ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[JimiQ84]

The "leaked" slides talk of the second large scale deployment (~1 PH/s)

I thought I see the official update saying 200Th in the new few months?

200TH is nothing. At least 1PH makes more sense in the near future.

200TH is being used (deployed, franchised, sold) right now (first two batches were 62TH/s, i believe our current hashrate is around 45TH/s and AM sold around 20TH/s).

Fourth (and probably final) batch of 130nm technology will be ready later (probably start of october?) - 1000TH/s. Then around december/january first batch of 2nd gen chips. (55 or 65nm)

At least that's my view of things. I am not sure of anything 'cause of lack of updates from FC

[1713293189]

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[101111]

Will price ever rise above 3.5 again?

No one can predict the future, but personally it's worth at least 5.

[dragonfruit]

I would like to purchase 1 direct ASICMINER share - PM me for details.

[bitsalame]

The "leaked" slides talk of the second large scale deployment (~1 PH/s)

I thought I see the official update saying 200Th in the new few months?

200TH is nothing. At least 1PH makes more sense in the near future.

200TH is being used (deployed, franchised, sold) right now (first two batches were 62TH/s, i believe our current hashrate is around 45TH/s and AM sold around 20TH/s).

Fourth (and probably final) batch of 130nm technology will be ready later (probably start of october?) - 1000TH/s. Then around december/january first batch of 2nd gen chips. (55 or 65nm)

At least that's my view of things. I am not sure of anything 'cause of lack of updates from FC

I don't know where you got those numbers, but if that is an accurate schedule of Asicminer, we are pretty much fucked.
CoinTerra 2 PetaHashes by December, BitMine will bring 4 Petahashes by March, FastHash and KnCMiner who knows how much more.
CoinTerra and KnC are both already going full throttle using 28nm.

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 BTC per share will be overpriced.
There is no more reason to be holding back, being the most capitalized company in the bitcoin world, they should be leading this fierce competition.

[Jutarul]

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 btc per share will be expensive.

The only thing which seems to inflate more drastically than hashpower are hashpower expectations. It seems that people look at growth slopes and then extrapolate half a year into the future. Beware that slope changes can have dramatic effect on timing, it's easy to get the expected hashpower wrong by a factor of 2-5 over a period of 6 months just based on slope analysis.

Certainly there will be a need to bring petahashes to the network. That's why one of the most important aspect of suppliers is to optimize production and deployment scalability. Failure at that stage can lead to loosing competitiveness either from a fiscal and/or a reputation point. Just having a fancy chip won't cut it.

[VeeMiner]

I don't know where you got those numbers, but if that is an accurate schedule of Asicminer, we are pretty much fucked.
CoinTerra 2 PetaHashes by December, BitMine will bring 4 Petahashes by March, FastHash and KnCMiner who knows how much more.
CoinTerra and KnC are both already going full throttle using 28nm.

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 BTC per share will be overpriced.
There is no more reason to be holding back, being the most capitalized company in the bitcoin world, they should be leading this fierce competition.

Cointerra - doesn't have anything yet
BitMine - doesn't have anything yet
FastHash - doesn't have anything yet
KnCMiner - doesn't have anything yet

I don't know where is the informatino that CoinTerra and KnC are going full throttle using 28 nm, but I haven't seen proof of such a thing.

Asicminer has already experience with 130 nm chips and the new generation will be produced pretty soon afaik. You should walk before you start running.

Correct me if I'm wrong in anything

[supert]

I don't know where you got those numbers, but if that is an accurate schedule of Asicminer, we are pretty much fucked.
CoinTerra 2 PetaHashes by December, BitMine will bring 4 Petahashes by March, FastHash and KnCMiner who knows how much more.
CoinTerra and KnC are both already going full throttle using 28nm.

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 BTC per share will be overpriced.
There is no more reason to be holding back, being the most capitalized company in the bitcoin world, they should be leading this fierce competition.

Cointerra - doesn't have anything yet
BitMine - doesn't have anything yet
FastHash - doesn't have anything yet
KnCMiner - doesn't have anything yet

I don't know where is the informatino that CoinTerra and KnC are going full throttle using 28 nm, but I haven't seen proof of such a thing.

Asicminer has already experience with 130 nm chips and the new generation will be produced pretty soon afaik. You should walk before you start running.

Correct me if I'm wrong in anything

There is also Avalon, BitFury and BFL.

Cointerra founders claim they have previous experience in 28nm fab.

[Vycid]

I don't know where you got those numbers, but if that is an accurate schedule of Asicminer, we are pretty much fucked.
CoinTerra 2 PetaHashes by December, BitMine will bring 4 Petahashes by March, FastHash and KnCMiner who knows how much more.
CoinTerra and KnC are both already going full throttle using 28nm.

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 BTC per share will be overpriced.
There is no more reason to be holding back, being the most capitalized company in the bitcoin world, they should be leading this fierce competition.

Cointerra - doesn't have anything yet
BitMine - doesn't have anything yet
FastHash - doesn't have anything yet
KnCMiner - doesn't have anything yet

I don't know where is the informatino that CoinTerra and KnC are going full throttle using 28 nm, but I haven't seen proof of such a thing.

Asicminer has already experience with 130 nm chips and the new generation will be produced pretty soon afaik. You should walk before you start running.

Correct me if I'm wrong in anything

There is also Avalon, BitFury and BFL.

Cointerra founders claim they have previous experience in 28nm fab.

That is correct. Ravi Iyengar (CoinTerra lead) was a big shot at Samsung (CPU Lead Architect at Samsung Austin Research Center). The star power is even greater on CoinTerra's advisory board - their chairman, Naveed Sherwani, is also the chair of the Global Semiconductor Association Technical Steering Committee.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7246/the-rush-to-bitcoin-asics-ravi-iyengar-launches-cointerra

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/08/chip-veterans-form-new-startup-will-sell-high-end-bitcoin-miner-for-16000/

Even more important than the experience is the industry connections. Nothing gets done without knowing the right people.

[EskimoBob]

Why do you guys love this pointless guessing game? It will not make you in to a financial analyst, securities analyst nor equity analyst and  definitely not in to a investment analyst.

To have a better understanding, what is happening, all you need to do, is look at the ASICMINER project plan, compare the actual to base line and see, how the estimated numbers fit with CF, PL statements and voilà...
To figure out ASICMINER's value, you only need to look at their balance sheet and go form there...

[superduh]

2014 will be interesting for sure. AM has a headstart on everything + a good reputation compared to other companies ("bitfury" is catching up)

[viboracecata]

Why do you guys love this pointless guessing game? It will not make you in to a financial analyst, securities analyst nor equity analyst and  definitely not in to a investment analyst.

To have a better understanding, what is happening, all you need to do, is look at the ASICMINER project plan, compare the actual to base line and see, how the estimated numbers fit with CF, PL statements and voilà...
To figure out ASICMINER's value, you only need to look at their balance sheet and go form there...

+1

then the price was overvalued.

[Vycid]

Why do you guys love this pointless guessing game? It will not make you in to a financial analyst, securities analyst nor equity analyst and  definitely not in to a investment analyst.

To have a better understanding, what is happening, all you need to do, is look at the ASICMINER project plan, compare the actual to base line and see, how the estimated numbers fit with CF, PL statements and voilà...
To figure out ASICMINER's value, you only need to look at their balance sheet and go form there...

The fair valuation of any security depends heavily on the forward P/E, which in turn is heavily dependent on the hashrate increase and the quality of AM's 2nd gen hardware - which necessarily makes this a guessing game.

I would posit, however, that some guesses are defensible whilst others are not.

By the way, this is not my first analysis and I do not expect it to make me a better analyst.  I expect it to make me money.

[BitThink]

An important question to ask is where do they get those chips fabricated. Everyone claims they will provide 1PH or 2PH. How many chips they need? Have they secured the product lines? How about the PCB, fans? Nobody will create these things in huge number from nowhere. There are not so many idle product lines there waiting for large contracts of mining chips, PCBs, and fans.

[runeks]

2014 will be interesting for sure. AM has a headstart on everything + a good reputation compared to other companies ("bitfury" is catching up)

This is simply not true. AM is currently behind BitFury in the development of 55 nm ASICs. BitFury is shipping right now, ASICMiner plans to ship in November/December. ASICMiner is currently behind one competitor by at least 2 months.

[Ytterbium]

This speaks to the demand for money which is rarely talked about outside of the Austrian school of economics.

You might thing that... if you never read anything other then Austrian economics.

[JimiQ84]

New Blades, photos

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065622

[VeeMiner]

New Blades, photos

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065622

nice! But I thought they were going to be USB connectable, no?

[binaryFate]

Cool!! 

I get really pissed with people always screaming that this is for suckers, that prices are too high, etc, in the threads created by FC to announce the hardware.
What's the point? If they want to buy they buy, if they don't want they go somewhere else having a constructive discussion on a different topic rather than this useless complaints.
Maybe FC should lock the hardware announcement threads, don't you think? Then if somebody want to create a discussion about some prices they create a thread of their own, but they wouldn't polute the main one (where FC does not even mention the harware price!).

[aahzmundus]

New Blades, photos

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065622

nice! But I thought they were going to be USB connectable, no?

Why would you want to plug them in via USB?  These mine on their own... you just plug in ethernet and power and they work.  You would only want a USB connection for simpler ASIC's that cant do all the thinking on their own and need a computer to tell them what the bitcoin network is at, and what to mine.  These blades have all that built into them, you do not need to hook them up to a computer at all.

[VeeMiner]

New Blades, photos

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065622

nice! But I thought they were going to be USB connectable, no?

Why would you want to plug them in via USB?  These mine on their own... you just plug in ethernet and power and they work.  You would only want a USB connection for simpler ASIC's that cant do all the thinking on their own and need a computer to tell them what the bitcoin network is at, and what to mine.  These blades have all that built into them, you do not need to hook them up to a computer at all.

yeah, that actually makes more sense than the USB option...