in other words, you have no clue? good topic.

just a technical point, as the picture looks very bearish to me right now, too --

but we still haven't crossed over the $55 recent low. so we're a little higher up on the curve, but we're not going to see $130 (analogous to the small second peak) for awhile.

so much threadspamming

you are both total n00bs but holliday is right.

bitman, it's been trading within a range for a little more than 24h and you call stability? this is the calm before the storm. volatility ebbs and flows.

if the trend resumes, it was a (much needed) correction. if we move further down from here, it can safely be called a bubble.

down again. do the above fixes still work? anyone know what's going on besides friendly ddos?

you've gotta be proudhoning me

didn't 'change my mind'. i identified what i thought was a bearish pennant in the PVT, only realizing after i had drawn it (and posted it), that it was an ambiguous shape that might just be a smaller bull flag, as mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

yeah this is kind of silly data.

excuse my repetition, but remember: Bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

it's not a bulltrap until the downtrend resumes. this is just trading between a range (support at high 90s, resistance at 120).

in other words, you're not right. yet.

yeah -1 for needlessly graphic images. this isn't 4chan.

REDACTED DUE TO INCOMPLETE ANALYSIS

beautiful bull trap. clearly many of us are playing musical chairs though -- what is your target for the tipping point?

EDIT: bearish pennant confirmed by the PVT

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[image redacted]

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we're definitely near the tipping point. i think evolve was spot on with a call for a triple top at $130.

this. there are a lot of people here who are in full agreeance with the techniques i use, and ichthyo's and others' self-assigned role as protectors of the people from my 'voodoo techniques' are really the ones with the skewed models.

i see $180 as the more important resistance. it is the phi-retracement of 266-54, and also the top bound of the bear pennant that formed after the crash. i have my doubts that we'll make it there anytime soon, but once we do, breaking over this important resistance will be a very bullish sign and could signal a return to the underlying long-term uptrend.

first off, i appreciate the humble and honest critique. you make very good points. this i can respond positively to


i think this may be the sticking point. the predictive power of triangles comes after the first confirmation of decreasing volume. when the bounds converge, one can expect a certain kind of price movement.

triangles in general are not good prognosticators of direction, except in certain market contexts like in the case of the bearish pennant.

however, if volume is large in the candle after the convergence point, and one has information about trend direction from other sources, one can combine this information to either sell at the top of the bulltrap, or buy before it breaks the important resistance and makes significant gains (taking an upwards breakout, for example). timing is everything, and trading in a consolidating market makes little money. being prepared for when the market breaks out of consolidation mode is very useful, and triangles being consolidation patterns have that predictive power, at the very least.

wrong again. you seem to think this is not falsifiable. the triangle consolidation pattern necessarily exhibits decreasing volume. if volume increases during a similar pattern, it falsifies the hypothesis. also if volume spikes before the trend lines converge, it also falsifies the pattern.

you don't seem to understand that the patterns are the emergent effect of the actions of the people controlling the walls. patterns exist and form because when rational players play advantageous strategy sets in various proportions, this creates remarkably consistent patterns in the price data. no one would put a wall up in the middle of the consolidation because it is not advantageous.


and there were no after-the-fact drawing of lines. i posted a figure, the converging triangle, and predicted an imminent "breakout" -- defined strictly as move that passes the upper bound of the wide end of the triangle (which it did) that is accompanied with high volume. it seems like an awfully nice coincidence, at worst.

i defined a "breakout" in the same terms in my TA thread. there is no hindsight bias in effect here.

here's a follow up, so you don't complain about 'method and rigor':

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you can clearly see the tightening trading range, which is more about market consolidation than anything else (the bids and asks react to the tightening trading range, not the other way around).

the key identifying marker of a triangular consolidation pattern is the decreasing volume throughout, and then the sudden spike of volume which indicates the breakout, accompanied by a price movement outside of the tightening range. a movement beyond the channel bounded by the wide end of the triangle confirms the breakout.

the same words are in my thread about the bearish pennant. this is a very robust pattern.

too bad it pretty much directly predicted the breakout we're seeing just now. not confirmed bullish until we break the top of the channel, though ($130). Then we could go as high as $180 (phi-retracement of the original $266-$55 move) without another downward movement.

you don't even believe in triangles? i'm in the midst of composing a response in my other thread. i did explain the basic theory of why triangle formations occur in that OP.