KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2438 blocks

[UfoRia]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.


Ufo

[clgrissom3]

Block by Jays86! That's his 8th kano block! 

[citronick]

The Pool is certainly not very friendly today so far in rewarding blocks to Pool members.

This is my first weekend being on this Pool and I took a look back at last Saturday and Sunday only, (which I know the past has no bearing on future luck.)

Last Sat/Sun were both 4-block days each.
 
Does anyone know with any empirical knowledge whether weekends tend to be below, at, or above average on average? Or is it all just one day as lucky as the next with the randomness of Pool blocks.

I would like to see at least one more block for the day. Hopefully, the restart will prove lucky again!  

Good luck all!!

I joined Kano in Dec last year, from Slush.

I did my own study and analysis and tried to predict a pattern. Which days give many blocks? When will the next block be?

For weeks, I studied the available data and also zach monroe's charts... Excel.... plot this... plot that.... etc.

Result: No distinctive pattern, and when I got to learn more technical bits of statistical aspects of mining; it's just pure random luck.

So what works, you say?

You have heard of famous Block Friday in this thread - this is somewhat consistent that more than average blocks happens on Friday +/- 12 hours UTC.

Some Fridays, were bad Fridays.

Now there is Block Wednesday - where we broke the current record of 8 blocks in a day to 11 blocks that lucky Wednesday.

So my silly conclusion says the action happens starting from Wed to Saturday. But then again.... we had a monster Monday a few weeks back too.

So you see.... it could be anytime.... now....

BLOCK!!!!

[kano]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.

Ufo

Yep and what actually happens is ... the more often you do it, the closer you expect to get to the pool average
(Be it from below or above)

[wmabern]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.


Ufo

Right now I just started an order for 180TH over 3 1/2 days. Of course it will fluctuate as rentals tend to do, and I may up the hash level when the feeling strikes. That is on top of my two S'7 here at home that are overclocked to 750 MHz each (air conditioned, ventilated and temps in the low 50c's on the devices.) They are each putting out ~5,036.26 GH/S(avg)

Here's to luck!

Yay! Block!

[UfoRia]

Yep and what actually happens is ... the more often you do it, the closer you expect to get to the pool average
(Be it from below or above)

The law of averages...

We have a bad run of luck over 10 blocks, I will throw 700 th - 1200 pt for a day and a half. If you maintain your average level on top of your extra hash, it helps a bit.


Ufo

[clgrissom3]

Block by awangkenit with 14.34THs, his 3rd kano block!

[UfoRia]

Block by awangkenit!

My normal average with the heavy leverage explained.


Ufo

edit: I am not that person

[UfoRia]

Meh, that's how I approach it at least.



Ufo

[clgrissom3]

Block by 12TMhCpL, his 17th kano block!

[kano]

Yay green

[hhumaidan]

Eating vegetables (Green) helps but people prefer meat (Red).

I am bored at work. Any suggestions? FYI I am an Auditor.

[citronick]

Eating vegetables (Green) helps but people prefer meat (Red).

I am bored at work. Any suggestions? FYI I am an Auditor.

bored...

Try listing what can you buy with Bitcoins on the Internet today.

[Newko]

Does anyone know with any empirical knowledge whether weekends tend to be below, at, or above average on average? Or is it all just one day as lucky as the next with the randomness of Pool blocks.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that overall all days on average are average.

Ha! Good one!

[Newko]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.


Ufo

Hmmmm...isn't that kinda like trying to predict when to bet big on roulette wheel based on previous spins? I don't think that will work because same as each spin of wheel is independent of previous spin (the roulette wheel has no memory), next block that Kano pool is trying to bust has no relation to previous block.

Best method for successful mining is:
1. Mine on Kano
2. Keep steady hash so your 5ND stays steady.
3. Mine on Kano

[edit] Nothing wrong with throwing extra rental hash (assuming good price) once in a while (for fun), but recognize that results are also random. It will increase your 5ND for a bit and if we crack a block during that time you'll get extra profit, but if we don't crack a block, then you'll get less profit because your expense was higher.

[clgrissom3]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.


Ufo

Hmmmm...isn't that kinda like trying to predict when to bet big on roulette wheel based on previous spins? I don't think that will work because same as each spin of wheel is independent of previous spin (the roulette wheel has no memory), next block that Kano pool is trying to bust has no relation to previous block.

Best method for successful mining is:
1. Mine on Kano
2. Keep steady hash so your 5ND stays steady.
3. Mine on Kano

[edit] Nothing wrong with throwing extra rental hash (assuming good price) once in a while (for fun), but recognize that results are also random. It will increase your 5ND for a bit and if we crack a block during that time you'll get extra profit, but if we don't crack a block, then you'll get less profit because your expense was higher.

Haha! Gamblers never seem to grasp the concept of independent random events.  That's where the gambler's fallacy comes from.  I once watched a friend playing roulette go all in on black after the wheel hit a string of 26 reds in a row...and it landed on red. 

[philipma1957]

The goal is to throw a bunch of hash at the right time (gamble), but throw an average amount when two blocks take longer than the expected daily.


Ufo

Hmmmm...isn't that kinda like trying to predict when to bet big on roulette wheel based on previous spins? I don't think that will work because same as each spin of wheel is independent of previous spin (the roulette wheel has no memory), next block that Kano pool is trying to bust has no relation to previous block.

Best method for successful mining is:
1. Mine on Kano
2. Keep steady hash so your 5ND stays steady.
3. Mine on Kano

[edit] Nothing wrong with throwing extra rental hash (assuming good price) once in a while (for fun), but recognize that results are also random. It will increase your 5ND for a bit and if we crack a block during that time you'll get extra profit, but if we don't crack a block, then you'll get less profit because your expense was higher.

Haha! Gamblers never seem to grasp the concept of independent random events.  That's where the gambler's fallacy comes from.  I once watched a friend playing roulette go all in on black after the wheel hit a string of 26 reds in a row...and it landed on red.  

this is why  the 50 and 100 block history matters  really nothing else.

My theory is our coin toss is stacked in our favor due  to superior software set up.

so we toss 55 heads and 45 tails.

I have no idea if my theory is true but as long as the 50 and 100 block marks show this to be true  this is the place to be.


Block Made #   --------   50 block luck  % ------------100 block luck %

826             ___________  120.23  _______________ 115.50

827            ____________ 116.50 ________________114.38

828 missed it

829           ----------------- 118.18 ---------------------- 115.40


830          ------------------- 117.51 --------------------- 114.91

I am looking to show everyone this is the place to mine.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1338693.msg14646641#msg14646641


Another way to think of it is black jack card counting.  
Perfectly legal edge and it was exactly that for years.

Too many people discovered it and casinos outlawed it.

I feel this pool has a software edge and the 50 to 100 blocks continue to show that edge.

[firetreeactual]

Eating vegetables (Green) helps but people prefer meat (Red).

I am bored at work. Any suggestions? FYI I am an Auditor.

I was the Chief Field Examiner for Avco Commercial for several years...I found that casually letting people know that you can read a desk upside down (ie., from the opposite side) makes for some interesting furtive looks and a lot of clean desks... 

[clgrissom3]

Block by cvokey with 32.98THs...his 3rd kano block!  Thanks for breaking that long one...whew!

[citronick]

Block by cvokey with 32.98THs and his 3rd kano block!  Thanks for breaking that long one...whew!

It's amazing feat that before cvokey's block was a block from solo.ckpool -- wow - back to back blocks!