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941  Economy / Speculation / Re: will asic's kill bitcoin ? on: April 17, 2013, 08:16:27 AM
the main misconception here is that the total hashing power of the network corresponds with how quickly bitcoins are mined.

the difficulty adjust with the size of the mining pool so that one block is found and one block reward is produced approximately every 10 minutes. if the number of people mining doubles tomorrow, the difficulty will adjust and the rate of bitcoin creation remains mostly unaffected.
942  Economy / Gambling / satoshidice and blockchain congestion on: April 17, 2013, 08:12:16 AM
my bet, which included the 5 mbtc fee, has 12 confirmations now and still no response. this is the longest i've ever had to wait. has any else had similar problems recently?

what worries me is that i can find the tx on blockchain.info, but it doesn't show up on sdice's own 'lookup' page. what can i do?
943  Economy / Speculation / Re: So, everyone knows about Bitcoin now... why isn't the price going up? on: April 17, 2013, 07:16:16 AM


-===-



944  Economy / Speculation / Re: fear not, bulls! on: April 17, 2013, 07:01:38 AM




update:

-===-



-===-

after a brief few moments of uncertainty, it seems the support is actually holding. this is very bullish short-term.
945  Economy / Speculation / Re: fear not, bulls! on: April 17, 2013, 06:11:46 AM
dunno eveything seems to be negative... MACD, EMA (10/21), Slow Stoch...  (Warning I am a noob just learning, do NOT make any financial actions based on this)

Too rich of a bet for my blood with the info we have.

mid-term is kind of grim although (don't tell anyone) i think we may have found a bottom already...

short-term is definitely very oversold.
946  Economy / Speculation / Re: fear not, bulls! on: April 16, 2013, 07:40:56 PM
keeping the wedge in mind...



-===-

...


the question is, very simply, whether the support will hold:



-===-

and before anything else is said, i know it is unconventional to apply these methods to such a small scale, but i do believe that price has an inherent fractal pattern and that triangles do form but are sometimes, or often, simply outweighed by noise in the candles.

947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: April 16, 2013, 07:35:35 PM
$50 is where the shelf is at. it was a tough resistance to break through on the way up, too.
948  Economy / Speculation / Re: 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 07:32:19 PM

Just want to thank you for your posts... coming to really respect them.


i really appreciate that Smiley

i had some thoughts of doing a subscription-type service, or (because i can't stand the esotericism) post a weekly analysis for a bounty, if there is demand for such a thing. unfortunately, i cannot really post price targets in public analyses because of the anti-inductive nature of the market, but i can do general analysis for short-, mid-, and long-term projections. i recently sold some price targets during the 24 hour feeless gox session, to user Wobber, and the strategy produced 30% returns from the initial push from $90 - $120. if anyone else is interested in this, feel free to pm me.

and as always, i will continue to post what i have in the past -- comments on current market conditions through the lens of my home-grown physics model. this i can continue free for the forum's benefit, and as always, if you profit from me, please help keep it free! Wink

-arepo
949  Economy / Speculation / Re: 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 07:24:31 PM
So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash, along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post. warning: awesome fractal nesting!

Just to let you know, I thought your OP was perfect...  Simple explanation with enough detail to see in the graph.

I am just starting to pick up reading EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI... well at least those are the bitcoinchart indicators I am using.  Understood most of it relating to the graph, but I just know this line should be above that line, and above 0 etc etc...


there are some deeper intuitive rationales that are mostly untested hypotheses, but indicators are designed to be able to be used mechanically like that, as long as you pick a winning strategy. sometimes the intuitive rationale helps recognize the degenerate cases -- ie in those cases (which there always will be) that the indicators do not correlate with the strictly mechanical rules, and heuristic deviation from the formula can be profitable.

i tried to offer some thorough insight in the first link you quoted above. it's light on charts and deep on explanation. i am a physics major and so i use a physics-based model for price, and i like to use physics analogies to understand seemingly analogous phenomena in the bitcoin price function. if you're familiar with high school physics and calculus, it could really help.

--arepo
950  Economy / Speculation / Re: fear not, bulls! on: April 16, 2013, 07:23:31 PM
too small interval for wedge imo

it is quite small, and accuracy suffers with granularity, but these patterns are theoretically fractal in nature, and should occur on any scale of the price function, within practical limits.

--arepo
951  Economy / Speculation / fear not, bulls! on: April 16, 2013, 07:15:40 PM
so it seems many bulls still have their fingers in their ears, but --

as long as you know we're just playing musical chairs, and you are comfortable with that, let's take a look at the picture:



just a small correction to the new trend. the bullish wedge formation forms as a consolidation pattern in a bull run, where the market drops slowly on low volume to find the support.

how high are we going, everyone?
952  Economy / Speculation / Re: 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 06:35:36 PM
So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash, along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post. warning: awesome fractal nesting!
953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Zangelbert's Bubble-o-Meter on: April 16, 2013, 03:19:27 PM

clearly you guys are incorrect
[size=16]so the answer to the formula is [/size]][/font](5%5-5%)%[color]/]

it is self evident in this ch[size=18]a[/szie][size= 22pt]rt[/size]



BTCBTCBTC
954  Economy / Speculation / Re: :( on: April 16, 2013, 03:08:18 PM
really cheap coins

that's what people said last week during the consolidation at $100, too.

They were right then, and they are right now.

your statements are not scale-invariant. NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY if the price goes up $3 in the next five minutes?

it was the wrong call on the short-term. if i understand correctly, you're a permabull who through selective memory is now shifting the goalposts to the long-term in order to alleviate stress and responsibility.
955  Economy / Speculation / none on: April 16, 2013, 02:38:25 PM
Quote
Why on earth would you buy now?

because there are people like you asking this question, but no one seems to be selling...
956  Economy / Speculation / Re: 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 02:34:15 PM
I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THOSE GRAPHS MEAN.

it's intuitive, but overwhelming at first.

the labels at the top should help a bit:

1 and 3 are simple oscillators

oscillators like the RSI and the Money Flow Index are mathematical functions that transform price and volume data into a value that oscillates between bounds like 0 and 100.

high values mean that the general 'cumulative' direction and volume have been bullish. oscillators are useful because they identify when something like bitcoin has been "too bullish too long" or vice-versa. bull markets need to correct down, and bear markets need to correct up. lots o' red means we're 'overbought', or that the price of bitcoin is 'too high'.

2 is a moving-average based oscillator

a moving average is an average of, for instance the "last seven days". this helps smooth out the price data. the MACD is an oscillator as well, then moves from the positive to the negative zones of the graph, which tracks something like the 'momentum' of price.

4 is a directional index plus a momentum oscillator

on the Average Direction Index, there is a blue 'price momentum' line that is similar to the MACD, along with 'direction indicators', which reflect how recently we made new highs and lows. when the GREEN indicator is above the RED, that generally means that we have made new highs more recently than new lows.

-===-

you should pick one of these and really get to know it. i would suggest the MACD. further reading can be found here. don't try to familiarize yourself all at once with all four, unless you really want a crash course, as they are very different types of indicators.

hope any of this was helpful  Smiley

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
957  Economy / Speculation / Re: 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 11:10:14 AM
FOLLOW-UP:

we're presently seeing some slight bullish action that was forecast by the above FIG 4 (bottom). The inflection (peaking) of the RED directional index in the ADX with a divergent BLUE momentum line indicates a correcting downward trend. i do not expect this to last long, 24 hours or less. we may retrace significantly, but not past $100, and the downtrend will resume thereafter.
958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price rise after the weekend? on: April 16, 2013, 08:18:37 AM

Keep praying to the bitcoin bear gods.

The new interest into bitcoin will only propell the price higher.


smoothie, i hope you're having fun trolling, because you're also simultaneously making a massive fool of yourself.
959  Economy / Speculation / 6-hour forecast on: April 16, 2013, 07:45:32 AM
breaking the support at $50 is imminent.

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SCALE:

1 and 3 are simple oscillators

2 is a moving-average based oscillator

4 is a directional index plus a momentum oscillator

-===-



-===-

1. RSI is no longer overbought, and is resting comfortably in the lower (bearish) zone, but i highly suspect the market will over-correct for all that red, red exuberance with at least a little more blue. until we spend significant time in the oversold region, i would not be comfortable holding coins.

2. remember when the daily MACD (blue) bounced off the EXP (purple) on the way up from $100? that was very bullish. the inflection here is just the opposite.

3. Money Flow Index has not even yet dipped into oversold territory to compensate for its own red, red exuberance. the mid-line ("50") bounce corresponding to the failure of the $100 support is an extremely bearish indicator here.

4. accelerating momentum line (blue) on the ADX, is paired for the first time in over a month with a red-above-green bear market indicator. (the two other times this month we had red-above-green, the momentum line was decreasing. these events correspond with corrections, not market reversals).


thank you for your time.

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
960  Economy / Speculation / Re: :( on: April 16, 2013, 06:59:06 AM
really cheap coins

that's what people said last week during the consolidation at $100, too.
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