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1201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 07:34:16 PM
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  Shocked

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
1202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 06:01:26 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days


Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?


There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha

On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....

So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.

Sane reasoning there, J.
I am a poker player, so i always try to expect the unexpected, even if against the odds. Since Bitcoin didn't do this (tumbling because of bans and politics) before, this cycle, could as well be longer than those in the past. The odds that Bitcoin will persist are above 99,9% though, just because it's great and fits that narrow gap which fiat can't close, as it is.
1203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 05:35:56 PM
Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  Wink



Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.

EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.  Roll Eyes

EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So
1204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 04:07:57 PM
Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol.  I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right.  I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 
It's all good man, I was just pointing out that I realized my execution of EW was bad.
Deserved haha.

I was even taking it as a good joke, ala proudhon and the likes  Cheesy
1205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 01:19:11 PM
Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame


Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

I am not sure (Idiocracy meme here) if the EW Theory is appliciable to Bitcoin anyway, because of the halvenings and adoption rate.
As for conventional assets, well, would suit a lot better, imo.
1206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 12:56:07 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days


Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?


There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
1207  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 26, 2022, 08:15:11 AM
^I wish I could unsee that.


I can  Cool
I don't even have to do anything to unsee things.
That's the big plus of my little memory condition  Tongue Grin
 
1208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 06:57:52 PM
Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year. Angry



Search for some advice from the Covid Thread.
Get yourself some nasal spray containing more than 1,2% of carrageenan extract. Use it also for the throat.
It reduces viral load quite efficiently, saves your immune system a lot of (hard) work.
Stay hydrated. I mean 4 liters per day, like half a glass in about 15 minutes throughout the day.
Wish you the best!
1209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 06:02:38 PM
Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink

That makes no sense OOM.

Think again:
If you'd have mined BTC at a price of $300 (for example), how can $35k be the bottom?  Huh
Sure, it's not the best profit for a miner, not as much as selling to exchanges at $69k, but it's quite far from "selling at the bottom".

You are not helping to cause any reassurance that the mining costs directs BTC spot price.. There is a lot more going on with the BTC price regardless of that one factor, and you should know that by now... price following hashrate is not reflected in the empirical evidence, but hey, you can believe whatever you like and draw whatever correlations you like including cause and effect directions, too..

And for sure it is even more problematic when you pick such a minority factor in terms of attempting to figure out BTC price dynamics when there are other factors... as I already mentioned .. including stock to flow, 4 year fractal, exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (yes mining is one of the 7 network effects.. so it is part of something to consider but surely no leader)....

I think that you are going to have a tough time if you are too overly dependent on your miner costs controls the price narrative, and also likely to miss out on some other important ways of attempting to understand BTCs price... .. but hey.. do what you like... you are not going to get me to go along with such shadows on the wall theories in regards to the miners role in BTC price dynamics.

Hmm, i don't even believe in any "miner costs control price" dynamics. It can only have a tiny fraction of influence on the price, i'm not that dumb Smiley
Seems like the good ol' misunderstanding, but i am not too surprised, because i picked out a wee aspect of a complex system, where one output parameter results in the property "price".
But the initial thought was quite simple and might have mislead you in believing that i look at the market in a simple way. Well, sometimes i do, when i try to explain bitcoin to noobs (rarely) but that's a whole different story. To be honest, my understanding of market details and their dependencies is very limited, but every now and then some new understandings click into place, and your detailed posts about the matter also contribute to this more often than not.
1210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 10:53:09 AM
Long time I have been hearing from Roger actually and much longer from that Jihan character

Both forked themselves into irrelevancy

Roger pretty much disappeared from everywhere...
Bitcoin talk: Not Active
Twitter: Dead
Reddit: disappeared
But it is very active non.. Drumroll..

Instagram!


Not a nice view, tbh.


A coke withdrawal and its consequences just aren't nice to view  Wink

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

...

... respect. Welcome to the All-In Club.

... relax,  leave the old world behind as much as you can.

FTFY:
... relax,  accept the old world as much as you can.

for no being a part of it any longer

Poor fiat-evangelists deserve some empathy, don't they?

Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink

That makes no sense OOM.

Think again:
If you'd have mined BTC at a price of $300 (for example), how can $35k be the bottom?  Huh
Sure, it's not the best profit for a miner, not as much as selling to exchanges at $69k, but it's quite far from "selling at the bottom".
1211  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 25, 2022, 10:49:13 AM

With Omicron, the need for Ivermectin has practically gone to zero. Carrageen nasal spray is the best thing you can do at the time, reducing viral load in the parts of the body where the virus primarily replicates, which are nose and throat. Additionally NAC, Quercetine and Vitamin C, possibly Vitamin D to downregulate inflammatory markers. With Alpha, Beta, Delta and the so called "wild type", Ivermectin still makes sense, maybe even with future variants, but the dosage is key. Too little and it has no effect, too much and it can cause some serious trouble.

An immune system needs to take a breath between infections (immunizations), too, i guess?
Would make sense, not backed by scientific data, though.

The whole idea of keeping antibodies at an elevated state in one's body, all the time, is completely insane and contrary to good health. Having ongoing elevated antibodies is called chronic inflammation, and it's bad for the body's systems. Like really bad. It can lead to a whole host of health problems and auto immune diseases.

Infection is supposed to be a very acute, short term thing your body has to deal with. A healthy, functioning immune system learns how to make antibodies to attack a perceived threat, generates them until the threat is gone, and then stores that learning of antibody production into long term T-cell memory. That's the whole point. Antibodies are supposed to go away once that threat is gone. And yes, this IS backed by Biology 101 and evolutionary science.

So if the point of the vaccines was to help your body's immune system learn how to make antibodies and store that into memory, then why the need for endless, ongoing jabs and boosters to "keep your antibodies elevated"? You're basically walking around in a chronically inflamed state, all the time. Insanity for the ignorant.


As science and research really got boosted Cheesy through Covid, a condition called T-Cell Anergie ("Unergy", opposed to "Energy") was looked more close at, which takes place when T-Cells are confronted with antigens too often, like regularly in HIV and Cancer. This is why it makes sense to suppress the immune response in these patients. Anergy describes a condition of T-Cells which no more react to specific antigens, because of "exhaustion". This is probably what periodically vaccinated people are going to experience, the WHO is already aware of and doesn't reccommend a fourth shot (hello, Israel?).
It was also what i was suffering from in my health condition. I had flus all the time in winter, the blood test was showing too many T-Cells but many of them "didn't react" against the flu antigens. So i got exhausted, never got a fever to clear out the bugs from my blood and constantly suffered symptoms from a cold.
Also, in Long Covid patients, parts of virus DNA are still detectable in the stool and various tissues, long time after having tested negative.
The immune system is confronted with a heavy load and in turn, T-cells are practically burning out. So it's not a big surprise that an mRNA vaccine shot after long covid reactivates the immune response via mRNA mechanism, instead of presenting antigens like it would be the case with a natural infection, which in turn clears out the remains of the virus.

This vaxxing mania will likely bring up many subsequent challenges to keep us busy. As so often, politics and "big pharma" fucked us up, again.
That's why i never get vaccinated, with the exclusion of well tested, conventional vaccines which are still about to get approved and rolled out in Q2/2022.
Until then, i continue to routinely protect myself, my loved ones and the people surrounding us.

Thanks to Bitcoin, i can pay the fines for not getting vaxxed, and if the mandate law fails the consitutional court, i'll even get my worthless fiat money back.
1212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 07:19:47 PM
stonk refugees would also see a beautyful island in BTC if the FED blows up the market tomorrow.
Too good to be true?
No?

EDIT: On the downside, the flip-back would be painful as well.

EDIT2: Maybe inflation will be fixing this, too  Tongue
1213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 06:34:30 PM
Modest $3000 relief pump.



With good volume and no frightening high sellwalls, yet.
This may get exciting.
1214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 06:18:35 PM
Anybody going to sell into this little pump? I see the stock market continues to bleed and worst case is we see a real massive dump coming. I dont know much about the stock markets. But it feels very different this time.

There's that stock market crash narrative going round since a few days, too...
(Fire alarm currently in the background - fits perfectly)

Considering to set a few sells on the way up to buy back later, still trying to figure out at which level(s).
Of course only the (tiny) "play stash"...

EDIT: Will this be the "epic bounce" some crypto twitterers were about lately?
1215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 06:11:56 PM
A second leg up in this little run that breaks 35575 decisively would be exactly what we need next. Smiley

Just sayin.

I love those times, especially while watching the 1m chart  Cool
Just got online a few minutes before the little run up.
1216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 05:58:07 PM
Ants starting to work.
 Cool


Nice fight going on right now... but there are still plenty of sellers, and more coins coming to the exchanges...  

I would REALLY hate to see this do anything more than spike below 30k. But we are going to need some serious firepower to avoid that at this point.  Can happen though... the FED's decision is imminent.


Couldn't "more coins are coming to the exchanges" mean that exchanges actually buy from miners at the bottom?
They have to transfer their corn to their hot/cold wallets, don't they?
Of course it would look like "long time hodlers selling soon"...

Amirite?

Yeah.  That's true... But retail has not been buying much at all during the last 1-2 years.  And it seems sort of weird for miners to hold out to sell at the exact bottom.


Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink
1217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 05:44:46 PM
Ants starting to work.
 Cool


Nice fight going on right now... but there are still plenty of sellers, and more coins coming to the exchanges... 

I would REALLY hate to see this do anything more than spike below 30k. But we are going to need some serious firepower to avoid that at this point.  Can happen though... the FED's decision is imminent.


Couldn't "more coins are coming to the exchanges" mean that exchanges actually buy from miners at the bottom?
They have to transfer their corn to their hot/cold wallets, don't they?
Of course it would look like "long time hodlers selling soon"...

Amirite?
1218  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: January 24, 2022, 11:48:06 AM
Quote
Scottish data shows that the COVID-19 age-standardized case rate is highest among the two-dose vaccinated and lowest among unvaccinated! It further shows this trend of negative efficacy for the double-vaccinated persisting for hospitalizations and deaths. Something is very wrong here, and together with other data points, it raises concerning questions about the negative effect of waning antibodies, constant boosting, and the consequences of a leaky vaccine with narrow-spectrum suboptimal antibodies against an ever-evolving virus.

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-very-concerning-data-from-scotland

... now good evidence  that if you've only had 2 jabs you NEED a booster or you'll be worse off than jab-free

... these jabs will be endless because they create dependency on more jabs to prevent worse outcomes from the vaccine enhanced disease caused by previous jabs, as Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche was warning about

... if you're on the jab train already now you're basically in for a rough ride if you try to get off ... or fucked, (most people do NOT want to hear that now of course so likely react violently to such a message)

IF you, for the sake of this example, look at alpha/delta vs. omicron spike proteins as two different subtypes of coronaviruses, the immune system of freshly boostered inidividuals would like see itself confronted with two threats shortly after another, which could explain the lessening efficiency.
An immune system needs to take a breath between infections (immunizations), too, i guess?
Would make sense, not backed by scientific data, though.
1219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2022, 09:49:28 PM
127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

To be honest, you have no idea what you're talking about ... since, the 60 billion dollars you mentioned will never go to Ukraine, and secondly, the European Union will not cut off its own leg by entering into a military derby against Russia, especially when it comes to Ukraine. Btw, the population of Ukraine is 50 times more loyal to the Russian contingent than to the European one, (especially since the Ukrainian and European mentality are extremely different from each other).

The UK did step into that boat, however, recently selling anti-tank weaponry to the Ukraine.
A sane leader would just divide the country into a russian and ukranian part following a public voting.
But the crimea is strategically priceless. Russia won't let any other superpower mount troops there. Ever. Everybody who is not blinded yet can see this.
And as you said before, Russia doesn't have to "invade" the "russian" part of Ukraine, because it practically is russian, by means of population.
Germany/EU is only hurting itself in sanctioning RU, i don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the CIA having had most of EU's member governments under surveillance for quite some years. They even tapped the smartphone of Angela Merkel.
How many dickpics do you have to find on her phone to be able to blackmail her?  Grin
1220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 21, 2022, 09:00:33 PM
There is volume and resistance, bulls are still fighting.
Curious how the weekly candle will look like.

off to bed, have a good #hodlsleep Smiley
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