ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[AMuppInTime]

@canth
I'm loving the shakeup. I got back onboard at 3.7 - and after seeing everyone freak out about low divs or other IPOs, I am glad to see the weak hands leave the boat.
In the end, some play it speculatively, others invest.

[1714790143]

1714790143

[1714790143]

1714790143

[Rebelution]

Imagine a company having to expand its operation by 80% each month! That's been the reality for ASICMiner the past month: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/diff.txt

The difficulty has risen by an average of 25% per adjustment for the past month. That's 80% per month!

Its 94%. You cant simply summarize the percents. Though one diff adjustment now jumped out of the 30 day window it looks less. But im very sure it will be above 100% next diff update. It went 46% then 71% and now 94%. So the difficulty rise is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is even rising exponential.

We need the next-gen chips

It would be nice, but producing and mining with the current gen chips will still be profitable for a long time.  Hardware sales are just a great bonus.  I am loving this panic sell, I have greatly increased my position.  I just hope it remains at this price for the next few weeks so I can continue to load up.  Nom nom nom!

[Vycid]

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... 

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

[velacreations]

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before...  

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

I guess you missed the massive rally a few hours ago, but hold on, cause another one is forming.  There's about 40 shares between here at 3.4

Other people like cheap AM shares, too.

[velacreations]

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

so, let me get this straight, the big drop was because of the USD/BTC rate and nothing to do with the low dividend this week or the whale that has been keeping the price at 3.5 for several days?

interesting theory.

[Vycid]

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

so, let me get this straight, the big drop was because of the USD/BTC rate and nothing to do with the low dividend this week or the whale that has been keeping the price at 3.5 for several days?

interesting theory.

Uh, no. I guess this needs explaining.

For people who are on the fence about AM, a drop prompts them to sell. This is easy, shares -> BTC.

But people who are bullish on AM likely don't have enough BTC sitting around to buy in lots at the low price. They have to buy BTC from USD first. USD is illiquid in the context of AM, not to mention it takes much longer to move BTC into an exchange than click 'sell'.

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

Don't trust the spikes. The trend is real, not the sudden movement. For a stock, value is equal to sentiment (look at Tesla), and eventually sentiment comes to match fundamentals. The technicals are noise. We will be below 2 in due time.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Sure I wish I had sold near the high - who doesn't?  But also wishing I hadn't just slept through the mid-2s dip.

The power of limit orders.

[velacreations]

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in.  The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

[bobboooiie]

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in.  The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

Yeah you said that 4-5 times already, WE GOT IT by now. But I know you are long on AM so you are trying to pump it up. The true value will be shown by market and its not undervalued by any means at 3, unless you are blind and dont see what is happening in mining BTC world you should see it too.

[Vycid]

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in.  The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

Denial is the first stage.

Anger soon.

[runeks]

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... 

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

Will you reveal how many put options you own?

[velacreations]

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in.  The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

Yeah you said that 4-5 times already, WE GOT IT by now. But I know you are long on AM so you are trying to pump it up. The true value will be shown by market and its not undervalued by any means at 3, unless you are blind and dont see what is happening in mining BTC world you should see it too.

twice, but who's counting, right?

notice how Labcoin and ActM also had sell offs this morning that time perfectly with the AM recovery(s).  What does that tell you?  To me, that says people see cheap AM shares and are willing to cash in gains with other securities to take advantage of low AM prices.

Tell me, if so many people buy when AM is low, does that mean the market sees it as fair value or under valued?

[Vycid]

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before...  

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

Will you reveal how many put options you own?

No. Sorry, personal finances are off-limits.

I will say this: I am not a whale, I will not be making a major impact. This was fun money, most of my money is in traditional markets where I don't have an unacceptable amount of counterparty risk.

Speaking of which: check out my newest long position, http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ANV

[Panterino]

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before...  

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

Will you reveal how many put options you own?

No. Sorry, personal finances are off-limits.

I will say this: I am not a whale, I will not be making a major impact. This was fun money, most of my money is in traditional markets where I don't have an unacceptable amount of counterparty risk.

Speaking of which: check out my newest long position, http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ANV

That looks good for a pop

[Strange Vlad]

I don't care about low divs.
I don't care about falling share price.
What I only care about is WHERE IS FRIEDCAT'S UPDATE?!

[Vycid]

I don't care about low divs.
I don't care about falling share price.
What I only care about is WHERE IS FRIEDCAT'S UPDATE?!

Yifu was above reproach once.

[velacreations]

I don't care about low divs.
I don't care about falling share price.
What I only care about is WHERE IS FRIEDCAT'S UPDATE?!

When he was doing weekly updates, it typically came a day after dividends.  I don't know if he'll update this week (I sure hope so), but I expect that if he does, it will be tomorrow.

[Birdy]

To give you some perspective from someone who sold his shares (last ones@3.1):
There are some things that worry me about AM right now.
The difficulty jumps are getting really crazy and even AM will have trouble keeping up with this.
The BTC/USD value seems to be on the fence of skyrocketing and people may want to have their BTC liquid (also I prefer to have only a certain amount of "risk capital", when the BTC value increases I want less of them in shares)
This combined with the low information output from friedcat and the low dividends that showed that the drop of hashrate wasn't due renting triggered my wish to sell my shares.

I didn't own a lot of shares, so it wasn't that influencal, but I just wanted to share my view.

[canth]

@canth
I'm loving the shakeup. I got back onboard at 3.7 - and after seeing everyone freak out about low divs or other IPOs, I am glad to see the weak hands leave the boat.
In the end, some play it speculatively, others invest.

Yup - I've got no problem with the panic sells (of a few shares). The real price for any share is what you can sell > 0.1% of the shares for, in the case of AM at least 400. I don't remember seeing more than a few shares go for over 5 BTC nor do I think that anyone would sell 400 shares for under 3.5 BTC today. It's funny because this scenario is even more exaggerated on other stocks that don't frequently trade as much volume as AM does. Then people REALLY freak when the price plunges or takes off, even though only a few shares traded hands.

In general, as much as the prices fluctuate and as much as there's a noisy minority of disruptive shareholders posting incendiary crap, the majority of investors seem comfortable to buy and hold. If they didn't, the share volume traded would be much higher. I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of an operation Friedcat (and his competition) will be running in 6-12 months or more.

[Vycid]

@canth
I'm loving the shakeup. I got back onboard at 3.7 - and after seeing everyone freak out about low divs or other IPOs, I am glad to see the weak hands leave the boat.
In the end, some play it speculatively, others invest.

Yup - I've got no problem with the panic sells (of a few shares). The real price for any share is what you can sell > 0.1% of the shares for, in the case of AM at least 400. I don't remember seeing more than a few shares go for over 5 BTC nor do I think that anyone would sell 400 shares for under 3.5 BTC today. It's funny because this scenario is even more exaggerated on other stocks that don't frequently trade as much volume as AM does. Then people REALLY freak when the price plunges or takes off, even though only a few shares traded hands.

In general, as much as the prices fluctuate and as much as there's a noisy minority of disruptive shareholders posting incendiary crap, the majority of investors seem comfortable to buy and hold. If they didn't, the share volume traded would be much higher. I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of an operation Friedcat (and his competition) will be running in 6-12 months or more.

We will see within the next week if 400 shares will go below 3. I think that's too fast, but adjustments are brutal sometimes. There could be a sentiment inflection among original board members, and then it's game over.