I've never heard anyone in a real leadership position in Russia make much mention of the use of nuclear weapons at all,
I'm somewhat surprised that neither Russian State media or any of your conspiracy youtubers have discussed the nuclear threats Medvedev has made. He does it all the time. Nobody here in Russia takes Medvedev seriously. It seems that after the death of Zhirinovsky, he occupied the niche of an outrageous freak in the political arena. In short, an ordinary clown like Zelensky. Oh, the mythical counteroffensive... sure, keep your eyes on Bahkmut, no need to notice the 40 thousand motorised troops being massed in the Zaporilla area. Do not look there, nothing is going to happen in the next 3 weeks. Nothing at all. An the explosions in Sebastopol were again, RF soldiers smoking by the gas barrels. There is no resistance and no partisans in the zone. Nothing happening.
Of course, there will be an attempt at a counteroffensive from Ukraine, otherwise why these deliveries of tanks and training courses for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the West. I called it mythical because the chances of success are close to zero. No no... all Leopards, Challengers, Bradleys and Abrams have been destroyed by precision rockets. No offensive action is planned. Just stick to Bakhmut, keet your artillery there, keep using your ammo there and risking the SUs. As you say, there is nothing to fear because the chance of success are so low... in fact, just remove the troops from there and send them to help in Bakhmut. It is much more important than keeping the land bridge to Crimea. As Branko says, it is all part of the plan. ..  Any predictions for where we will be March 2024? I do not know, but I am still buying tanks in good condition. 100 USD per unit, 60 USD if they are Armata because they do not really work, delivered to the Polish border please. I also keen on SPGs like the one there, but without the rust. |
|
|
|
I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. Geographically, Bakhmut is located in a lowland, and all the dominant heights around the city have long been controlled by Wagner. I don’t know what political and image dividends Ukraine is trying to extract by continuing to hold the city, but from a purely military point of view, this is madness, comparable to exchanging a bishop for a pawn in a chess game. The sacrifice may be justified if you have a sharp attacking combination play, but now it looks like a rather pathetic attempt to just buy some time to prepare for the mythical counter-offensive to Melitopol to cut the land corridor to the Crimea. It seems that this is the ultimate dream of Ukrainian military strategists. Oh, the mythical counteroffensive... sure, keep your eyes on Bahkmut, no need to notice the 40 thousand motorised troops being massed in the Zaporilla area. Do not look there, nothing is going to happen in the next 3 weeks. Nothing at all. An the explosions in Sebastopol were again, RF soldiers smoking by the gas barrels. There is no resistance and no partisans in the zone. Nothing happening. |
|
|
|
I do not think there is an advantage to the attacker, irrespectively of the means of each. For what I am getting in interviews the RF does advance, but the cost in lives is very high. Basically they are sending "human decoys" to "detect" Ukrainian positions. Ukraine would have left the place if they felt it was not the right place.
I am going to leave to you to think why have they decided that it is the right place. Why are they there, why are they holding the place and what they may be waiting for. You do not need to be a genius to answer that.
As side note, the range of HIMARS means they do not have to be "there".
Meanwhile, the RF air force has decided that it is ok to down US drones in international waters. I wonder what may happen next.
Himars? What Himars? When was the last time you heard about one? And those "interviews", you really learned nothing from ghost of Kiev, babushkas destroying Russian drones with cucumber jars, and ukrainian grandpas shooting Migs with shotguns? Downing a Mig would take a least a well thrown stone, a shotgun is what sunk the Moskva. Unless that's a fake or someone smoking by the gas tanks. I do not care much about that type of myths, they mean nothing and I do not give credit to interviews on their own. But, there are too many indications, including videos, that Wagner is sending the recruited convicts under threat of execution to the riskier tasks. There is also some video evidence of pretty much suicidal attacks. |
|
|
|
|
China is the only country that matters and is currently maintaining a significant commercial relationship with the Russian Federation. Without the huge exports and imports from China and to China, Putin and his Psychos would not be able to pay for a prolonger war. If anyone thinks that the China Communist Party is doing this for friendship and love should really give it a second thought.
What is the price? Transfering the latest tech? Intelligence data? Support for the future invasion of Taiwan? 50% discount in oil for 10 years? ... Xi Yinping could be now in Moscow asking for pretty much anything he wants - he is got Putin by his little balls.
|
|
|
|
Well, yes, another ridiculous attempt to make Russia a pariah country by outlawing its president. It is especially hypocritical that this legally insignificant PR action was carried out against the backdrop of the 20th anniversary of the illegal US invasion of Iraq. The International Criminal Court knows full well that it has no authority to try the (with diplomatic immunity) president of a country that has not ratified the Rome Statute. This is another empty informational occasion, not worth much attention, in a politically biased topic that has nothing to do with the economy.
The current government of the RF is making itself a pariah - what would you expect to be if you invade your neighbour and to add, send there troops that are know to rape, steal and kidnap people and have done it before? You are seeking hate, and you get hate. The RF government were also expecting to terrorise others into submission, but that failed. Regarding the ICC, I think they have to rule against Putin because there is so much evidence of war crimes that they do not really have an option not to do it. I do not think is a good idea because it does not get anyone any closer to peace. It is much more difficult to agree the terms of the RF withdrawal from all Ukrainian territories, the return of all the forced deportees and the payment of reparations if the government of Ukraine has to do so with a now convicted international criminal. Politically, much more difficult to be accepted. I hope they do not decide to condemn Lavrov as well. You have to keep the phone line open, even if you are talking to criminals. |
|
|
|
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64975766The US military has released footage of a Russian jet crashing into one of its drones over the Black Sea. The US said the damage to the large drone meant it had to be brought down into the water near Crimea on Tuesday. Russia denied its Su-27 fighter jet clipped the propeller of the drone, but the video appears to back up the American version of events. It was in the Pentagon's interest to release this video - not least to verify its version of events. Even with this clear proof that the Russian warplanes assaulted the US drone, Kremlin is still denying that it was an intentional attack. They claimed that the MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed into the Black Sea because of the manoeuvring by the Russian fighter jets. Reuter reported that the two pilots of the Russian jets have been given an award by the defense minister Sergei Shoigu. If this award or recognition is real, it shows that the Russians are pleased with this military incident. The US might be able to overlook this attack because no life was lost but I don't know how long this patience will last. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-defence-minister-decorates-pilots-downing-us-drone-2023-03-17/I would have guessed those drones had some self-destruct mechanism, so the enemy won't get them in one piece, I guess I was wrong.
The Russian military have announced that they have recovered the crashed drone from the sea. This is not the first time a US drone have been brought down. It has been brought down in Iran, Afghanistan and Yemen. Most of these drones have self-destruct systems to avoid transfer of illegal transfer sensitive information and technology. As far as I am concerned, they could announce the resurrection of Lenin and it would have the same credit from me given the massive disinformation effort going on every day and every hour. But yes, as you say, there is not much to be learnt, but still... 100 USD million just for the fun. It is a costly joke to be honest and kind of a statement about the matter of espionage. |
|
|
|
Seems to me from the stories I’ve read that they were trying to capture the drone? It’s hard to tell. I’ve seen articles where they make it seem like this was an accident and I’ve read articles that this was a clever way to gather our technology. Regardless of the true reason, this does appear to be another escalation towards WWIII. I think the only thing left to make it official is for China to choose sides and engage in military action.
The video has already been released and shows an RF fighter jet literally throwing fuel over the drone to down it, without really "downing it". There is some probability of this being intentional as the US cannot search for it there even if they knew where it fell, but also it is quite difficult for the RF to get anything from there. All summed, it seems that is just the way the RF Airforce shows the finger to the US, by making them loose 100 million (cost of a drone) for fun. |
|
|
|
Doubting Real Madrid in the Champions League is clearly absurd, but nevertheless they must hope that there is a new candidate as a winner instead of just Real Madrid always filling the title cupboard.
After all not everyone is a fan of Real Madrid, while many people are also fans of the Premier League team which represents one of the best leagues in the world right now. You have to understand otherwise, so it's not because they don't realize Real Madrid's greatness as the king in the Champions League. I'm not even a Real Madrid fan, but I watch their match a lot instead of just talking about it all the time.
Last season many didn't believe Real Madrid will be able to win the Champions league, and this season people don't still have strong believe in real madrid winning the champions. Real Madrid defeating Liverpool in the first and second leg competition speaks a lot about Real Madrid. I believe Real madrid is a strong team that can always get what they want. Real Madrid stands a better chance of winning the champions league this season than every other team in the Champions league. There is a lot of chance involved in winning a major competition. Take for example the world cup, it was between Argentina and France and anyone could have won because they both were perfectly able to succeed at the endeavour. It is the same in all major competitions, there are always 5 or 6 teams that have a go at the win and the randomness is part of the competition. |
|
|
|
Against the house, I do not think so. However there are some cases, in games that are more open and do not have a built-in bias in which the AIs can win against other players. I do not see any problem in letting an AI play poker and learn until it becomes a decent player. It certainly works with chess and dog-fighting with planes in certain situations. We will have to get used to it. |
|
|
|
Opinions and predictions are always welcome.
Do you have a percentage of won bets? Or as the user above asked, can you post your past bets?
Besides posting some prediction, I find it interesting to also explain why you made that bet.
I have only made bets on soccer and teams that I know, in the championships that I know. I always try to bet on simple victories, some matches I bet on the number of goals, and once in a while I make some multiple bets (I'm trying to make multiples on the Portuguese championship, it's still in tests).
But I've been getting something like 70% of won bets, approximately, so far I have a small profit in my bankroll.
It is great to count with yet another opinion on bets and another guy claiming to get you the moon (and then giving you cheese) but despite that being perfectly all right, I have thought about the title of the post, slightly misleading, but the concept is something to be discussed. Do you think that some of your bets have been a waste of time? Did you learn anything? |
|
|
|
https://nypost.com/2023/01/15/gambler-loses-massive-1-4-million-bet-on-chargers-jaguars-game/One bettor wasted a massive $1.4 million wager after betting on Los Angeles before the Jaguars mounted an epic comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30, according to Action Network’s Darren Rovell. It seems that a gambler has loss this massive amount (1.4 million USD) playing a bet with an odds lower than 1.01! (exactly 1.008) I think there are several lessons here: - there is not easy bet! even lower odds there is always a risk. - it's really risky playing an huge amount. This not helps gambler because the risk is much much higher then rewards! - gambling is not easy at all! it's really hard achieve a profit even for easy games! A million dollar for a risk which returns doesn't amount to a significant figure based on the odds. The amount expected to be won doesn't worth the amount of risk exerted and maybe the said gambler didn't think this through because he might have felt it was a good odd for easy win since it was a 1.01 odd but the truth is that in gambling there are no easy win, do your analysis well before executing any bet no matter how attractive the odds might seem. Most of these small odds are deceptive odds that gambling platforms are using to manipulate gamblers as they get carried away by the odd size. I am not sure we would be talking about this situation if the guy had actually won the bet. It must happen from time to time that someone is able to get a significant return on a risky bet, but it seems that the talk is about the poor guy that looses a fortune. I am sure there must be cases in which someone won 1.4M against the odds and do not get a thread here. |
|
|
|
|
It depends on your own ability to refer. Most people will be on the lower side of the curve unless they have some real influence and will get not much from refering, but some good influencer will actually get strong benefis from referrals. It is more about choosing the right program and about your own ability to get it to work for you as well as for the site.
|
|
|
|
The RF economy is quite resilient in general and exports measured in USD necessarily have to go up as prices are now under inflation pressures. But do not forget that those are big numbers, people running from the country tell a different story and a multi-decade long population decrease also tell a different story. Now, paying for war is expensive, so great to look at the "income" side, but, in your view, what is the daily cost of keeping the army and the mercenaries active? (hint: some sources speak of between 0.5 and 1 billion a day). This means that only paying the war effort has already eaten more than half of the exports, and that is without considering the need to replace "tanks" and other weapons platforms, which it may simply be not possible. Another year of war, another 300 billion that will be taken from schools, medical, roads and infrastructure, factory products, ... But, if you think that was part of the plan, ... great, all going to plan. |
|
|
|
|
Yep, Swiss Credit and Silicon Valley Bank. The markets are wondering very rightfully which one comes next. It seems that you need a financial crisis every 5 years of the FED and other start forgetting what are they there for. I am concerned about how this may end up, along with the effects on bitcoin - in the past a efuge, but now linked to other financial assets.
|
|
|
|
I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. Just stay away and fire few salvos from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1Then wait for Ukrainians to replace soldiers you just killed Repeat Wait for the TOS to fire, send counterbattery fire, wait for the next TOS. Repeat. Artillery range wise, there is nothing to be done. Does not matter if you use napalm or frag, RF does not have the range advantage, nor air advantage, nor terrain advantage. Intelligence wise and location, Ukraine is getting plenty of "Gospel from the Sky" and has quite an active partisanship work behind enemy lines. This battle place has been chosen by Ukraine and Wagnerites are trying to prove a point... at any cost. What counterbattery? Ukrainians have no artillery worth mentioning there I do not think there is an advantage to the attacker, irrespectively of the means of each. For what I am getting in interviews the RF does advance, but the cost in lives is very high. Basically they are sending "human decoys" to "detect" Ukrainian positions. Ukraine would have left the place if they felt it was not the right place. I am going to leave to you to think why have they decided that it is the right place. Why are they there, why are they holding the place and what they may be waiting for. You do not need to be a genius to answer that. As side note, the range of HIMARS means they do not have to be "there". Meanwhile, the RF air force has decided that it is ok to down US drones in international waters. I wonder what may happen next. |
|
|
|
I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. Just stay away and fire few salvos from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1Then wait for Ukrainians to replace soldiers you just killed Repeat Wait for the TOS to fire, send counterbattery fire, wait for the next TOS. Repeat. Artillery range wise, there is nothing to be done. Does not matter if you use napalm or frag, RF does not have the range advantage, nor air advantage, nor terrain advantage. Intelligence wise and location, Ukraine is getting plenty of "Gospel from the Sky" and has quite an active partisanship work behind enemy lines. This battle place has been chosen by Ukraine and Wagnerites are trying to prove a point... at any cost. |
|
|
|
I think Russia has no reason to take Bakhmut...why chase enemy when other side is readily bringing new soldiers for
easy kill
Have you taken a look at the map? What can you see in the vicinity of Bakhmut? Elevated positions with cover of rocks, trees, hills, river banks? Do you see anything in there that looks like a good attacking position? No, you do not, it is exactly the opposite - You will see a nightmare for the attacker, were they are detected klicks away from the defending positions. Would you like to be the attacker there Branko? Can't people just google before saying something silly? The only reason to attack it is because it is the Donbas and the RF needs to take the Donbas to be able to sell some short of "victory" to the world. Wagnerites are expendable, people from Dagestan and other satellites of Moscow are spendable. As I write this post, I am looking at the videos of Ukrainians training in Leopards. They seem veeeery pleased. |
|
|
|
The African population is diverse. It is estimated to be roughly 1.3 billion individuals, but I think this figure is too low. With a population of over 54 nations, many of which are densely populated, Africa is the second most populous continent in the world. It is challenging to determine the accurate population of Africa because each of these nations has its own unique demographics and dynamics.
In estimating the African population, there are few reliable statistics. Since many African nations have limited access to data collection and processing methods, the information they do have is frequently stale or lacking crucial information. Secondly, it is challenging to precisely track population migrations, births, and deaths in many African countries due to the lack of accurate demographic records. This implies that it is challenging to determine accurate population figures for Africa.
I have basically 0 knowledge of how they do a census in Africa, or if there's any scientific method at all to learning the population of Africa. I would however believe that the population numbers are hilariously wrong. Not just for the challenge of tracking population, but because the birth rates in African countries are as much as 5x higher than birth rates in some Western countries. I could see scientists not taking this into account and sticking with their estimates as if they were correct using Western standards. Africa is quite a bit different than the rest of the world and as smart as scientists are, they can be pretty dumb when they all get on the same wavelength. Look at the vaccine. Any self thinking individual could tell that was going to backfire, yet plenty of liberal scientists are still saying it's the right thing to do. These idiots will literally make fun of anti-vaxxers until they fall over and die from their rushed unsafe vaccines. I doubt they can accurately count a continent they don't even understand or step outside their established population models to think for themselves. Amazing, how can you convert a post about the difficulties to estimate the population in Africa into a rant over the vaccines, criticizing the "scientist", the liberals... It is so obvious how many wake up in election year so much. Anyway, census is not the only issue in Africa. Infant mortality in many countries, particularly in the countryside goes sky-high, but there is something happening that is even worse: there are no longer news. News outlets have been closing offices in Africa country after country because they cannot inform. |
|
|
|
|
I would like to have a link to said footage. As of now we have several killed, obvious images of people carrying weapons and means of destruction, layers stating they do not know how to be lawyers and someone who could have called it out and did not. A link to a media showing 5 or 6 pictures of Trump in an article, but not the core information or a link to it makes little sense to this one.
|
|
|
|
This whole thing is getting more absurd (and obvious) by the day.
Over and over everyone keeps talking about Russia doing their 'greatest offensive.' Everyone except Russia that is.
Russia said they were going to de-militarize Ukraine. There is no better and less costly (in human life) way than to have a grinding war of attrition which lasts for years, provided the fighting is done at a time and place of one's choosing.
[...]
Take Bahkmud; Kiev evacuated their chosen (the Nationalist swastika-bearing units) out a while ago and stuffed in all of the child soldiers, old men, etc that their commissars kidnapped from around the country that they could. Exactly like stuffing handfuls of meat into a grinder. Then they let the Russians close the flanks until there was only one muddy road in which is under fire control of the Russians from ranges where the Russian artillery is untouchable. To top it off, they blew up the bridge needed for those who make it through the turkey-shoot.
(*) These 'mistakes' are not novice mistakes on the part of military buffoons. These are well executed plans to 'lose' by people who knew what they were doing. I'm ever more convinced of it. It makes perfect sense if you re-evaluate what 'losing' and 'winning' means to various people.
BTW, a very similar thing is happening in the U.S. with respect to the 'mistakes' made by their decision-makers related to NATO and this operation. America is slotted for demolition also, and by the same basic groups of people.
As usual, raw and senseless propaganda without any source nor any need to justify anything that is said here. This is just food for people who already have their stomach full of the official mantras or want to believe that the RF army is under any kind of control of what is happening in Ukraine. An interpretation that matches reality: Ukraine does not leave Bahkmud because, despite being under a strong offensive, they can make the untrained, enslaved and sometimes criminal wagnerites pay 100 men for each square meter of land. Even a troll like you must be aware that there are public discussions between Pringozin (Wagner's owner) and Shoigu, including accussations of lavish vacation for the children while their negligence sends RF soldiers by the hundreds to serve a soil fertiliser. Contrary to him, you presented ample amount of data to strengthen your words...videos, links, pictures... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAogk_0XbCYAs I said, it is an interpretation that matches reality. If you need links and information about the RF loses in Bahkmud is easy to find, you can google it yourself. There is no point in pretending that the RF is in control of when and how the fight takes place, because it is Ukraine's choice what, where and how is defended. The RF needs to advance over whatever Ukraine has prepared. Logically, the defence happens in those places in which the RF loses are expected to be much larger than Ukraine's. Anyway... have a links if you need them https://www.ft.com/content/ce9723c7-d7e6-4f74-b50e-d145ab8bd5dfhttps://news.yahoo.com/russian-warlords-fiery-feud-putins-120045803.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJIKs2xiv01JtN8XRQ7LlLikBhPBxTGNx0aRdGYxRcTACTcivJ1fJe25cfHKwJFsm1rZPYNosLNm7C2pKTHj5mssr9v9OsQftSno84vqGMnRBSJsJLfGKaJ-p4FXdMmGgQ4OjO-5K0pUBouXUN-LVrN8kkLRg8GgzFd3m3V_TPr4https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-01-09/the-head-of-the-russian-mercenaries-breaks-kremlins-law-of-silence.htmlThe head of the Russian mercenaries breaks Kremlin’s law of silence
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the businessman at the head of the Wagner group, takes advantage of his political and media projection to break a taboo: public criticism and threats against other members of Russia’s elite ... Yabut, he and I sort of balance each other in the same direction. And I bring enough info so that he doesn't have to bring as much.  BA... again forgot to take your meds? Your credibility is non-existing. There is no balance. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
