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1561  Economy / Speculation / Re: RSI gone from "overbought" zone on: January 11, 2012, 03:35:16 AM

...snip...

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha


This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.

I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!

The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.

Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.

...in the middle of the night

THIS. big moves are tough to predict, with or without charts. so my tea leaves work at least most of the time.
1562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Assumption "bears are stupid" on: January 10, 2012, 07:58:06 PM
i know i seem a permabull. it's not mania, it's well-informed speculation. i've been vocal because it doesn't matter how strong BTC is, if everyone thinks there's imminent doom it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. so i've been shamelessly slaughtering any bears who make refutable points.

i apologize if it comes off as flaming. it is, of course, important to keep it civil on a discussion board. let's not let BTC come between us, guys [ :
1563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who just sold? on: January 10, 2012, 07:16:19 PM
I wouldn't sell yet, there will be plenty of dumpers on the way up.  Can't get nervous every time someone gets out. Don't be a wuss. 



remember this dump? and now 5.15 BTC are hella cheap. BB is right, there will be plenty of people itching to get out and cut losses from the crash on the way up. this is good: it will prevent another bubble from forming. but the uptrend will continue.
1564  Economy / Speculation / Re: RSI gone from "overbought" zone on: January 10, 2012, 07:11:26 PM
i also use spaculator as a rough gauge of market sentiment. it's fun to look at how bad people who can't read charts are at predicting prices Tongue
1565  Economy / Speculation / Re: RSI gone from "overbought" zone on: January 10, 2012, 07:06:20 PM
arepo, you skipped the part where you de-frauded the people who claimed to know the future in June (this is just a correction!) Back then, the RSI going from "overbought" was an indicator of a super-massive crash. So I don't see what to make of it right now.

I'm aware that you can be more than 50% right by just betting in-trend for the mid-term all the time. Bitcoiners like to follow trends, so this is often right, but if it's not, the delayed reaction is all the more costly. I never saw chartists predict the big trend breaks in a clear way, it was always after-the-fact clarifications that I got to read. And I'm not impressed at "the trend will continue" predictions, because the statement itself can do that without math whatsoever.

In this case, I don't claim to know the future, the trend might as well continue, though I fear we're clearly in an echo bubble then. My expectation value has somehow balanced out, so I sold a part.

How about you Fourier transform the past for a change, and try to find some operation to match classical markets to the result? That would be a kind of "Technical Analysis" I'd find somewhat interesting. There have been some similarities to NASDAQ and Silver, but the time-scales are all strange. Doing this in a formal way might produce some insight.

i am not only going by the trend indicated by the slope of the RSI. i like to use the RSI, Williams's %, Avg Directional Index, MFI, MACD, TRIX, Accum/Distribution, Aroon indicators, Chaikin's analyses, and the price-volume trend. These are all based on (the only significant indicators) price and volume, or represent smoothed averages which can help determine reversals (take a look at the all-time MACD, its zero-line crossover in the second week of December clearly signaled a reversal, and here we are looking at a high of 7.xx after the so-called 'falling knife').

when the indicators agree, it is clear. when they disagree, which is often, there is usually consensus among some and inconclusivity in the others.

as for elliot waves, that is pretty bullshit because of the idea of pattern-finding. our brains will find patterns in anything -- way too subjective. my readings often go along the lines of like when i made the above prediction: that this is a small correction and not a reversal, mostly because after the dump and the spike back up to high $6.xx, the slow zigzagging down to the wall at $6.00 was underwritten by an UPTREND in the accumulation/distribution line. this almost always indicates that the current price trend is a false flag and is a short-term correction to the trend. four hours after the dump while everyone was preaching gloom and doom i said we wouldn't see prices below $6.00; we still haven't. in fact, bid and ask volume have filled in and if you look at Gox we seem to have almost stabilized. Meanwhile, all the bullish indicators that INAU saw when he predicted breaking $8 are still bullish, and even the RSI is out of the overbought zone because of our convenient correction. we shall continue our upwards march.

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha



IT'S ALIIIIVEE!
1566  Economy / Speculation / Re: call to all follower on: January 10, 2012, 06:29:07 PM
I address to all Bitcoin community. I think, we now are in turning point of time. Selling now we can spoil all further growth. Bitcoin - really underestimated product, the most interesting unique project. Soon about it learns even more people, there will be citations in a press from an exhibition in Las Vegase. Let's forget for a while about personal riches and we will not provoke panic selling. We will strongly not shake the market. Let the price is stabilised, it is necessary to give it time. If now, during an exhibition, there will be a next collapse, the press about it will write negatively and absolutely deservedly. Let's be conscious long-term investor at least what that time. This project anyway will receive popularity, sooner or later. Compare, how many was sites where discussed Bitcoin in a year before last and how many now. Much more. Even the congress USA was reached by news. But also inflating the next bubble, to the project not to help - it will be blown off as quickly as well as inflated. I know, at this forum there are many large players who shakes the market. (At least they read it) easier, guys! Forgive for translate, thanks guys for that that you do!

английски, что переводчик производит неясно, из-за существенных различий в грамматике между русским и английским. Ваши сообщения, как трудно для английского языка, чтобы понять, как это для вас, чтобы понять это сообщение.
1567  Economy / Speculation / Re: RSI gone from "overbought" zone on: January 10, 2012, 09:44:03 AM
Do that same RSI on the June bubble. Wink

Here's the whole year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

I think that back-fired just now, lol. Grin

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future. Roll Eyes

dude. it predicted the correction we just had. because it was, in fact, a correction. contrary to 'melting bid walls' (the thread wherein i posted the below prediction) and any knives gravitating towards the earth, the correction was overdue and the uptrend will now continue. all indicators (chart voodoo, the most powerful magic known to man) remain bullish, the RSI is back out of 'overbought'. as i type this, BTC reaches a new short-term high since the sell-off of $6.65.

four hours after the correction, i posted this:

I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.

also, clear symmetrical triangle since dump, just now followed by a breakout to the new high i mentioned in the above post, confirming bullish trend. seem to be resting on quasi-stable prices at 6.4x
1568  Economy / Speculation / Re: The rocket is secretly taking off. $8 price target within 18 hours on: January 10, 2012, 08:42:24 AM
[troll]
i'm not really a person. im a cleverly devised forum bot meant to permabull and make incredibly accurate decisions pre-informed by the Manipulator so that i can single-handedly drive up prices again and again, solely for profit-taking.

then, of course, i will take over the world.

/troll

You have to put the /troll in brackets...  [/troll] or the forum doesn't recognize what your doing..
[/troll]
1569  Economy / Speculation / Re: RSI gone from "overbought" zone on: January 10, 2012, 08:15:17 AM
Do that same RSI on the June bubble. Wink

Here's the whole year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

I think that back-fired just now, lol. Grin

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future. Roll Eyes

dude. it predicted the correction we just had. because it was, in fact, a correction. contrary to 'melting bid walls' (the thread wherein i posted the below prediction) and any knives gravitating towards the earth, the correction was overdue and the uptrend will now continue. all indicators (chart voodoo, the most powerful magic known to man) remain bullish, the RSI is back out of 'overbought'. as i type this, BTC reaches a new short-term high since the sell-off of $6.65.

four hours after the correction, i posted this:

I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.
1570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where are all these bought bitcoins going? on: January 10, 2012, 12:30:40 AM
I think it is just pump and dump. To get most of the lemmings to start buying you pump up the price. You then can dump many bitcoins this way.

It is the only thing that makes sense. I have seen 50K bidwalls get sold into at around the $2.00 range, they needed to unload many of these.

It is easy to get the price moving up by just buying a certain amount of coins, then you get the lemmings to start buying into it, thinking the price is going to raise above $100. Even makes me get the urge to start buying, but I am smart enough to know that bitcoin prices will go nowhere, and every failed rally attempt will always go back to new lows.

Eventually they will have to sell and let the price drop back down again.

Happens everytime, watched it everytime from the high of $30.00.

People with money can make money very easily, this is just a way to do it.

Bitcoins are also not used up like commodities, so all the bitcoins transfered around are still around. Everyone who held off during this rally, need to unload.

There will be lots of sell pressure now, good chance will we see $2.00 again. 



This is the most ridiculous thing I have read all day, so far.

+100

it's alright crypt. you and i know that this is bullshit. these kinds of posts confuse everyone else and make them make the wrong decisions, which makes you and i money  Grin
1571  Economy / Speculation / Re: The rocket is secretly taking off. $8 price target within 18 hours on: January 10, 2012, 12:23:26 AM
i'm not really a person. im a cleverly devised forum bot meant to permabull and make incredibly accurate decisions pre-informed by the Manipulator so that i can single-handedly drive up prices again and again, solely for profit-taking.

then, of course, i will take over the world.

/troll
1572  Economy / Speculation / Re: The rocket is secretly taking off. $8 price target within 18 hours on: January 10, 2012, 12:11:38 AM
so has it been long enough to say this forum was wrong?  haha

+1 hahaha I love this

There are no rallies at this stage... it's all Pump and Dump now.

wtf really? one big sell and we forget about SEC and all of the other things that are going to reinforce this rally? i think the losses you guys took from the overcorrection since the bubble is clouding your judgment. it's like everybody on the forum suddenly took off their bull mask and all i see are dumb, hairy bears Tongue
1573  Economy / Speculation / Re: How deep you are ready to go? on: January 10, 2012, 12:02:42 AM
MUCH HIGHER
1574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why was there a spike up before the selloff? on: January 10, 2012, 12:01:06 AM
Resiliency.

This is what I find encouraging. This BTC price takes a beating but it still surges on.



i noted this in another thread. i have full confidence that we will not see prices lower than $6 before resuming the uptrend.
1575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bid Walls Melting on: January 09, 2012, 04:23:46 PM
I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

I wish I could feel your bullish optimism, and that we could rally past $7.20.

But these middle of the night dump offs have me thinking this is more of a Pump and Dump scenario.

maybe the giant leap to $7 was smart money manipulating the market for a pump and dump scheme, but what happened to all the talk about CES on Tuesday and the word 'Bitcoin' on people's TV when that show airs? stop being so moody Tongue the only thing that happened between today and last night was one giant dump. the market seems to be rebounding alright... the dump took us lower than $6 and the market absorbed it back into a healthy $6-$7 range, with 10k to $6 and almost 25k to $5.80. a correction was overdue anyway.
1576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bid Walls Melting on: January 09, 2012, 03:47:00 PM
I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.
1577  Economy / Speculation / Re: And today there is no buying on bitcoinica on: January 09, 2012, 03:30:30 PM
Quote
The asterisk - because Zhou on the party of players, also doesn't want to lose money...   Wink
THIS !!!!!!!!




it's funny because no one really understands when naima posts anyway... Tongue
1578  Economy / Speculation / Re: MTGox Live is not Live anymore on: January 09, 2012, 03:29:18 PM
is dead here again

yup. right in the middle of my swing trading. fucking piece of shit. is there any formal correspondence to the MtGox people telling them to get their god damned act together?
1579  Economy / Speculation / Re: And today there is no buying on bitcoinica on: January 09, 2012, 03:01:48 PM
Quote
The asterisk - because Zhou on the party of players, also doesn't want to lose money...   Wink
THIS !!!!!!!!

1580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Double bottom? on: January 09, 2012, 02:39:47 PM
got screwed by the fake rally (was holding some, bought some more at $7.xx), so when the dip happened last night I figured something like this would happen this morning. sold at $6.85, then scooped up a nice amount of cheap coins around $6.00! recouped all my losses and then some. think it's going back up?
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