nimda
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October 30, 2012, 06:50:52 PM |
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Wheee!
Honestly it looks like its in the realm of possibility to me. Compare it to the 11/08 jump.
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Meni Rosenfeld
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October 30, 2012, 07:09:59 PM |
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For each type of bet I calculated the average amount put in, and assumed the actual bets are distributed uniformly from 0 to twice the average.
I don't know how important this is, but I doubt that's at all close to the actual distribution. I would expect tiny bets to be the vast majority of bets placed. I suspect that there are thousands of sub-1 BTC bets, and very few larger bets. I will make a text file available detailing all the bets processed in the last couple of weeks, so that you can make a proper analysis. But first I have to go light some fires and let a little dog out to pee. It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue. Honestly it looks like its in the realm of possibility to me. Compare it to the 11/08 jump.
That's what I think too. I did those calculations in an attempt to demonstrate that this is indeed nothing to worry about (not the best way to do science, but my methodology was simple enough not to be influenced by my prejudice). Which is why I was a bit surprised by my result, but variance in the bet amounts may explain them away.
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dooglus
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October 30, 2012, 07:17:31 PM |
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It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.
What fields do you want to see per bet? block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return? Anything else?
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Meni Rosenfeld
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October 30, 2012, 07:19:06 PM |
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It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.
What fields do you want to see per bet? block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return? Anything else? These should be enough.
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dooglus
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October 30, 2012, 08:42:13 PM |
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It is indeed important. If we assume the extreme that all bets are either 0 or the max bet, the variance increases 100-fold which means that the result is only about 1.2 sd below the mean. A list of bets can resolve this particular issue.
What fields do you want to see per bet? block number, date, bet type, stake, result, return? Anything else? These should be enough. OK, I made a text file of the bets from the last 1500 blocks or so (since the decline started) here (both the same, the 2nd is gzip compressed) http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt (4955 KB) http://dooglus.rincevent.net/random/details.txt.gz (299 KB) In doing so, I noticed that the SD bottom line has dropped further since this morning's stats post. Now it's: SD Profit after fees: 8122.86383142 BTC (0.772%) Here's the first 7 lines from the file, where things started going downhill: 204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266 204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,6000,WIN,1.00000000,10.66502266 204245,Sat Oct 20 20:33:17 2012,12000,WIN,0.30000000,1.60007840 204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1000,WIN,2.00000000,127.93577200 204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,512,WIN,2.00000000,249.86550000 204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,1500,WIN,1.00000000,42.64659066 204246,Sat Oct 20 20:35:27 2012,32000,LOSE,0.50000000,0.00200000
That's block_number,time_and_date,target,result,stake,return So the first line is a "lessthan 6000" bet winning, and so is the 2nd line. 2 separate bets, both winning: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=0a4d8505e11b3af56f31016c8d738927a0a62aececc0b0e8c81dd8d471ef8f83http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=b6723d3c2227c288910088dff5f332fff675014b12e46dddb75278aa1efc8d03
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Meni Rosenfeld
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October 31, 2012, 12:32:45 PM |
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Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.
The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.
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dooglus
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October 31, 2012, 05:22:55 PM |
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Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.
The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.
It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events. You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction. All such bets get the same 'magic number'. I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations. If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which.
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dooglus
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October 31, 2012, 05:59:04 PM |
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Results: 2012-Oct-31 10:56am (up to block 205877)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 32390 | 0 (0.00000) | 31955 | 435 | 229.18 | 0.01 | 37.05 | 229.16 | 0.008 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2101 | 0 (0.00000) | 2015 | 86 | 29.39 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 29.39 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3210 | 0 (0.00000) | 3168 | 42 | 41.70 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 41.67 | 0.075 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3925 | 2 (0.00052) | 3879 | 44 | 71.75 | 16.06 | 5.65 | 55.69 | 22.391 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5448 | 1 (0.00018) | 5408 | 39 | 160.06 | 4.29 | 8.40 | 155.77 | 2.680 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7068 | 3 (0.00043) | 7053 | 12 | 464.66 | 303.36 | 1.29 | 161.29 | 65.287 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8929 | 8 (0.00090) | 8897 | 24 | 737.83 | 124.60 | 55.64 | 613.22 | 16.888 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10925 | 19 (0.00175) | 10849 | 57 | 1658.28 | 1274.79 | 48.25 | 383.49 | 76.874 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12459 | 55 (0.00442) | 12387 | 17 | 1840.81 | 2621.90 | 13.12 | -781.08 | 142.432 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 18926 | 143 (0.00756) | 18772 | 11 | 3548.87 | 3432.83 | 9.35 | 116.03 | 96.730 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40265 | 615 (0.01528) | 39637 | 13 | 10024.92 | 9652.85 | 1.80 | 372.07 | 96.289 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17552 | 418 (0.02383) | 17126 | 8 | 5680.16 | 5969.40 | 15.00 | -289.23 | 105.092 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25267 | 804 (0.03183) | 24459 | 4 | 6404.69 | 6116.42 | 9.24 | 288.26 | 95.499 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18013 | 835 (0.04638) | 17170 | 8 | 7762.14 | 9127.40 | 24.99 | -1365.25 | 117.589 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 17885 | 1116 (0.06241) | 16765 | 4 | 5129.26 | 4751.49 | 31.20 | 377.76 | 92.635 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24079 | 2256 (0.09377) | 21804 | 19 | 11072.34 | 11275.17 | 7.01 | -202.83 | 101.832 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 97633 | 12012 (0.12306) | 85597 | 24 | 13373.28 | 11887.83 | 0.00 | 1485.45 | 88.892 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24292 | 4527 (0.18649) | 19748 | 17 | 9412.69 | 9708.52 | 14.50 | -295.83 | 103.143 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 110685 | 27026 (0.24423) | 83633 | 26 | 65814.07 | 64973.82 | 566.79 | 840.25 | 98.723 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 78812 | 28984 (0.36799) | 49779 | 49 | 55512.94 | 56799.35 | 212.64 | -1286.41 | 102.317 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 643802 | 314481 (0.48882) | 328860 | 461 | 376146.46 | 373287.86 | 2923.41 | 2858.59 | 99.240 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 232858 | 116146 (0.49920) | 116520 | 192 | 221882.56 | 219108.13 | 1709.77 | 2774.42 | 98.750 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 171071 | 125890 (0.73624) | 45100 | 81 | 167442.96 | 165379.64 | 704.58 | 2063.31 | 98.768 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17441 | 13873 (0.79602) | 3555 | 13 | 28467.20 | 28490.24 | 1187.00 | -23.03 | 100.081 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16236 | 13903 (0.85752) | 2310 | 23 | 26834.11 | 26711.24 | 400.00 | 122.86 | 99.542 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 7917 | 7244 (0.91580) | 666 | 7 | 20225.02 | 20175.20 | 0.00 | 49.81 | 99.754 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8306 | 7995 (0.98002) | 163 | 148 | 17934.44 | 17654.39 | 239.21 | 280.04 | 98.439 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1604287 | 651548 | 951095 | 1644 | 397936.35 | 390164.85 | 157.60 | 7771.49 | 98.047 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 53208 | 26808 | 26180 | 220 | 659965.53 | 658682.09 | 8084.50 | 1283.43 | 99.806 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1657495 | 678356 | 977275 | 1864 | 1057901.89 | 1048846.95 | 8242.11 | 9054.93 | 99.144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 9054.93751467 BTC (0.856%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 851.09407500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 8203.84343967 BTC (0.775%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5590392 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3076136 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2355.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1257.2 (53.4%)
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Meni Rosenfeld
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October 31, 2012, 09:57:10 PM |
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Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.
The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.
It just occurred to me that not all the bets are independent events. You can't tell from the data I provided, but it's possible to place multiple bets within a single transaction. All such bets get the same 'magic number'. I don't know what impact that would have on your calculations. If you like, I could add a txid to each bet so you can tell which are grouped with which. It would be a bit more work to take into account grouped bets. But the impact of the fact that those exist is that the variance will be higher, meaning the results are even more plausible. I think it would be fine to try to carry out a more sophisticated statistical test, and/or ask the operators if they know of anything which could cause a problem. But if not that's also fine, the results are within the realm of possibility.
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nibor
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November 01, 2012, 09:41:07 AM |
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Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.
The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.
1000 seems too big to me. there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000.
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Meni Rosenfeld
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November 01, 2012, 06:48:59 PM |
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Ok. We have a total of 79,000 bets resulting in a total profit of -5121 BTC. If we assume the bets are fixed and their results are variable, then the mean profit is 1285 BTC and the variance is 3084000 BTC^2. This means the result is 3.65 sd below the mean.
The probability for a normal random variable to be this low is 0.000132. We need to correct for selection bias; there may be better ways to do it but multiplying by 1000 would be the right ballpark (the effective number of choices for the period to investigate). This means that there would be about 13% chance of getting results this bad somewhere on the graph. This means they indeed have some bad luck, but not so much so to indicate something may be wrong.
1000 seems too big to me. there have been 1.5m bets in total so 20 seems more reasonable than 1000. This has very little to do with the number of bets (in particular you seem to want to use the base-2 log but I see no justification for that. Probabilities are not on the same scale as information bits). It's about how many choices there are to choose the period to analyze. With a very simplistic calculation, you have 180 choices for the start date and about 10 choices for the length, which would come up as 1800. Now you have to correct for the correlations, the fact that we didn't actually go and optimize the worst period, etc. Maybe something like 500 or even less is more appropriate but again this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation. I agree that it is unusual enough to look into it further.
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dooglus
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November 01, 2012, 07:19:47 PM |
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'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... Results: 2012-Nov-01 12:17pm (up to block 206023)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 32953 | 0 (0.00000) | 32492 | 461 | 231.99 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 231.97 | 0.008 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2140 | 0 (0.00000) | 2054 | 86 | 32.13 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.13 | 0.006 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3361 | 0 (0.00000) | 3319 | 42 | 44.99 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 44.95 | 0.087 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3950 | 2 (0.00051) | 3904 | 44 | 74.16 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.09 | 21.675 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5476 | 1 (0.00018) | 5436 | 39 | 163.38 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 159.08 | 2.632 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7102 | 3 (0.00042) | 7087 | 12 | 473.27 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 169.87 | 64.107 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 8984 | 8 (0.00089) | 8952 | 24 | 746.72 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.09 | 16.691 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11032 | 19 (0.00173) | 10956 | 57 | 1669.86 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.02 | 76.344 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12602 | 56 (0.00445) | 12529 | 17 | 1858.95 | 2624.47 | 13.12 | -765.52 | 141.180 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19055 | 144 (0.00756) | 18899 | 12 | 3571.02 | 3434.17 | 9.35 | 136.85 | 96.168 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40525 | 619 (0.01528) | 39893 | 13 | 10076.70 | 9667.11 | 1.80 | 409.59 | 95.935 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17591 | 421 (0.02394) | 17162 | 8 | 5777.14 | 6004.03 | 15.00 | -226.88 | 103.927 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25306 | 804 (0.03178) | 24498 | 4 | 6531.74 | 6117.05 | 9.24 | 414.69 | 93.651 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18066 | 839 (0.04646) | 17219 | 8 | 7845.28 | 9149.54 | 24.99 | -1304.25 | 116.625 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18031 | 1118 (0.06202) | 16909 | 4 | 5210.19 | 4752.06 | 31.20 | 458.13 | 91.207 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24194 | 2285 (0.09452) | 21890 | 19 | 11402.53 | 11708.64 | 7.01 | -306.11 | 102.685 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98050 | 12071 (0.12314) | 85955 | 24 | 13657.08 | 12183.08 | 0.00 | 1474.00 | 89.207 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24342 | 4538 (0.18656) | 19787 | 17 | 9902.79 | 10176.29 | 14.50 | -273.49 | 102.762 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 111218 | 27150 (0.24417) | 84042 | 26 | 68468.99 | 67420.55 | 566.79 | 1048.43 | 98.469 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 79017 | 29052 (0.36790) | 49916 | 49 | 56750.40 | 57315.03 | 212.64 | -564.62 | 100.995 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 644517 | 314828 (0.48882) | 329228 | 461 | 378118.39 | 374253.48 | 2923.41 | 3864.90 | 98.978 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 235837 | 117626 (0.49917) | 118019 | 192 | 224011.33 | 221338.24 | 1709.77 | 2673.09 | 98.807 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 171457 | 126173 (0.73623) | 45203 | 81 | 167564.12 | 165494.31 | 704.58 | 2069.80 | 98.765 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17487 | 13905 (0.79575) | 3569 | 13 | 28492.35 | 28514.57 | 1187.00 | -22.21 | 100.078 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16318 | 13971 (0.85738) | 2324 | 23 | 27420.02 | 27376.00 | 400.00 | 44.01 | 99.839 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8219 | 7528 (0.91671) | 684 | 7 | 21178.55 | 21145.58 | 0.00 | 32.97 | 99.844 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8316 | 8005 (0.98004) | 163 | 148 | 17936.51 | 17656.47 | 239.21 | 280.04 | 98.439 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1611628 | 654218 | 955739 | 1671 | 399638.38 | 391839.38 | 157.73 | 7799.00 | 98.048 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 53518 | 26948 | 26350 | 220 | 669572.33 | 666214.66 | 8084.50 | 3357.66 | 99.499 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1665146 | 681166 | 982089 | 1891 | 1069210.71 | 1058054.05 | 8242.23 | 11156.66 | 98.957 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11156.66353009 BTC (1.043%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 858.79807500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10297.86545509 BTC (0.963%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5617320 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3090200 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2367.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1263.1 (53.4%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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jamesg
VIP
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
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November 01, 2012, 07:31:38 PM |
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'They' know we're onto them, and have started losing again to cover their tracks... Holy $h!t! That is one big turn around.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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November 03, 2012, 01:55:00 AM |
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Results: 2012-Nov-02 06:37pm (up to block 206204)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 33452 | 0 (0.00000) | 32991 | 461 | 233.44 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 233.42 | 0.008 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2155 | 0 (0.00000) | 2069 | 86 | 32.36 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.36 | 0.005 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3366 | 0 (0.00000) | 3324 | 42 | 45.00 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 44.96 | 0.087 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3992 | 2 (0.00051) | 3946 | 44 | 74.94 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.86 | 21.452 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5536 | 1 (0.00018) | 5496 | 39 | 164.62 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.32 | 2.613 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7107 | 3 (0.00042) | 7092 | 12 | 473.28 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 169.88 | 64.105 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9000 | 8 (0.00089) | 8968 | 24 | 746.74 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.11 | 16.690 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11050 | 19 (0.00173) | 10974 | 57 | 1669.92 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.08 | 76.341 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12632 | 56 (0.00444) | 12559 | 17 | 1860.12 | 2624.47 | 13.12 | -764.35 | 141.091 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19098 | 144 (0.00754) | 18942 | 12 | 3573.33 | 3434.17 | 9.35 | 139.16 | 96.106 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 40946 | 624 (0.01524) | 40309 | 13 | 10116.05 | 9682.56 | 1.80 | 433.48 | 95.715 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17594 | 421 (0.02394) | 17165 | 8 | 5777.15 | 6004.03 | 15.00 | -226.87 | 103.927 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25322 | 804 (0.03176) | 24514 | 4 | 6532.75 | 6117.05 | 9.24 | 415.70 | 93.637 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18078 | 839 (0.04643) | 17231 | 8 | 7856.97 | 9149.60 | 24.99 | -1292.62 | 116.452 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18049 | 1119 (0.06201) | 16926 | 4 | 5210.85 | 4752.15 | 31.20 | 458.70 | 91.197 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24485 | 2317 (0.09471) | 22148 | 20 | 11455.38 | 11721.04 | 7.01 | -265.66 | 102.319 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98805 | 12160 (0.12310) | 86621 | 24 | 14395.56 | 12798.09 | 0.00 | 1597.46 | 88.903 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24397 | 4546 (0.18646) | 19834 | 17 | 9917.27 | 10178.99 | 14.50 | -261.71 | 102.639 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 112431 | 27442 (0.24414) | 84963 | 26 | 68992.38 | 67913.25 | 566.79 | 1079.13 | 98.436 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 79913 | 29389 (0.36799) | 50475 | 49 | 58958.00 | 59654.01 | 212.64 | -696.01 | 101.181 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 645435 | 315286 (0.48884) | 329687 | 462 | 378428.46 | 374554.40 | 2923.41 | 3874.05 | 98.976 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 239363 | 119381 (0.49915) | 119789 | 193 | 230422.39 | 226445.60 | 1709.77 | 3976.79 | 98.274 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 172380 | 126844 (0.73619) | 45455 | 81 | 168154.25 | 166063.07 | 704.58 | 2091.18 | 98.756 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17602 | 13988 (0.79527) | 3601 | 13 | 28777.29 | 28762.44 | 1187.00 | 14.85 | 99.948 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16412 | 14054 (0.85753) | 2335 | 23 | 27599.87 | 27567.24 | 400.00 | 32.62 | 99.882 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8596 | 7886 (0.91815) | 703 | 7 | 22142.70 | 22147.80 | 0.00 | -5.09 | 100.023 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8339 | 8026 (0.98010) | 163 | 150 | 17946.45 | 17666.44 | 239.21 | 280.00 | 98.440 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1621508 | 658183 | 961649 | 1676 | 402499.43 | 394485.79 | 157.73 | 8013.63 | 98.009 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54027 | 27176 | 26631 | 220 | 679058.25 | 674474.02 | 8084.50 | 4584.23 | 99.325 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1675535 | 685359 | 988280 | 1896 | 1081557.68 | 1068959.81 | 8242.23 | 12597.87 | 98.835 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12597.87359525 BTC (1.165%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 869.22267500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11728.65092025 BTC (1.084%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5652371 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3109467 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2382.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1271.2 (53.4%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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November 03, 2012, 06:55:30 PM |
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Results: 2012-Nov-03 11:36am (up to block 206304)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 34084 | 0 (0.00000) | 33623 | 461 | 234.74 | 0.01 | 37.17 | 234.72 | 0.008 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2159 | 0 (0.00000) | 2073 | 86 | 32.47 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.47 | 0.005 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3375 | 0 (0.00000) | 3333 | 42 | 45.13 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 45.09 | 0.086 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 3997 | 2 (0.00051) | 3951 | 44 | 74.97 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.89 | 21.445 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5539 | 1 (0.00018) | 5499 | 39 | 164.63 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.33 | 2.613 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7113 | 3 (0.00042) | 7098 | 12 | 473.41 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 170.01 | 64.088 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9008 | 8 (0.00089) | 8976 | 24 | 746.86 | 124.63 | 55.64 | 622.23 | 16.688 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11069 | 19 (0.00173) | 10993 | 57 | 1670.23 | 1274.84 | 48.25 | 395.39 | 76.327 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12653 | 57 (0.00451) | 12579 | 17 | 1861.54 | 2624.97 | 13.12 | -763.43 | 141.011 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19142 | 145 (0.00758) | 18985 | 12 | 3574.26 | 3434.41 | 9.35 | 139.84 | 96.087 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 41424 | 635 (0.01533) | 40776 | 13 | 10165.27 | 9748.42 | 1.80 | 416.85 | 95.899 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17608 | 422 (0.02398) | 17178 | 8 | 5780.80 | 6004.17 | 15.00 | -223.36 | 103.864 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25327 | 806 (0.03183) | 24517 | 4 | 6533.16 | 6117.18 | 9.24 | 415.98 | 93.633 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18088 | 840 (0.04646) | 17240 | 8 | 7862.01 | 9149.71 | 24.99 | -1287.69 | 116.379 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18091 | 1122 (0.06203) | 16965 | 4 | 5216.69 | 4768.29 | 31.20 | 448.39 | 91.405 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24528 | 2325 (0.09487) | 22183 | 20 | 11463.84 | 11733.31 | 7.01 | -269.46 | 102.351 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 98972 | 12177 (0.12306) | 86771 | 24 | 14432.22 | 12849.31 | 0.00 | 1582.91 | 89.032 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24441 | 4557 (0.18658) | 19867 | 17 | 9929.17 | 10192.73 | 14.50 | -263.56 | 102.654 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 112702 | 27496 (0.24403) | 85180 | 26 | 69093.72 | 67985.85 | 566.79 | 1107.87 | 98.397 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 80169 | 29484 (0.36800) | 50635 | 50 | 59232.02 | 59842.46 | 212.64 | -610.43 | 101.031 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 645878 | 315496 (0.48883) | 329919 | 463 | 378639.60 | 374658.17 | 2923.41 | 3981.43 | 98.948 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 240960 | 120167 (0.49910) | 120600 | 193 | 231488.39 | 227736.60 | 1709.77 | 3751.78 | 98.379 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 172911 | 127223 (0.73612) | 45607 | 81 | 169149.08 | 167252.42 | 704.58 | 1896.65 | 98.879 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17635 | 14010 (0.79503) | 3612 | 13 | 28793.72 | 28778.25 | 1187.00 | 15.47 | 99.946 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16466 | 14098 (0.85739) | 2345 | 23 | 27858.00 | 27860.31 | 400.00 | -2.30 | 100.008 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8668 | 7949 (0.91779) | 712 | 7 | 22282.08 | 22272.89 | 0.00 | 9.19 | 99.959 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8345 | 8032 (0.98011) | 163 | 150 | 17949.37 | 17669.37 | 239.21 | 279.99 | 98.440 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1626230 | 659851 | 964701 | 1678 | 403375.90 | 395340.12 | 157.73 | 8035.77 | 98.008 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54122 | 27223 | 26679 | 220 | 681371.61 | 677062.09 | 8084.50 | 4309.51 | 99.368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1680352 | 687074 | 991380 | 1898 | 1084747.51 | 1072402.21 | 8242.24 | 12345.29 | 98.862 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 874.04977500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11471.24435971 BTC (1.058%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5669272 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3118057 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2390.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1274.7 (53.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Come-from-Beyond
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
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November 03, 2012, 07:08:39 PM |
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SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)
Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence?
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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November 04, 2012, 05:03:23 PM |
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SD Profit before fees: 12345.29413471 BTC (1.138%)
Small Straight! What odds for such a sequence? Given that we're bouncing around between 7500 and 12500, there's 5000 different integer values it can be. So about 5000-to-1 against? But you'd probably be equally amazed if it was exactly 12000, or 12121, or 11111, or 9999, etc. So in that sense it's less amazing. And without further ado: Results: 2012-Nov-04 08:59am (up to block 206455)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 34691 | 0 (0.00000) | 34229 | 462 | 235.51 | 0.01 | 37.27 | 235.49 | 0.008 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2164 | 0 (0.00000) | 2078 | 86 | 32.59 | 0.00 | 10.45 | 32.59 | 0.005 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3388 | 0 (0.00000) | 3346 | 42 | 45.63 | 0.03 | 5.65 | 45.59 | 0.085 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 4002 | 2 (0.00051) | 3956 | 44 | 75.02 | 16.07 | 5.65 | 58.95 | 21.428 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 5542 | 1 (0.00018) | 5502 | 39 | 164.82 | 4.30 | 8.40 | 160.52 | 2.610 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7126 | 3 (0.00042) | 7111 | 12 | 473.52 | 303.40 | 1.29 | 170.12 | 64.073 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9022 | 8 (0.00089) | 8990 | 24 | 750.11 | 124.64 | 55.64 | 625.46 | 16.617 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 11089 | 20 (0.00181) | 11012 | 57 | 1670.45 | 1277.33 | 48.25 | 393.11 | 76.467 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 12660 | 57 (0.00451) | 12586 | 17 | 1861.59 | 2624.97 | 13.12 | -763.38 | 141.007 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 19175 | 147 (0.00767) | 19016 | 12 | 3574.74 | 3435.66 | 9.35 | 139.07 | 96.109 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 42459 | 655 (0.01543) | 41791 | 13 | 10385.82 | 10058.65 | 1.80 | 327.16 | 96.850 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 17614 | 423 (0.02403) | 17183 | 8 | 5781.15 | 6016.96 | 15.00 | -235.81 | 104.079 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 25337 | 806 (0.03182) | 24527 | 4 | 6533.35 | 6117.18 | 9.24 | 416.17 | 93.630 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 18093 | 840 (0.04645) | 17245 | 8 | 7863.03 | 9149.71 | 24.99 | -1286.67 | 116.364 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 18112 | 1123 (0.06202) | 16985 | 4 | 5217.45 | 4768.30 | 31.20 | 449.14 | 91.391 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 24616 | 2329 (0.09469) | 22267 | 20 | 11487.98 | 11733.97 | 7.01 | -245.99 | 102.141 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 99216 | 12209 (0.12308) | 86983 | 24 | 14460.32 | 12874.54 | 0.00 | 1585.77 | 89.034 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 24479 | 4564 (0.18658) | 19898 | 17 | 9932.70 | 10193.12 | 14.50 | -260.42 | 102.622 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 113211 | 27642 (0.24422) | 85543 | 26 | 69563.33 | 68188.38 | 566.79 | 1374.94 | 98.023 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 80470 | 29594 (0.36799) | 50826 | 50 | 59415.28 | 60102.10 | 212.64 | -686.82 | 101.156 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 646462 | 315764 (0.48880) | 330235 | 463 | 379025.84 | 374900.53 | 2923.41 | 4125.31 | 98.912 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 242107 | 120740 (0.49910) | 121174 | 193 | 231883.68 | 228051.89 | 1709.77 | 3831.79 | 98.348 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 173652 | 127780 (0.73619) | 45790 | 82 | 169504.89 | 167671.12 | 704.58 | 1833.76 | 98.918 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 17795 | 14141 (0.79524) | 3641 | 13 | 28854.34 | 28846.46 | 1187.00 | 7.87 | 99.973 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 16615 | 14219 (0.85703) | 2372 | 24 | 28230.34 | 28205.68 | 400.00 | 24.66 | 99.913 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 8881 | 8142 (0.91751) | 732 | 7 | 22936.72 | 22971.12 | 0.00 | -34.40 | 100.150 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 8404 | 8090 (0.98013) | 164 | 150 | 17953.13 | 17673.12 | 239.21 | 280.01 | 98.440 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1632142 | 662009 | 968452 | 1681 | 404369.21 | 396442.72 | 157.83 | 7926.48 | 98.040 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 54240 | 27290 | 26730 | 220 | 683544.25 | 678866.69 | 8084.50 | 4677.56 | 99.316 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1686382 | 689299 | 995182 | 1901 | 1087913.46 | 1075309.41 | 8242.34 | 12604.05 | 98.841 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12604.05221580 BTC (1.159%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 880.08697500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11723.96524080 BTC (1.078%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 5689945 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3128577 (55.0%) Blockchain MB: 2399.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1279.1 (53.3%)
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JWU42
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1000
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November 05, 2012, 11:53:01 AM |
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That was (is) quite a reversal...
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Herbert
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November 05, 2012, 11:55:43 AM |
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Doesn't this reversal make it even more suspicious? I mean that steep rise is equally unexpected like the steep loss before. What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?
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jamesg
VIP
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
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November 05, 2012, 12:01:18 PM |
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What is the probability of these two events happening directly one after the other?
I think a better question could be what is the probability the drop happened directly before a dividend payment...
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