FloatesMcgoates
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August 28, 2013, 07:55:10 AM |
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With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
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SmiGueL
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August 28, 2013, 07:58:40 AM Last edit: August 28, 2013, 09:21:53 AM by SmiGueL |
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Based on data here: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it? I'll take your bet. Just a few more blocks in the next hours.. This is getting more exciting than I thought. Little chance, but it IS still possible ^^ | 6 blocks in ~4h should be enough. This image is just for illustration purposes. The actual hashrate can (and have to be be) calculated and verified from data in the blockchain.
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JimiQ84
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August 28, 2013, 08:08:16 AM |
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Based on data here: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it? I'll take your bet. Just a few more blocks in the next hours.. This is getting more exciting than I thought. Little chance, but it IS still possible ^^My sentiments exactly. I didn't expect so close result
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BitCsByBit
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August 28, 2013, 08:12:44 AM |
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AM hashrate is back up. It seems to be the all time high, around 80TH/s.
this is called luck and variance Often, some noobs under-estimate the effect of variance, and get crazy every 6 hours "it's up!", "it's down!". But this time, I fully agree. This is not variance. They were undoubtedly having a low hashrate these last days, around 30TH/s, and they are now way higher. The possible range of this "way higher" is still large given that the increase is recent, but it will shrink over time and we should get a reasonable approximation in 48h. Personally, I think we will be higher than the previous high of ~60TH/s. I expect 80 or higher. My hypothesis is that the recent low was due to some work required to extend the farm. Now the extension is being turned on... Welcome the new hash rate! Almost 48 hours later and it is clear that it wasn't just variance.
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Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
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conv3rsion
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August 28, 2013, 08:27:24 AM |
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With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop. Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.
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2weiX
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August 28, 2013, 08:43:07 AM |
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With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop. Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears. That's because in some peoples' minds the BTC/USD is inversely tied to difficulty. Also, the BTC/USD spike is biggest on mtgox and should thus be disregarded / discounted.
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DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis
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August 28, 2013, 08:43:21 AM |
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With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop. Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears. Very simple solution people have BTC and the are speculating on a rise in the fiat value of that BTC. They see ASICMiner as a was to "boost" their returns. If BTC exchange rate triples well you tripled your money BUT if BTC exchange rate triples AND you get 30% dividend you quadrupled your money. These "investors" are very weak hands. They are essentially using ASICMiner like a weekly money market funds. When the exchange rate spikes they want to sell some BTC for USD, except to do that they need to sell ASICMiner shares for BTC first.
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freedomno1
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August 28, 2013, 08:46:50 AM |
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I have collected some management pieces from The Business Cat song: and linked them all together. Check it out http://youtu.be/qNhycX0XCJ0That should shed some soundful light onto how things are being run by cats I don't know why but this amused me Make your lyrics into a youtube video perhaps to challenge the best bitcoin song so far http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdrSP0V-KLgTherefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears. As the value of each bitcoin increases in value, the share value of AM which is measured in bitcoin decreases relative to other prices meaning that as we see higher prices it cost less bitcoin per share of AM. Lower prices mean it cost more bitcoin per share of AM. (edit other posts above are also correct)
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Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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2weiX
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August 28, 2013, 09:05:06 AM |
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With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop. Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears. That's because in some peoples' minds the BTC/USD is inversely tied to difficulty. Increased difficulty means either - lower dividend expectation at constant fixed costs - stable dividend expectation at higher fixed costs (new hardware necessary). Both have negative effect on expected revenue, thus prompting to sell. Also, the BTC/USD spike is biggest on mtgox and should thus be disregarded / discounted.
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bigdude
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August 28, 2013, 09:22:22 AM |
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speaking of fixed costs ...
At 60-70TH/s - what would be the costs of electricity, hosting (the DC) and other fixed costs??
What about at 500TH/s?
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conv3rsion
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August 28, 2013, 09:23:22 AM |
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That's because in some peoples' minds the BTC/USD is inversely tied to difficulty. Also, the BTC/USD spike is biggest on mtgox and should thus be disregarded / discounted.
Difficulty has generally followed price whenever price has increased (though not necessarily when price has decreased). This makes sense intuitively because an increase in price increases the viability of mining up and until the subsequent increasing difficulty then reduces the viability of mining. However, the current exponentially growing rate of difficulty is driven both by the order of magnitude increase in BTC / fiat and by the (multiple) order of magnitude increases in hashing rate from the use of ASICS. This may prove to be the fastest increase in difficulty that Bitcoin ever goes through. Whats never been clear however is that the increases in difficulty then eventually result in further increases in the BTC / fiat rate. In fact, the opposite has been true with Litecoin, where difficulty increased until it wasn't sufficiently viable and then decreased slightly, while the price of LTC itself has been steadily decreasing since April. This is actually very similar to what happened to BTC in fall 2011. Regarding the price spike, BTC is up across the board by at least 20% in the last 5 weeks (discounting gox). It seems there is growing consensus that the BTC price bubble has finally ended, and given its relative magnitude to the 2011 summer bubble, its very possible that it has. More interesting (to me) is that the exponential growth in difficulty has nearly doubled the temporary BTC inflation rate for a period of now nearly 3 months. That will (obviously) not continue over any substantial period of time for reasons that should be self evident. Think about what that means for what is to come. I know what I'm doing.
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binaryFate
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Still wild and free
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August 28, 2013, 09:26:50 AM |
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Based on data here: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it? I'll take your bet. Just a few more blocks in the next hours.. This is getting more exciting than I thought. Little chance, but it IS still possible ^^ | 6 blocks in ~4h should be enough. This image is just for illustration purposes. The actual hashrate can (and have to be be) calculated and verified from data in the blockchain.5.5h to go... It will be hard for me... The hashrate does not look bad anyway, I still find likely that they finally increased the farm above 60.
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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Lohoris
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August 28, 2013, 09:42:19 AM |
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- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends - how much has he held back
Would it help if friedcat releases a cashflow statement everytime a dividend payment occurs? e.g. something like: x BTC dividend payment = x BTC revenue - x BTC withheld then the market can build their own balance sheet during the release of financial statements... It would help a lot.
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binaryFate
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August 28, 2013, 09:50:37 AM |
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Guys, I missed this, what with labcoin panic? Was there some news to trigger this? Looks good to me hehe activemining seems to dip right now on btct, any possible link with labcoin panic?
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Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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freedomno1
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August 28, 2013, 09:51:59 AM Last edit: August 28, 2013, 10:05:24 AM by freedomno1 |
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Guys, I missed this, what with labcoin panic? Was there some news to trigger this? Looks good to me hehe activemining seems to dip right now on btct, any possible link with labcoin panic? They are late, Theswede said he can't contact the founders and he is the PR Rep, the developer does not want people to know his association with labcoin, and a few hero members cashed out at least that's what I got recently. (Edit in: All Fear Dissipated by news Panic Buy) Activemining people complaining that KenSlaughter has not released any real news and the EASIC agreement is the source of the conversation but nothing has happened. Lack of communication. AM: More Hash
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Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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darrenyu
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August 28, 2013, 10:26:59 AM |
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Guys, I missed this, what with labcoin panic? Was there some news to trigger this? Looks good to me hehe activemining seems to dip right now on btct, any possible link with labcoin panic? Labcoin panic due to no news and no chip on 8/26 they promise. There should be website update and news about chip of Labcoin. I think ASICMINER is the No1 and safe investment.
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*Image Removed*
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BitCsByBit
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August 28, 2013, 10:30:04 AM |
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Guys, I missed this, what with labcoin panic? Was there some news to trigger this? Looks good to me hehe activemining seems to dip right now on btct, any possible link with labcoin panic? Labcoin panic due to no news and no chip on 8/26 they promise. There should be website update and news about chip of Labcoin. Labcoin has posted an update.
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Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
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freedomno1
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August 28, 2013, 10:30:44 AM |
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Guys, I missed this, what with labcoin panic? Was there some news to trigger this? Looks good to me hehe activemining seems to dip right now on btct, any possible link with labcoin panic? Labcoin panic due to no news and no chip on 8/26 they promise. There should be website update and news about chip of Labcoin. I think ASICMINER is the No1 and safe investment. Well now super buy in on news so left the post in speculation
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Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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SebastianJu
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August 28, 2013, 10:35:21 AM |
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One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.
In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.
I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.
Friedcat never showed any sign of moral lowness and he had many chances. At the moment he is probably the person i trust the most in bitcoin ventures. On top he always makes the correct decisions.
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Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
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supert
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August 28, 2013, 11:12:14 AM |
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Difficulty has generally followed price whenever price has increased (though not necessarily when price has decreased). This makes sense intuitively because an increase in price increases the viability of mining up and until the subsequent increasing difficulty then reduces the viability of mining.
However, the current exponentially growing rate of difficulty is driven both by the order of magnitude increase in BTC / fiat and by the (multiple) order of magnitude increases in hashing rate from the use of ASICS. This may prove to be the fastest increase in difficulty that Bitcoin ever goes through.
Whats never been clear however is that the increases in difficulty then eventually result in further increases in the BTC / fiat rate. In fact, the opposite has been true with Litecoin, where difficulty increased until it wasn't sufficiently viable and then decreased slightly, while the price of LTC itself has been steadily decreasing since April. This is actually very similar to what happened to BTC in fall 2011.
Regarding the price spike, BTC is up across the board by at least 20% in the last 5 weeks (discounting gox). It seems there is growing consensus that the BTC price bubble has finally ended, and given its relative magnitude to the 2011 summer bubble, its very possible that it has. More interesting (to me) is that the exponential growth in difficulty has nearly doubled the temporary BTC inflation rate for a period of now nearly 3 months. That will (obviously) not continue over any substantial period of time for reasons that should be self evident.
Think about what that means for what is to come. I know what I'm doing.
I noticed the same mechanisms. The 2011 price bubble also coincided with the GPU mining coming on line. However I think the supply from miners and demand from commerce is minimal compared with investment supply/demand. Bitcoin prices like gold in that regard.
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