Inaba
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 Offline
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
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October 17, 2012, 04:12:32 PM |
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The problem is that there is no disruptive technology on the horizon. CPU's had GPUs on the horizon - a huge leap forward. GPU's had FPGAs, another huge leap forward. FPGAs had ASIC, another huge leap forward. There's no huge leap forward for ASIC. Yes, there's a process shrink, but it's not going to see a 10x bump in hashing power or effeciency like we've seen up until now, so history can't really play as a guide in this instance, which is why the power issue is more important now than it ever has been.
Everything you said is true as far as the past goes - but ASICs are the end of the line for the foreseeable future. So I expect even first gen ASIC devices to be in service for a much longer period of time than any of the other technologies, and again, this is why power is important and not a "Oh that's nice factor." The ASIC devices (no matter who manufactures them) are likely to be quiet and not require much maintenance. You should be able to leave the min a cupboard and let them mine happily away for an extended period of time... and that means something that uses 2x or 3x the power is going to be far less profitable than one that's more power efficient over the lifetime of the unit.
In a nutshell, with ASIC you can just keep adding to your farm, unlike previous technologies, where you had to replace to keep up. That is, unless the power consumption exceeds it's profitability. I'd rather have that happen later rather than sooner.
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If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it. There was never anything there in the first place.
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Bitcoin addresses contain a checksum, so it is very unlikely that mistyping an address will cause you to lose money.
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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crazyates
Legendary
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Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
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October 17, 2012, 04:17:14 PM |
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How much of an increase will ASICs get in the future? Will ASICs one year from now be 10% faster? 50%
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flynn
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October 17, 2012, 04:21:46 PM |
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28nm ASICs are a huge step forward from 130nm ASICs and there are a lot of steps in between
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Epoch
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Activity: 922
Merit: 1003
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October 17, 2012, 04:28:54 PM |
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Yes, I cannot imagine a technology beyond ASIC. The constant necessity of upgrading in order to remain profitable is not an appealing situation for miners. And this 'staying power' is one aspect of ASICs that I am cautiously optimistic about. I would love being able to mine with the same ASIC for a year or two, but I'm too conservative to consider that a likely reality. And I could be wrong.
For the future of ASICs, I was thinking more along the lines of price. After 1/2 year or so of selling product, an ASIC vendor may very well have paid off their initial investment in process/equipment setup and one-time non-recoverable engineering costs.
Manufacturing the silicon wafers, in terms of per-ASIC cost, is relatively inexpensive. A few dollars per chip. After that, it *should* (I admit I'm just guessing here) be possible for vendors to offer the same product at a greatly reduced cost. So instead of a bASIC or SC Single selling for $1000, it might eventually be offered for $500 or $200 and still be profitable for the vendors.
Those future ASICs wouldn't necessarily be more 'efficient' in terms of GH/W, but they *would* be more efficient in terms of GH/$ compared to the products being offered now. One would need to stay on top of the ROI game. As ASICs become more dominant and drive difficulty up, marginalizing mining profit, I would certainly agree that having a more power-efficient device would be more desirable. The question is how quickly will this point be reached?
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PuertoLibre
Legendary
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Activity: 1834
Merit: 1003
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October 17, 2012, 04:41:22 PM |
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@ BFL_Josh (Inaba)
The biggest concern of mine is not electricity use if it remains within a certain range. What concerned me the most is what was the safe operating temperature for the mining hardware.
Winter is coming to the northern Hemisphere. So the heat put out by these devices will not be noticable if BFL or bASIC ships out in the next 2 to 3 months. But after Febuary, if one of these devices has to be cooled with Air Conditioning, then that would make a big dent in the profit margin. It would have been a deal breaker to add 1 to 2 kilowatts of power consumption during the following spring, summer and fall. As well as affect the reliability of the device.
Thank you for your recent answers on your mining device. That helped me understand that you have taken this into account and have designed safety features (well BFL_Engineer did at least) so that the device would not suffer from a heat related issue.
Those of us coming into summer will have this well tested before your summer rolls around  (assuming delivery before your summer)  +1 Good point, keep us updated on this! |
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bobitza
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October 17, 2012, 06:23:42 PM |
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In the context of bitcoin, terms such as 'short-term' and 'long-term' do not have the same meanings as we might normally attribute to them. ...
How long did CPU mining last once it became mainstream, before it was obsoleted by GPU mining? How long did GPU mining last before it was obsoleted by FPGAs? And how long did FPGA mining last now that ASICs are around the corner?
...
Only when the 'next generation' of hardware comes out, again with significant GH/$ advantage over these 1st-gen ASICs, will power consumption play anything more than a minor role. And is history is any indication, that could happen in the latter half of next year.
Valid points. I think however ASICs are end of the line and improvements will no longer come in leaps and bounds. Under this assumption, I share your forecast on the fact that the next version of ASICs will bring improvements in Gh/$ ratios as more chips are crammed into boards and R&D costs for chips are already recouped. No (major) changes in Gh/W ratios. Perhaps ASICs v.3 will bring less nm designs and changes in chip design that will bring Gh/W changes but that won't happen too soon. So, although you will be able to buy more Gh for the $, if you have an "old" ASIC device that still has a good Gh/W ratio, you should be good. Because again, Gh/$ is what will get people to buy more ASICs. Gh/W is what will keep people running them. I understand your argument that the increase in difficulty brought by the "new" ASIC devices with their super Gh/$ ratios will make your "old" devices produce pennies a day. But like Inaba said, a Jalapeno is a noiseless, low maintenance coffee warmer that you can stack up a few under your desk and let them mine. ... with one condition!! Electricity costs < Pennies produced (aka Gh/W efficient). |
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Inaba
Legendary
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Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
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October 17, 2012, 06:30:19 PM |
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New meme!
People buy horse power and drive torque...
People buy GH/$ and mine GH/w...
Now we just need a picture to go along with it.
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If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it. There was never anything there in the first place.
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cablepair (OP)
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October 17, 2012, 06:35:12 PM |
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Hello
Business trip lasted a little longer than expected. I am back in town now and working regular hours, going to start working on the backlog of emails and returning phone calls.
If you call me today and I don't answer it's likely I am too busy with something else or on the phone with someone else but please leave a message and I will call you back. I don't return calls for people who don't leave messages. PM's are last priority so if you need something right away its always better to call or email.
thanks
Tom
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Epoch
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 922
Merit: 1003
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October 17, 2012, 06:40:16 PM |
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...
Gh/$ is what will get people to buy more ASICs. Gh/W is what will keep people running them.
...
Good post and discussion. Although I currently have BFL FPGAs and have yet to pre-order a bASIC, I have deep respect for Tom and others (ngzhang with 'Avalon', for example. And BFL with their 'SC' lineup) who have taken this bold step into the ASIC world. Interesting times ahead, indeed. |
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davecoin
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October 17, 2012, 08:38:07 PM |
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Interesting times ahead, indeed.
Crazy to think that people will be mining with ASICS by the end of the year. |
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jborkl
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October 17, 2012, 09:45:15 PM |
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I have a technical question.
How many connections to the network are people getting on a node?
I am running about 170 average, but it varies greatly. 2 ip addresses
I am running a .conf file i put together to jumpstart the connections, but it is capping at about 85 per ip
any thoughts? what are people getting as a high connection count?
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flynn
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October 17, 2012, 09:49:49 PM |
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I have a technical question.
How many connections to the network are people getting on a node?
I am running about 170 average, but it varies greatly. 2 ip addresses
I am running a .conf file i put together to jumpstart the connections, but it is capping at about 85 per ip
any thoughts? what are people getting as a high connection count?
put this line in your bitcoin.conf file : maxconnections=16 And you'll get less connections. |
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jborkl
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October 17, 2012, 10:04:33 PM |
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tI don't want less
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cypherdoc
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
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October 17, 2012, 10:08:08 PM |
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I have a technical question.
How many connections to the network are people getting on a node?
I am running about 170 average, but it varies greatly. 2 ip addresses
I am running a .conf file i put together to jumpstart the connections, but it is capping at about 85 per ip
any thoughts? what are people getting as a high connection count?
how'd you get so many? i'm stuck at 8. |
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Cablez
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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October 17, 2012, 10:16:08 PM |
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I have a technical question.
How many connections to the network are people getting on a node?
I am running about 170 average, but it varies greatly. 2 ip addresses
I am running a .conf file i put together to jumpstart the connections, but it is capping at about 85 per ip
any thoughts? what are people getting as a high connection count?
how'd you get so many? i'm stuck at 8. You have to port forward through your router to get more. I am more curious how to jumpstart the connections. Does this mean you are connecting to specific nodes? |
Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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jborkl
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October 17, 2012, 10:58:24 PM |
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I am port forwarded, yes I hand built a list of nodes. I use it to jump start a fast connection. It was a pain in the ass but it will work for anyone anywhere to give them roughly 100 connections.
All you have to do is put in your details in the file
Download the block chain on a new client very fast
If people want it I will be happy to post it. Simple, but a pain to put together
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99Percent
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 402
Merit: 100
🦜| Save Smart & Win 🦜
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October 17, 2012, 11:02:33 PM |
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Sorry to ask a stupid question but does port fowarding actually help when pool mining? I am using MPBM with X6500 connected to Bitminter pool.
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jborkl
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October 17, 2012, 11:19:25 PM |
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maxconnections=1000
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port=8333
(dont copy this- you need to port forward your router and allow 8333 on windows - not all of these work and I am not sure you need addnode,but i put it together and it will connect to about 100 clients withing say 2 minutes)(if you are solomining you need to add rpcuser/pass server=1- but I don't need to tell you that)
I also used -dns argument when starting bitcoin-qt (someone know if that helps?)
Blockchain Jumpstart v1.0
|
|
|
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Sitarow
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
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October 17, 2012, 11:24:08 PM |
|
maxconnections=1000
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connect=31.186.102.37
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connect=98.163.231.30
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connect=24.180.32.125
connect=76.15.104.9
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connect=50.53.152.59
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connect=166.70.157.194
connect=128.173.237.112
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connect=173.80.31.182
connect=184.167.174.84
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connect=86.28.151.185
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connect=173.11.125.162
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connect=65.50.82.92
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connect=92.204.36.56
connect=98.227.131.134
connect=71.207.245.238
connect=184.170.29.253
port=8333
(dont copy this- you need to port forward your router and allow 8333 on windows - not all of these work and I am not sure you need addnode,but i put it together and it will connect to about 100 clients withing say 2 minutes)(if you are solomining you need to add rpcuser/pass server=1- but I don't need to tell you that)
I also used -dns argument when starting bitcoin-qt (someone know if that helps?)
Blockchain Jumpstart v1.0
Your not kidding..... |
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abracadabra
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October 18, 2012, 12:04:46 AM |
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@ BFL_Josh (Inaba)
The biggest concern of mine is not electricity use if it remains within a certain range. What concerned me the most is what was the safe operating temperature for the mining hardware.
Winter is coming to the northern Hemisphere. So the heat put out by these devices will not be noticable if BFL or bASIC ships out in the next 2 to 3 months. But after Febuary, if one of these devices has to be cooled with Air Conditioning, then that would make a big dent in the profit margin. It would have been a deal breaker to add 1 to 2 kilowatts of power consumption during the following spring, summer and fall. As well as affect the reliability of the device.
Thank you for your recent answers on your mining device. That helped me understand that you have taken this into account and have designed safety features (well BFL_Engineer did at least) so that the device would not suffer from a heat related issue.
Those of us coming into summer will have this well tested before your summer rolls around (assuming delivery before your summer) People in Australia mine bitcoins? and have ordered ASICs??  What is this world coming to!!! |
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Poll
