dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 25, 2012, 03:19:18 PM |
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I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed, but SD seems to have lowered their maximum bets for almost all of the games. For example, the "less then 16000" game used to have a max of 219.xxx coins. The other day, it was down to 191.xxx and now it's sitting at 123.4062.
I'm wondering though, by doing this, do they also limit their earning ability for whales who come in and lose on large bets? Is this move to lower maximum bets a recognition that their "house edge" is not wide enough to handle large bets?
I think their maximum bet was too high on some bets, and too low on others. Their risk of ruin is probably still too high (depending on how deep Erik's pockets are, of course).
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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jamesg
VIP
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 25, 2012, 03:24:03 PM |
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I think their maximum bet was too high on some bets, and too low on others. Their risk of ruin is probably still too high (depending on how deep Erik's pockets are, of course).
Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.
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Come-from-Beyond
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 25, 2012, 03:36:11 PM |
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SD Profit before fees: 11627.00933201 BTC (1.139%)
If u was running SD I would be making some big winning bets time to time (it's easy, coz I know the secret). Just for PR. So, real profit could be higher.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 26, 2012, 05:05:03 PM |
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Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.
What aren't you telling us? You somehow knew about this "slide" before I published stats about it. Are you in some way responsible? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Anyway, the slide contines: Results: 2012-Oct-26 09:43am (up to block 205072)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 30583 | 0 (0.00000) | 30186 | 397 | 222.24 | 0.01 | 34.47 | 222.23 | 0.009 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2054 | 0 (0.00000) | 1972 | 82 | 28.99 | 0.00 | 9.64 | 28.98 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3160 | 0 (0.00000) | 3120 | 40 | 40.57 | 0.03 | 5.34 | 40.54 | 0.078 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3878 | 2 (0.00052) | 3832 | 44 | 71.57 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.50 | 22.450 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5385 | 1 (0.00019) | 5345 | 39 | 158.58 | 4.28 | 8.40 | 154.29 | 2.704 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7006 | 3 (0.00043) | 6991 | 12 | 459.44 | 303.34 | 1.29 | 156.09 | 66.025 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8743 | 8 (0.00092) | 8713 | 22 | 726.96 | 124.58 | 55.64 | 602.38 | 17.137 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10817 | 19 (0.00177) | 10742 | 56 | 1638.24 | 1274.70 | 44.25 | 363.53 | 77.809 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12042 | 55 (0.00457) | 11973 | 14 | 1835.96 | 2621.90 | 13.11 | -785.93 | 142.808 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18671 | 143 (0.00766) | 18517 | 11 | 3539.09 | 3432.81 | 9.35 | 106.27 | 96.997 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 39033 | 595 (0.01525) | 38425 | 13 | 9914.92 | 9616.09 | 1.80 | 298.82 | 96.986 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17472 | 415 (0.02376) | 17049 | 8 | 5646.96 | 5967.16 | 15.00 | -320.19 | 105.670 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25158 | 799 (0.03176) | 24355 | 4 | 6394.99 | 6112.24 | 9.24 | 282.75 | 95.578 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 17918 | 833 (0.04651) | 17077 | 8 | 7744.24 | 9105.92 | 24.99 | -1361.67 | 117.583 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17743 | 1111 (0.06263) | 16628 | 4 | 5109.42 | 4735.14 | 31.20 | 374.28 | 92.675 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 23791 | 2228 (0.09372) | 21544 | 19 | 10970.32 | 11047.27 | 7.01 | -76.94 | 100.701 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 96094 | 11819 (0.12302) | 84252 | 23 | 13011.25 | 11442.91 | 0.00 | 1568.33 | 87.946 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24105 | 4494 (0.18655) | 19596 | 15 | 9346.49 | 9591.94 | 14.50 | -245.44 | 102.626 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 107575 | 26250 (0.24407) | 81300 | 25 | 64631.65 | 63730.37 | 566.79 | 901.28 | 98.606 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 75930 | 27918 (0.36792) | 47963 | 49 | 49897.67 | 50959.19 | 212.64 | -1061.51 | 102.127 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 640690 | 312948 (0.48880) | 327289 | 453 | 370151.60 | 366576.00 | 2673.41 | 3575.60 | 99.034 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 223124 | 111324 (0.49936) | 111611 | 189 | 213383.05 | 210328.92 | 1295.22 | 3054.12 | 98.569 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 168497 | 123967 (0.73607) | 44450 | 80 | 166184.69 | 164080.21 | 467.98 | 2104.47 | 98.734 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 16954 | 13485 (0.79595) | 3457 | 12 | 27816.64 | 27782.14 | 1187.00 | 34.50 | 99.876 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 15596 | 13354 (0.85751) | 2219 | 23 | 23453.91 | 23242.33 | 400.00 | 211.58 | 99.098 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7660 | 7013 (0.91637) | 640 | 7 | 17428.80 | 17247.27 | 0.00 | 181.53 | 98.958 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8212 | 7903 (0.98003) | 161 | 148 | 16787.56 | 16507.13 | 239.21 | 280.42 | 98.330 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1576098 | 640603 | 933913 | 1582 | 391275.39 | 383920.77 | 153.90 | 7354.62 | 98.120 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 51793 | 26084 | 25494 | 215 | 635320.53 | 631929.29 | 7179.35 | 3391.24 | 99.466 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1627891 | 666687 | 959407 | 1797 | 1026595.93 | 1015850.06 | 7333.26 | 10745.86 | 98.953 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10745.86837858 BTC (1.047%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 821.42437500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9924.44400358 BTC (0.967%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5476197 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3022213 (55.2%) Blockchain MB: 2302.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1234.5 (53.6%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F173MX.png&t=665&c=6P04zDWW4k1-Pg)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 26, 2012, 05:06:47 PM |
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SD Profit before fees: 11627.00933201 BTC (1.139%)
If u was running SD I would be making some big winning bets time to time (it's easy, coz I know the secret). Just for PR. So, real profit could be higher. If I was running SD you wouldn't know the secret. Don't forget that it's not only good for PR to have more winning bets. It's also good for reducing apparent profits and hence dividends. Not that I'm accusing anyone of cheating.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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jamesg
VIP
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 26, 2012, 05:35:01 PM |
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Looks like they've taken a big slide backwards in the last couple of days. Lady luck is not on their side right now.
What aren't you telling us? You somehow knew about this "slide" before I published stats about it. Are you in some way responsible? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) I lend a helping hand every now and then.... ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Also looks like the link to the image is not working at the moment.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 27, 2012, 02:24:15 AM |
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Also looks like the link to the image is not working at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/173MX.png ? It's working for me. Maybe try clearing your cache or something?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 27, 2012, 05:22:24 PM |
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Results: 2012-Oct-27 10:01am (up to block 205258)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 30848 | 0 (0.00000) | 30447 | 401 | 222.94 | 0.01 | 34.88 | 222.92 | 0.009 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2059 | 0 (0.00000) | 1977 | 82 | 29.03 | 0.00 | 9.64 | 29.03 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3167 | 0 (0.00000) | 3127 | 40 | 40.59 | 0.03 | 5.34 | 40.56 | 0.077 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3884 | 2 (0.00052) | 3838 | 44 | 71.59 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.52 | 22.444 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5391 | 1 (0.00019) | 5351 | 39 | 158.80 | 4.28 | 8.40 | 154.52 | 2.700 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7013 | 3 (0.00043) | 6998 | 12 | 460.46 | 303.35 | 1.29 | 157.11 | 65.879 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8757 | 8 (0.00092) | 8727 | 22 | 731.01 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 606.41 | 17.045 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10831 | 19 (0.00176) | 10756 | 56 | 1640.06 | 1274.71 | 44.25 | 365.34 | 77.724 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12057 | 55 (0.00457) | 11988 | 14 | 1836.04 | 2621.90 | 13.11 | -785.85 | 142.802 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18692 | 143 (0.00765) | 18538 | 11 | 3541.65 | 3432.82 | 9.35 | 108.82 | 96.927 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 39307 | 604 (0.01537) | 38690 | 13 | 9924.86 | 9616.69 | 1.80 | 308.17 | 96.895 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17487 | 416 (0.02380) | 17063 | 8 | 5651.54 | 5967.39 | 15.00 | -315.84 | 105.589 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25182 | 800 (0.03177) | 24378 | 4 | 6395.42 | 6112.40 | 9.24 | 283.02 | 95.575 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 17939 | 833 (0.04646) | 17098 | 8 | 7747.80 | 9105.93 | 24.99 | -1358.13 | 117.529 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17758 | 1111 (0.06258) | 16643 | 4 | 5109.96 | 4735.14 | 31.20 | 374.81 | 92.665 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 23812 | 2230 (0.09373) | 21563 | 19 | 10978.33 | 11058.07 | 7.01 | -79.74 | 100.726 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 96401 | 11858 (0.12304) | 84519 | 24 | 13030.73 | 11463.69 | 0.00 | 1567.03 | 87.974 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24119 | 4496 (0.18653) | 19607 | 16 | 9360.70 | 9645.31 | 14.50 | -284.60 | 103.040 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 108040 | 26371 (0.24414) | 81644 | 25 | 64702.77 | 63775.94 | 566.79 | 926.82 | 98.568 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 76187 | 28016 (0.36796) | 48122 | 49 | 50272.10 | 51427.63 | 212.64 | -1155.52 | 102.299 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 641385 | 313291 (0.48881) | 327639 | 455 | 370602.20 | 367169.88 | 2673.41 | 3432.31 | 99.074 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 223738 | 111637 (0.49938) | 111912 | 189 | 214261.60 | 211260.08 | 1295.22 | 3001.52 | 98.599 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 168993 | 124334 (0.73608) | 44579 | 80 | 166363.13 | 164277.39 | 467.98 | 2085.73 | 98.746 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17048 | 13560 (0.79596) | 3476 | 12 | 27910.55 | 27853.28 | 1187.00 | 57.26 | 99.795 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 15660 | 13403 (0.85713) | 2234 | 23 | 23490.04 | 23270.09 | 400.00 | 219.95 | 99.064 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7687 | 7038 (0.91641) | 642 | 7 | 18151.52 | 18018.00 | 0.00 | 133.52 | 99.264 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8238 | 7928 (0.97998) | 162 | 148 | 16797.36 | 16515.17 | 239.21 | 282.19 | 98.320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1579774 | 642009 | 936175 | 1590 | 392145.00 | 384758.00 | 154.31 | 7386.99 | 98.116 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 51906 | 26148 | 25543 | 215 | 637337.90 | 634291.96 | 7179.35 | 3045.94 | 99.522 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1631680 | 668157 | 961718 | 1805 | 1029482.91 | 1019049.97 | 7333.67 | 10432.93 | 98.987 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10432.93825297 BTC (1.013%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 825.21847500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9607.71977797 BTC (0.933%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5495130 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3028395 (55.1%) Blockchain MB: 2311.0 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1237.2 (53.5%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FSYKZf.png&t=665&c=wUrxvjHmYBg4qw)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 28, 2012, 05:39:34 PM |
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Results: 2012-Oct-28 10:13am (up to block 205426)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 30970 | 0 (0.00000) | 30567 | 403 | 223.30 | 0.01 | 34.95 | 223.28 | 0.009 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2073 | 0 (0.00000) | 1990 | 83 | 29.17 | 0.00 | 10.24 | 29.17 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3180 | 0 (0.00000) | 3140 | 40 | 40.63 | 0.03 | 5.34 | 40.60 | 0.077 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3904 | 2 (0.00052) | 3858 | 44 | 71.67 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.61 | 22.416 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5405 | 1 (0.00019) | 5365 | 39 | 159.24 | 4.28 | 8.40 | 154.95 | 2.693 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7032 | 3 (0.00043) | 7017 | 12 | 461.70 | 303.35 | 1.29 | 158.35 | 65.703 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8790 | 8 (0.00091) | 8759 | 23 | 731.18 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 606.58 | 17.041 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10873 | 19 (0.00176) | 10798 | 56 | 1640.40 | 1274.71 | 44.25 | 365.68 | 77.707 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12086 | 55 (0.00456) | 12017 | 14 | 1836.71 | 2621.90 | 13.11 | -785.18 | 142.750 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18732 | 143 (0.00764) | 18578 | 11 | 3544.01 | 3432.83 | 9.35 | 111.18 | 96.863 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 39418 | 605 (0.01535) | 38800 | 13 | 9936.74 | 9623.12 | 1.80 | 313.62 | 96.844 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17503 | 417 (0.02384) | 17078 | 8 | 5651.67 | 5967.56 | 15.00 | -315.89 | 105.589 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25195 | 801 (0.03180) | 24390 | 4 | 6395.53 | 6112.52 | 9.24 | 283.00 | 95.575 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 17956 | 834 (0.04647) | 17114 | 8 | 7750.86 | 9106.03 | 24.99 | -1355.16 | 117.484 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17788 | 1114 (0.06264) | 16670 | 4 | 5124.24 | 4751.43 | 31.20 | 372.80 | 92.725 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 23869 | 2237 (0.09379) | 21613 | 19 | 10996.11 | 11072.27 | 7.01 | -76.16 | 100.693 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 96632 | 11896 (0.12314) | 84712 | 24 | 13055.04 | 11487.27 | 0.00 | 1567.76 | 87.991 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24153 | 4501 (0.18648) | 19636 | 16 | 9370.32 | 9651.06 | 14.50 | -280.73 | 102.996 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 108428 | 26469 (0.24417) | 81933 | 26 | 64792.16 | 63869.99 | 566.79 | 922.17 | 98.577 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 76335 | 28067 (0.36792) | 48219 | 49 | 50475.85 | 51520.60 | 212.64 | -1044.74 | 102.070 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 641842 | 313526 (0.48882) | 327861 | 455 | 371036.02 | 367716.91 | 2673.41 | 3319.11 | 99.105 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 224540 | 112049 (0.49944) | 112301 | 190 | 214936.86 | 211963.78 | 1295.22 | 2973.08 | 98.617 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 169224 | 124513 (0.73614) | 44631 | 80 | 166553.44 | 164448.07 | 467.98 | 2105.37 | 98.736 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17123 | 13620 (0.79603) | 3490 | 13 | 28020.35 | 27981.74 | 1187.00 | 38.61 | 99.862 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 15776 | 13500 (0.85698) | 2253 | 23 | 25819.54 | 25580.45 | 400.00 | 239.09 | 99.074 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7712 | 7062 (0.91655) | 643 | 7 | 19470.33 | 19428.37 | 0.00 | 41.96 | 99.784 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8245 | 7935 (0.97999) | 162 | 148 | 17047.82 | 16766.73 | 239.21 | 281.08 | 98.351 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1582762 | 643153 | 938012 | 1597 | 392953.11 | 385486.12 | 154.98 | 7466.98 | 98.100 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 52022 | 26224 | 25583 | 215 | 642217.94 | 639339.66 | 7179.35 | 2878.27 | 99.552 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1634784 | 669377 | 963595 | 1812 | 1035171.05 | 1024825.79 | 7334.34 | 10345.26 | 99.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10345.26829890 BTC (0.999%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 828.32427500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9516.94402390 BTC (0.919%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5512415 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3034100 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2319.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1239.7 (53.5%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgWyaq.png&t=665&c=gmTRz5rX5_8XBA)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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October 29, 2012, 04:21:36 PM |
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Results: 2012-Oct-29 09:16am (up to block 205581)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 31429 | 0 (0.00000) | 30999 | 430 | 224.57 | 0.01 | 36.80 | 224.56 | 0.009 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2090 | 0 (0.00000) | 2006 | 84 | 29.36 | 0.00 | 10.29 | 29.36 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3188 | 0 (0.00000) | 3147 | 41 | 40.69 | 0.03 | 5.45 | 40.66 | 0.077 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3912 | 2 (0.00052) | 3866 | 44 | 71.74 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.67 | 22.396 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5432 | 1 (0.00019) | 5392 | 39 | 159.72 | 4.29 | 8.40 | 155.43 | 2.686 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7045 | 3 (0.00043) | 7030 | 12 | 462.81 | 303.36 | 1.29 | 159.45 | 65.547 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8823 | 8 (0.00091) | 8792 | 23 | 731.62 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 607.02 | 17.031 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10897 | 19 (0.00175) | 10821 | 57 | 1648.72 | 1274.75 | 48.25 | 373.97 | 77.317 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12102 | 55 (0.00455) | 12033 | 14 | 1837.23 | 2621.90 | 13.11 | -784.66 | 142.709 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18748 | 143 (0.00763) | 18594 | 11 | 3544.18 | 3432.83 | 9.35 | 111.34 | 96.858 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 39469 | 605 (0.01533) | 38851 | 13 | 9939.01 | 9623.12 | 1.80 | 315.88 | 96.822 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17515 | 417 (0.02382) | 17090 | 8 | 5651.74 | 5967.56 | 15.00 | -315.82 | 105.588 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25206 | 801 (0.03178) | 24401 | 4 | 6395.89 | 6112.52 | 9.24 | 283.36 | 95.570 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 17964 | 834 (0.04645) | 17122 | 8 | 7750.92 | 9106.03 | 24.99 | -1355.11 | 117.483 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17803 | 1114 (0.06259) | 16685 | 4 | 5125.00 | 4751.44 | 31.20 | 373.56 | 92.711 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 23925 | 2239 (0.09366) | 21667 | 19 | 11001.80 | 11074.09 | 7.01 | -72.28 | 100.657 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 96797 | 11918 (0.12315) | 84855 | 24 | 13157.79 | 11667.72 | 0.00 | 1490.06 | 88.675 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24188 | 4505 (0.18637) | 19667 | 16 | 9372.16 | 9651.15 | 14.50 | -278.98 | 102.977 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 108802 | 26581 (0.24436) | 82195 | 26 | 64898.73 | 64008.69 | 566.79 | 890.03 | 98.629 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 76550 | 28152 (0.36800) | 48349 | 49 | 50683.96 | 51751.88 | 212.64 | -1067.91 | 102.107 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 642317 | 313774 (0.48885) | 328088 | 455 | 371822.60 | 368707.56 | 2673.41 | 3115.04 | 99.162 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 225549 | 112581 (0.49957) | 112776 | 192 | 216714.47 | 213993.68 | 1709.77 | 2720.78 | 98.745 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 169582 | 124782 (0.73617) | 44719 | 81 | 166965.43 | 164921.19 | 704.58 | 2044.23 | 98.776 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17219 | 13693 (0.79583) | 3513 | 13 | 28236.96 | 28241.49 | 1187.00 | -4.52 | 100.016 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 15855 | 13569 (0.85706) | 2263 | 23 | 25868.90 | 25618.92 | 400.00 | 249.98 | 99.034 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7729 | 7076 (0.91634) | 646 | 7 | 19506.62 | 19458.92 | 0.00 | 47.70 | 99.755 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8260 | 7949 (0.97991) | 163 | 148 | 17056.12 | 16772.22 | 239.21 | 283.90 | 98.335 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1586192 | 644491 | 940075 | 1626 | 393796.61 | 386286.60 | 157.00 | 7510.01 | 98.093 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 52204 | 26330 | 25655 | 219 | 645102.29 | 642919.52 | 7834.50 | 2182.76 | 99.662 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1638396 | 670821 | 965730 | 1845 | 1038898.91 | 1029206.12 | 7991.51 | 9692.78 | 99.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 9692.78166134 BTC (0.933%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 831.95257500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 8860.82908634 BTC (0.853%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5529582 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3040872 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2328.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1242.5 (53.4%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FbXVWg.png&t=665&c=NdlleVMdFZmR1Q)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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October 29, 2012, 04:23:41 PM |
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This is starting to look weird. The slide just isn't stopping. What's going on here?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Come-from-Beyond
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Newbie
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October 29, 2012, 04:29:11 PM |
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This is starting to look weird. The slide just isn't stopping. What's going on here?
Maybe PR. Maybe bad karma. Maybe just fluctuation. Or maybe u was right regarding dividends.
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kidgorgeous
Member
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Merit: 10
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October 29, 2012, 07:17:30 PM |
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If you look at the difference between small bets and big bets, the small bets aren't winning or losing particularly well but it just seems that theres a few bigger bets that are just killing the house. If you think about it, it doesn't take alot of big winning bets to hurt the house.
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1KHxCRniFNmS7ChiPqaewmokuCABk2PRQn
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Herbert
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 30, 2012, 11:53:40 AM |
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This is starting to look weird. The slide just isn't stopping. What's going on here?
Indeed this looks fishy. Given the amount of bets I am tempted to not accept this as pure coincidence/bad luck.
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organofcorti
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Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
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October 30, 2012, 12:01:23 PM Last edit: October 31, 2012, 10:47:19 PM by organofcorti |
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This is starting to look weird. The slide just isn't stopping. What's going on here?
I looks like a random walk with drift to me. You could use the Augmented Dickey Fuller test to test if the change is likely give a null hypothesis that nothing abnormal has occurred. Or I can do it if I have time.
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Meni Rosenfeld
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October 30, 2012, 02:21:52 PM |
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I did a few hasty calculations, with lots of assumptions and room for errors along the way, but:
I took your table for Oct 29 stats and subtracted from it the Oct 20 stats, to get the stats for the period in question.
For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.
From this I calculated the mean and variance of the profit from each type, summed over all types and compared it to the actual total profit.
I got a result which is 12.5 standard deviations below the mean (and we're talking about an approximately normal distribution).
Now, of course picking the most suspicious-looking 9-day period among half a year of statistics would skew the results. But still it would only be reasonable to get maybe 4 or 5 sd difference. 12.5 is just too much, and warrants further investigation.
Again, I could be wrong about the whole thing but at least it indicates someone needs to do a more careful analysis. A better analysis can be obtained with a table of the individual bets.
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Come-from-Beyond
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October 30, 2012, 02:46:32 PM |
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Now, of course picking the most suspicious-looking 9-day period among half a year of statistics would skew the results. But still it would only be reasonable to get maybe 4 or 5 sd difference. 12.5 is just too much, and warrants further investigation.
Max bets where changed recently. This could change the pattern of bets and winnings.
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Herbert
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
October 30, 2012, 04:27:34 PM |
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Secret leaked?
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dooglus
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October 30, 2012, 06:35:06 PM |
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For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.
I don't know how important this is, but I doubt that's at all close to the actual distribution. I would expect tiny bets to be the vast majority of bets placed. I suspect that there are thousands of sub-1 BTC bets, and very few larger bets. I will make a text file available detailing all the bets processed in the last couple of weeks, so that you can make a proper analysis. But first I have to go light some fires and let a little dog out to pee. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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October 30, 2012, 06:36:54 PM |
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Results: 2012-Oct-30 10:58am (up to block 205738)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 31845 | 0 (0.00000) | 31414 | 431 | 226.76 | 0.01 | 36.82 | 226.74 | 0.009 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2093 | 0 (0.00000) | 2009 | 84 | 29.37 | 0.00 | 10.29 | 29.37 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3192 | 0 (0.00000) | 3151 | 41 | 40.70 | 0.03 | 5.45 | 40.67 | 0.077 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3918 | 2 (0.00052) | 3872 | 44 | 71.75 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.68 | 22.393 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5441 | 1 (0.00019) | 5401 | 39 | 159.98 | 4.29 | 8.40 | 155.69 | 2.682 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7057 | 3 (0.00043) | 7042 | 12 | 464.45 | 303.36 | 1.29 | 161.08 | 65.317 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8888 | 8 (0.00090) | 8857 | 23 | 736.57 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 611.97 | 16.916 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10911 | 19 (0.00175) | 10835 | 57 | 1653.16 | 1274.76 | 48.25 | 378.39 | 77.111 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12125 | 55 (0.00454) | 12056 | 14 | 1837.42 | 2621.90 | 13.11 | -784.47 | 142.694 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18847 | 143 (0.00759) | 18693 | 11 | 3545.36 | 3432.83 | 9.35 | 112.53 | 96.826 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 39924 | 610 (0.01528) | 39301 | 13 | 9978.69 | 9650.07 | 1.80 | 328.62 | 96.707 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17535 | 418 (0.02385) | 17109 | 8 | 5654.31 | 5969.28 | 15.00 | -314.96 | 105.570 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25239 | 803 (0.03182) | 24432 | 4 | 6402.66 | 6116.10 | 9.24 | 286.55 | 95.524 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 17976 | 835 (0.04647) | 17133 | 8 | 7757.95 | 9127.38 | 24.99 | -1369.43 | 117.652 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17851 | 1116 (0.06253) | 16731 | 4 | 5125.32 | 4751.48 | 31.20 | 373.83 | 92.706 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 23965 | 2243 (0.09367) | 21703 | 19 | 11016.96 | 11152.09 | 7.01 | -135.12 | 101.227 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 97261 | 11968 (0.12308) | 85269 | 24 | 13225.64 | 11725.18 | 0.00 | 1500.45 | 88.655 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24236 | 4514 (0.18637) | 19706 | 16 | 9383.85 | 9664.49 | 14.50 | -280.63 | 102.991 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 109717 | 26794 (0.24427) | 82897 | 26 | 65214.41 | 64342.94 | 566.79 | 871.47 | 98.664 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 77988 | 28677 (0.36794) | 49262 | 49 | 54512.85 | 55785.23 | 212.64 | -1272.37 | 102.334 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 643035 | 314131 (0.48886) | 328444 | 460 | 374595.21 | 371536.31 | 2673.41 | 3058.90 | 99.183 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 229582 | 114547 (0.49935) | 114843 | 192 | 219125.35 | 216348.79 | 1709.77 | 2776.55 | 98.733 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 170660 | 125592 (0.73627) | 44987 | 81 | 167267.34 | 165222.79 | 704.58 | 2044.55 | 98.778 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17385 | 13829 (0.79605) | 3543 | 13 | 28362.54 | 28372.86 | 1187.00 | -10.32 | 100.036 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16139 | 13821 (0.85759) | 2295 | 23 | 26514.22 | 26345.44 | 400.00 | 168.77 | 99.363 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7798 | 7143 (0.91683) | 648 | 7 | 19631.18 | 19592.08 | 0.00 | 39.10 | 99.801 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8289 | 7978 (0.97998) | 163 | 148 | 17910.32 | 17630.18 | 239.21 | 280.14 | 98.436 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1596110 | 648642 | 945836 | 1632 | 396027.19 | 388408.86 | 157.02 | 7618.33 | 98.076 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 52787 | 26608 | 25960 | 219 | 654417.26 | 652701.78 | 7834.50 | 1715.48 | 99.738 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1648897 | 675250 | 971796 | 1851 | 1050444.46 | 1041110.64 | 7991.53 | 9333.81 | 99.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 9333.81729799 BTC (0.889%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 842.47867500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 8491.33862299 BTC (0.808%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5561537 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3060185 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2342.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1250.5 (53.4%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCxt79.png&t=665&c=uJZAU6gtabUsPw)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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