Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it.
Would be nice if we could finally break 38k during the holiday period & stay over. It seems a but of a bitch to break atm.
I am already past 38k I am looking to be over 40k 🔜 edit : 40k is my next 1% sale Phil...listen..I suggest not doing these 1% sales at the verge of a bull market, unless you HAVE to. Peeps were telling this to you before: in 2015-2016, then in 2020-2021 (maybe re shitcoins) and you were arguing that it is all good...it is difficult to move you from that "laddering" opinion that both you and @jjg espouse. Sometimes we all are acting against the better judgement: I sold stuff (not bitcoin) in the early winter of 2020-2021 just before alts and bitcoin went vertical for 3-4 mo. For what: to do the roof replacement. Should I waited a bit considering all that I knew at the time? Absolutely, but the idea of a new roof already "infected" my mind, so...a bit less cap gains. I get it that "sitting tight" as Jesse Livermore was calling it, is difficult, but going backwards, it's the BEST play in the last 20 years in AAPL and AMZN, the best play in NVDA in the last 10, best play in GOOGL since the IPO, best play in MSFT since many decades ago. Eventually, you would not have to sell btc, but would borrow a bit against it, hence NO cap gains. |
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Unless they plan some kind of a double whammy on Binance/CZ, i don't understand why the markets suddenly got all bearish-I think markets are faking it right now.
Binace has 12 bil/Q revenue. I don't know what their profit margin is, but it got to be at least 20-30%.
So, $4bil could be one Q of earnings, roughly.
CZ is worth 50bil, pays 50mil fee, retains ownership.
I don't think that he wanted to be a CEO anymore anyway...maybe Lauren Sanchez has a sister or something or he is attracted to Irina Shayk (as are many other famous people)
To those pooh-poohing Binance and opining about shitcoins (which I typically don't talk about here myself)...
If Binance had gone down, bitcoin would have cratered at least 30%, imho, and bitcoin spread around the world would have been dramatically curtailed since Coinbase is roughly 1/10 of Binance volume, worldwide.
Mind you, I sometimes use Coinbase and/or Kraken because of my location (US), but would I have used Coinbase instead of Binance if i were outside? I am not sure.
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2031 sounds a bit late for me. Generally speaking, it is possible that a some point bitcoin basically plateaus (at much higher levels) and would be going up and down just 20-30% a year.
What I am talking about? I cannot imagine bitcoin going at a 45 degree angle for a decade, but it is possible that bitcoin will very rapidly change it's "state" from a 0.5 tril asset to a 10-20 tril asset (20-40X) and stay there for a long time. This transition could be relatively fast-for example, this cycle and the next one, finished by late 2028, early 2029.
I am not sure why we need to compare bitcoin with GDP when it is mostly an asset that is presumed to be a savings vehicle, at least for a nearest future. We have roughly 500-900 tril in assets and, I believe, bitcoin could be roughly 2-3% of all assets by 2028-2029. In addition, Gold has a 13.1 tril market cap and by 2028 halving, bitcoin's stock to flow (indicating scarcity) would be way higher than gold, making it quite plausible that bitcoin can attain a similar market cap. Both gold and bitcoin are not directly involved in GDP production, or are involved only on a limited basis, for now. |
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[...]
We're all sick of sub $40k.
GO!!!
+1 I'm sick of sub-$40k too. We'd better exceed that by the end of the year, and break ATH sometime next year, ideally Q1/Q2. The upcoming ETF will help get things going (not that I'm a great fan of the SEC). Quoting one of my Sunday haikus: Acronyms galore!
ETF, then ATH.
Vice versa fine too.Vice versa's even better actually, provided it happens in Q1 next year (or as early as possible anyway). 2024 should be a fun year for coiners. 2025 even better. Some vibes on the interwebs (no sauce due to being lazy, but it is easy to find) that Binance is about to enter a $4bil settlement with the SEC. I would consider it a positive development, on the balance, since annihilation of Binance would have been a bigger negative than measly FTX. |
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My haiku Sunday alarm didn’t go off :-) All is well in the grey!
Up waiting to do
Contracts interfering with it
Be calm be resolute
better late then never. Oh my ladder kicked in and I sold 1% of my BTC ladder? I understand if you need the money, but, please, don't use any ladder in an early bull market. Things surely can happen like in early 2020, but typically selling at exhaustion OR some event (like ETF approval) is much more preferable, otherwise you might be prone to selling way way early. I recall someone here fervently selling the dog coin for 1-2 c in a 'ladder' when it actually peaked at 70c Don't be a "ladderite", but a permanent hodler or a seller at the peak (if one is clear). Learn from my own mistakes: sold some btc at $1100, way back in early 2017 just before the fork...listened to one unnamed influencer, which was stupid. Do I miss it? Not really, as I reinvested in something else, but it is annoying to think about it. |
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...
Libertarian Javier Milei just won the presidential election in Argentina.
That is good for Bitcoin as he is favorable to BTC. Maybe that's why the price just ran up $400...?
Wow...a major country President who is into bitcoin? |
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In 52 days a Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved.
In 151 days the block reward will be cut in half.
In 2024 we will see the return of quantitative easing.
In 2025 we will see the mother of all Bitcoin bubbles.
Are you ready?
In 40 days Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved and guess what we will see Bitcoin at $50k even if it doesn't gets approved. In 140 days the block reward will be cut into half and we will see Bitcoin price over $60k or a new ATH that's going to be higher then the previous ATH. In 2024 Bitcoin will reach over $90k by December. In 2025 we will se Bitcoin going over $120k and we will see a new ATH in that year. In 2026-2027 we will see another bear market which may help accumulators to accumulate more Bitcoin. In 2028 A Bitcoin will be worth more than $300k In 2029-2030 a Bitcoin will be over $700k or maybe at $1M. In 2031 most of us would be enjoy the best moments of our lives by selling some of our holdings. 2031 sounds a bit late for me. Generally speaking, it is possible that a some point bitcoin basically plateaus (at much higher levels) and would be going up and down just 20-30% a year. What I am talking about? I cannot imagine bitcoin going at a 45 degree angle for a decade, but it is possible that bitcoin will very rapidly change it's "state" from a 0.5 tril asset to a 10-20 tril asset (20-40X) and stay there for a long time. This transition could be relatively fast-for example, this cycle and the next one, finished by late 2028, early 2029. |
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When supply shock
?
A year after the halving like always would be my guess. Takes time for the market to absorb the selling from those who bought to ride up to the halving, then it takes time to break through established resistance. Finally, it takes time for the market to move up once the supply does dry up. Then you get FOMO and a bubble. I’d say those waiting for the top better be prepared to wait until summer of 2025 at least. I think that it will be earlier, this time. Momentum-wise prior bull peaked in April even though it crawled to a nominal new high on November before quickly reversing. Prior halving occurred in May 2020, so I expect this time we will peak in March of 2025 or thereabouts, maybe even as early as Jan-Feb 2025 considering that bull energy would be likely spent early due to ETF and halving being close to each other, most likely. Early 2020/covid taught me a lesson to not count the spoils of bitcoin investment too early. Maybe we will still have an unpredictable nasty surprise before halving, but as the time passes by, the probability of such event negates, of course, although we still don't know how bitcoin would react to a prolonged recession. |
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In 52 days a Bitcoin Spot ETF will be approved.
In 151 days the block reward will be cut in half.
In 2024 we will see the return of quantitative easing.
In 2025 we will see the mother of all Bitcoin bubbles.
Are you ready?
Way too slow, 2025 is soooo far away... my hope is that the ciuf ciuf train is leaving the station now. This is my timeline: In 51 days a new ATH before the ETF In 150 days 250k before the block cutting In 2024 FIAT will be considered almost worthless, we will see people rushing into bitcoin and metals In 2025 we will see the sun of the bitcoin era arise, an utopian world without debt or central banks In 2026 a solar flare will delete all data on all world PCs In 2027 we will trascend to a new form of collective consciousness, processing data using the computational power of our collective mind In 2028 some of us will find that our collective mind is the product of an alien parasite, and form the rebellion that will overpower the aliens and free the umanity In 2029 we will rebuild our computer and our world. Bitcoin will be the only used currency, my paper wallet (survived from the solar flare and the alien parasitic attack) is now worth the entire European GPD Almost EVERYBODY predicts the "mother of all bubbles" in 2025, which means that either it won't happen or it will happen either in 2024 or 2026  Alien parasite in "collective consciousness'...we already have that "parasite", though, and it's middle name is "social media". Loved the piece about paper wallets surviving solar flare...I guess you can put your ledger/trezor in a Faraday cage, too, besides, if the flare is a "Knowing" type....you know...RIP, unless aliens come to rescue some. |
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Meanwhile this happened (Altman is out of the CEO seat at OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT): https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/11/openai-president-greg-brockman-quits-as-nervous-employees-hold-all-hands-meeting/Not sure if the original story was posted here or not, but I hope that this followup wasn't yet. I still don't know if it is all "good" or 'bad', though, on the balance. Altman was the "face" of AI, but now he is gone from the CEO position together with his company President, Brockman. Nobody really knows why...there is some strange language there about not being forthcoming with the board. We shall see. TL;DR "Sam, I am" Altman is shown the door at OpenAI; employees, VCs and business partners are shocked. Bitcoin is not affected, apart from the fact that Altman thought that bitcoin is a natural progression of money. |
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~snip
What's the difference? mid-December or so, prior to the Christmas Holidays or prior to January 10 and after New Year's.. There seems to be a bit of a crunch in time between new year's and January 10.. but getting it out of the way prior to various holidays might allow for some resolution of the matter.. ..
but then I suppose if they were to wait until after the holidays, then they don't have the holidays getting in the way... but I don't see much of any difference.. unless there is a bit of desire to continue to delay a wee bit.. to make sure that they are not missing anything and prepared once the ETFs go on line.. which could be a bit of a "nothing burger" even though I am anticipating that probably we would end up getting more pump rather than a dump, once they do actually go live.. a pump just seems more likely .. but who knows?
I don't know the US tax code (and from what I understand, nobody does) but up north, capital gains taxes are paid in the year they are realized. There could be advantages to waiting until the new year. yep. an eft dec 10 with a jump to 100k by dec 30 means a sale gets taxed and paid asap. an eft jan 10 with a jump to 100k by jan 30 means a sales gets taxed and paid 18 months later. Somif we get eft in dec we may have a lot of selloffs and fast drops for,jan. while the eft in jan may mean hodl works.an d we don’t drop off like mad. but honey badger don’t care so I guess either one is good. This is not entirely so, in my opinion. You are supposed to pay cap gains (especially when they are large) at the pay date for that quarter in a form of Estimated tax, otherwise if you are paying in 18mo and a LARGE tax is due (more than $1000), you will be hit with penalties (with a special proviso that no penalties are applied if you paid totally in taxes at least the same amount as the year before). Of course, if you are paying in 18 mo and basically square (+/- $1000), then less need for the estimated tax, which I always pay quarterly anyway. So, in my case, if i sell a chunk in December, I would pay estimated tax by Jan 17, and if i sell in January, then the next estimated tax pay date would be April 15, typically (in this case coinciding with the general tax day). I never try to extend 18 mo as i don't have a 18 look ahead to see what I would have to pay then. Paying estimated is easy peasy when you actually got those cap gains. |
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Deployed a bit of cash on the dip...don't care if at the lows or not...market looks bullish and I prefer to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, small dips notwithstanding.
You still seem to be alive.. even though you do the opposite of "best" practices. Go figure. Sure...although buying a dip in the uptrend := buying a dip (or a rip) in the downtrend with the latter being a favorite approach of quite a few here (no names). Besides, I only follow my own recommendations 90-95% of the time. The other 5-10% are a pure flight of fancy/whimsical, so you can potentially call me whimsy instead of wimpy, lol. Sometimes it works and I make 1000% in a short (or a relatively short) time frame, but in a vast majority of cases, I lose smallish amounts of money as a result. |
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Deployed a bit of cash on the dip...don't care if at the lows or not...market looks bullish and I prefer to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, small dips notwithstanding.
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Jade looks like a good candidate for being the wallet to replace my ledger(s).
Passport is clearly the winner. The higher price is well worth it, too (IMHO). A lot of work to do until next week, still found some time to visit a private party in a remote city, and i could at least talk a little about Bitcoin with some people (frens and frens of frens). I didn't reveal my holdings, i was acting like the informed&interested, critical guy, and i took away the impression that BTC is still quite under the radar in the sheeple society. This enables BTC movements in two directions: More future potential to grow, which isn't sounding really new to you guys here, but also more potential for MSM and banks to seed more fear among the less informed and interested, to keep future buyers away. Surprisingly, the "strongest" (in a negatively biased way) argument was like "nosy holders, that got rich by accident and dump on the little guy" (inspired by SBF news coverage) and unsurprisingly also the good old "ponzi scheme" came up in the talks, but interestingly a "bad banks" sentiment seemed to have established as well. Most participants were still drawn to gold. OT: In between, as i needed to create a birthday present for a long time fellow stoner, i successfully created my first high quality THC oil, which proved to be high potent as well  , and will be used for more types of "functional food" (for potheads) like chocolate, peanut butter, bakery products. If THC would be legal where i live, i could create and sell a lot of useful products with good ROI for a living. I'll keep my eyes open for future career options, and i would accept Bitcoin, of course  EDIT: I also heard about "hard to get" Bitcoin in the discussions mentioned above, where i was able to debunk that, as i found out that nobody there knew about BTC coupons, available at post offices, and " BTC-ATM" were well recognized, but nobody tried them yet. Jade has bluetooth, Passport doesn't, but $200 for a "signer" with no long term record? Sounds interesting, though. |
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an enthusiast? afficionado or buff...as well. more in depth: epistemophile and/or sophophileor a lover of learning: philomathonce you learned something by yourself: autodidactAlmost everyone on WO could probably be included in at least one (or more) of those ^^ categories. |
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Buddy thank you for your service.
Thank YOU for your service, Phil. |
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although I listed some for sale at $39,876.50
i listed some for sale too, but at ~$120k usd Yeah I ladder up a bit . 39k 49k 75k 85k 95k 105k 115k 125k 135k $120k - $135k is not even 2x and those numbers should have been reached previous bullrun. This time another halving with tighter supply and ETF's in play. Add $50k - $100k on top of your bearish outcome. today I made 30 posts. so I guess the bull has me going. My projection is 500k for this cycle in fall of 2025. 48 k end of 2023 70k right at the 1/2 ing 111k Dec 2024 500k dec 2025 It's possible, but unlikely. Most likely btc will be dominated by ETF and ETF will be dominated by institutions and those are prone to take massive profits periodically, causing the curve NOt to be exponential. I still think it will be $140-150K at the next peak with next bottom at maybe $60-70K, then to $300-350K at the peak after (in 2028-2029) with $1mil-ish by around 2032-2033. Additionally, I kind of expect a sharp dip in almost everything within the next two-three months to "allow" the Fed to "cleanly" switch to an easier policy. |
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Just sold some at 36303 coinbase.
no it was 36363
maybe we go past 37k
we peaked at about 36633
Selling?!?! WTF my dude. If there’s one thing I learned early on with Bitcoin, it’s that it’s better to wait and sell on the way down then to sell on the way up. You’re no newbie to the 4 year cycle. Surely you must be expecting BTC to hit deep into six figure territory 18 months from now. Does this mean you aren’t dollar cost averaging anymore? yea, for some reason @phil and @jjg always sell on the way up instead of on the way down (or maybe they sell both, I lost track). you don't sell in an early bull, unless you have to due to mining electricity bills, etc. |
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