It seems like your fan5 is weak


also for some reason it completely stops at some point, could be a low-quality fan, is fan 5 the front or the back fan? can you switch them and make sure they both are facing the same direction (blowing air into the same direction in is where the LAN port is).

I said it is very unlikely we pass 75k this year, you thought that me thinking that btc has some sort of price limits was wrong, so if 75k isnt the limit and i turn out to be wrong, we might go a lot higher levels, That will make me "richer" at the expense of being "wrong" which I'll gladly accept.

Better rich than right.

TradingView, search for BLX which has the longest data on BTC/USD, the timeframe used here is 2 weeks, and the rest is just the drawing tools which are available for free on Tradingview.

Thanks for reminding me about this, might be a good time to update it.




Again, as before, the yellow and red areas are levels that usually Bitcoin doesn't spend a lot of time at, every time it goes there, it's either prior to a blow-off top before a crash or a crash before anything else.

I have divided the lower bound into two parts, dark green and light green, the light green is areas where bitcoin usually bottoms after a bear market or a large correction, you can also see that despite the fact that we made a new ATH this month, we didn't go past the green area unlike the previous ATH in march, which means we still have more room to grow, which also proves that the slower we move up the more we can sustain the price, for an example if we get to 100k anytime before April of next year, we are likely going to crash fast and hard, if we go to a 100k in say June of next year we will still be in the green with more room to the upside.

The bottom of the light green channel sits at roughly 19.5k, which means it's almost nearly impossible to ever see 19.5k regardless of when the bear market starts, the upper bound of the dark green on Dec 30 sits at 75k, which means we are highly unlikely going to pass 75k this year, a very sad opinion, but well, I hope I am wrong.

Given how expensive S9s and the other old mining gears are, there is a good possibility that many miners were actually affected by this relatively small correction, I have always said that most folks in this business don't have a clue about what they are doing, almost all the members here including newbies know a lot more about mining than most folks who spend most of their time on Facebook.

Can you imagine that people are asking questions like "why did my payouts drop compared to last week, should I change the mining pool"? I swear, there are folks that literally don't understand that their payouts will go down when the difficulty goes up, they don't even know about the difficulty aspect altogether, heck, I am willing to bet that many of them don't even realize that they are mining at a loss until enough time has passed.

Anyway, I believe the sudden drop in hashrate was also to do with the power outages in Kazakhstan, I saw a few miners who have their gears hosted there talk about this earlier, also the government there is cracking down on the illegal mining farms that don't declare themselves as mining operations to avoid paying the 15% or whatever the tariff on electricity used for mining is.

The state should pay you for writing those pages, jokes aside, it seems like a lot of work needs to be done to prepare your tax files, I am really so glad I don't have that here, the only time I have to report income is if the business is owned by a company of mine and sells stuff to the government, however, if the business is personal-owned and doesn't sell anything to the government, I am free to do whatever I want with my income.

of course, in return, we don't have fancy highways and a perfect health care system and whatnot, but with the almost free power rate I have, I prefer that things stay this way for as long as possible.

Now back to mining, I have already started negotiating for a 1MW facility, hopefully, by the Q2-Q3 next year it will be ready, and then eventually the plan will be 10-15 ph in S9s and a few a bit more effienct gears, but because I want to spend more time with my family, this time around I will have someone to manage the whole farm and share with them a handsome percentage of the profit, this mining game is addicted and I can't seem to stop, but this 10-15ph will be it for me, and from there on, just mine and hodl.

The difficulty will only go up, but it can't keep doing 10% every month forever, as you are aware 10% of 150 isn't the same as 10% of 300, the higher the difficulty the harder the move, and then because shit happens we have been mining at a lower difficulty than we did 6 months ago (because of the China ban), so many things can happen.

You should also be aware of the fact that bitcoin price will also not maintain the crazy gains, if you compare all the previous cycles you will notice that with every cycle the gains shrink, it's called "diminishing returns", eventually running a mining business will be as difficult as running any other business, you will need the right resources and power price to compete.

And, you are wrong about "free energy has to be stolen", the world doesn't revolve around the U.S or a few other countries you know, where I live power is either free or almost free (below half a cent) depending on the place/capacity and a few other factors, eventually you will need to have that free power or a technology edge like owning a mining gear that is more effienct than the rest, or you won't be able to mine, but until that happens all you need to do is pick the right time to buy your mining gears, don't jump in at the peak of the cycle as most people do.

That doesn't change the fact that when buying a mining a gear that mines bitcoin you are essentially buying bitcoin in the future, you could have used that amount of cash to buy BTC and your total BTC holdings compared to what the miner has generated so far is obviously more, but you have a good point about the tax thing "which I am not aware about since we pay no taxes for both buying/selling bitcoin and mining gears".

Bifa also brought up a good point, it all depends on whether your ROI is based on the amount of BTC or just fiat, am not saying there is a wrong or right way, but to me, if it can't ROI in BTC why even bother? holding BTC is a lot less risk, less effort, no power bills, no maintenance, cleaning, downtime, and whatnot, and if the value of that BTC drops against fiat, it also means the income in fiat from the miner has dropped.

To me, mining easily beats both BTC and cash when we are in the sideway market right after a major crash, when the price isn't doing much for a year or two, mining generates passive income in BTC and miners usually make a lot more BTC than just holding btc or fiat, mining also isn't all bad in a bear market, but it fails big time in a bull market when measured against holding just btc.

But again, it all depends on everybody's goals and risk tolerance, there is no right or wrong way of doing this, everyone should be study the market from their own perspective and decide what works best for them, heck, it's hard enough to tell people to invested or not invest in BTC, let alone mining BTC.

I remember those S19s pro were first selling for $2633 when BTC price was about $7150 back on 15th April 2020 (got all these info saved), with U.S taxes and shipping the total cost was $3500 which means those guys paid 0.48BTC for a single S19 pro which they received on June (after the halving), the difficulty went from 14T to 25T back to 13T and had all kind of ups and downs.

So if we say the average diff has been somewhere in between at 19.5T, then for the duration of 534 days since they received the miner they would have made 0.367 BTC before the power bill (using Viabtc online calculator), even if we were to use 15T as the average diff that would still be a total profit of 0.475BTC without counting the power bill.

Even for someone who didn't have to pay the U.S tax and doesn't have free power, it's unlikely that they have ROIed long ago, maybe they just hit that point or about to, of course, you could add about 0.15BTC for the current gear value.

Keep in mind that this bad looking ROI would have been a lot worse if China didn't ban mining and we didn't have this chip shortage going on, if not for all of that, all those who rushed to buy the S19 pro when it landed wouldn't be even close to halfway to ROI, of course, this doesn't to always have to be the case, but it's gives a good indication that  ROI is usually far more extended than what it looks like.

I totally agree with the stuff you mentioned about chip shortage, but we know that have been a major factor in helping those who bought the expensive S19s and that help alone wasn't good enough, not even with China banning mining, so unless the shortage gets more serious which I doubt, chances are nothing is going to change in terms of the ROI terms, but hey, I am more often wrong than right, so.

That's about accurate according to a "maybe leaked" document from Bitmain, the Q4 price is $75/TH,



But the "terms" have changed according to Joe it's now


The listing you saw is direct from Bitmain, with a minimum order of 100-200 (people are reporting different figures but really 100 and 200 isn't much of a difference as far as I am concerned  ), the current retail price for this Q3 is 90$ with a MOQ of 10 pcs, so maybe someone will list MOQ of 1 at $3-7 on top of the $90, let's just go with the 5$ figure, and that will be $95 per TH for the small guys like us so $13,300.

So you pay $4,655 today, then pay another $4,655 two months later, and pay $3,990 in June, hoping to receive it by July.


That would be good for those looking to buy then, not the ones who get the credit or coupons, the average coupon price back then was 20-30% of face value, some even went for as low as 5%, and some for free, so it doesn't help much if by the time you receive gear it's worth 50% less, but who knows? the profitability then could be 2-3x what it is now and you can sell the miner for profit, all I know is that I'll be sitting with my hands under my *** and watch how this whole mess unfolds.

What a nice way to advertise your services, you mentioned all the pros of these 19 series which I would you second you on them, but why not tell them that there are a dozen people complaining about the PSUs on these gears? gosh, seems like bitmain doesn't want to make a perfect mining gear again, people always have to worry about a certain part failing when they have to pay 10k++ for mining gear, isn't it sad?

There is no way around flashing them using an Sdcard, in fact, you are lucky your miners didn't catch the other virus that disables the bootloader and doesn't allow Sdcard flashing, someone had to get 600 control boards to get his miners back to life, so take it easy, if you can't fix the Sdcard slot simply buy a new control board, they sell for pretty cheap since they hardly fail, I give them for free where I live, sadly I can't ship them overseas or else I would have sent you some at no cost.

The unit of measurement you are looking for is called kWh or Kilowatt-hour, any thing that runs on electricity will have a label stating the draw in watts or kilowatts, it will be "W" or "KW".

To convert from W to KW you simply divide the number 1000, and then convert it to kWh you just multiply the KW by the number of hours you want to measure.

Example 1:

For a miner that uses 1200w, we divide it by 1000 to get 1.2k, to check how much it "consumes" in 3 hours, just do 1.2kw*3h = 3.6kWh.

Example 2:

A miner that uses 800w, divide by 1000 you get 0.8KW, to see how much it "consumes" in 30 mins you x it by 0.5 and you get 0.4kWh.

The average 10 or 15 solar arrays on the house roof can't handle mining operations, you will hardly be able to run your own miner on it, let alone "HOST" other people's miners.

If the kernel log stops at fan 1 check then there is something wrong with the firmware, or the control board is dead, try to flash the stock firmware to confirm where the issue might be and then you can revert back to the custom firmware you are using.

Will you be paying him a salary and he would fix all the units you have at no extra cost and in a timely manner? if not  (which is probably the case),  then this point is irrelevant, fixing those hash boards requires both time and money, with the high failure rate your guy will either ask you to pay him more or run away before his back needs some major surgery because he going to be doing a ton of fixing.
 
when you went shopping online didn't you ask yourself why do those T17 go for a lot cheaper than other miners of the same generation and efficiency? well, it's because these gears are nothing but crap.

The S9js are more robust than the T17 by a few orders of magnitude, but they are also pretty inefficient, and 2-5c isn't going to be spared when the bear market hits us and mining becomes barely profitable, with the power rate you have you need something in the middle of efficiency, 40-50w/th is good, this way, you utilize your below-average power rate by not having to pay 100$ per TH for 30w/th gear, and you also won't be forced to shut down soon when the 90w/th gears are no longer profitable at 2-5 cents.

Your best shot would be MicroBT M20s, with about 45w/th and it costs roughly 60-65$ per TH and it's as robust as any mining gear can be, I would not touch the 17 series (without any exception) from bitmain with barge-pole, unless if they are so cheap and you can ROI in like 1-2 months, then it's MAYBE worth taking the risk.

Let's just focus on the S9s, try not to mention the other gears, or else your topic will be moved to the alt section and it's a spam land.

The first thing I would suspect when more than 1 gear start acting weird at the same time would be the network setup, the second thing would be the PSUs, get a cheap multimeter to confirm you are getting 12v on the DC output or use a PC's PSU to test the S9, make sure it's at least 400w and unplug 2 hash boards (keep only 1 hash board).

Usually, the miner itself isn't affected by power-related issues, the PSU will take the hit and die, so hopefully, that will be the case for you.

With the right power rate, nothing is unprofitable, the majority of my gears run at 85-90w/th and I was always running them at a profit, but mining at a profit alone isn't the only indication of a successful business model, if I have to wait for 1-2 years to breakeven on my BTC or fiat investment while taking the risk of owning a mining gear that could very well just die on me halfway I rather just sit on the BTC I have and watch it grow against fiat without having to worry about it as it sits safe and sound in a cold wallet.

The way I picture us is 2017 all over again, I would argue that the cycle has lengthened by around 6 months or so, so I see it as May-June of 2017, looking back at the chart, difficulty and gear prices back then, you can tell that the best move during those last a few months of the cycle was to stay liquid in BTC and sell your way up because a few months later those who paid 2-5k for an S9 were looking back with bitterness at the decision they made.

Not to say that they weren't able to hit ROI later on, but a few months later those mining gears were sold for a fraction of the price mentioned, do I pay 4k for a used M20s when I can probably get it for $500 when this mania phase is over? or do I buy an S9i for $600 despite the fact that I paid $80 for it last year before this fomo takes over? to me, it doesn't make sense at all, and I am very confident that mining gear prices will come crashing next year, the best and the most effienct gear will take 50% hit.

I rather buy them cheap when everyone is selling them not when everyone is buying them, looking at the major telegram and FB groups people are just looking to buy, the demand on all mining gears is sky high, even from those who don't know how to use an online calculator and asking "how much x gear is going for and how much does it generate" are buying mining gears every day, they can't possibly end up making a profit, no business functions this way.

So what's your plan, just buy the new S19s when they hit the market?

My plan is a bit different, I think buying mining gears in the middle of the bull cycle is really a bad idea when measured against holding bitcoin, in all the previous cycles we saw that most gains come in the last 2-3 months of the cycle and then the next 2-3 months will wipe out all those gains, it has always been the case and I don't see why would it change now.

So the theory is, by holding bitcoin when we go parabolic you can easily and slowly sell your coins, but with mining, it isn't the case, you will enjoy 2-3 months of good rewards and then that's it, 3 months later your rewards and the value of the mining gear will most likely be reduced by half in the best-case scenario, which is why I rather stay as liquid as possible especially since we are already 3 years into this cycle and what's left in it is most likely a LOT shorter than what has passed.

I am interested in other folk's plans in regards to expanding or otherwise existing.

The means we need at least 6.40+6.65+6.92+7.19 EH increase for 4 straight jumps, it's hard to maintain which is why I still think we might not get a new ATH before next year, but again since we still have old gears that can come online at any second, let's just expect the words and say that we finish this year with a new ATH difficulty and a total hashrate of 180E.

we know that every 1EH is roughly 10,000 S19 pro which means by then we will need 72,000 S19 pro or the equivalent every 2 weeks(a bit less) to sustain a 4% increase, I think the maximum we can have will be 20-30k gears every two weeks, it so we likely won't be seeing anything above 2% increase once we pass the ATH, so 30T diff by June-July?

Well, in fact, all 3 hash boards are missing zeros, you just couldn't notice the last one because it's missing a single chip.

When you carefully browser through the kernel log you will see the chip count test states the following.


The complete chip count for all S9 miners (excluding S9k and SE versions) is 63 asic, J8 will work fine with 1 missing chip, actually, even boards showing 54 chips will work fine (the hash board is divided into sub-domains only certain chip failure will pass the test), the other two showings 26 and 22 will most likely not produce any hashrate, the most likely scenario for this issue is physical damage to one or more of the chips.

The problem is usually beyond fixing, but trying different firmware, PSU and all that might fix it.