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1121  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 17, 2013, 03:17:15 AM
everyone buying BTC become rich
everyone CANNOT become rich.
While your bold statement is correct, it is entirely possible for everyone that reads this forum regularly at this point in time can become rich.  There are a lot more people who haven't even heard of bitcoin yet.

this is true. i concede to this point as well. the post i quoted did not make that important distinction, though.
1122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price holding super-steady: launchpad formation or thin ice? on: February 17, 2013, 03:04:40 AM
i've been saying reversal since before the knife. the knife was the signal. ice seems pretty thin to me...

on the 6-HR scale:

-- bearish MACD crossover
-- Mass Index falling rapidly, meaning we're in reversal territory
-- double top in the upper range of the DPO, ripe for a downside correction.



-=====-

as for the tight trading range, it's just the market consolidating after the last big move, trying to make up its mind if it's 'ready' to correct yet.
1123  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 17, 2013, 03:02:20 AM
Everyone who wrests control of their money back from the banksters are richer for it. So is society.  Tongue

that is profound. i concede Wink
1124  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: February 17, 2013, 02:55:21 AM
i would expect a moderator to take discussion more seriously than this.

That's because your mind naturally appeals to authority and you haven't yet learned to restrain that appeal and listen to logic, reason and empirical evidence above else instead.

i would think it's rather because i would expect any poster, at all, to take this discussion more seriously. but having been shouted down and flamed for alternatively beating a dead horse and hating bitcoin, i've lost a little faith in the spirit of open discussion that moderators like yourself try to encourage.

Quote
Believe it or not the issues you raised have been raised so many times already that I seriously doubt you bring anything new to the table and even if you do, you are wrong. Not from an economical perspective but from a technological and philosophical perspective. In case you didn't notice even if you have a valid concern and a valid proposal, Bitcoin's rules can't be changed. So if you think it has a flaw I suggest you take the open source code, modify it and start your own alt cryptocurrency: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=67.0 Because other than that no matter what you say or how much sense you make, for better or for worse, Bitcoin is what Bitcoin is. Take it or leave it. It's up to you.

again, it's not about the fundamentals of the bitcoin protocol, OR any fundamental problem with deflationary currency. try again:

this is going to lead perhaps not to a bubble as it did before, but a massive deflationary event that pushes the purchasing power of bitcoin far above its track for healthy growth (see the height above the SMAs that the price is at right now) and will inevitably lead to massive profit-taking, predatory speculation, and price volatility. many new investors who thought they were going to be rich will find themselves in the same position as those who bought coins at $30. the growth of the userbase is good and should be encouraged not by predatory speculative behavior where earlier adopters laugh as the new users line their pockets, but lower-risk lower-price-point profit-taking that won't introduce massive volatility into the market. the former will help the bitcoin community grow in the long run. the latter will hurt the adoption of btc in the short run.

in other words, it's short-sighted and introduces systemic risk into the community. this is an example of a nash equilibrium that leaves players worse off than if they played in a pre-coordinated manner, like the Prisoner's Dilemma. everyone would be better off if the price of the coins were growing but with less risk of suddenly crashing. at this point purchasing coins is again a very high-risk investment because users have decided to distribute risk amongst the entire userbase while they continue to play musical chairs.

it's about bad behavior. we all agree that ponzi schemes are bad behavior. why is it so difficult to see why this, too, has a negative impact on the adoption of bitcoin? this is all i've been trying to say this entire thread.

1125  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 17, 2013, 02:45:59 AM
everyone buying BTC become rich

is there free candy and infinite energy, too?

this is such a joke. trading is zero-sum. everyone CANNOT become rich.

still following? take the bulls out of your ears. everyone cannot become rich.

okay, good. hopefully i've gotten to a few of you finally.
1126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Technical analysis is total bunk. on: February 17, 2013, 02:43:37 AM
Quite easily...

and the award for completely sidestepping valid points goes to........

you. not me. Tongue

hint: how many algebraic terms do you think one would need to construct a polynomial function that estimates price?
1127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver oz price dipping to $29.70 and Bitcoin hitting $27.50, gap closing fast on: February 17, 2013, 02:41:22 AM
Now, in Feb 2013, it is likely to achieve that milestone. If the fundamentals remain strong it will stay there.

unless we bubble up, this is unlikely. all indicators now point to a reversal. it may not happen, but it is probable.

i'm still a long-term bull, though. i'd be surprised if the all-time high wasn't broken in 2013.
1128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Technical analysis is total bunk. on: February 17, 2013, 02:25:29 AM
ahhh i was waiting for this thread...

The squiggly lines only tell you what has happened, not what's going to happen.

you're quite wrong. read on.

Quote from: tripper22
Avoid [TA subscriptions] and save your money / bitcoins.

this i can agree with because of the conflict of interest between making truthful calls and leading lemmings for personal profit.

Quote from: tripper22
PRICE and only PRICE should dictate your actions as a trader.

this shows how inexperienced of a 'trader' you are. volume is just as important, as are price momentum and moving averages and plenty of other pieces of data to lesser extents.

I think there is some legitimacy in it, in that it gives you a mathematical framework with which to analyze the market. It's not perfect and you'd be foolish to rely on it alone, but it does give some insight into price and volume fluctuations that price data alone cannot give.

+1

Of course you'd need to look on the volume and the temporal pattern as well as on the price.
But isn't that just common sense? Do we really need formulas and graphs to arrive at such a basic insight??

can you visualize the derivative of f(x) = x^3 +2x^2 + 1? of course not.

but we know mathematically that it is f'(x) = 3x^2 + 4x. and we can graph this. and then we can visualize it.

price is a very, very complex function and graphs are extremely useful at visualizing the relationship between different sets of data.

you would be 110% correct if it werent for one important oversight: self fulfilling prophecy.

while this does come into play, TA works even without this mechanism.

how? you might ask.

technical analysis in general is just applied calculus. as a rule the momentum of the price changes before the price does. this is equivalent to saying that the derivative of an increasing function begins decreasing before the function itself does, and vice versa (which answers the question of how can past performance 'predict' future results).

in other words, get your heads out of your asses. you don't need to understand stochastic calculus to understand TA (most algorithms are algebraic transforms of price and volume), so go to chart school and stop shitting on our parade.
1129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reversal! on: February 17, 2013, 02:00:54 AM
stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity Tongue

1130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Reversal! on: February 16, 2013, 09:07:57 AM
we're seeing major consolidation on both the 2-HR and 6-HR scales... expect a big breakout soon which will either mark the beginning of a mid-term downtrend or invalidate the reversal signal.


1131  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin's first major deflation event, and its consequences on: February 16, 2013, 09:03:10 AM
Oh how I yearn for the day far in the future when all of you with sophistry infatuated people will get your meeting with the cold hard reality and when this "Deflation is bad, mkay?!" idiocy will have been destroyed once and for all much like "Earth is the center of the universe, mkay?!" once upon a time was.

i would expect a moderator to take discussion more seriously than this. i tried to address your point and present a more nuanced argument than 'deflation is bad'. in fact, i would easily disagree with that statement myself. look! we're in agreement!

if you actually took the time to read past the OP, you'd see i fear the long squeezes associated with too-fast growth driven by the new masses of uninformed speculators, not deflation.

you might as well be a republican screaming about how i hate america.
1132  Economy / Speculation / Re: bubble or bulltrap? on: February 16, 2013, 08:59:32 AM
i try to post my analysis publicly, free of charge, because i don't intend to be a shepherd of lemmings, but rather a purveyor of information. subscription-analyses suffer from numerous conflicts of interest.

as such, if anyone benefitted from my early warnings and profited from shorting the knife, or increased their btc holdings on the way back up, please contribute and i will continue to provide my analysis publicly on the forums. i do put a lot of work into it, and i've been getting a lot of backlash from the rampant bullish sentiments here. it would be nice to know that my voice is heard and appreciated.

--the bear bitcointalk deserves
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
1133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulation to induce panic. on: February 16, 2013, 08:51:37 AM
Don't ignore all the good press looking too hard at indicators. Good way to get first degree burns.

good press that gets priced in affects the charts. good press that doesn't get priced in doesn't affect the price.

the better advice would be not to get worked up about good press because we don't really know how it will affect the price, and is an unreliable trading indicator.

hint: the 'wordpress rally' started before the actual announcement.
1134  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 16, 2013, 08:46:49 AM
Yes, I do think people who buy with only plans to sell later are bad.  I think people who tell others to buy buy buy! with terrible charts are also bad (op here could actually be included). I also think it's all the bears posting terrible charts that hurt bitcoin. What evidence do you have that it's a *gag* monetary influx into old wallets besides you having sold already?

I do think that the majority of this price increase is due to the halving finally taking effect (I never believed the "priced in" arguments), wider adoption, and all the good good news.  I do think bitcoin is still terribly undervalued for what it can do.  I think that there are plenty of people who have way more bitcoin than they know what to do with due to the imbalanced distribution to early adopters but with each dump it goes to people who have more interest in bitcoin succeeding.

I just see you posting doom and gloom for no reason out side of being mad for some reason.  The price is going up, so what? Why does that instantly mean bubble and crash and oh no bitcoin iz dead?

evidence for new money into old wallets: "buy bitcoins" google trends.

the halving argument is ridiculous. the inflation rate halved, not the god damned supply. there is a huge difference here.

bitcoin is undervalued for what it can do, but speedy growth is not sustainable for reasons that should be clear to any speculator.

i'm posting doom and gloom not because i have sold but because i feel that we are reaching the price-point for many big fish to take profit. this introduces volatility and uncertainty in the exchange rate which will hamper bitcoin's adoption and growth in the mid-term.

it doesn't instantly mean bubble and crash, although many bubble and crash indicators are going off. do you even read my posts?
1135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Four hours to a new record price! on: February 16, 2013, 01:39:50 AM
[snip]
It seems I was mistaken!

no thats pretty much right. im just saying the same effect where a positive feedback loop causes the multiplication of a move due to traders being forced to cover their positions (automatically or voluntarily) can happen without leverage.
1136  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 15, 2013, 10:49:37 PM
then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.

Why are you so maaaaaaaad?

i guess i should have expected another bubble. but i'm mad because this is worse than just early adopters surprised that suddenly their pockets are being lined. this is market manipulation and predatory speculation at its finest and only the newest bitcoin users are going to get burned. it seems the people here are just interested in getting rich, and don't care about the growth or long-term success of the project. we promote adoption, but now i realize that it's just to keep up the monetary influx into old wallets.
1137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulation to induce panic. on: February 15, 2013, 10:38:04 PM
Also, if you could draw some more arbitrary lines on one indicator to make your case, that would be great. Thanks bro.

this

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.

also, the ROC is not arbitrary and so trends therein ('my' lines) are also not.

ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100

ROC tracks price momentum. it is an indisputable fact that this has been decreasing since the knife.

further, as your bullish sentiment and confirmation bias clearly leads you to ignore any bearish analysis that appears on the forum, i should call your attention to this thread where i used multiple indicators to predict the knife, and this thread which contains the basis of the argument i presented here, complete with many more indicators. if i reposted my entire analysis every post i made, no one would have a good time.

but keep making yourself feel better by dismissing every indicator i post as "just one indicator" though, it'll make sure you're the one left holding the bag.
1138  Economy / Speculation / Re: if you're not buying on: February 15, 2013, 10:29:20 PM
then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.
1139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Four hours to a new record price! on: February 15, 2013, 10:26:28 PM
you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze
No such thing, unless you know of a BTC exchange that supports margin trading. (In which case, being out of USD wouldn't be keeping theymos from buying!)

you don't need leverage for a squeeze to happen, leveraging just magnifies the effect. follow me here: "Everyone can't get rich". this is a zero-sum game. if everyone is out of usd, the price will stall and someone will get spooked. some profit-taking will happen and the coins will move to 'stronger' hands. unless the buying pressure is strong, the price will settle at a lower point. long squeeze.
1140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Four hours to a new record price! on: February 15, 2013, 09:59:54 PM
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD. Sad

you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeeze

Dude, why are you so mad that you sold too early while the rest of us didn't?

i sold when the price hit a specific price-point beyond which the risk of holding btc was greater than i was comfortable with. everyone can't be rich. are you that confident in your skills at musical chairs? when this bubble finally does pop, i'm sure there will be people with gains smaller than mine who continued to hold past when i sold.
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