Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[dooglus]

To put the last 2 days into perspective, here they are on the same chart as the crazy swings of December and January:

[ThickAsThieves]

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

[organofcorti]

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?

[ThickAsThieves]

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?

Will you do the math for me?   

[RationalSpeculator]

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?

lol

[RationalSpeculator]

I saw a bet being placed around 300btc:

http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

How can I find out if this bet won out or not?

[RationalSpeculator]

I saw a bet being placed around 300btc:

http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

How can I find out if this bet won out or not?

Got it, you have to look it up on satoshidice website, he lost.

Is there a way to see it simply on the blockchain if a bet won?

[ThickAsThieves]

I need to update this, as now I realize that Erik has total access to the daily "secret" and can win bets whenever he wants.

HOW TO RUN THE BEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income to bet, except now he uses the daily secret to win, syphoning all profits out.
OPTIONAL
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

[Zaih]

Looks like whale got cleaned. Grats SD 

[wtfvanity]

Wow. That's when the conspiracy theories start.

I'll go first. The "secret" is being handed out to buddies.

See how crazy the profit line was in December and January?  The last two days are nothing in comparison.  <1000 and <2000 are high variance bets.  When someone starts throwing large amounts of money at them, you're going to see some wiggliness on the profit line.

But if you want conspiracy theories, I heard SDICE recent changed sysadmins.  The previous one probably had access to the secrets.

Lol, nice. I'm of course just kidding. But if someone had access to the secret and a tiny bit of technical knowledge, such a scenario would be possible. Make it look like a few bets here and there lose, but clean out the house doing so.

I'll stop cluttering your thread though. I watch this daily. I promise I'm not trying to derail. Just a couple bad days for SD.

[dooglus]

Is there a way to see it simply on the blockchain if a bet won?

Yes.  Go to the transaction page on blockchain.info:

  http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

Find the output that's placing the bet:

  "1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 (SatoshiDICE 50% ) 330 BTC"

if you don't see (spent) or (unspent) on that line, look at the bottom of the page, and click "Advanced: Enable".  That will make the (spent) link appear.  Click it.  You'll see the transaction which spent the bet.  That will always be the payout transaction (win or lose).  In this case it's a lose:



In this case 1.65 BTC (0.5% of the bet) goes to the address that the bet came from, and the rest is split into two equal sized addresses that SDICE owns.  They often (always?) split losing bets up into two equal smaller amounts, probably so they have a good range of coins in their wallet for paying out winners of other bets.

[dooglus]

I need to update this, as now I realize that Erik has total access to the daily "secret" and can win bets whenever he wants.

I read your initial post like that anyway.  I thought when you said "except this time until he wins" that you realised whether he wins or not is entirely within his control.

Someone lost a *lot* overnight.  The whale(s) we've seen over the last couple of days have used just one or two addresses, like you see when people play using the blockchain.info wallet, but this new player uses a bunch of different addresses.  Could it be someone different?

Edit: also the recent whales have been mostly playing <1000, <2000 and <8000, whereas last night's player was playing <32k and <32768...

Edit2: I've made the bet addresses links to the full address to save people having to go to the official website.  Please don't click them if you're in the land of the free.

Thu May 23 02:14:35 2013 <32768 237435 f36b378162994003:0  1G6zuXEiKNu1rnnk5h1SeE3FPME2m5tBpb BET   105.00000000 LOSE  -104.47500000
Thu May 23 03:06:06 2013 <32000 237441 d30227881ecdbe26:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   200.00000000 WIN    200.76960000
Thu May 23 08:30:55 2013 <32000 237493 0f99fac570e7b365:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   120.00000000 LOSE  -119.40000000
Thu May 23 08:41:00 2013 <32000 237494 400974999dd29e81:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   211.00000000 LOSE  -209.94500000
Thu May 23 08:41:00 2013 <32000 237494 c5f11907e59ccf38:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75000000
Thu May 23 08:41:00 2013 <32000 237494 28768a533e910c41:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   120.00000000 WIN    120.46176000
Thu May 23 09:08:37 2013 <32000 237495 891b8a7ec7d035ca:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   243.00000000 LOSE  -241.78500000
Thu May 23 09:20:30 2013 <32768 237496 c1283848fbf21a1e:0  14Zc1LBE1Mx6UKX8BM2pAqAqGYkTB3bmKP BET   210.00000000 LOSE  -208.95000000
Thu May 23 09:40:37 2013 <32768 237498 7912da5317d3cf45:1  1NcXBirARnyFcNgNmqwLKQb6m4aMV4gCQK BET   330.00000000 LOSE  -328.35000000
Thu May 23 09:51:17 2013 <32768 237499 3d7c96200ceae2c0:0  1NcXBirARnyFcNgNmqwLKQb6m4aMV4gCQK BET   330.00000000 LOSE  -328.35000000
Thu May 23 10:01:31 2013 <32768 237500 78b3654c8d16ab5f:1   1iwXgk7r4xRBfhvzLiY9jG79yRVXbr91F BET   350.00000000 WIN    334.95000000
Thu May 23 10:18:24 2013 <32768 237501 d987f30fec5a2119:1  1Jtt8yiVpKZA1kTidiyBcvXW37iLvAaimY BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 10:48:14 2013 <32768 237505 b67bbe82c5b5baaa:0  163dMaru24bnBsJW3iAvqyBbCyDfyPJ7hx BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 10:50:52 2013 <32768 237507 dc6bcfc1acf10b8b:0   1iwXgk7r4xRBfhvzLiY9jG79yRVXbr91F BET   350.00000000 WIN    334.95000000
Thu May 23 11:06:16 2013 <32768 237510 7941cf526d1c9d90:0  1NcXBirARnyFcNgNmqwLKQb6m4aMV4gCQK BET   340.00000000 WIN    325.38000000
Thu May 23 11:10:59 2013 <32768 237511 45290511794ea9f8:0   1iwXgk7r4xRBfhvzLiY9jG79yRVXbr91F BET   350.00000000 WIN    334.95000000
Thu May 23 11:16:08 2013 <32768 237512 8af2e2739910e0d2:0  1NcXBirARnyFcNgNmqwLKQb6m4aMV4gCQK BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 11:27:33 2013 <32768 237514 56e2b151c5ec268f:0  1GfPFTLaMXFqzFSTEMw16yGdqKYHTHtFt9 BET   350.00000000 WIN    334.95000000
Thu May 23 11:29:41 2013 <32768 237515 33960674806dc6ca:1  1MtKSq4SdJbLGYSqRc2pwKE9yR7eF76GHr BET   300.00000000 LOSE  -298.50000000
Thu May 23 11:44:29 2013 <32768 237517 c91600ffd976c015:1   1iwXgk7r4xRBfhvzLiY9jG79yRVXbr91F BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 11:52:00 2013 <32768 237518 9cb31a7ecfd477c6:0  1GfPFTLaMXFqzFSTEMw16yGdqKYHTHtFt9 BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 12:08:07 2013 <32768 237519 0b303f11bd42c98b:0  14wrgvjcfvXFDobU94Tz5FK2Ww3mYw3bPv BET   350.00000000 LOSE  -348.25000000
Thu May 23 12:15:37 2013 <32768 237520 68cc2855c8899707:0  163dMaru24bnBsJW3iAvqyBbCyDfyPJ7hx BET   330.00000000 LOSE  -328.35000000

Total of 37 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-23 01:52pm (up to block 237576)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24079 |   21745 (0.97858) |     476 |    1858 |   25568.42 |   25141.96 |   241.35 |    426.45 |  98.332
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   149521 |  136024 (0.91575) |   12515 |     982 |   80479.42 |   79274.34 |     2.47 |   1205.08 |  98.503
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    96617 |   82091 (0.85684) |   13716 |     810 |   86286.04 |   85497.15 |   401.39 |    788.89 |  99.086
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   101778 |   80208 (0.79379) |   20836 |     734 |   69205.04 |   67518.02 |  1188.27 |   1687.01 |  97.562
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   440081 |  322627 (0.73481) |  116435 |    1019 |  317697.38 |  309902.67 |  6173.40 |   7794.71 |  97.546
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   792248 |  394966 (0.49971) |  395419 |    1863 |  733681.33 |  714572.18 |  6524.09 |  19109.15 |  97.395
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1314842 |  640638 (0.48800) |  672137 |    2067 |  942241.55 |  922863.30 |  2926.64 |  19378.24 |  97.943
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   309448 |  113435 (0.36744) |  195286 |     727 |  600398.32 |  591696.60 |  1013.84 |   8701.71 |  98.551
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   319126 |   77715 (0.24413) |  240613 |     798 |  387987.06 |  372955.39 |  2323.39 |  15031.66 |  96.126
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   133833 |   24444 (0.18358) |  108706 |     683 |  184020.66 |  185115.68 |  3315.45 |  -1095.02 | 100.595
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   235880 |   28901 (0.12286) |  206325 |     654 |  108470.55 |  108105.34 |   101.15 |    365.20 |  99.663
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    62881 |    5699 (0.09145) |   56619 |     563 |   17661.43 |   19387.91 |     7.71 |  -1726.47 | 109.775
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40554 |    2489 (0.06202) |   37641 |     424 |    8053.78 |    7965.01 |    31.47 |     88.76 |  98.898
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33083 |    1509 (0.04633) |   31063 |     511 |   10224.50 |   11232.74 |    25.47 |  -1008.24 | 109.861
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   104433 |    3173 (0.03052) |  100796 |     464 |   47860.23 |   44872.38 |     9.63 |   2987.84 |  93.757
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28012 |     643 (0.02329) |   26968 |     401 |    8128.43 |    8716.28 |    15.23 |   -587.85 | 107.232
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   162041 |    2484 (0.01539) |  158871 |     686 |   46051.78 |   42078.93 |     2.68 |   3972.85 |  91.373
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41617 |     328 (0.00804) |   40490 |     799 |    8531.36 |    6978.56 |    10.37 |   1552.80 |  81.799
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27953 |     117 (0.00425) |   27406 |     430 |    6121.99 |    8664.74 |    13.33 |  -2542.74 | 141.535
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23273 |      42 (0.00185) |   22700 |     531 |    2458.49 |    1583.29 |    48.59 |    875.19 |  64.401
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31633 |      35 (0.00113) |   31040 |     558 |    2214.09 |    1740.53 |   117.14 |    473.56 |  78.612
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31093 |      13 (0.00042) |   30622 |     458 |    1683.91 |    1831.04 |     1.61 |   -147.13 | 108.738
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25092 |       5 (0.00020) |   24592 |     495 |     891.22 |     606.69 |    22.22 |    284.53 |  68.074
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25902 |       5 (0.00020) |   25340 |     557 |     620.07 |     433.95 |    14.67 |    186.11 |  69.985
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15149 |       2 (0.00014) |   14600 |     547 |     218.55 |     320.42 |    18.53 |   -101.86 | 146.609
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13391 |       0 (0.00000) |   12793 |     598 |     186.43 |       0.52 |    30.29 |    185.90 |   0.280
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   148817 |       3 (0.00002) |  146205 |    2609 |    1892.31 |    3843.96 |   179.05 |  -1951.65 | 203.136
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4604906 | 1882291           | 2700083 |   22532 |  892288.38 |  876416.34 |   353.37 |  15872.03 |  98.221
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   127471 |   57050           |   70127 |     294 | 2806546.07 | 2746483.38 | 24406.21 |  60062.69 |  97.860
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4732377 | 1939341           | 2770210 |   22826 | 3698834.45 | 3622899.72 | 24759.59 |  75934.73 |  97.947
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75934.73513545 BTC (2.053%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3980.72317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71954.01196045 BTC (1.945%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.17926206 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71953.83269839 BTC (1.945%)
Profit This Month:            350.42435377 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15432555  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8693947  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6781.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3586.0  (52.9%)

[romerun]

I could say I'm more excited than betting it myself at this point.

[herzmeister]

I guess such vast swings are to be expected when whales do Martingale, right? With this strategy, you pile up, but eventually you'd lose all.

[RationalSpeculator]

Is there a way to see it simply on the blockchain if a bet won?

Yes.  Go to the transaction page on blockchain.info:

  http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

Find the output that's placing the bet:

  "1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 (SatoshiDICE 50% ) 330 BTC"

if you don't see (spent) or (unspent) on that line, look at the bottom of the page, and click "Advanced: Enable".  That will make the (spent) link appear.  Click it.  You'll see the transaction which spent the bet.  That will always be the payout transaction (win or lose).  In this case it's a lose:



In this case 1.65 BTC (0.5% of the bet) goes to the address that the bet came from, and the rest is split into two equal sized addresses that SDICE owns.  They often (always?) split losing bets up into two equal smaller amounts, probably so they have a good range of coins in their wallet for paying out winners of other bets.

Thank you so much Dooglus

Would have never found that

[dooglus]

Total of 40 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-24 06:28pm (up to block 237780)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24114 |   21777 (0.97857) |     477 |    1860 |   25580.84 |   25153.33 |   241.36 |    427.51 |  98.329
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   150733 |  137134 (0.91577) |   12614 |     985 |   80739.68 |   79536.76 |     2.49 |   1202.92 |  98.510
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    97010 |   82424 (0.85682) |   13774 |     812 |   86366.14 |   85575.03 |   401.40 |    791.10 |  99.084
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   102596 |   80856 (0.79380) |   21004 |     736 |   69486.85 |   67795.67 |  1188.28 |   1691.17 |  97.566
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   443188 |  324905 (0.73480) |  117261 |    1022 |  318422.16 |  310634.03 |  6173.42 |   7788.13 |  97.554
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   795808 |  396767 (0.49975) |  397171 |    1870 |  735230.37 |  716180.49 |  6524.12 |  19049.87 |  97.409
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1318152 |  642279 (0.48802) |  673802 |    2071 |  943307.22 |  923857.23 |  2926.65 |  19449.99 |  97.938
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   310130 |  113691 (0.36746) |  195710 |     729 |  600475.19 |  591777.04 |  1013.85 |   8698.15 |  98.551
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   320736 |   78122 (0.24418) |  241813 |     801 |  388161.31 |  373123.04 |  2323.40 |  15038.26 |  96.126
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   134179 |   24514 (0.18363) |  108980 |     685 |  184043.52 |  185153.04 |  3315.47 |  -1109.52 | 100.603
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   236661 |   28986 (0.12282) |  207020 |     655 |  108573.76 |  108214.25 |   101.15 |    359.51 |  99.669
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    63014 |    5715 (0.09151) |   56735 |     564 |   17694.35 |   19423.73 |     7.71 |  -1729.38 | 109.774
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40613 |    2494 (0.06206) |   37695 |     424 |    8056.11 |    7969.49 |    31.47 |     86.61 |  98.925
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33109 |    1510 (0.04632) |   31086 |     513 |   10225.41 |   11232.96 |    25.48 |  -1007.54 | 109.853
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   104744 |    3177 (0.03047) |  101101 |     466 |   47872.20 |   44876.69 |     9.64 |   2995.50 |  93.743
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28047 |     647 (0.02340) |   26997 |     403 |    8129.01 |    8721.96 |    15.24 |   -592.94 | 107.294
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   162428 |    2490 (0.01540) |  159250 |     688 |   46070.18 |   42097.57 |     2.68 |   3972.60 |  91.377
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41670 |     328 (0.00803) |   40543 |     799 |    8534.31 |    6978.57 |    10.37 |   1555.73 |  81.771
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27976 |     117 (0.00425) |   27429 |     430 |    6124.88 |    8664.76 |    13.33 |  -2539.87 | 141.468
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23360 |      43 (0.00188) |   22784 |     533 |    2460.18 |    1598.29 |    48.59 |    861.89 |  64.966
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31642 |      35 (0.00113) |   31049 |     558 |    2214.41 |    1740.53 |   117.14 |    473.87 |  78.600
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31135 |      13 (0.00042) |   30663 |     459 |    1684.52 |    1831.04 |     1.61 |   -146.51 | 108.698
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25120 |       5 (0.00020) |   24619 |     496 |     891.55 |     606.69 |    22.22 |    284.86 |  68.049
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25915 |       5 (0.00020) |   25353 |     557 |     620.21 |     433.95 |    14.67 |    186.25 |  69.969
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15164 |       2 (0.00014) |   14614 |     548 |     218.69 |     320.42 |    18.54 |   -101.72 | 146.515
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13418 |       0 (0.00000) |   12819 |     599 |     187.05 |       0.52 |    30.30 |    186.53 |   0.281
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   149448 |       3 (0.00002) |  146831 |    2614 |    1903.13 |    3844.02 |   179.31 |  -1940.88 | 201.983
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4622463 | 1890888           | 2708992 |   22583 |  894903.50 |  878987.66 |   353.79 |  15915.83 |  98.222
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   127647 |   57151           |   70202 |     294 | 2808369.89 | 2748353.60 | 24406.21 |  60016.28 |  97.863
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                                |  4750110 | 1948039           | 2779194 |   22877 | 3703273.39 | 3627341.26 | 24760.00 |  75932.12 |  97.950
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75932.12920749 BTC (2.050%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3999.19257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71932.93663249 BTC (1.942%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.45475716 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71930.48187533 BTC (1.942%)
Profit This Month:            327.07353071 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15500399  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8727207  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6812.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3599.6  (52.8%)

[dooglus]

Thanks, whoever it was, for the tip. 

Total of 27 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-25 12:44pm (up to block 237899)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24130 |   21791 (0.97854) |     478 |    1861 |   25626.17 |   25198.81 |   241.36 |    427.36 |  98.332
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   151205 |  137556 (0.91572) |   12661 |     988 |   80857.83 |   79645.38 |     2.49 |   1212.44 |  98.501
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    97435 |   82781 (0.85680) |   13836 |     818 |   86441.21 |   85629.56 |   401.42 |    811.64 |  99.061
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   103343 |   81454 (0.79384) |   21153 |     736 |   69682.28 |   67971.90 |  1188.28 |   1710.37 |  97.545
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   446071 |  327059 (0.73488) |  117989 |    1023 |  318778.40 |  311000.87 |  6173.43 |   7777.53 |  97.560
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   797801 |  397769 (0.49975) |  398160 |    1872 |  736224.20 |  717214.77 |  6524.13 |  19009.42 |  97.418
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1319871 |  643095 (0.48801) |  674703 |    2073 |  944122.97 |  924419.80 |  2926.66 |  19703.16 |  97.913
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   310592 |  113849 (0.36742) |  196013 |     730 |  600625.80 |  592004.97 |  1013.86 |   8620.82 |  98.565
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   321734 |   78356 (0.24415) |  242577 |     801 |  388326.14 |  373291.54 |  2323.40 |  15034.60 |  96.128
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   134405 |   24550 (0.18359) |  109169 |     686 |  184091.19 |  185178.36 |  3315.47 |  -1087.17 | 100.591
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   237226 |   29065 (0.12286) |  207504 |     657 |  108709.55 |  108415.33 |   101.16 |    294.22 |  99.729
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    63076 |    5722 (0.09154) |   56789 |     565 |   17697.49 |   19424.67 |     7.71 |  -1727.17 | 109.759
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40633 |    2496 (0.06208) |   37713 |     424 |    8063.23 |    7985.68 |    31.47 |     77.54 |  99.038
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33123 |    1512 (0.04637) |   31097 |     514 |   10226.39 |   11233.39 |    25.48 |  -1007.00 | 109.847
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   104939 |    3181 (0.03045) |  101292 |     466 |   47878.61 |   44878.11 |     9.64 |   3000.50 |  93.733
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28162 |     649 (0.02338) |   27110 |     403 |    8131.63 |    8723.56 |    15.24 |   -591.93 | 107.279
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   162764 |    2497 (0.01541) |  159577 |     690 |   46089.30 |   42123.25 |     2.69 |   3966.04 |  91.395
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41722 |     328 (0.00802) |   40595 |     799 |    8536.14 |    6978.58 |    10.37 |   1557.56 |  81.753
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27990 |     117 (0.00425) |   27443 |     430 |    6126.11 |    8664.76 |    13.33 |  -2538.65 | 141.440
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23378 |      43 (0.00188) |   22802 |     533 |    2460.53 |    1598.30 |    48.59 |    862.23 |  64.957
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31648 |      35 (0.00113) |   31054 |     559 |    2214.52 |    1740.53 |   117.14 |    473.98 |  78.596
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31148 |      13 (0.00042) |   30675 |     460 |    1684.96 |    1831.04 |     1.61 |   -146.07 | 108.670
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25128 |       5 (0.00020) |   24625 |     498 |     891.75 |     606.69 |    22.23 |    285.06 |  68.034
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25925 |       5 (0.00020) |   25363 |     557 |     620.83 |     433.95 |    14.67 |    186.87 |  69.899
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15182 |       2 (0.00014) |   14630 |     550 |     218.96 |     320.42 |    18.54 |   -101.45 | 146.335
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13430 |       0 (0.00000) |   12831 |     599 |     187.64 |       0.52 |    30.30 |    187.11 |   0.282
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   149687 |       3 (0.00002) |  147067 |    2617 |    1909.02 |    3844.05 |   179.40 |  -1935.02 | 201.362
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4633946 | 1896703           | 2714628 |   22615 |  896395.43 |  880476.70 |   353.99 |  15918.72 |  98.224
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   127802 |   57230           |   70278 |     294 | 2810027.54 | 2749882.23 | 24406.21 |  60145.31 |  97.860
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4761748 | 1953933           | 2784906 |   22909 | 3706422.98 | 3630358.93 | 24760.20 |  76064.04 |  97.948
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      76064.04576675 BTC (2.052%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4011.31157500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       72052.73419175 BTC (1.944%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.10983528 BTC
Final SD Profit:            72052.84402703 BTC (1.944%)
Profit This Month:            449.43568241 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15538442  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8749169  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6829.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3608.6  (52.8%)

[dooglus]

Site not working for 9 hours? btc sent but did not return, nor the Commission no gain!

See this post:

Hey all,

Site processing was down temporarily. All is well, site is back up now, and bets are clearing through. It's great to see so many people using the new live chat and support feature!

[Zaih]

It's funny how expected profit (Well, volume) has increased since the blocking of SD in the US. You'd really think it'd drop substantially.

[dooglus]

It's funny how expected profit (Well, volume) has increased since the blocking of SD in the US. You'd really think it'd drop substantially.

SatoshiDice.com is currently refusing to show me the betting addresses, saying that I'm in the USA or other restricted area.  I'm in Canada.  I don't know if they're deliberately blocking Canada now as well, or if that's an error.

Either way, http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php still works for me, and shows all the info I need to continue playing.

Edit: ... and to address your point...  SD volume is typically made up of hundreds of small players and one or two big ones.  The small players together don't compare to a single big player, so even if you lose half of them it has little effect on the expected profit so long as the big player doesn't go away.  This is especially true when you have a max bet of 500 BTC.  Very few people are going to be playing at that level, so the odd person who does becomes almost all of your business, by volume.