ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[runeks]

Vycid, I think in the best case scenario for bitcoin, there will come a time when the dollar, like many currencies, will have hyperinflation at the same time bitcoin goes up.  

I don't think many debt leveraged corporations will have the time to adjust to bitcoin with the way banks and businesses operate. Like Nokia, they'll probably be too big and structured with permanent debt.

Any company with USD-denominated debt will improve their financial situation in case of hyperinflation. Their debt would become worthless.

Because new businesses will have be structured around new labor and capital, meaning bitcoin. That gives the power to the largest bitcoin balances like Satoshi's.  Next will be the organizations like AM that has a growing bitcoin reserve, similar to central bank reserves.  Then AM has a role much bigger than what it seems right now. New rules for borrowing and for investing means AM can choose on its terms, any portfolio of businesses. So AM can become a conglomerate of a consumer electronic company or a credit card company or even an aerospace company.

Right, right. So you're investing in ASICMiner because it might evolve into an aerospace company in a post-fiat, bitcoin-only economy run by a small number of companies that set the rules?

To each his own I guess. To me this sounds like a very dark future. Nor do I see why it would be possible. A large bitcoin balance gives you no advantage over your competition if you can't invest it better than the competition. Sure, you have a head start, but nothing lasts forever.

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[shawshankinmate37927]

I don't see anyone telling friedcat how to run things.  Shareholders, also known as owners, have every right to ask for more information.  If you can't handle that, then you can GTFO.

each ASICMINER share always equals to 1/400,000 of the total profits and voting power of the summed value from both ASICMINER and Bitfountain.

Not owners.

regardless, shareholders can ask for more information, there's nothing wrong with that.  And they tend to ask for information when things are not going great, so it's understandable that hey want to know what is going on.

FC is not obligate to answer, of course, but it would be nice if he did.

Yes, I agree.  My post has been corrected.

[houseofchill]

runeks, I'm not sure if that'll be such a dark future.  Just depends on what we make of it.  Else we're just subjects in Satoshi's empire.  He's got more coins ratio wise than the current richest man in dollars by far.

World peace was always foretold by the prophets.  Just like bitcoin is a harbinger to world peace. Those will change everything anyway.

[kingcrimson]

Are the bitfunder pt shares good to grab? What was the drama there?

[freedomno1]

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/w797k.jpg
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294030.msg3151018#msg3151018

Interesting enough guess we are left wondering.

Are the bitfunder pt shares good to grab? What was the drama there?

Tat mentioned that they aren't easy to push to other exchanges not sure if there are other factors though
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253673.msg3144507#msg3144507

[jabetizo]

In the meantime, their savings wallet keeps growing http://blockchain.info/address/1HgTJED7XEGy4vVwKa8kgefWqUB3VRX2mW

I'm pretty sure that's a shareholder's dividend address. If you divide the payout every week with that week's dividend, it's always a round number.

[darrenyu]

Lower price then we can buy more shares.
So , It is ok to me.

[JimiQ84]

In the meantime, their savings wallet keeps growing http://blockchain.info/address/1HgTJED7XEGy4vVwKa8kgefWqUB3VRX2mW

I'm pretty sure that's a shareholder's dividend address. If you divide the payout every week with that week's dividend, it's always a round number.

than how do you explain this transaction?

http://blockchain.info/tx/ba3f92c3e9fe1aba37c47e7a2f10ca55ac1498911706693c6c1cc9a18560ca55

It's sending money BACK to div's payout address

[reedlaw]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

[SebastianJu]

The interesting possible counter to all this is that Friedcat and the Board should consider the following:

- Change dividend policy to monthly (or even quarterly)
- Change update policy to the same frequency

The reality is that since AM is a privately-controlled company with a minority listed on exchanges and it is not seeking to raise money since it's very profitable, it has no reason to be wasting it's time dealing with the absurd frequency of updates and dividends demanded in the Bitcoin World. That way it could officially just concentrate on running the business.

As I've said before, I'm involved in a few big private companies as a Director, Investor or both. Not one of them provides either a shareholder update or a dividend more frequently than quarterly.

What do you think what amount of time the div payment will take? I think it will be pretty low time. Friedcat calculates the income, checks what he should keep back for investment, calculate the earnings through the shares, insert those numbers in a script and click send. Thats it. I think its a good idea to check the income weekly and i dont think that a reasonable amount of time can be save to do this 1 time instead 4.3 times a month.

No updates are not very good but that will take a bigger amount of time. Probably there isnt much to tell at the moment.

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

[JimiQ84]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Profit margins cannot exceed 100%.

Please learn what you are talking about.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profitmargin.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_margin

[binaryFate]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

[deadgiveaway]

What's asicminer's plan to stay competitive?

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

[velacreations]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

[freedomno1]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.

[tinus42]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL.

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.

[Vycid]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL.

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.