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521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 02:21:04 AM
* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?
522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 10:04:38 PM
6 million sats for 300 transactions? Paying those on-chain comes much cheaper.

Looks like ~6k to me.
523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 10:02:29 PM

according to CNN, borrowed close to $7 trillion from foreign investors led by Japan and China, which will eventually need to be paid back.


Paid back in what? USD?

Brrrrrrrr.

The real fun begins when a nation says to another: "Oh and BTW - you will repay me this loan in BTC... El Salvador style, please."
524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 01:16:30 PM

Shitforks vainly trying to become relevant?
525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 01:42:18 AM
Will Clemente gets it.

Quote
Think there's a fair likelihood that the Fed has been raising monetary tightening expectations so that markets can rally on "less hawkishness" even though the Fed is still marginally raising rates.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1488647456573296640

Thats not even really a theory, its exactly what they are doing herding sheep.   The sheepdog never attacks just threatens in its posture and the flock moves towards the position wanted.   The base line is they cannot raise rates properly to be above inflation, reason being there is far too much debt issued and ongoing deficits.  Keynes own theory was a surplus must be run also, this never happens.

What you can't reach by deed, you could reach by jawboning.
526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2022, 11:01:54 PM
Will Clemente gets it.

Quote
Think there's a fair likelihood that the Fed has been raising monetary tightening expectations so that markets can rally on "less hawkishness" even though the Fed is still marginally raising rates.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1488647456573296640
527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 06:01:10 PM


As long as McD allows audits to check their Big Mac vaults so they don't rehypothecate the burgerz.

Maybe some of our moles temporarily flippin them burgerz (wen moon?) can tell us if they hear rumors of audits...
528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:55:27 PM


Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

I think they secretly would, although they won't admit it, ever.

The problem is, Putin (or Russia in general) DGAF what "the people" want. Do any rulers ever? What Russia very, very badly wants is a sea port in "warm" waters. Crimea's Black Sea is a good start.
529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:39:47 PM
   So then is the unstated "problem", as I feared, that we have this decentralized, no-trust-required, wealth transfer method that doesn't require an intermediary which anyone can use... including Russia if they are kicked out of the SWIFT club?
Not gonna happen. It really is tantamount to war. Even keeping nukes out of the equation, it would entail cyber-destruction of the world as we know it.

Quote
​Then again maybe we get lucky and Russia, if kicked out of SWIFT, will choose BSV as a payment settlement medium instead in which case I hope.... no! no! no!  I never hope for war.

Not gonna happen, squared Cheesy
530  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:36:19 PM
-multisnip-

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.

tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.

Neato.

I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically?

In a nutshell, no…

I really think what we are not seeing are the second order incentives.  Certain nodes will be incentivized to exist because of trade.  Your grocery store, your hardware store, the convenience store, the gas station.

Banks too will probably have giant, well managed nodes.  Whatever banks are about to morph into.  But I think the retailers... the people we do trade with... those folks will become much more important in commerce.

The doors are going to get blown off the entire system... and most people won;t even see it coming.

I like this post as I liked the one before. You being a legendary and all, I'm not "blowing any additional merit load", as Bob sometimes says, but  as usual, you manage to word my thoughts in a plausible, effective way.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I hope I get to see the picture you're painting while it plays out. It will be sweet.
531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:27:07 PM
Don't give it attention: don't read it, don't comment on it, and don't share it. Any attention leads to more people jumping the wagon hoping for a quick profit.

Cancel INU!  Tongue
532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2022, 04:21:35 AM
Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.
U just wait for the flippening... of fillippone and you will see the true nature of reality!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy




meritz moar meritz
a clash among the titans
fillipponening?




#haiku
533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2022, 07:05:19 PM
These rules of course only apply if you don't own the keys to your coin. In which case, we all know they're not your coins anyway.

I challenge Switzerland or Singapore to block me from moving coins from MY wallet.
534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2022, 01:15:17 AM


By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.  

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.


Down here, be like me
Dip like piña colada
Badass JJG



#haiku
535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 01:50:06 AM
@Torque - And what if...

Paranoia Corner

The IMF is so pissed off by Bukele that they will actively suppress* bitcoin, already in a rough spot at the moment, just to be able to say "We told you! Guys, see what happens when you leave good, reliable fiat for crazy internet money? Poor country's rekt now."


* Short paper btc, buy physical and dump, etc.
536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 01:14:02 AM
Q: "When do I push the BUY button?"

Unclear words of wisdom by Artie 'Sharkey' Hayes ;-)

https://blog.bitmex.com/bottomless/

TL;DR: I want to see 28.5k to call a bottom. Will it actually happen? Not necessarily. Look at corporate bond rate spread for a glance into the near future.
537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 08:18:04 PM
AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING IMF urges El Salvador to remove Bitcoin as legal tender
7:59 PM · Jan 25, 2022·TweetDeck

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1486051087736094729


EDIT: IMF seriously legitimating our lil fiend. This is bigTM.
538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2022, 02:56:37 AM
I do not see a strong position as to what comes in the short term.  But he thinks it's going up, and that the anxiety we are experiencing right now is designed to make us sell or buy.
Quote
"There's only one mistake when you have made the right decision is to get panicked out of your position.  Don't panic."

-The Creed of the Bagholder

539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2022, 05:45:11 PM
Other side and up is good as well, but if down then I prefer it when sleeping, full up my orders and be at the same high or higher as when I went sleeping  Grin

+1 Best stacker feeling. I know what you're talking about.

IOW: Use dips to sleep better, not to lose sleep.

@jbreher, if you hear a ping: I meant to loose sleep.
540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2022, 02:42:12 PM

Meh. Looks like low quality clickbait.

Just some Saylor sayloring. The guy's good, I'm not disputing that, but it's more of the same with some ALL CAPS TITLE WITH AN INCREDIBLE REVELATION AT THE END!!! WATCH 1 HOUR OF STUFF BECAUSE IT'S ME AND SAYLOR! HE WILL REVEAL HIS PRICE PREDICTION AT THE END!!!! CLICK CLICK CLICK

And near the end, Saylor says... guess what?

"It's going up forever."

Uh, allright, thanks, some of us had forgotten that bit.

Uh, well, actually no one did  Wink
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