ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[philipma1957]

I think Vycid can't possibly know the future. To predict that AM will never go above 3 btc is easy to predict impossible to guarantee.

 If AM has a better usb stick on the market before the holidays they would be boosted in price. If AM puts up 50th more hash power they would be boosted in price. If AM sells a better blade by black friday they would be boosted in price.

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.
 AM may not increase hashpower.
 AM may not sell a better stick or a better blade in the near future. ie 2013 no better gear .

 How the f does Vycid know any of the above info?

[tinyfox266]

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.

Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?

[philipma1957]

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.

Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?

I have only read the number online not on knc's site.

[Lauda]

Let's crash the price and buy back in? 

[Vycid]

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

[101111]

ha ha, magic over math 

[TheSwede75]

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

Shares traded on BTCT.CO represent >10% of AM share base. Who cares, at 30% 12 months dividend I'm perfectly fine with just moth-balling my few shares. If AM actually rolls out Gen 2 to the tune of 1/5th of the network in the next 2 months anything under 3 BTC is cheap anyway.

[ex-trader]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

[TheSwede75]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

[bitsalame]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

[eastpk]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

I'm fairly certain rockxie was at a China btc meetup and he was presenting this slideshow here talking about asicminer.

I know rockxie is very close with FC but we actually never heard anything from him on this.

EDIT: Looks like I am wrong - this looks like it may have been an interview with FC himself.

[xchrisxsays]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?

[eastpk]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?

It doesnt look like it... I think its a good thing that they are holding back dividends because they are planning to exponentially increasing the amount of Gen 2 devices. Perhaps this is what they will use to achieve the 1000Th 

[bitsalame]

Alright, I'm buying more shares lol
Hello 5, we'll meet again.

[hcburger]

Friedcat in the latest update:

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

Any idea what "exponentially increased devices" means?
Does this mean they're planning on assembling a large number of "old" devices?
Or does that mean that they're planning to assemble some form of better devices ("gen1.5")?
Or even gen2 chips (this I doubt, since the plan was November at the earliest)?

[VJain]

Even if/when ASICMINER get's their 1PH up and running by end of year, will they only be keeping up with the race? There is likely about 10PH+ (underestimating based on BFL 2 week rule) in the works in between the 20000 (sarcasm) manufactures/ASIC companies.

They'd manage to then stay at 10% - keeping the valuation at approximately 2BTC, potentially higher if other investment ROI's decrease across the board (such as CoinLenders dropping 2% APR).

[binaryFate]

Friedcat in the latest update:

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

Any idea what "exponentially increased devices" means?
Does this mean they're planning on assembling a large number of "old" devices?
Or does that mean that they're planning to assemble some form of better devices ("gen1.5")?
Or even gen2 chips (this I doubt, since the plan was November at the earliest)?

I don't see how "exponentially increased" could semanticaly be used for a "form of hardware". And yes, gen2 is far away. So it is clear to me that he's speaking about the new G1-blades, saying that they will have to increase their number to follow the exponentially increasing diff. Basically the 200TH/s batch that we still haven't seen yet, and then the ~1PH/s though it's more fuzzy as it is more long term.
Things probably got delayed because of some hardware problems, that have been solved now as we have seen some working new blades on sell. This was probably a small first batch, and mass production volumes are not available yet, but probably ongoing at the moment.

[runeks]

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.

[Vycid]

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.

Wow, this looks familiar.

[neilol]

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.

Wow, this looks familiar.

I might be interested - Are these American or European execution? 84 days out is a century in BTC land