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Author Topic: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game  (Read 438083 times)
BRules
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January 15, 2013, 04:49:41 PM
 #1061

tke for the info. Looks like satoshi dice has starting paying fees again. http://blockchain.info/tx-index/43970685/7d21d9068259204d21961c8401b59c5792ddaa91b33308093bb17eb2e35dae22

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deepceleron
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January 15, 2013, 05:47:15 PM
 #1062

this coins aren't mine, it was just an example.

what how exactly the coins will return to satoshidice?

Transactions that are never relayed and/or never confirmed eventually end up back in the sender's wallet... as if the transaction never happened. This usually takes a day (or two).

The transaction was relayed - that is how blockchain.info knows about it - it was broadcast around the network. However, as it didn't include the minimum 0.0001 per KB fee for relay through the p2p network, only those that have a direct IP connection to Satoshidice's server or another peer that has relaxed relaying policies would know about it, and the chance that there is a miner with this transaction waiting in their memory pool is low.

Bitcoins don't magically end up back in the wallet if they are not included in a block. The Bitcoin wallet software considers spent coins as spent, and it takes manually removing the transaction through wallet editing tools to restore the balance shown in the wallet - likely SatoshiDice is not going to do this for 0.001 BTC that they consider "sent" (and should have just kept/ignored) so the coins will probably be considered lost.

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January 17, 2013, 04:12:40 PM
 #1063

It looks like S.Dice now waits for 1 confirmation before handing out BTC. Is this for real?

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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January 20, 2013, 02:26:38 AM
 #1064

satoshi dice isn't paying fees for returning below minimum transactions anymore. but these transactions aren't being relayed as they don't met the free transactions conditions (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction_fees). so, what will happen with these coins?

example:

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/43841974/2dc3e903d6c30fffb8c606ed4dd26d57a3c5436128dd8267c0379467681156d3


The transaction was relayed - that is how blockchain.info knows about it - it was broadcast around the network. However, as it didn't include the minimum 0.0001 per KB fee for relay through the p2p network, only those that have a direct IP connection to Satoshidice's server or another peer that has relaxed relaying policies would know about it, and the chance that there is a miner with this transaction waiting in their memory pool is low.

Bitcoins don't magically end up back in the wallet if they are not included in a block. The Bitcoin wallet software considers spent coins as spent, and it takes manually removing the transaction through wallet editing tools to restore the balance shown in the wallet - likely SatoshiDice is not going to do this for 0.001 BTC that they consider "sent" (and should have just kept/ignored) so the coins will probably be considered lost.

As a followup, this transaction was included in Block 216642 by Eclipse mining pool after 10 hours, along with several other transactions that did not pay minimum fees.

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January 20, 2013, 06:50:36 PM
 #1065

It looks like S.Dice now waits for 1 confirmation before handing out BTC. Is this for real?

It might wait for a confirmation if the transaction looks really suspicious, but in the vast majority of bets no confirmation is required.
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January 22, 2013, 11:30:51 PM
 #1066

Is there a historical chart somewhere of all the random numbers rolled since day 1?

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January 23, 2013, 04:18:48 AM
 #1067

Is there a historical chart somewhere of all the random numbers rolled since day 1?

I don't believe so
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January 23, 2013, 08:57:16 AM
 #1068

Is there a historical chart somewhere of all the random numbers rolled since day 1?

I don't believe so

Several months ago I calculated a rough distribution of the random numbers.  It's rough because I can't be sure which day's secret was used for each bet.  Some bets are processed long before they get into a block, and some long after.  But if I use the timestamp on each bet's block, I get the correct date more often than not.

I just recalculated the distribution again and plotted it.

Here's a plot of the number of occurrences of each random number.  The most common number is 45686, appearing 66 times, and the least common is 20190, appearing only 12 times:



Here's a plot of the percentage of random numbers less than each given number.  It should be a straight line, and pretty much is:



Here's a list showing, for each satoshidice bet, how many random numbers were below the bet threshold (A), how many we would expect to be under that threshold (B), and A as a percentage of B.

For example, since there were 2258204 lucky numbers generated, we would expect 2258204/65536 = 34.46 of the random numbers to be less than 1.  In fact, only 29 were below 1, which is 84.16% of the expected amount.

Quote
bet     actual   expected percentage
---     ------   -------- ----------
<1          29      34.46  84.16%
<2          66      68.91  95.77%
<4         122     137.83  88.51%
<8         256     275.66  92.87%
<16        541     551.32  98.13%
<32       1107    1102.64 100.40%
<64       2174    2205.28  98.58%
<128      4431    4410.55 100.46%
<256      8821    8821.11 100.00%
<512     17640   17642.22  99.99%
<1000    34625   34457.46 100.49%
<1500    51827   51686.19 100.27%
<2000    68942   68914.92 100.04%
<3000   103308  103372.38  99.94%
<4000   137852  137829.83 100.02%
<6000   206324  206744.75  99.80%
<8000   275210  275659.67  99.84%
<12000  413822  413489.50 100.08%
<16000  551369  551319.34 100.01%
<24000  828042  826979.00 100.13%
<32000 1104104 1102638.67 100.13%
<32768 1130370 1129102.00 100.11%
<48000 1654832 1653958.01 100.05%
<52000 1792371 1791787.84 100.03%
<56000 1929924 1929617.68 100.02%
<60000 2067668 2067447.51 100.01%
<64000 2205597 2205277.34 100.01%

In summary, it looks like the random numbers are pretty evenly distributed in the range 0-65535.

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January 23, 2013, 09:27:56 AM
 #1069

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?

Dacentec, best deals for US dedicated servers. They regularly restock $20-$25 Opterons with 8-16GB RAM & 2x1-2TB HDD's (ofc, usually lots of other good stuff to choose from).  I did a Serverbear benchmark of one of my $20/mo Opteron (June last year), it's here.  Have had about a half dozen different servers with Dacentec, & none have failed to sustain at least 40MB/s (burst higher). My favorite is a 12-month rent-to-own ZT Systems 2XL5520 16GB 2x2TB SATA for $40/month (got lucky with the 'off-brand', haven't seen a RTO 2xL5520 for under $50/mo since -- at least for monthly contracts).  wholesaleinternet.com has some ancient 2-core intel CPUs @ $10/mo sometimes (I got an Intel Core 2 6300 @ 1.86GHz, with a 250GB HDD with 46000 hours on it, LOL. $20 @ Dacentec is much better, if you can grab one). joesdatacenter.com (same location as Wholesale Internet) also occasionally has specials (or if you don't want to wait, it has an AMD Opteron 170 @ $16/mo).
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January 23, 2013, 09:30:07 AM
 #1070

<8000   275210  275659.67  99.84%
<12000  413822  413489.50 100.08%

no wonder i always lose.  damn under 8000 bets.  i  sense foul chicanery at work

Dacentec, best deals for US dedicated servers. They regularly restock $20-$25 Opterons with 8-16GB RAM & 2x1-2TB HDD's (ofc, usually lots of other good stuff to choose from).  I did a Serverbear benchmark of one of my $20/mo Opteron (June last year), it's here.  Have had about a half dozen different servers with Dacentec, & none have failed to sustain at least 40MB/s (burst higher). My favorite is a 12-month rent-to-own ZT Systems 2XL5520 16GB 2x2TB SATA for $40/month (got lucky with the 'off-brand', haven't seen a RTO 2xL5520 for under $50/mo since -- at least for monthly contracts).  wholesaleinternet.com has some ancient 2-core intel CPUs @ $10/mo sometimes (I got an Intel Core 2 6300 @ 1.86GHz, with a 250GB HDD with 46000 hours on it, LOL. $20 @ Dacentec is much better, if you can grab one). joesdatacenter.com (same location as Wholesale Internet) also occasionally has specials (or if you don't want to wait, it has an AMD Opteron 170 @ $16/mo).
organofcorti
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January 23, 2013, 10:15:15 AM
 #1071

<8000   275210  275659.67  99.84%
<12000  413822  413489.50 100.08%

no wonder i always lose.  damn under 8000 bets.  i  sense foul chicanery at work

You must be a 0.1%er Wink

In seriousness though, I posted the CDF probabiities for the winning bets a while back and even though the < 16 bets seem to be significantly below expected, they're probably (haven't worked it out) still inside a reasonable confidence zone since there's so few expected wins yet.

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Herbert
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January 23, 2013, 10:42:05 AM
 #1072

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?
I think because it actually is harder to get it right than it seems. You need a deep understanding of the bitcoin protocol as most of the stuff you have to do is beyond the capabilites of the standard client. Besides BTCDice if I remember correctly I think there were one or two additional 1:1 copies that also went down quickly. And SDice will have forever the first-mover advantage, so any 1:1 copy will have a very hard time.

If you want to compete with SDice you have to differentiate, not just copy (which is what I am trying with bitbattle.me Wink).

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January 23, 2013, 11:33:44 AM
 #1073

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?
I think because it actually is harder to get it right than it seems. You need a deep understanding of the bitcoin protocol as most of the stuff you have to do is beyond the capabilites of the standard client. Besides BTCDice if I remember correctly I think there were one or two additional 1:1 copies that also went down quickly. And SDice will have forever the first-mover advantage, so any 1:1 copy will have a very hard time.

If you want to compete with SDice you have to differentiate, not just copy (which is what I am trying with botbittle.me Wink).
... and then latch on to SatoshiDice and post ads about your site in here and pretend you didn't ...

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January 23, 2013, 12:28:30 PM
 #1074

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?

Bankroll - how much does an upstart site need to hold off someones martingale? How about multiple whales playing at the same time?

SD (and competitors) need to be able to go out thousands of coin while waiting for the player to bust.

This is so sweet. Back in August people were all liek

Sorry, but for a new unproven (yes 3 months is unproven) business with an easily reproducible model, where the margins will come under pressure from competitors, and which will inevitably succumb to the "It was fun but I've gotten bored of that" novelty value fatigue, I think you should be factoring in considerable reduction, not growth.

Meanwhile the competition is liek

Hmm, it looks like we were overly optimistic regarding how many people would use the site. In light of this we are considering closing the site down. If anyone is interested in purchasing the script and taking over please PM me.

These coincidences. Damn them!

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January 23, 2013, 01:12:09 PM
 #1075

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?

Bankroll - how much does an upstart site need to hold off someones martingale? How about multiple whales playing at the same time?

SD (and competitors) need to be able to go out thousands of coin while waiting for the player to bust.

A "Martingale" is a failure betting fallacy, and a casino can only hope for players so stupid. It will result in a player going bust far quicker than the casino. If the bet unit is 1 at 50% odds, and the betting can continue for many rounds of doubling (say 10 rounds before hitting a limit - which is 1024x) then there is little risk to the Casino. Even a win with this "strategy" means the casino wins 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512, and if the player wins the final bet the player's total winnings is 1 bet unit; however the player has statistically paid more in house edge when betting those amounts then the total winnings; the bets are independent everywhere except in the player's mind.

Google "risk of ruin". The profit/loss of a casino over the long term is a random walk, and there is always a very small chance that any casino will go bust. If I have a 1 BTC coin flip game and have 5 BTC in the bank, I can let a player play four times with zero risk; there is a one-in-32 chance that the player will bust me in five flips. If I let the player play an infinite amount of time, there is a 100% chance the player will bust me (at some point in the future, maybe after the sun explodes). With a house edge, I can make the risk approach zero within a normal timeline.




If I open a casino tomorrow, there is an extremely small chance that every bet ever placed at the casino will be won by the player. One would need to adjust the gaming rules and house edge to minimize the chance of casino ruin to something you consider safe - do you want a 1% of going bust; a .001% chance of going bust, etc? SD has minimized this risk while having a bankroll to pay out some very high rewards on the higher odds games.


Answering the original question, "why aren't there five million copycat Googles, eBays, Amazons?" If you do something first, and do it as good as any competitor might, there is market inertia that presents a barrier to entry for others.

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January 23, 2013, 01:26:40 PM
 #1076

How come there aren't like... five million copycat sites of this yet?  All I can think of is BTCDice and it doesn't even seem to work?

Bankroll - how much does an upstart site need to hold off someones martingale? How about multiple whales playing at the same time?

SD (and competitors) need to be able to go out thousands of coin while waiting for the player to bust.

A "Martingale" is a failure betting fallacy, and a casino can only hope for players so stupid.

Mostly true, especially if it's a naive "double up" with each loss. I derived a martingale strategy that can be used to significantly increase the number of bets before bankruptcy [strategy explained here]. The end result is the same as using a naive strategy, but the "entertainment" value is greater.

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January 23, 2013, 09:30:53 PM
 #1077

the < 16 bets seem to be significantly below expected

Note that the stats I posted were generated by looking at all 2 million random numbers generated so far and working out how many we would expect to be below 16, then counting how many were actually below 16.  I didn't just look at the random numbers generated for the "lessthan 16" bet, but all random numbers for all types of bet.

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January 24, 2013, 12:04:47 AM
 #1078

<8000   275210  275659.67  99.84%
<12000  413822  413489.50 100.08%

no wonder i always lose.  damn under 8000 bets.  i  sense foul chicanery at work

You must be a 0.1%er Wink

In seriousness though, I posted the CDF probabiities for the winning bets a while back and even though the < 16 bets seem to be significantly below expected, they're probably (haven't worked it out) still inside a reasonable confidence zone since there's so few expected wins yet.
Somewhere many pages back I used binomial distribution to calculate the "confidence zone;" nothing was off enough to suspect foul play.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
I imagine most people here should be able to follow it; the most difficult math used is factorials.

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January 24, 2013, 08:28:12 PM
 #1079

I wonder if there could be a Satoshi Dice game where the casino destroys a portion of the coins it earns, thus increasing the $ value of the coins in its pocket.
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January 24, 2013, 08:51:03 PM
 #1080

That would mean the casino is essentially gambling with its own funds in my eyes. It would have to hope that the $ value goes up enough to cover the amount that was "destroyed" in the first place, you also would have problems with transparency and showing people how you are "destroying" the coins and not just keeping them.


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