use them as investments. Imo bitcoin has become too expensive of a commodity and SatoshiDice needs to branch out with other coins like LTC or FTC for example. With the lack of places to use these coins, those who mine them have a lot less worth for them and have less of a problem gambling them away. The key to a site like Satoshidice is the law of averages which basically states the more bets taken results in a percentage closer to the 1.9% profit. This is just my two cents, but I strongly believe if satoshidice either mined a base amount of altcoins or bought them, then allowed people to play with them, the coin prices would not only go up (instant advantage for satoshidice), but monthly we would see more profit. This is just my opinion, but feel free to respond to it. Regardless im a satoshi dice believer.


horrible idea
Zaih
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May 26, 2013, 09:26:53 AM
 #1614

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here.

Been watching this thread for a couple weeks or so now, just joined so I had the ability to post. I have around 400 usd invested in Satoshi Dice, but I think the site needs to expand or it will eventually die out. The problem with betting bitcoins is many who mine them use them as investments or flat out sell them to those who use them as investments. Imo bitcoin has become too expensive of a commodity and SatoshiDice needs to branch out with other coins like LTC or FTC for example. With the lack of places to use these coins, those who mine them have a lot less worth for them and have less of a problem gambling them away. The key to a site like Satoshidice is the law of averages which basically states the more bets taken results in a percentage closer to the 1.9% profit. This is just my two cents, but I strongly believe if satoshidice either mined a base amount of altcoins or bought them, then allowed people to play with them, the coin prices would not only go up (instant advantage for satoshidice), but monthly we would see more profit. This is just my opinion, but feel free to respond to it. Regardless im a satoshi dice believer.


horrible idea

It isn't that bad of idea.. It's not as if SD has anything to lose doing it. It's simply expanding. And he's completely right on the idea that people have less value placed in something they don't have many options to spend with it. And there's no doubt at all that people are more likely to gamble away money they care about less.

No need to shoot him down like that?..
CanadianGuy
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May 26, 2013, 11:25:50 AM
 #1615

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here.

Been watching this thread for a couple weeks or so now, just joined so I had the ability to post. I have around 400 usd invested in Satoshi Dice, but I think the site needs to expand or it will eventually die out. The problem with betting bitcoins is many who mine them use them as investments or flat out sell them to those who use them as investments. Imo bitcoin has become too expensive of a commodity and SatoshiDice needs to branch out with other coins like LTC or FTC for example. With the lack of places to use these coins, those who mine them have a lot less worth for them and have less of a problem gambling them away. The key to a site like Satoshidice is the law of averages which basically states the more bets taken results in a percentage closer to the 1.9% profit. This is just my two cents, but I strongly believe if satoshidice either mined a base amount of altcoins or bought them, then allowed people to play with them, the coin prices would not only go up (instant advantage for satoshidice), but monthly we would see more profit. This is just my opinion, but feel free to respond to it. Regardless im a satoshi dice believer.


horrible idea

It isn't that bad of idea.. It's not as if SD has anything to lose doing it. It's simply expanding. And he's completely right on the idea that people have less value placed in something they don't have many options to spend with it. And there's no doubt at all that people are more likely to gamble away money they care about less.

No need to shoot him down like that?..


his idea would require Satoshidice to have a large supply of worthless alt-coins in order to pay winners.  LTC, okay maybe.. but if they stockpile up on worthless POOPcoins, scamcoins, and rapemecoins then that means they would have to make an initial investment into the currency to do that.  They would be taking on massive risk. It just makes no fucking sense as a company to invest in a starting pile of Shrute Bucks just to bring in more people. That's like sticking your dick in a bear trap, just to see if it will know its not a bear..
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May 26, 2013, 12:06:45 PM
 #1616

Yes, let SDICE make, 5 BTC a month in extra profit from all those worthless coins?
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May 26, 2013, 04:22:49 PM
 #1617

Hey all,

Site processing was down temporarily. All is well, site is back up now, and bets are clearing through. It's great to see so many people using the new live chat and support feature!
Zaih
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May 26, 2013, 04:26:36 PM
 #1618

I posted this on another statistical analysis forum but hope more will see it here.

Been watching this thread for a couple weeks or so now, just joined so I had the ability to post. I have around 400 usd invested in Satoshi Dice, but I think the site needs to expand or it will eventually die out. The problem with betting bitcoins is many who mine them use them as investments or flat out sell them to those who use them as investments. Imo bitcoin has become too expensive of a commodity and SatoshiDice needs to branch out with other coins like LTC or FTC for example. With the lack of places to use these coins, those who mine them have a lot less worth for them and have less of a problem gambling them away. The key to a site like Satoshidice is the law of averages which basically states the more bets taken results in a percentage closer to the 1.9% profit. This is just my two cents, but I strongly believe if satoshidice either mined a base amount of altcoins or bought them, then allowed people to play with them, the coin prices would not only go up (instant advantage for satoshidice), but monthly we would see more profit. This is just my opinion, but feel free to respond to it. Regardless im a satoshi dice believer.


horrible idea

It isn't that bad of idea.. It's not as if SD has anything to lose doing it. It's simply expanding. And he's completely right on the idea that people have less value placed in something they don't have many options to spend with it. And there's no doubt at all that people are more likely to gamble away money they care about less.

No need to shoot him down like that?..


his idea would require Satoshidice to have a large supply of worthless alt-coins in order to pay winners.  LTC, okay maybe.. but if they stockpile up on worthless POOPcoins, scamcoins, and rapemecoins then that means they would have to make an initial investment into the currency to do that.  They would be taking on massive risk. It just makes no fucking sense as a company to invest in a starting pile of Shrute Bucks just to bring in more people. That's like sticking your dick in a bear trap, just to see if it will know its not a bear..

Fair call, fair call.

There are some well established ones.
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May 26, 2013, 05:27:50 PM
 #1619

I tried accessing the website last night and again this morning and saw:



I'm in Canada, and pretty far from the US border.

'whois' on my IP address tells me:

Quote
NetRange:       198.254.128.0 - 198.254.255.255
CIDR:           198.254.128.0/17
OriginAS:       AS22995
NetName:        XPLORNET-012
NetHandle:      NET-198-254-128-0-1
Parent:         NET-198-0-0-0-0
NetType:        Direct Allocation
RegDate:        2012-04-30
Updated:        2012-04-30
Ref:            http://whois.arin.net/rest/net/NET-198-254-128-0-1

OrgName:        Xplornet Communications Inc.
OrgId:          BARRE-2
Address:        300 Lockhart Rd
Address:        D
City:           Woodstock
StateProv:      NB
PostalCode:     E7M-5C3
Country:        CA

so it's pretty clear it's a Canadian IP address.

Are you deliberately blocking all of Canada now as well, or is this a misconfiguration of something?

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May 26, 2013, 07:38:01 PM
 #1620

I tried accessing the website last night and again this morning and saw:



I'm in Canada, and pretty far from the US border.

'whois' on my IP address tells me:

Quote
NetRange:       198.254.128.0 - 198.254.255.255
CIDR:           198.254.128.0/17
OriginAS:       AS22995
NetName:        XPLORNET-012
NetHandle:      NET-198-254-128-0-1
Parent:         NET-198-0-0-0-0
NetType:        Direct Allocation
RegDate:        2012-04-30
Updated:        2012-04-30
Ref:            http://whois.arin.net/rest/net/NET-198-254-128-0-1

OrgName:        Xplornet Communications Inc.
OrgId:          BARRE-2
Address:        300 Lockhart Rd
Address:        D
City:           Woodstock
StateProv:      NB
PostalCode:     E7M-5C3
Country:        CA

so it's pretty clear it's a Canadian IP address.

Are you deliberately blocking all of Canada now as well, or is this a misconfiguration of something?
Hi!
This is a mistake which will be taken care of as soon as possible.
We have no plans to block Canadian IPs.
Best regards
The Spirit of Satoshi

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