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961  Economy / Speculation / Re: :( on: April 16, 2013, 06:57:12 AM
Really? I blamed the perfect storm.

me too.

block reward halving (price approximately doubles from $6 - $12),

bitcoin userbase growing (thanks to announcements like wordpress, etc) ($12 - ATH)

people speculating on the above, (ATH - $100),

reddit announces accepting bitcoin for reddit gold ($100 - $150)

people speculating on the above ($100 - bubble and crash)


oh, and don't forget the magnitude of the deflation effect, which has been incentivizing a serious market correction ever since we first pushed past the peak of the pirate bubble.

i'll see you guys in single digits  Tongue Tongue Tongue

jk, maybe $10, but still... sucks for all you 'trend followers'. 14 straight weeks of green candles = completely unprecedented overextension of the price.

im not 'just saying this' either. not only did i project this as a likely outcome of runaway deflation in the thread linked above posted on 10 Feb (that was the whole point of that thread, and i got sooooo much hate), but I've been a proud bear since around  that time ($13) and i have no regrets that i didn't mess around with this completely irresponsible exuberance.
962  Economy / Speculation / Re: "New Paradigm!!" = $266 on: April 16, 2013, 06:40:31 AM
There's gotta be someone out there who bought back at the top of the original bubble, then sold at $2, then bought at $266. Oh hitler.

xD poor guy... i hope he has the resolve (and funds) to keep trying -- he's lining everyone else's pockets!  Grin
963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Remember the exponential run-up on: April 14, 2013, 09:09:45 PM
This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis.

this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted.
964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anything fundamentally changed? on: April 14, 2013, 09:09:04 PM
So strange to see something dropping dramatically in price without any foundamental having changed. Just as if it was... a bubble? Oh no, that can't be...

QFT
965  Economy / Speculation / Re: The "bears" here are really bulls on: April 14, 2013, 08:43:04 PM
BULLS ARE BEARS IN BULL CLOTHING ACTING LIKE BEARS PRETENDING TO BE BULLS

seriously, this is silly. even if you are a 'long-term bull' and you're waiting to enter at a lower price, it means you think you will be able to enter at a lower price. if you believe bitcoin is presently overvalued, and you believe others believe this as well, then you believe that the price is going down.

therefore being a bear is simply believing that bitcoins are overvalued. it's not complicated.
966  Economy / Speculation / Re: [POLL] You think there will be a final top? on: April 14, 2013, 08:37:23 PM
We may not get back to 266 immediately but this 100 is under-priced right now IMO.

I predict a swift upward "correction" this week, a little volatility after the correction, and a steady incline to new highs in a month or two.

and what is this prediction based upon? my analysis calls $100 quite overpriced for at least weeks.
967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Secret Monster Wedge? on: April 14, 2013, 08:31:59 PM
your trendlines are off. remember, two points define a line, so you need at least two supports. the top line on the "monster wedge" has only 2 pt of contact and is therefore rather arbitrary. 'real' triangle consolidation also necessarily exhibits decreasing volume. what actually is going on is two small bearish pennants, or one large one -- depending on the scale:

-===-





-===-

these triangles are easy to spot because of the consistently decreasing volume. the second chart shows a clear, large bearish pennant, often known as a classic 'bulltrap'. get ready for a breakout downward, it has just begun.

i expect to break under $90 before the end of the day, and then down from there.

(while i was making up those charts, i was afraid the price would drop faster than i could publicly make the prediction! Cheesy )
968  Economy / Speculation / Re: knock knock on: April 14, 2013, 08:04:35 PM
i see what you did there. good luck. we're going down, it's already begun. if we break under $90 it's all over.
969  Economy / Speculation / Re: knock knock on: April 14, 2013, 11:58:12 AM
If I were a big fish hoping for enough liquidity to get out I'd be so relieved right now.  Cheesy

the orderbook was fat then. it's thinning dramatically now. the tides are changing and the range is tightening...





Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
The Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.
970  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC! on: April 14, 2013, 11:53:17 AM
I really can't read these details at all. I can't read any word except "PANIC". I will sincerely apologize if it's really my problem

i can't be sure, but based on the other responses in this thread, it's probably an image display setting in your browser.

no need to apologize Cheesy
971  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC! on: April 14, 2013, 10:07:20 AM
As you can read it just fine, I suppose you can read the x- and y-axis, right?

the bars at the very bottom are simply volume. the units are on the far left of the graph which is not visible. i tried to make the chart "forum-post sized" because larger charts tend not to nest well with text.

the y-axis is easily legible and is price in USD.

the x-axis is time. if you look in the top left corner of the image, it reads the ticker data source (MtGox) the label for the y axis (USD), and the time interval for the candles (15m).

i apologize if it was at all ambiguous Wink
972  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC! on: April 14, 2013, 09:59:04 AM
Though I don't agree with OP's statement.  BTC has fallen to 98 since this post, so much for sideways.

I guess i was too subtle. according to my figures, this is the opening moves for the large breakout from two nested bearish formations. many have been calling bulltrap and i agree, and i think we shall see some action quite soon. $98 is just the beginning.
973  Economy / Speculation / knock knock on: April 14, 2013, 09:55:35 AM


who's there?

BULL

bull who?

bullTRAP.
974  Economy / Speculation / Re: PANIC! on: April 14, 2013, 09:32:42 AM
Why your graphs are always so small and unreadable at all?

you've said this before. i still don't understand what you mean. what are you trying to determine that is unclear?
975  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mtgox claim officially turned bitcoin into Ponzi on: April 14, 2013, 09:27:30 AM
someone needs to delete this post... it is a bald assertion that is false to anyone's knowledge.

i understand we all hate mt gox but accusations like this are serious, and crying wolf on legitimate business just helps real ponzis battle rumors.
976  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox "Cooling Off" again. on: April 14, 2013, 09:17:37 AM
Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

the bulltrap hasn't even yet begun. first, we break $90, then we break $50.
977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction for this coming week, BTC to $150 by Friday 19-04-2013 on: April 14, 2013, 09:10:03 AM
Why else? Because "buy bitcoins" search volume is the highest it's ever been, peaking Friday and Saturday:




this is not true. it peaked Thursday, April 11. please only post claims you yourself have verified...
978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 14, 2013, 09:03:09 AM
I see gox banning accounts ...

citation?

also, it's just beginning. breakout of a smaller bearish wedge ...



... on the micro-term, and the larger bearish pennant forming the bulltrap. these two patterns coincide. first, through the $90 floor of the smaller triangle, then picking up speed through the $55 floor of the pennant.

checkmate, bulls.

979  Economy / Speculation / Re: The coin is stable! Stop speculating and start spending! on: April 14, 2013, 08:28:58 AM


+1. i think xkcd is hilarious. you might even call me a ...



BIG FAN
980  Economy / Speculation / PANIC! on: April 14, 2013, 07:50:54 AM


-===-

BEARISH WEDGE WITH EARLY SIGNS OF A DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT!

...

...

...

...

nevermind, im only joking Grin bitcoin will trade sideways and then go to the moon again. i am trolling and this is FUD.
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