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981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Free trading ends soon on Mt. Gox on: April 14, 2013, 03:27:05 AM
I suspect we'll see a sharp dip, as all those people waiting to sell at 100 say fuck it, and sell at market without fees.

Then a gradual rise as trading improves.

Then again.. Who knows might be the opposite. A sharp rise would cost less. I just figure a few people would want to jump boat but there's more people trying to scoop

in other words, you have no clue? good topic.
982  Economy / Speculation / Re: The coin is stable! Stop speculating and start spending! on: April 14, 2013, 02:55:41 AM


just a technical point, as the picture looks very bearish to me right now, too --

but we still haven't crossed over the $55 recent low. so we're a little higher up on the curve, but we're not going to see $130 (analogous to the small second peak) for awhile.
983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why bitcoin is going to succeed, The thread noone is talking about. on: April 14, 2013, 02:26:19 AM
so much threadspamming Undecided
984  Economy / Speculation / Re: The coin is stable! Stop speculating and start spending! on: April 14, 2013, 02:23:29 AM
I think market forces have finally found a stable price for the coin.

Over the next few weeks we'll probably see a slow climb, but it's not going to be anywhere near as dramatic as before.

This is great! The market has made its correction.

Now what will make all the difference long term is what happens in the actual bitcoin economy.

Time to stop speculating, hold your coins, and build the market.

Time to make bitcoin paypals worst nightmare!!

Sorry. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but nothing about Bitcoin will be stable for years to come.

I wish it could be different. I really do. But it can't.

you are both total n00bs but holliday is right.

bitman, it's been trading within a range for a little more than 24h and you call stability? this is the calm before the storm. volatility ebbs and flows.
985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Cause of the crash - was it bitcoinbillionaire? on: April 14, 2013, 02:21:36 AM
I agree with several posters above. I would hardly call it a crash, but a market correction, induced by a bad trading system. It is even ongoing as we speak!

if the trend resumes, it was a (much needed) correction. if we move further down from here, it can safely be called a bubble.
986  Economy / Speculation / Re: btccharts.com are you freacking serious ???? on: April 14, 2013, 02:13:04 AM
down again. do the above fixes still work? anyone know what's going on besides friendly ddos?
987  Economy / Speculation / Re: The single digits believers thread on: April 13, 2013, 11:03:56 PM
I don't "believe" in single digits since I realize everything is just a chance.

Single digits are a strong possibility now, hell even fractional digits are possible.

you've gotta be proudhoning me Tongue
988  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 13, 2013, 10:56:35 PM
Changed your mind arepo ? What was wrong with your analysis ?

lucif, how do you distinguish today's activity between your bearish flag and a bullish pennant (from the $50 low) ?


didn't 'change my mind'. i identified what i thought was a bearish pennant in the PVT, only realizing after i had drawn it (and posted it), that it was an ambiguous shape that might just be a smaller bull flag, as mentioned elsewhere in this thread.
989  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin more popular than USD on Google trends on: April 13, 2013, 10:48:12 PM
yeah this is kind of silly data.
990  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 13, 2013, 10:38:10 PM
now coins are cheap

excuse my repetition, but remember: Bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.
991  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox "Cooling Off" again. on: April 13, 2013, 10:28:46 PM
Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

it's not a bulltrap until the downtrend resumes. this is just trading between a range (support at high 90s, resistance at 120).

in other words, you're not right. yet.
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Epic bear trap in the making? on: April 13, 2013, 09:54:46 AM
yeah -1 for needlessly graphic images. this isn't 4chan.
993  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 13, 2013, 09:35:20 AM
REDACTED DUE TO INCOMPLETE ANALYSIS

beautiful bull trap. clearly many of us are playing musical chairs though -- what is your target for the tipping point?

EDIT: bearish pennant confirmed by the PVT

-===-

[image redacted]

-===-

we're definitely near the tipping point. i think evolve was spot on with a call for a triple top at $130.
994  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 09:34:17 AM
The symmetrical triangle is as well recognized and predictive as the bubble chart, if not more so. It is not a lagging indicator.

this. there are a lot of people here who are in full agreeance with the techniques i use, and ichthyo's and others' self-assigned role as protectors of the people from my 'voodoo techniques' are really the ones with the skewed models.
995  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 13, 2013, 09:26:32 AM
(266 + 54)/2 ≈  160 - it should bounce at least to this level.  But maybe we should use a log scale here?

i see $180 as the more important resistance. it is the phi-retracement of 266-54, and also the top bound of the bear pennant that formed after the crash. i have my doubts that we'll make it there anytime soon, but once we do, breaking over this important resistance will be a very bullish sign and could signal a return to the underlying long-term uptrend.
996  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 09:23:28 AM
first off, i appreciate the humble and honest critique. you make very good points. this i can respond positively to Smiley


This has the consequence that the triangle in the configuration pointed out only exists after the fact, when the confirmation is there. And as such, it is a superfluous theoretical construct, since we don't need a triangle to deduct a move up or down, when we even need to identify that movement in order to allow the triangle to exist.


i think this may be the sticking point. the predictive power of triangles comes after the first confirmation of decreasing volume. when the bounds converge, one can expect a certain kind of price movement.

triangles in general are not good prognosticators of direction, except in certain market contexts like in the case of the bearish pennant.

however, if volume is large in the candle after the convergence point, and one has information about trend direction from other sources, one can combine this information to either sell at the top of the bulltrap, or buy before it breaks the important resistance and makes significant gains (taking an upwards breakout, for example). timing is everything, and trading in a consolidating market makes little money. being prepared for when the market breaks out of consolidation mode is very useful, and triangles being consolidation patterns have that predictive power, at the very least.
997  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 08:13:31 AM

The volume decreases until it increases again. The movement up is confirmed by movement up, unless there is movement down.
And so on.
It is really surprising that you guys talk so much about patterns and don't notice the pattern in your own reasoning. ;-)


The triangle we are looking at could have looked quite different, when the person controlling the bid wall had pulled it in the middle, at the point when the oscillation went down and someone sold a bit into that bid wall. In that case, you would see a different shape after the fact and thus draw different lines and constitute a different "channel" for your "confirmation".


wrong again. you seem to think this is not falsifiable. the triangle consolidation pattern necessarily exhibits decreasing volume. if volume increases during a similar pattern, it falsifies the hypothesis. also if volume spikes before the trend lines converge, it also falsifies the pattern.

you don't seem to understand that the patterns are the emergent effect of the actions of the people controlling the walls. patterns exist and form because when rational players play advantageous strategy sets in various proportions, this creates remarkably consistent patterns in the price data. no one would put a wall up in the middle of the consolidation because it is not advantageous.


and there were no after-the-fact drawing of lines. i posted a figure, the converging triangle, and predicted an imminent "breakout" -- defined strictly as move that passes the upper bound of the wide end of the triangle (which it did) that is accompanied with high volume. it seems like an awfully nice coincidence, at worst.

i defined a "breakout" in the same terms in my TA thread. there is no hindsight bias in effect here.
998  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 07:40:44 AM
you don't even believe in triangles?

I don't believe in things just because I see them.

here's a follow up, so you don't complain about 'method and rigor':

-===-



-===-

you can clearly see the tightening trading range, which is more about market consolidation than anything else (the bids and asks react to the tightening trading range, not the other way around).

the key identifying marker of a triangular consolidation pattern is the decreasing volume throughout, and then the sudden spike of volume which indicates the breakout, accompanied by a price movement outside of the tightening range. a movement beyond the channel bounded by the wide end of the triangle confirms the breakout.

the same words are in my thread about the bearish pennant. this is a very robust pattern.
999  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 07:32:02 AM


-===-

pretty significant triangle consolidation closing right now. break up or down?

you don't even believe in triangles?

too bad it pretty much directly predicted the breakout we're seeing just now. not confirmed bullish until we break the top of the channel, though ($130). Then we could go as high as $180 (phi-retracement of the original $266-$55 move) without another downward movement.
1000  Economy / Speculation / Re: bulls versus bears! on: April 13, 2013, 07:21:45 AM
we have walls at 108 and 113. These were moved inward, narrowing the channel.
The bid wall is larger, but this is irrelevant, since any of these walls could just be pulled or moved.

you don't even believe in triangles? i'm in the midst of composing a response in my other thread. i did explain the basic theory of why triangle formations occur in that OP.
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