ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[runeks]

Here are some stats for the past ~1000 blocks, for those interested. The 200 BTC fee ASICMiner picked up is not included in these stats.

the 200 btc had been refunded

Yes I found out when searching for it. But when scanning blocks for fees it's not really possible to see what has been refunded, so I wanted to point out that this doesn't include that fee.

[twbt]

Can someone calculate hashrate from inputs in this address http://blockchain.info/address/1H8NU2ZbJCiyYHBWiUgX3wDFqUgKEqvsXw ?

hope i didn't calculate wrong, its not very accurate, it's just to get a first impression:

with 1 TH/s you can generate ~5.78 BTC a day at current difficulty, the input on this address seems to be something around 31 BTC/day for the last two and a half days

all in all, if i'm not wrong, that makes more than 5.3 TH/s

My current prediction: AM owns 9% of the network in total (included: franchising). That's pretty strong.

[eb3full]

This doesn't make sense. We are already seeing the 130nm chips being too power hungry, of course it's only a matter of time before the 55nm chips use too much power as well.

You must have missed the part where I said "or if difficulty increases much, much more". Obviously there's a stopping point, it's just not in the near future. Plenty of profit to be made from moderately efficient chips in the mean time.

Electricity costs were not even remotely a concern to friedcat from the beginning. You can get contracts with local power companies and pay significantly less. It's already very cheap there. friedcat has also stated he does not intend to franchise outside of China.

Mind you, I'm not talking about power costs, I'm talking about finding locations with enough incoming power to actually run the miners.

friedcat seems to think they can bring on 1PH themselves not even including franchisers, so obviously they found something. When I was on the board I offered 2 MW/h to friedcat and he told me it wouldn't be worth it to ship, they had no problems finding their own sources of power. This was back in October of last year.

[runeks]

This doesn't make sense. We are already seeing the 130nm chips being too power hungry, of course it's only a matter of time before the 55nm chips use too much power as well.

You must have missed the part where I said "or if difficulty increases much, much more". Obviously there's a stopping point, it's just not in the near future. Plenty of profit to be made from moderately efficient chips in the mean time.

At the current rate of change in difficulty, we'll see an increase of an order of magnitude within the next three months. I doubt the 55nm chips will be more than 10 times as efficient as their 130nm chips. Bitfury's chips are 55 nm and they are about 10 times more efficient than ASICMiner's.

Mind you, I'm not talking about power costs, I'm talking about finding locations with enough incoming power to actually run the miners.

friedcat seems to think they can bring on 1PH themselves not even including franchisers, so obviously they found something. When I was on the board I offered 2 MW/h to friedcat and he told me it wouldn't be worth it to ship, they had no problems finding their own sources of power. This was back in October of last year.

I'm not sure what 2 MW/h is and how you would ship that. I'm am, however, sure that they had absolutely no power issues October of last year.

Wrt. the 1 PH, it's possible that this will be using then Gen2 chips. But again, at the current rate of difficulty change, that advantage won't last long either.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I'm not sure what 2 MW/h is and how you would ship that. I'm am, however, sure that they had absolutely no power issues October of last year.

Yeah 2 MW/h is a nonsense unit.  Maybe that is why we didn't want to ship them.

2 MW = measure of energy
2 MWh = measure of power
2 MW/h =

Wrt. the 1 PH, it's possible that this will be using then Gen2 chips. But again, at the current rate of difficulty change, that advantage won't last long either.

This.  It is just an assumption that the 1 PH/s will be built out using existing chips.  An assumption that I think is unlikely otherwise we would be seeing the hashrate climbing the last couple months.  My SWAG is that AM is near its power capacity and that is why it has been selling of blades rather than expanding hashing power.  It will remain ~50 to 60 TH/s max until 28nm? 55nm? blades start to replace the existing 110nm ones.  For each new blade deployed they will sell off the existing used 110nm blade until the entire farm is "switched over".  Depending on the relative efficiency that would expand the farm's output by 4x to 15x without increasing the load. 

[Vycid]

I'm not sure what 2 MW/h is and how you would ship that. I'm am, however, sure that they had absolutely no power issues October of last year.

Yeah 2 MW/h is a nonsense unit.  Maybe that is why we didn't want to ship them.

2 MW = measure of energy
2 MWh = measure of power
2 MW/h =

Wrt. the 1 PH, it's possible that this will be using then Gen2 chips. But again, at the current rate of difficulty change, that advantage won't last long either.

This.  It is just an assumption that the 1 PH/s will be built out using existing chips.  An assumption that I think is unlikely otherwise we would be seeing the hashrate climbing the last couple months.  My SWAG is that AM is near its power capacity and that is why it has been selling of blades rather than expanding hashing power.  It will remain ~50 to 60 TH/s max until 28nm? 55nm? blades start to replace the existing 110nm ones.  For each new blade deployed they will sell off the existing used 110nm blade until the entire farm is "switched over".  Depending on the relative efficiency that would expand the farm's output by 4x to 15x without increasing the load.  

I would also like to observe that whatever Friedcat's exact Gen 2 plan, it has not been shared with the public. Competent investors do not buy companies where the potential for forward earnings is based entirely on their hopeful speculation.

In general it is the habit of successful companies to share their plans for continued success with their stakeholders. Imagine Tesla's share price if the best bullish argument was "Soon Musk is going to suddenly make even cooler cars - you'll see!"

As I said before - I am always bearish on misguided hope.

My SWAG is

Your wat?

Super-wild-ass guess.

[dree12]

I'm not sure what 2 MW/h is and how you would ship that. I'm am, however, sure that they had absolutely no power issues October of last year.

2 MW = measure of energy
2 MWh = measure of power

Other way around.

MW/h is a unit used for power plant startup speed, though it's usually given in W/s. It measures how quickly a power generation plant can reach full capacity from its off state. This has no relevance to ASICMiner whatsoever.

[eb3full]

I meant to say MW. A business near me draws 20MW constantly and offered to host some equipment.

Last October they did have a simulation of power usage though.

[eb3full]

Imagine Tesla's share price if the best bullish argument was "Soon Musk is going to suddenly make even cooler cars - you'll see!"

I was under the impression Tesla's share price was currently in bubble territory for that exact reason...

[Vycid]

Imagine Tesla's share price if the best bullish argument was "Soon Musk is going to suddenly make even cooler cars - you'll see!"

I was under the impression Tesla's share price was currently in bubble territory for that exact reason...

Tesla actually has business plans. It IS a bubble, but that bubble would never have been possible without a clear plan for investors. However ambitious it may have been, they have been executing and exceeding expectations, and people now expect that performance from them. The hope is that Tesla grows to fit its bubble.

If Tesla fails to beat expectations (based on The Plan), that bubble will pop. Entertain the scenario of what would happen if they didn't even release a plan or issue guidance.

Tesla is guided hope. I am not auto-bearish, though I may pick up long-dated put options if they pass 180 this year.

[DeathAndTaxes]

My SWAG is

Your wat?

"Scientific Wild Ass Guess"

[scrybe]

My SWAG is

Your wat?

SWAG = Strategic Wild Ass Guess

Scientific is also used, but I learned my version from the military...

In either case it denotes a combination of big assumptions bounded by available information to get a likely outcome

[Franktank]

My SWAG is

Your wat?

SWAG = Strategic Wild Ass Guess

Stop Wasting Acronyms, Goddamit!

Edit: That seemed a lot funnier when I was thinking of it, not so much after typing it...

[ThickAsThieves]

My SWAG is

Your wat?

SWAG = Strategic Wild Ass Guess

Stop Wasting Acronyms, Goddamit!

Single White Agoraphobic Gamer

[Vycid]

My SWAG is

Your wat?

"Scientific Wild Ass Guess"

Damn, I thought the "S" was "super".  

[wo0x]

But what i would like to know is if friedcat stopped his plans for an own exchange. If so i would think about finally move my shares to one or two exchanges so that i can react fast if i need to.

Expansion by outsourcing is probably the only option FC has. To have too much acceleration in this process will dilute the quality of service.

I would like to have some figures about income from franchising and reseller's protected areas.

And if you are bearish, ask for PUTs ,) so you won't need to move your shares or don't even need to own some ,)

[organofcorti]

Yeah 2 MW/h is a nonsense unit.  Maybe that is why we didn't want to ship them.

2 MW = measure of energy  power
2 MWh = measure of power energy
2 MW/h =

[um, some kind of measurement of acceleration / deceleration of power? For example the ability to ramp up hashrate rapidly? Or something?]


FTFY. Maybe.

[SOSLOVE868]

lot of people ,they sold AM ,they think that other like activitmining or labcoin might get more return for them.
after several days , they found AM still the asset pays highest dividend....

Please hold the price line , As long as AM pays highest dividends, it is no reason to be so panic....Guys!!!

[Vycid]

lot of people ,they sold AM ,they think that other like activitmining or labcoin might get more return for them.
after several days , they found AM still the asset pays highest dividend....

Please hold the price line , As long as AM pays highest dividends, it is no reason to be so panic....Guys!!!

How do you not understand that the current dividends are totally immaterial if the future ability of the company to remain competitive is in question?

You could make 0.1 BTC per share in dividends over the next 3 months - and then end up with shares worth less than 1 BTC.

Good deal, huh?  

There were a lot of people sputtering at 3.0 about how it was still a super profitable dividend security, too. OOPS.

[Vexual]

How do you not understand that the current dividends are totally immaterial if the future ability of the company to remain competitive is in question?

Dividends have some reflection on profits, and those profits are used to remain competitive.

The share price has no reflection on the future ability of the company to remain competitive.